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At My Back I Always Hear... Rob Neyer

Sometime in the 1840s Tennyson remarked to a friend that he was haunted by a line from Marvell's "To His Coy Mistress" despite not being able to account fully for its sublimity.

But at my back I always hear
Time's winged chariot hurrying near
Considering the deep melancholy which pervaded Tennyson's youth and middle age, his inability to express (or admit) the power of Marvell's image is likely another example of droll English understatment. If not, only Tennysonian stupidity fits.

I thought of Tennyson and Marvell this afternoon while reading the latest Rob & Rany. (The post is actually a week old, but I put off reading it until this weekend as a kind of delayed gratification line.) As many of you know, Neyer takes Moore to task (again) for the Meche for $55 million moment in time:

Rob: I read an article the other day, wherein five general managers were asked to defend/justify a questionable off-season move. As you might imagine, Dayton Moore was asked about Gil Meche, and part of his response was this: "Guys just don't break into the major leagues as a No. 1 or No. 2 starter. Look at Johan Santana, Chris Carpenter, Tom Glavine, John Smoltz. It takes time." Does anybody reading this need me (or you) to explain just how irrelevant those names are in this discussion?

As these things usually go, Rany dutifully plays good cop, arguing that Meche may become a #3 starter and that, finally, its simply a matter of methodological dispute, "I look at Moore's rationale for offering that contract, and while I don't agree with it, I respect the line of thinking enough to say, okay, it was a bad move, but it doesn't dim my estimation of Moore all that much". Rany plays the credibility card, as well as pointing to GMDM's pristine reputation within the game.

But at my back I always hear,
"Meche for 55 million" in my ear

For those of us under a certain age, Neyer has been a constant in our lives as fans. Back when he was a free writer on ESPN I had his url memorized (it ended with something like "mlb/columnists/neyer") and knew the weekly schedule of his columns. Similarly, the "Rob and Rany" exchange has been around for a long time. It was essentially a blog before there were blogs. And through it all, Neyer's been commenting on the Royals. The Royals-angle is a standard staple of his radio hits, interviews and chat sessions. Not surprisingly, he's been overwhelmingly critical.

And he's been right.

Because he "didn't play the game" and is associated with sabermetrics a certain segment of the Royals fanbase dismisses him as a negative nelly, as a "hater" or worse. Everytime a Neyer quote gets posted on a Royals message board the same stock responses come up, you might as well just post "Do you like Sweeney and why?" or "Is Barry Bonds a Cheater?". Like debates over global warming and abortion, people just like having the same debate over and over again, despite the fact that no one is gonna change their mind.

Does anyone wanna go back in time and defend Tony Muser, Allard's Oakland trades, the Roberto Hernandez deal, the Chuck Knoblauch deal, Colt, the Minky-Elarton-Grudz extravaganza and the like?

Unlike some columnists, Neyer's consistent. He damn near pioneered the "Jeter is a bad short-stop" analysis, and got ripped for three years before it became semi-mainstream. He also famously came around on Allard, singing praises in 2003-4 that he'd started to improve as a GM. Despite the strawman theory that he's simply Billy Beane's lapdog, he's given Beane proper lashings (the T-Long contract and the Kendall trade) when he's felt they were warranted.

As we've already established this off-season, for better or worse Meche for $55 million isn't going away. While ultimately, as a citizen, I can sit back and mutter some combination of "its not my money" and "dem ballplayers get paid insane money" as a mildly engaged fan who follows the team it remains a defining moment. In this case, both the contract itself and Neyer's disbelief in it always return to my mind. Whats Simmons line about those things that you hear from a girlfriend's past that change everything?

Right now the Meche deal is the equivalent of she was in a threeway with two guys. It effects everything.

Rob: Wait a minute, are you suggesting he was able to sign Dotel and Riske because he had overpaid for Meche? I think that's a highly questionable assertion, and even if you're right, how long will this wonderful halo effect last? Let's say Meche goes 6-10 with a 5.48 ERA this season, which is what PECOTA says . . . is there going to be a halo effect next winter, and the winter after that, and the winter after that, and the winter after that? If the benefit here is credibility, it would have been much, much better to overpay somebody for one year or two years or even three. It's clear that Moore believes PECOTA is dead wrong about Meche. I hope he's right. But if he's wrong and PECOTA (and every other projections method) is right, the contract isn't a loss leader. It's a loss and a big one. You referenced the possibility that "Moore's reputation is wildly overstated," but he never really had a reputation. Right now, Gil Meche is Moore's reputation.

Do you really want to disagree with him?

0 recs  |  Comment 23 comments

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Rob Neyer
is very overrated as a columnist to me.  I think yes so far GMDM has a credible reputation, and he is a better GM than Allard Baird.  The Gil Meche signing makes sense if you take it with a grain of salt.  Do I think he'll become Chris Carpenter?  I hope so yes, realistically probably not.  Will he become a league average innings muncher?  Most likely.  So he will probably be a little overpaid for that role in this contract, but maybe not the way salaries are inflating by the end of it.  Does GMDM reputation ride on Meche?  That is an awful lot of stock to put on one trade and I think it negates all the other good moves that he has made this offseason.  So Rob, Do me a favor have a little faith, wait for the season to start and see what happens.  The Royals just might exceed everyone's expectation.  
lordbyronk

by lordbyronk on Jan 28, 2007 9:17 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

one thing you mentioned...
innings

the royals really could use just generic innings from the rotation, and meche may provide that

then again, that was the idea with Redman and Self-Appointed Team Effort Inspector Scott Elarton

we'll see

by royalsreview on Jan 28, 2007 2:59 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Ha!
"Self-Appointed Team Effort Inspector Scott Elarton"

I LOVE that nickname! Kudos!

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jan 29, 2007 1:46 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

The thing I like about Neyer
He's the sabermetric gateway drug.

by JM Barten on Jan 29, 2007 5:08 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

that is really true
well... back when he was mainstream

by royalsreview on Jan 29, 2007 10:14 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Slap!
Will, (I'm John Wayne, you are the newly arrived recruit ducking your head after each shell blast.  I square shoulders and give you a good slap.)  Will, come out of it man.  The team needs you!

Look, I don't like paying $3 for a strong cup of coffee, but that is what it costs.  I don't like that the Royals paid $11M/per for a starting pitcher, but that is what one costs.  If the Royals didn't pay Meche $11M/per than the Cubs or the Jays were going to.  The only difference between the KC contract and the others was 5 years vs. 4 years.

(You still fighting the argument.)  But what if he never gets better?  What if Col. Pecoto is right and were all screwed!?!?

(Two hard slaps) Sest La Gurrrr (Wayne's French accent was always off, read "C'est la guerre.")  Every time you sign a free agent other teams want you have to pay him his market value.  It the Royals are going to be good they need starting pitching.  Not just next year kid, but the year after and the three years after that.  Let's face it, in that orphanage Old Man Glass is running in Omaha there were no pitching reinforcements to be sent up.  You can't make a pitcher out wishful thoughts, you gotta draft him and train him.  You'll be pushing up your third crop of daisies before five good starting pitchers arrive from Omaha.  We need some help and Meche was available and he was as good as it got and we paid the price.

(You are holding your head up now) But Sgt Rob says the Meche contract is a death trap and we'll never get past it.

(Me looking more understanding now) Kid, we got through the T-Long contract.  We're almost through the Sweeney Line.  Hell, we once had Lima bomb dropped right on us, but we got up, and sure we were sore, but we moved forward.  I've seen the other options and Meche, of the second tier free agents available, was the second best.  He might come after Padilla but he was better than Lilly and Batista.  All those guys got paid.  Hell, even Marquis got $7M/per.  Think of those poor bastards in Company Cubs.  

Now get back on the keyboard and do your job soldier.  A lot of Royals fans are counting on you to keep our optimism up.  The CO did what he had to.  We needed help and he got us help, to hell with the money.  Now let's advance.  I want us to overrun Hill #Cleveland by the end of 2007 and it `ant gonna happen if we just sit here and worry about what we can't change.  What most of us wouldn't change even if we could.

by James Quinn on Jan 28, 2007 11:15 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

one other thing...
thinking about the deal for the millionth time... its not really the money, its the years, as JQ said, "He might come after Padilla but he was better than Lilly and Batista.  All those guys got paid.  Hell, even Marquis got $7M/per," there was alot of fat money thrown around in the offseason

but the cubs didn't give marquis a roster spot through 2012 either

ohh well, who knows, in Meche we trust

by royalsreview on Jan 28, 2007 4:33 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

In Meche we trust...
... that's right.  Love him or hate him, we're gonna spend a long time with him from here forward.  Let's get behind him and be unreasonably optimistic about him developing into a great pitcher.  

To run Meche down at this point is to let the terrorists win.

by James Quinn on Jan 28, 2007 4:55 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Plus
The only thing the Royals gave up to get Meche was a big wad of Old Man Glass' money.  We didn't have to trade any talent for him, he is just a gift to the team by an owner who has been too often absent during the last few years.

by James Quinn on Jan 28, 2007 5:22 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Attacking Meche
only emboldens the enemy
FIRE BELL

by FireBell on Jan 28, 2007 5:54 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Bad Pun
The team that wins is the one that Meches well together.
lordbyronk

by lordbyronk on Jan 28, 2007 9:09 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

i think...
you just gave JoePo or Flanagan (def Flanagan actually) a good headline
FIRE BELL

by FireBell on Jan 28, 2007 9:14 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

How many wins will Meche need?
How many wins would Meche need this year to put all this talk behind us?  If Meche goes 15-10 with a sub 4 ERA is that worth is $11 million this year?  Does he have to win 20+ games with a sub 3 ERA for us to consider him worth it?  What if he has three good-to-great years (say 15-10, 17-8, 19-7) then lays a 2-10 bomb where he gets hurt and misses the rest of the season.  Is he a bust then?  Basically how good does the guy have to do before we as Royals fans are laughing at everyone else because we got the steal of the offseason this year and serial nay sayers like Rob Neyer are pointing to GMDM's moves as an example of how a small market team has to win.  I feel (a little) bad for Meche and GMDM because it seems like no matter what happens it won't be enough for us.  If Meche wins two Cy Youngs and pushes the Royals into the playoffs he'll only be earning his money, anything less and he's a worthless overpaid bum.  Tough crowd around here GMDM.

by EricConley on Jan 29, 2007 9:01 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Really rough sabermatics on Meche
Lets say Meche more or less remains the same next year as he has been recently.

180 innings of 4.50ERA

His likely replacement on the Royals staff for those 180 innings was probably going to have an ERA of around 6.00 (a la Redman, Hernandez, etc.)

Thus over 180 Innings Meche will give up about 30 fewer runs than the people he will replace.

30 runs roughly equals a swing of three losses into wins.  Thus Meche, if he does not improve, will allow the Royals to win three more games next year than they would have without him.

For wins between #70 and #90, teams used to set $1M as the price.  I think probably that number is closer to $1.5M now after the recent upsurge in FA salaries.  (Wins before #70 should come cheaply.  Wins after #90 become much more expensive to buy.)

Thus Meche, if he does not improve, is worth about $5M more than we would have paid his replacements.  To bring back Redmand the Royals would have had to pay $3-$5M/per.  If we are talking Hernandez, the price would have been more like $1M.

by James Quinn on Jan 29, 2007 9:35 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

a 4.50 ERA
is gonna be hard to come by in the AL Central next year... I'd love it if Meche does that

by royalsreview on Jan 29, 2007 10:16 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

3 wins
to get us from 69 to 72 wins

ya!

by LeoBloom on Jan 29, 2007 12:58 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Come on Leo...
...let's be optimisitic.  I am bullish on Meche for no good reason at all.  I think he'll give the Royals something like 210 innings of 4.30 ERA.  (Maybe I need that slap now.)  That will make him worth four wins.  Plus he'll take some presure off the bullpen, thus giving the team one more win.  (OK, this is really just a fan reaching for hope).  So signing Meche will add up to five extra wins!  Giving KC a 75-92 record, the bottom rung of "respectablity."

No joke, I do think the Royals will win 75 or more games next year.  God I love springtime.  Everything seems possible.

by James Quinn on Jan 30, 2007 10:41 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

As long as Meche doesn't implode
I think the hubub on the signing will die down... at least for awhile

but if he ever gets injured or has a bad year, it'll get talked about constantly

by royalsreview on Jan 29, 2007 10:17 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Rob
I've long been a Rob apologist, but I have to admit, he's been awfully dour this offseason. We have a new GM - a guy he actually liked. Maybe he's still feeling burned by his optimism going into 2004. But I would have thought a new GM would have ushered in a new era for Rob. Instead its still the glass-half-empty prognostications.

I wasn't thrilled about the Meche deal, and I'm not as sunny as some of the wide-eyed fanboys on Royals message boards are about it. I think he'll probably provide 12-14 wins per year with a 4.50-4.80 ERA if healthy. That's worth quite a bit in this market.

I guess my beef with Rob's pessimism on the deal is, so what if Meche sucks? The Royals are in their best financial position in decades. Even if Meche never throws a pitch, it will be a waste of money, but they can still build a winning team around his carcass of an arm. So why not take a gamble?

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jan 29, 2007 1:50 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

My problem with that line of thinking
If Meche sucks, will Glass be willing to open up the checkbook again?  

Even if Meche turns out to be decent, do we really have that much financial flexibility to make future moves?  Will we be able to sign another pitcher for $11mil/yr next off season? I think a lot of the reason why Glass was inclined to put up the dough for Meche was because he know Sweeney's contract would be off the books, as well as those of Redman, Elarton and Sanders.  

We're still going to have at least one glaring hole in the rotation for the next few years; I don't really see more than one or two of Greinke/Hochevar/Lumsden/Fisher making it in the pros.

by marbotty on Jan 29, 2007 2:42 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

yea...
Glass is certainly shown himself to be a "flexible" (read: random as hell) owner

his glee that people are giving him hell over the signing seems to reveal that he did it partly as a PR move, which could also mean that he is less committed to winning and more committed to having a good reputation

who knows... i certainly dont

FIRE BELL

by FireBell on Jan 29, 2007 8:46 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

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