Wednesday Burn- Open Thread

by Freneau on Dec 6, 2006 11:42 AM EST in Kansas City Royals News

I'll be in and out all day, consider this an Open Thread for today's news/rumors...

As "greggagne4hof" notes in the Diaries, the Royals, at least according to the Star are closing in on a deal for Rodrigo Lopez of the Orioles.

Lopez has a career ERA of 4.83 in 937 major league innings, but he hasn't actually posted an ERA that low since 2004. looking at his ERA+ numbers, he's been a good pitcher in two seasons and a bad one in four.

Rodrigo Lopez ERA+

-2000: 49
-2001: injury/minors
-2002: 123 (Rookie of the Year)
-2003: 75
-2004: 133
-2005: 85
-2006: 77

Remember, above 100=good, below 100=bad.

For the Baltimore point of view, click here.

In more random news, the Royals may be nearing a new TV deal with Fox Sports Midwest, which is good news. I was fearful the next TV deal was going to be with OLN.

Lastly, legendary Royals Blogger Bill Heeter is calling it quits.

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Update [2006-12-6 18:23:17 by royalsreview]:

"Spectator" weighs in with optimism regarding Bannister:

Regarding Bannister, Rany is way off. I know nothing about Bannister, but I definitely know it's a bad idea to base your entire argument on 38 innings of pitching. He has 7.74 K/9 and 2.54 BB/9 in 550 innings of minor league pitching - I'm not saying he'll replicate those numbers in the majors, but we shouldn't ignore them.

We had a staff era of 5.85 last year, and we had one pitcher on the team pitch more than 115 innings. I don't remember what the average length of a start was, but it wasn't good. Rany calls Bannister a "#4/#5 starter" like it's a bad thing - I'd love to have at least one guy on our staff that can legitimately be considered a major league starter, and I'm not sure we had one last year.

I tend to agree, if he actually is a #4/5 starter (although does anyone actually know what this means? most teams hate their #4/5 starters and are always replacing them) I'll take that over the 10% chance that Burgos has a nice 60 innings at some point.

Yesterday Joe Sheehan at BP gave a thumbs up to the deal for the Royals, only to change his mind today:

Sam (Columbia, MO): Ambiorix Burgos for Brian Bannister...how does this deal look for the Royals? Also, what do you make of them being in the hunt for Meche and Batista? Just throwing around money they should be saving? Thanks.

Joe Sheehan: What's fun about the winter meetings is that if you say something stupid, there are 15 people around to set you straight.

My initial reaction to the deal was that I liked it; the Royals need starters, and Bannister could be a bottom-rotation guy. Burgos just seems like a guy to me, someone to walk 50 guys a year out of the pen. When I expressed this to a few people--smart people, guys I respect--I was just about laughed out of the room. There's just no belief that Bannister is more than fodder.

In retrospect, I think I was wrong. Bannister is more a #5/#6 guy, and Burgos has a power arm with upside.

And theres the rub, namely, can Bannister even be a #4/5 guy? Only time will tell. The important thing to remember with pitchers is the inherent randomness of what they do: people get injured, take new approaches, learn new pitches, start tipping them, etc. Its always changing.

For what its worth, Chris Caraballo of the blog Lets Go Mets writes,

Bannister is a good young pitcher. He shows tremendous poise and contrary to Burgos gets himself out of the big inning. On a few occasions he got himself into trouble with bases loaded and nobody out and got himself out. He has pinpoint control, but when he doesnt have that control he turns into a 4-5 inning, 100 pitch pitcher.

Has anyone seen/heard any movement on the Rodrigo Lopez deal?

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Comments

rany on the bannister deal- must read

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=53

by Freneau on Dec 6, 2006 3:24 PM EST reply actions

not so fast

Regarding Lopez, I don't think I buy your definition of >100 as "good" and <100 as "bad." Keep in mind this is the Royals we are talking about. If Lopez can give us 190 innings (his average over the last three years) with an era+ of 85, he's easily our best pitcher.

I, for one, think the Royals would be tremendously helped by having a guy or two on the staff who can consistently pitch 6 innings, even if they aren't particularly good. If nothing else, they would help the bullpen.

by Moose Tacos on Dec 6, 2006 4:10 PM EST reply actions

ERA +

Well yea, I guess "good" and "bad" are relative terms... above/below league average would be better...

notable royal ERA + s in 2006:

-Redman: 85

-Runny: 75

-Elarton: 91

-Hudson: 95

you get the idea... this is what happens when you dont have a starter with an ERA below 5.00

by Freneau on Dec 6, 2006 6:28 PM EST up reply actions

Bannister

I agree it's silly to make a case for a pitcher based on such a small sample. It's like the way GM's seem to look at somebody's walk year and forget every year that came before it. Somebody that will eat up innings has value (Ted Lilly and Gil Meche and the 7 figure contracts thrown around would attest to that.) So at the very least the Royals got someone on the cheap who can help win now and possibly long term. I do think Burgos has the better upside, but ultimately it's too soon to tell on this deal. I think it also puts more pressure on resolving the closer situation to stabalize the bullpen. Any news on that front?

lordbyronk

by lordbyronk on Dec 6, 2006 4:19 PM EST reply actions

What is the price of a #4 or 5 starter?

Based on the free agent market of 2006 - 2007, a #4 or 5 starter is worth about 8 -10 million a season. Look at Padilla, Meche, Lilly, Eaton, etc. If Bannister could turn out to be a solid #4, I would be thrilled. Totally agree with the idea that finding a pitcher who can give 6 good innings is much harder than finding a guy who can pitch one. Yes, Burgos throws hard but walks and homers are an ugly combination. If you strike out 2 but give up a 2 run HR because of a walk - that doesn't really help. I would love for the Royals to have more guys who can pitch and not walk batters than relievers who were terrible.

by daveyork on Dec 6, 2006 4:23 PM EST reply actions

Agree Rany is wrong here

A cheap #4 for an unpredictable setup guy whose only virtue currently is that he throws hard will only hurt if Burgos develops command, an area in which he shows zero progress to this point. We could get roughly Batista/Meche/Redman(ugh) production for next to nothing, and the minor league numbers suggest this is not unlikely.

by chukar on Dec 6, 2006 4:32 PM EST up reply actions

Do we lead the league in walks?

Do we lead the league in walks? And a side question, how many runs scored as a result of our walks? I would think we would have to lead the league in that category. Totally agree!

lordbyronk

by lordbyronk on Dec 6, 2006 4:31 PM EST reply actions

Whoa!

Those Baltimore fans are chomping on the bit at the prospect of dealing Lopez for Brown.

That's not a good sign. Hopefully, we send Sanders. Even if he's the one to go, they seem a bit too elated about that scenario.

by marbotty on Dec 6, 2006 5:02 PM EST reply actions

come on

We will do to Rodrigo just like Odalis and we will have a happy family of pitchers get abunch one has to work out.
But do the not like him. We don't like Sanders if they would take Berroa to!!!!!!!!!!

by ROR 1Fan on Dec 6, 2006 5:21 PM EST up reply actions

Pretty funny how familiarity breeds contempt

They speak of him with the same venom this site speaks of Berroa. They would gladly give him away. He was their opening day guy 3 of last 5 years, and now he could be a Royal, ha.

Good news if you think posters have the inside scoop, which we do, is the Mets guys overall are pretty skeptical about the Burgos deal, having already identified his problems with the splitter and hitters sitting on the fat fastball.

by chukar on Dec 6, 2006 5:52 PM EST up reply actions

On the bright side

If we trade Brown, and Sanders has a productive, healthy half season maybe we can flip him for prospects.

lordbyronk

by lordbyronk on Dec 6, 2006 5:12 PM EST reply actions

Meche a bluejay?

Free agent Gil Meche has reportedly narrowed his choices to the Blue Jays, Cubs and Royals.

It's unclear whether all three teams are offering four years, though it'd come as no surprise if that's the case. We're guessing Toronto for Meche, with Ted Lilly picking the Cubs. Meche is expected to make his decision on Wednesday.
Source: Yahoo! Sports
Foxsports has meche as potentially the 2nd best pickup this year.
Meche has an impressive arsenal -- fastball that touches the mid-90s, tight overhand curve and enough off-speed stuff to get by -- and he was finally healthy last season. Meche's mechanics are inconsistent, but that's a correctable flaw. With proper instruction, he'll take a big step forward, and at age 28 he's primed to do just that. Meche could be the steal of the winter.

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/6185144

60% of the time it works every time!

by greggagneHOF on Dec 6, 2006 6:01 PM EST reply actions

loooks like we missed out on him

by Freneau on Dec 6, 2006 8:34 PM EST up reply actions

Lilly to the Cubs for $40 million

If it takes $40 million to sign a guy like Ted Lilly, then KC is better off pocketing the money and spending it elsewhere. I just don't see the value of free agency this year. Of course, it isn't my money they are spending. $10 million on Gil Meche just has an odd sound - something not right there. It will be a buyer's remorse within a year.

KC knows all about that with Sanders and Elarton.

In related subject of overpaying players, did you see that Paul Bako signed with Baltimore for $900K? How can he be making almost a million dollars to bat .231 and have 16 RBIs (my projections for 2007)? I guess he does provide veteran leadership, is a gamer, is a presence in the clubhouse, handles pitchers well, is a stabilizing factor blah, blah, blah - If he wasn't a lefthanded batting catcher, he would be selling insurance in Walla Walla, Washington.

by daveyork on Dec 6, 2006 11:13 PM EST up reply actions

another link regarding Burgos/Bannister:

http://www.metsinfo.blogspot.com/

by Freneau on Dec 6, 2006 8:35 PM EST reply actions

Rodrigo might be a Brewer

The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel believes the Brewers have a deal in place that would send Kevin Mench to Baltimore for Rodrigo Lopez in the event the Orioles fail to sign Luis Gonzalez.

60% of the time it works every time!

by greggagneHOF on Dec 6, 2006 8:42 PM EST reply actions

It is all guessing and until I see it on the

bottom line it all make believe. That sad, I would take Lopez before Bautista. Why add a 36 year old pitcher to a young staff. Now with Bannister we don't have a pitcher over 31. If we can't get Lopez lets fold our tents and go home. Sanders and Brown will still be trade bait and could go for as little as a couple of minor leaguers.

I hope Moore is combing through all the eligible Rule V draftees. I want him to pluck a gem for little or nothing.

by grudz69 on Dec 7, 2006 12:22 AM EST reply actions

what time is the draft?

60% of the time it works every time!

by greggagneHOF on Dec 7, 2006 1:02 AM EST reply actions

MLB.COM

MLB.COM had an article about the draft. (Rule 5 Draft generating little buzz). They said that the Royals were thinking of picking Pedro Strop from the Rockies. Anybody know anything about him?

lordbyronk

by lordbyronk on Dec 7, 2006 8:20 AM EST reply actions

This from SI.com on Strop

This was part of an article by someone named Bryan Smith on 10 people he would pick in the Rule V draft (our own Jarod Plummer also appears on the list):

Pedro Strop, 21, RHP
Organization: Colorado Rockies
2006 Class, Stats: Short-Season/Low-A, 3.42 ERA, 19 H/26.1 IP, 35 K/7 BB

A shortstop prior to 2006, Strop was converted to a pitcher after a poor 2005 dropped his career average to .212. Upon moving to the mound, Strop's fastball was hitting the mid-90s. His stuff is as electric as any in this draft; however, he is extremely crude. Strop allowed three home runs in his 11 appearances in full season ball, and despite a decent walk rate, command remains a problem. Strop's breaking ball has had some success, but he hangs the pitch too often, resulting in the home runs. One of the younger players eligible, Strop's ceiling could lend the first overall selection, but his lack of refinement could leave him undrafted.

by CentralChamps2009 on Dec 7, 2006 10:22 AM EST up reply actions

I guess the Dodgers did want another OF

Luis Gonzalez has agreed to terms with the Dodgers on a one-year, $7-million deal. Gonzalez, who hit .271 with 52 doubles, 15 homers and 73 RBIs for the Arizona Diamondbacks last season, will play left field, with Andre Ethier moving to right.

Emil Brown hit .287 with 41 doubles, 15 HR, and 81 RBI and made $1.8M.

by Berroa is the devil on Dec 7, 2006 8:27 AM EST reply actions