At My Back I Always Hear... Rob Neyer
Sometime in the 1840s Tennyson remarked to a friend that he was haunted by a line from Marvell's "To His Coy Mistress" despite not being able to account fully for its sublimity.
But at my back I always hearConsidering the deep melancholy which pervaded Tennyson's youth and middle age, his inability to express (or admit) the power of Marvell's image is likely another example of droll English understatment. If not, only Tennysonian stupidity fits.
Time's winged chariot hurrying near
I thought of Tennyson and Marvell this afternoon while reading the latest Rob & Rany. (The post is actually a week old, but I put off reading it until this weekend as a kind of delayed gratification line.) As many of you know, Neyer takes Moore to task (again) for the Meche for $55 million moment in time:
As these things usually go, Rany dutifully plays good cop, arguing that Meche may become a #3 starter and that, finally, its simply a matter of methodological dispute, "I look at Moore's rationale for offering that contract, and while I don't agree with it, I respect the line of thinking enough to say, okay, it was a bad move, but it doesn't dim my estimation of Moore all that much". Rany plays the credibility card, as well as pointing to GMDM's pristine reputation within the game.
But at my back I always hear,
"Meche for 55 million" in my ear
For those of us under a certain age, Neyer has been a constant in our lives as fans. Back when he was a free writer on ESPN I had his url memorized (it ended with something like "mlb/columnists/neyer") and knew the weekly schedule of his columns. Similarly, the "Rob and Rany" exchange has been around for a long time. It was essentially a blog before there were blogs. And through it all, Neyer's been commenting on the Royals. The Royals-angle is a standard staple of his radio hits, interviews and chat sessions. Not surprisingly, he's been overwhelmingly critical.
And he's been right.
Because he "didn't play the game" and is associated with sabermetrics a certain segment of the Royals fanbase dismisses him as a negative nelly, as a "hater" or worse. Everytime a Neyer quote gets posted on a Royals message board the same stock responses come up, you might as well just post "Do you like Sweeney and why?" or "Is Barry Bonds a Cheater?". Like debates over global warming and abortion, people just like having the same debate over and over again, despite the fact that no one is gonna change their mind.
Does anyone wanna go back in time and defend Tony Muser, Allard's Oakland trades, the Roberto Hernandez deal, the Chuck Knoblauch deal, Colt, the Minky-Elarton-Grudz extravaganza and the like?
Unlike some columnists, Neyer's consistent. He damn near pioneered the "Jeter is a bad short-stop" analysis, and got ripped for three years before it became semi-mainstream. He also famously came around on Allard, singing praises in 2003-4 that he'd started to improve as a GM. Despite the strawman theory that he's simply Billy Beane's lapdog, he's given Beane proper lashings (the T-Long contract and the Kendall trade) when he's felt they were warranted.
As we've already established this off-season, for better or worse Meche for $55 million isn't going away. While ultimately, as a citizen, I can sit back and mutter some combination of "its not my money" and "dem ballplayers get paid insane money" as a mildly engaged fan who follows the team it remains a defining moment. In this case, both the contract itself and Neyer's disbelief in it always return to my mind. Whats Simmons line about those things that you hear from a girlfriend's past that change everything?
Right now the Meche deal is the equivalent of she was in a threeway with two guys. It effects everything.
Do you really want to disagree with him?
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23 comments
Comments
Rob Neyer
by lordbyronk on Jan 28, 2007 9:17 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
one thing you mentioned...
the royals really could use just generic innings from the rotation, and meche may provide that
then again, that was the idea with Redman and Self-Appointed Team Effort Inspector Scott Elarton
we'll see
by royalsreview on Jan 28, 2007 2:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ha!
I LOVE that nickname! Kudos!
by RoyalsRetro on Jan 29, 2007 1:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The thing I like about Neyer
by JM Barten on Jan 29, 2007 5:08 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
that is really true
by royalsreview on Jan 29, 2007 10:14 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Slap!
Look, I don't like paying $3 for a strong cup of coffee, but that is what it costs. I don't like that the Royals paid $11M/per for a starting pitcher, but that is what one costs. If the Royals didn't pay Meche $11M/per than the Cubs or the Jays were going to. The only difference between the KC contract and the others was 5 years vs. 4 years.
(You still fighting the argument.) But what if he never gets better? What if Col. Pecoto is right and were all screwed!?!?
(Two hard slaps) Sest La Gurrrr (Wayne's French accent was always off, read "C'est la guerre.") Every time you sign a free agent other teams want you have to pay him his market value. It the Royals are going to be good they need starting pitching. Not just next year kid, but the year after and the three years after that. Let's face it, in that orphanage Old Man Glass is running in Omaha there were no pitching reinforcements to be sent up. You can't make a pitcher out wishful thoughts, you gotta draft him and train him. You'll be pushing up your third crop of daisies before five good starting pitchers arrive from Omaha. We need some help and Meche was available and he was as good as it got and we paid the price.
(You are holding your head up now) But Sgt Rob says the Meche contract is a death trap and we'll never get past it.
(Me looking more understanding now) Kid, we got through the T-Long contract. We're almost through the Sweeney Line. Hell, we once had Lima bomb dropped right on us, but we got up, and sure we were sore, but we moved forward. I've seen the other options and Meche, of the second tier free agents available, was the second best. He might come after Padilla but he was better than Lilly and Batista. All those guys got paid. Hell, even Marquis got $7M/per. Think of those poor bastards in Company Cubs.
Now get back on the keyboard and do your job soldier. A lot of Royals fans are counting on you to keep our optimism up. The CO did what he had to. We needed help and he got us help, to hell with the money. Now let's advance. I want us to overrun Hill #Cleveland by the end of 2007 and it `ant gonna happen if we just sit here and worry about what we can't change. What most of us wouldn't change even if we could.
by James Quinn on Jan 28, 2007 11:15 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
one other thing...
but the cubs didn't give marquis a roster spot through 2012 either
ohh well, who knows, in Meche we trust
by royalsreview on Jan 28, 2007 4:33 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
In Meche we trust...
To run Meche down at this point is to let the terrorists win.
by James Quinn on Jan 28, 2007 4:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Plus
by James Quinn on Jan 28, 2007 5:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Attacking Meche
by FireBell on Jan 28, 2007 5:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Bad Pun
by lordbyronk on Jan 28, 2007 9:09 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
i think...
by FireBell on Jan 28, 2007 9:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
How many wins will Meche need?
by EricConley on Jan 29, 2007 9:01 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Really rough sabermatics on Meche
180 innings of 4.50ERA
His likely replacement on the Royals staff for those 180 innings was probably going to have an ERA of around 6.00 (a la Redman, Hernandez, etc.)
Thus over 180 Innings Meche will give up about 30 fewer runs than the people he will replace.
30 runs roughly equals a swing of three losses into wins. Thus Meche, if he does not improve, will allow the Royals to win three more games next year than they would have without him.
For wins between #70 and #90, teams used to set $1M as the price. I think probably that number is closer to $1.5M now after the recent upsurge in FA salaries. (Wins before #70 should come cheaply. Wins after #90 become much more expensive to buy.)
Thus Meche, if he does not improve, is worth about $5M more than we would have paid his replacements. To bring back Redmand the Royals would have had to pay $3-$5M/per. If we are talking Hernandez, the price would have been more like $1M.
by James Quinn on Jan 29, 2007 9:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
a 4.50 ERA
by royalsreview on Jan 29, 2007 10:16 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
3 wins
ya!
by LeoBloom on Jan 29, 2007 12:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Come on Leo...
No joke, I do think the Royals will win 75 or more games next year. God I love springtime. Everything seems possible.
by James Quinn on Jan 30, 2007 10:41 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
As long as Meche doesn't implode
but if he ever gets injured or has a bad year, it'll get talked about constantly
by royalsreview on Jan 29, 2007 10:17 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Rob
I wasn't thrilled about the Meche deal, and I'm not as sunny as some of the wide-eyed fanboys on Royals message boards are about it. I think he'll probably provide 12-14 wins per year with a 4.50-4.80 ERA if healthy. That's worth quite a bit in this market.
I guess my beef with Rob's pessimism on the deal is, so what if Meche sucks? The Royals are in their best financial position in decades. Even if Meche never throws a pitch, it will be a waste of money, but they can still build a winning team around his carcass of an arm. So why not take a gamble?
by RoyalsRetro on Jan 29, 2007 1:50 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
My problem with that line of thinking
Even if Meche turns out to be decent, do we really have that much financial flexibility to make future moves? Will we be able to sign another pitcher for $11mil/yr next off season? I think a lot of the reason why Glass was inclined to put up the dough for Meche was because he know Sweeney's contract would be off the books, as well as those of Redman, Elarton and Sanders.
We're still going to have at least one glaring hole in the rotation for the next few years; I don't really see more than one or two of Greinke/Hochevar/Lumsden/Fisher making it in the pros.
by marbotty on Jan 29, 2007 2:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
yea...
his glee that people are giving him hell over the signing seems to reveal that he did it partly as a PR move, which could also mean that he is less committed to winning and more committed to having a good reputation
who knows... i certainly dont
by FireBell on Jan 29, 2007 8:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

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