Rewriting History
Later this season division titles will be won, leading inexorably to pennant winners and eventually another champion. Based on twenty to sixty at bats, a new doxology of the "Catechism of Clutch" will be compiled, complete with new saints and sinners. We'll spend half the winter likely thinking, "I still can't believe [Team X] won the World Series", and then, somewhere between the Super Bowl and Spring Training, it'll sink in, and we'll start looking ahead to the 2007 season. Positive history, the stuff that actually happens will be recorded and to the extent possible by our kind, remembered in some sense of the word's potential.
Sometimes history is unmade rather than made, the manifest events that don't end up happening because something mundane took its place. For most of us, slogging away in an anonymity bound only for oblivion, this is our fate. As Larkin said, "nothing, like something, happens anywhere".
Right now, across the dark heartland of the summer night, something terrible is dying, being erased from the history books of the future: The Kansas City Royals, almost inexplicably, are moving towards a merely terrible 2006 season, but they won't be the worst team of all-time.
June 3 Record: 13-40
July 2 Record: 27-52
In their last 26 games, the Royals have gone 14-12, winning more games in that span than they had in their first 53. The Royals have raised their season winning percentage from .245 to .342, which is harder than it sounds. Sure, its also fairly difficult to play that bad for the first two and a half months, but for once, its time to focus on the positives. Especially after a strangely magical 8-7 11 inning win in St. Louis.
We may be bad, but you can start putting the Royals and the Pirates in the same conversation now, and the Cubs aren't far behind.
Offensive Heroes of the Last 30 Days (from MLB.com sortables):
John Buck: .283/.386/.567
David DeJesus: .346/.443/.510
Emil Brown: .329/.385/.506
Matt Stairs: .288/.377/.500
Mark Teahen: .310/.362/.506
Doug Mientkiewicz: .292/.383/.449
Honorable Mentions:
Joey Gathright: .292/.414/.375 (in 9 games as a Royal)
Esteban German: .273/.333/.394
Thats almost a functional major league lineup core and two helpful fringe players if you look closely. Teahen's actually had two mini-flaming hot streaks and a terrible two weeks in between, which sorta gets obscured in his channeling of 1999 Joe Randa. Needless to say, its time to revive the TEAHEN FOR ALL-STAR!! campaign.
Together, Minky and Emil Brown are almost making Allard Baird seem wronged, while the emergence of a over .900 OPS John Buck is making the Beltran deal (which also included Teahen) look like a victory. Remember, the Royals didn't trade away 5 seasons of Carlos, they traded away two months...
On the whole, the offense has been surprisingly good, although a bit lucky. In the last 30 days the Royals are 9th in baseball in runs scored, at 144 in 28 games. This despite having a modest team OPS of .746, which ranks 21st. A team line of .267/.341/.405 doesn't exactly belie future success, but the Royals have clustered hits enough to milk out an above-average number of runs.
And sure, Buddy still indulges his Angel-fetish (.216/.255/.237 in his last 26 games) with pathological dedication, but at least we can relish the fact that the Gathright trade doesn't look entirely dullard-tastic yet. Royals Review, if it stands for anything, is about affirmation.
Pitching Heroes of the Last 30 Days:
Mark Redman: 4.42 ERA (38.2 IP)
Mike Wood: 4.56 ERA (25.2 IP)
Brandon Duckworth: 5.57 ERA (21.0 IP)
Elmer Dessens: 3.18 ERA (17.0 IP)
Jeremy Affeldt: 3.31 ERA (16.1 IP)
Jimmy Gobble: 2.25 ERA (16.0 IP)
Todd Wellemeyer: 1.13 ERA (8.0 IP)
Despite struggles from Self-Appointed Team Effort Inspector Scott Elarton (5.60 ERA in his last 27 IP) and the hurtful exposure of the real Bobby Keppel (6.18 ERA), the Royals have amazingly fielded an acceptable American League pitching staff. Sure, Brandon Duckworth's ERA is 5.57, but considering the context of his innings -- "hey, can you pitch for us? OK, cool, umm, here's a uniform" -- its the prettiest mid 5.00 ERA since, I dunno, sometime when some other random came in off the street...
Moreover, in a fascinating development, Buddy Bell continues to get good work out of Jimmy Gobble and Elmer Dessens nearly every night. Sure, the purported "stopper" Burgos has been, umm, "mercurial" during the hot streak (9.26 ERA), but we can't have everything go right. Gobble's even struck out 12 men in his 16 innings of work, which raises the question: why isn't every failed starter converted to reliever for awhile? It may be a reverse Weaverism, but given the current state of how pitchers are handled ("you've failed at this for 4 other teams, lets see what you can do for us") I don't see how it can be any worse.
The team ERA since June 2nd is at 5.09 (25th), essentially the mark of a sketchy staff, but not something that can't be worked around enough for a random run of .500 baseball. Considering the Royals' team ERA in April was 5.95 and an incredible 6.51 in the month of May. Still, we return to a more frightening question: is not a historically bad season a good thing for the franchise. As someone -- was it once Pat Riley? -- said, nothing clarifies like losing. On those grounds, yes, its hard not to imagine a 43 win season having a purgative effect, even in a media market as relatively tame as Kansas City, and even for an ownership as both fossilized and arrogant as la familia Glass.
On the other hand, we've already had the closest approximation of drastic change that I think we can expect with the firing of Allard Baird and the Dayton Moore hire. From here, its a more philosophical question, which depends on how you view a Major League roster. Is there some inherent difference between a 45 win team and a 55 win team, or a 65 win team? Does that difference usually manifest itself as something that can be easily added to, or is the scale different. Last week I lamented that a 120 loss Royal team could improve by 30 games -- itself extremely difficult -- and still be a 5th place team. Others felt, citing the 2003 Tigers, that the easiest portion of the path to respectability is those first 20 wins of improvement. If thats the case, then it may still be a net negative if the Royals don't lose 121 games this season, because the organization may feel more comfortable with what it has.
This is a blank truth thats hard to swallow, yet not hard to believe. But, regardless of what kind of GM Dayton Moore is, you have to believe he wants to do better, he wants to win, he wants to make a name for himself. That motivation should be there, no matter how the team plays. If Dayton's dumb enough to fall in love with Buddy Bell or Angel Berroa or Dougie, then so be it, it was probably going to happen anyway.
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Great Post
by Basebrawler on Jul 2, 2006 8:29 AM EDT 0 recs
More on pitching, and "Is there hope at AAA?
I did not rank the Royals pitchers based on what was expected of them, or based on how much they cost the team in salary. I simply measured them up against the only real criteria that should be used, how well do they match up against other MLB pitchers across the league. These are the players they will have to beat. If we are going to rate Royals pitchers better than they really deserve just because the teams' expectations are so humble (63 wins a year instead of a truly competitive club) are we not resigning the Royals to never rising up to the level which the other 29 clubs aspire? Mike Wood is a pretty average pitcher when compared to the other members of the Royals staff, but when compared to other MLB pitchers, he wouldn't even find a home on 2/3rds of the other teams' staffs.
Redman, just look at his numbers. I know he has won five games, but the guy has been a batting cage pitch delivery system this year on the mound. His WHIP is over 1.5, his BB/K numbers per 9 are both 3.7 (thirty of each). His 5.60 ERA is a true reflection of his performance. Honestly, would this man be starting for any other club in MLB right now? Maybe, he might squeak into a few of the rotations as a choice of resignation. Thirty teams, five starters, 150 members of his peer group at any given time, and Redman cannot be considered any higher than in the 140-150 range. Does he really deserve a rating higher just because he has stumbled his way into five wins for our beloved Royals?
Much of the pitching staff falls into this same mold, men holding on to their jobs by their finger tips and their good fortune to be on a team that recognizes they have few attractive options. As I wrote earlier I think if the Royals waived their entire pitching staff today, only Gobble, Dessens, Burgos, Peralta and maybe Sisco and Wood would find a home on any of the other 29 major league rosters at their current salary levels. The other half of the staff would shuffle off into various AAA sites and start looking for one-bedroom apartments with short term leases.
**
On a different but related note, when I looked over Omaha stats I saw a few pitchers putting together good seasons who I do not seem to ever read mentioned by the Royals as fitting into their plans. I'll list a few below. Maybe there are good reasons these men are not being given time on the roster that does not come through in just their performance numbers. Does anyone know why these men seemed to be buried? It seems to me that when the Royals go looking for help they often skip right over AAA and go to Wichita. In favor of the young and raw over the older but potentially more effective group available at Omaha. Is Omaha the "forgotten country" of Royalsworld? These men might not be prospects in the traditional sense due to their age and uninspiring career numbers, but they all appear to have put together a good first half AAA campaign.
Joe Nelson (31 yrs) - 2.10 ERA in 23 games (7 saves). 30 Innings, 19 hits, BB/K 11/36. Plus he pitched very well in 9 games at KC this year! 0.96 ERA in 9.1 Innings in the bigs. These AAA numbers are All-Star caliber. Why is he down in Omaha now? At his age, he doesn't need more seasoning. In fact, any more seasoning and his flesh will start to smell of decay. Give him a shot?
Ed Yarnall (30 yrs) - 2-2, 3.74 ERA in 20 games (4 starts). 45.2 Innings, 41 hits, BB/K 11/46. Those numbers look very good to me, and he is a southpaw. He now has about 150 starts at AAA and Japanese majors, so he is over experienced. I guess he fits the mold of the prototypical AAAA player. Worth an etended look in the KC pen?
Adam Bernero (29 yrs) - 2-2, 3.78 ERA in 11 games (7 starts). 52.1 Innings, 48 hits, BB/K 11/34. This all seems pretty solid. Bernero has spent a good amount of time in MLB previously, and has not been effective at that level. Maybe he is ready now?
Danny Tamayo (27 yrs) - 3-2, 4.21 ERA in 7 games (3 starts). 25.2 Innings, 24 hits, BB/K 4/26. This guy is a little behind target on his development, but only being 27 he may not yet have peaked. These numbers seem to be saying he is able to pitch effectively at AAA and might be able to contribute to the Royals at this point. Maybe it is time to give him his first MLB opportunity? Last year he went 9-8 at AAA with a 5.28 ERA. Looks like he has made the adjustment and improved a notch. Reward his years of work and gradual improvement with some time in the show? Who knows, maybe he'll seize his opportunity and hold onto his roster spot with the same level of grime determination that Buddy Bell shows every day when he writes Berroa's name on that line-up card.
Ryan Baerlocher (29 yrs) - 3-3, 3.78 ERA in 15 games (4 starts). 52.1 Innings, 51 hits, BB/K 19/37. Passable AAA numbers. Has given up 6 HR's which is high. Can he help out?
Steve Andrade (28 yrs) - 0-2, 4.63 ERA in 12 games. 23.1 Innings, 21 hits, BB/K 8/22. Another pitcher who has been given time at MLB and not pitched well. I would have to say he doesn't look terribly promising, but those strikeouts sure look tempting.
I am not sure if Sisco and/or Affeldt have options left, but if they do, I think Buddy ought to put them in the Omaha penalty box until they pull themselves together and bring up a couple of these arms. Redman is 32 years old and not signed for next year. If I were calling the shots he would be on a short leash at this point. He probably could be DFAed down to Omaha without risking a claim at this point anyway (what other team is chomping at the bit to see Redman on their mound?) I think a shift of Sisco/Affeldt down, Nelson/Yarnall up might actually produce a more competitive club at this point and perhaps also be beneficial to Sisco and Affeldt's long term development. Redman is not going to lead the Royals to an AL Central crown this year, and his salary money is already spent. A couple more starts like yesterday in St. Louis, and who could say any longer with any confidence that he is hurting the club less than Yarnell or Bernero or Tamayo would?
by James Quinn on Jul 2, 2006 12:06 PM EDT 1 recs
Good Post...
But in the lower levels we have some quality pitching. We still haven't singed Hochevar. I am not holding my breath on that one.
Good post...
by grudz69 on
Jul 2, 2006 3:36 PM EDT
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ozzie guillen is chomping at the bit about redman.
great post... i'm with you all the way about Nelson/Yarnall for Sisco. Affeldt has looked solid his last few outings, but I always fall for that.
by andrewmiller on
Jul 2, 2006 9:36 PM EDT
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good line
chuckle chuckle
Yeah, that guy can't fool me again, .... but then again, I said that about Gobbler when he broke Spring Training with the club, and he has maintained the illusion for three months now. Just trying to suck us into "We Believe" and then let us down with a thud and a shrug.
by James Quinn on
Jul 2, 2006 10:01 PM EDT
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b-e-a-utiful
by loyal2theroyals on Jul 2, 2006 2:40 PM EDT 0 recs
Bring Back Ken Harvey and Dee Brown
He might kill Emil Brown if he got the chance.
by LeoBloom on Jul 5, 2006 12:01 PM EDT 0 recs













