A Lesson In Patience: Brad Lidge, Jonathan Broxton And The Settled Market
Brad Lidge was available for $1 million. One million. It's enough to make every other team other than the Washington Nationals shake their heads. And if it doesn't, then it definitely should.
Let's compare two deals. Lidge just signed for one-year at $1 million with the Nats. The Kansas City Royals struck a deal with Jonathan Broxton for one year at $4 million. To keep things quite simple, the mathematical equation would read: Brad Lidge x 4 = Jonathan Broxton.
Two dominant relievers over the last few seasons in the National League. Two pitchers coming off of seasons riddled and ruined by injuries. Both are similar projects hoping to bounce back with one-year deals before hitting the market for another big closer-type of payday. One just happened to cost four times than the other.
Now, that's not to fault the Royals. They struck early and that's what the market dictated at that time. You could argue that the Royals should have waited, but they didn't and Broxton should be a fine addition to the pen that could use another veteran arm with the loss of Aaron Crow to the starting rotation. Plus a young pen that was overburdened last season will undoubtedly find some arms that fail to realize last season's success.
So this isn't so much a slight on the Royals signing of Broxton as it an object lesson in the beauty of waiting. Every year there are numerous veterans waiting on the late minute call before spring training as agents work the phones to get their guys into camp with someone. Lidge was one such guy and settled for another NL East destination for a middle relief spot at a cool million.
R.J. Anderson writes about Lidge's predicament and asks, "Did anyone, anyone at all, realize that Lidge’s earned run average over the past two seasons sits at 2.49? Probably not, and for good reason: Lidge missed most of the 2011 season with a shoulder strain. Upon return, Lidge brought his usual strikeout rates (albeit with an extra helping of walks) but lacked his trademark velocity. Instead, his average fastball sat below 90 miles per hour, which sent his slider usage through the roof."
Perhaps Broxton exhibited better health than Lidge. At the very least, however, Lidge did come back at season's end to show positive contributions from the pen. That's something Broxton cannot claim.
The saying reads, "The best things come to those who wait." Fan bases and some front offices are ruled by impatience. Local sports media are all over their teams to make a move -- now! -- in the name of fixing last season's problems. But here lies yet another example of letting a market settle before filling a hole. A decent bet could be made on Lidge being one of the best bargains on the market by the end of 2012.
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1/27 Royals News: Spring Training Invites, Frank White Moves On, Francoeur and Ryan Lef.
Also, lots of good baseball discussion, including Lookout Landing with a look at a failed prospect, Braves and Marlns talk, and a look at the White Sox farm system.
- Four Royals named to Top 100 Prospects list | royals.com: News
- Royals invite 16 players to Spring Training | royals.com: News
- T-Bones hire Frank White - KansasCity.com
- Royally Speaking: Single Season Home Run Leaders Since 2004
- 40 Man Roster Review – Jeff Francoeur - Royals Authority
- Ryan LeFebvfre on Ryan LeFebvre’s next partner " mindahaas.net
- Will Hosmer's Walk Rate Limit His Upside? - Royals Review
Baseball:
2 years, 2 months and 22 days ago: Never Forget
Remember, remember, the fifth of November ...
A mere 813 days ago, our lives as Royals fans changed forever. In the past 116 weeks, we have been bestowed the opportunity to watch one Christopher Ryan Getz play mistake-free baseball with the deft touch of an angel. His prodigal bag of tools amazes us to this day.
On Nov. 5, 2009, Dayton Moore pulled off a career-defining trade, shipping vagabond Mark Teahan to Chicago for Josh Fields and Chris Getz.
The Royals, without question, won the trade. Mark Teahan, forever trying to sell his Mark Teahan Show to franchises, was recently given up on by the Toronto Blue Jays. Josh Fields, sensing Chris Getz' excellence, has allegedly quit baseball to spread the gospel of Getz. As side work, he signed to infiltrate the Los Angeles Dodgers organization on Jan. 4 as a spy for one GMDM.
Yet Chris Getz continues his assault on the record books. Of note:
- He is already 109th all-time in hits among Royals - only three behind demi-god Eric Hosmer. With luck, we will witness Getz pass such true blue greats as Craig Paquette, Vada Pinson, Terry Shumpert and William Bloomquist this season.
- Getz is 110th all-time in triples among Royals, currently tied with such fleet-footed speedsters as Jose Guillen, Billy Butler and Bob Hamelin. Elite company, indeed.
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One Year Ago Today: The Royals Were Perched on Their Throne
One year ago, all was right for our Royals. At least in my incomparable analysis.
On January 25th last year, Baseball America had named the Royals the top farm system in the game, it was the end of a very nice stretch that included the Chen and Francis signings, the Gil Meche retirement, and the Billy Butler extension.
Are we still trending upwards?
Will Hosmer's Walk Rate Limit His Upside?
With all the glory that is Eric Hosmer, I noticed a small kink in his armor. He doesn't walk much. In 2011 he walked only 34 times in 523 PA or 6.0% of the time. This value is about the same percentage of times Jeff Francoeur (5.6%) and Mike Moustakas (6.0%) walk. A player doesn't really want to be lumped into the same plate discipline comparison as Francoeur.
The inability of Hosmer to not take a walk is actually a little worse. Of his 34 walks, 7 were intentional. His true walk rate ((BB-IBB)/PA) is actually 4.6%. I had no idea if this number is too low for a player to have a long, good career in the big leagues. I decided to find players in similar situations and see how they did. Using Hosmer's age 21 stats of 563 PAs and 0.799 OPS, I went back and looked at players with > 400 PAs, an OPS between 0.775 and 0.825 and were 20 to 22-years-old from 1950 to 2011. In all, 70 players met the criteria.
Using Hosmer's true walk rate, his ranking was not good. Of the 70 players, he had the 62nd lowest value. The good news was that many of the players around him have ended up having fairly decent careers. Here are the players with similar true walk rates:
Jackie Brandt - 4.5%
Ruben Sierra - 4.6%
Willie Davis - 4.8%
Carl Crawford - 4.9%
Will Clark - 5.2%
Andre Dawson - 5.3%
A Hall of Famer. A few players with really good careers. Just a few players up in the rankings is this guy named George Brett at 5.7%. He was OK. A low walk rate does not seem to be too much of a hindrance for decent career.
Your Reaction to The Gigantic Prince Fielder Signing
The Tigers have signed Prince Fielder to a nine-year, $214 million dollar, contract.
Royals Catchers Look to be Average, Again, in 2012
The Royals catchers have never been great at hitting. The are usually just good enough to be average. In 2011, it was really no different. Here are the OPS for all AL and Royals catchers over the past 5 years.
| Year | AL | Royals |
| 2011 | 0.696 | 0.693 |
| 2010 | 0.686 | 0.628 |
| 2009 | 0.724 | 0.814 |
| 2008 | 0.715 | 0.678 |
| 2007 | 0.713 | 0.663 |
| 5 Year Average | 0.705 | 0.703 |
Over the past 5 years, the Royals catchers have been almost exactly league average. The average value would have looked a little better without Jason Kendall's 0.615 OPS in 118 games in 2010. This league average trend will probably continue in 2012 with switch-hitting Brayan Pena and right-handed Salvador Perez.
Forgotten Royals: Jed Hansen
When I was performing the extensive research needed to complete last week's Carlos Febles post, I noticed the name of Jed Hansen. Hansen played for the Royals from 1997 to 1999 and I had absolutely no memory of him. Now, I'm no modern day Diedrich Knickerbocker, but when you've written loving profiles of Scott Pose and Joe Vitiello and their like, you expect some things of yourself. Had absolutely no recollection of Hansen however.
Hansen was our prodigal. Or, perhaps he was that on-again-off-again, flame. The Royals parted ways with him twice, only to bring him back. There was a spark of magic, some early years of promise, and a name spelled with an "e" instead of an "o." There were memories, I just never had them.
- Hansen was a 2nd round pick out of Stanford in 1994. Only one Major Leaguer of any note was taken in that round, but he was a big one: Troy Glaus, who was taken 14 spots ahead of Hansen. In the first round the Royals took Matt Smith, one of the bigger busts the team selected in the 1990s. The Royals' best selection that year was Jose Rosado, who was taken in the 12th round. That is, unless Matt Treanor EXPLODES next season.
- Hansen never really had a strong minor league season, though for a second baseman he wasn't bad in 1996, when he hit 12 homers and slugged .462. In 1998, when he couldn't earn a spot on the Royals as a 25 year old, he slugged .472 with a .347 OBP in Omaha, which also wasn't bad.
- His moment of glory was his August-September debut in 1997. In 34 games (111 PAs) he hit .309/.394/.426. You'll notice the batting average and walks, along with some decent power (6 2Bs, 1 3B and 1 HR, off of Luis Andujar of Toronto). After 13 games Hansen was hitting .381/.449/.595. He didn't quite collapse after that, but it's plain enough that he was holding on. He rebounded with a strong final week of the season, pulling his batting average up from the .280s depths.



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