In yet another less-than-stellar mailbag today, the less-than-illustrious Dick Kaegel decides to answer an email question about whether Alex Gordon might be able to obtain certain statistical measures if he makes the team out of spring. (The numbers suggested by the questioner were 290 avg, 20 HR, 85 RBI, and 25 SB).
Apparently, this a-hole must have selected the question just so he could mock the poor guy. His response was to not even give the question serious consideration, instead, his response was something like: "Wow! Not even George Brett did that".
I will now proceed to defend the questioner, because he might know more about baseball than Kaegel, but what he does not have is the power of the podium afforded Kaegel by being the designated lackey for the team.
- Brett did not have the benefit of college baseball, nor did he have nearly the same minor league accomplishments that Gordon has.
- Minor league baseball stats are projectible, whether our dumb organization believes it or not. PECOTA is a widely accepted projection model, and it sure and the hell has Gordon pegged for closer to what the questioner proposed than what Brett did as a rookie.
- This is an example of picking one extreme example to make your point, while ignoring all others. Kaegel picked a Hall of Famer, who happened to start quite a bit slower than many HOFs do, to make his point. In addition, some players actually come close to peaking their rookie seasons. Take a look at Fred Lynn and Kevin Seitzer.
- Don't like stats, Dick? Then how about listening to scouts? Numerous scouts, prior to LAST SEASON, NOT THIS ONE, were already saying Gordon was the best player in our camp!!!!! I would venture to say they will probably be saying the same this spring. In fact, Teahen might be the only other guy mentioned in the discussion, IMHO.
Lesson learned? Well, I guess you need to be aware when you are reading potential propoganda. A website run by the team is bound to have a different (read, less than objective) agenda than most intelligent fans want to hear.
I truly hope Gordon makes the team out of spring now, and makes Kaegel look like an idiot. (Well, I should say even more of an idiot than he already is). Personally, assuming he makes the team and stays healthy and the manager doesn't decide to bat him 8th behind Berroa or something, I could see Gordon obtaining the figures stated by the questioner. The only number I would say is too high might be the SB figure - although I'm sure he would steal 10-15.