PECOTA Day: Bad News for Meche and DeJesus

One of the best days of the year, as PECOTA is up and out.

If you don't have BP Premium, you may want to subscribe tonight, or in an hour, or soon.

Consider this the PECOTA comments thread, part I.


Obviously the Gil Meche projection is headline news given his (did you hear?) $55 million dollar contract. Here's the projection on Meche: 6-10 in 22 starts, with an ERA of 5.48.

Basically, a run per game worse than Kevin Millwood, and have a run worse than Brandon McCarthy.

I wouldn't put much stock in the W-L record, or even the starts projection (although if the weighted mean is 22 starts, then in alot of projections he either gets demoted or injured... not fun.) Pecota sees Meche's K-rate stay just OK (6.00 per 9), while he gives up a homer a game.

Umm, yea, umm... well Dayton's beloved Jorge de la Rosa is even projected to make Meche look good, with a 5.71 ERA, while giving up tons of hits (9.5 per 9), walks (4.8 per 9) and homers (.9 per 9). So I guess thats good. Well, we have months -- years actually -- to obsess on this deal.

Other quick hits:

-Gobble: 4.30 ERA, 6.5 Ks per 9
-Dotel looks pedestrian, but effective or "effective" with a 4.93 ERA but a strong strikeout rate, which is huge.

Regarding the offense, the projection for DeJesus looks surprisingly tepid, although maybe we've just gotten a smidge bullish on David. .291/.358/.425 with 10 homers is solid, but I want more. Worse still, his comparables include such non-stars as Mark Kotsay, Marvin Bernard and Del Unser. Goodness me! Marvin Bernard? Didn't he lose his job to Tsuyoshi Shinjo?

Has DeJesus already peaked?

Its an awful thought, but there might be something to that sentiment. DeJesus just had his 27th birthday (December 20th) and he has always been an advanced, mature player in terms of his approach and also his skillset (especially once he stopped trying to steal bases). Here's his OPS+ as a regular:

DeJesus OPS+:

2004: 103
2005: 114
2006: 103

Granted, large chunks of those at bats involved DeJesus either playing through pain and/or recovering from injury, and, he is a capable centerfielder. However, because of the Gathright infatuation, DeJesus isn't exactly a CF anymore; as he spent the majority of his time in left last season. This isn't exactly good news.

DeJesus career line: .292/.362/.434
AL Average Centerfielder: .275/.334/.437
AL Average Leftfielder: .280/.347/.449

There's actually not as large a disparity as I expected in the averages, as numerous teams have used weak hitting corner outfielders in recent years. Still, for the millionth time, playing David in left with Gathright in center is a fast way to field a weak lineup. David can handle CF, and in theory at least, there are oodles of guys who can stand there in left and post a .500 SLG without too much harm done. Like, say, Billy Butler.

But its not all bad. Gathright has a 27% breakout chance, and 40% "improve" odds.

And some guy named "Alex Gordon" already projects to hit .282/.364/.511 with 26 homers.

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