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Brett Saberhagen: Like an Enormous Yes

So this is what the off-season is like: the exciting but slightly insane free agent bonanza has been put to bed but we're still virtually eras away from pitchers and catchers reporting. Sure, there's the inevitable Hall of Fame posturing to look forward to later today, but thats a single news item, possibly about a four hour cycle of press release and reaction at best. Despite the strangely warm weather, it really is the dead of winter.

Nevertheless, if you're cruising this page on January 8th, you're either borderline insane or someone who knows no off-season. For goodness sakes, we've already left all semblence of Holiday-dome behind, leaving the Epiphany in the dust this weekend along with any faint vestige of "the New Year" with the finally, mercifully, completed Amateur Debating Society of America season (also known as "College Football").

So like a bored, painfully-awake passenger on some late 20th century bus ride from Vegas to Tucson, we've got nothing but time to kill.

We've entered the Desert Bus portion of the off-season.

How about a few words on Brett Saberhagen then?

Dick Kaegel did a good job profiling Sabes career over on the official site this week. Although its quite odd to think about, as Keith Woolner pointed out on BP UnFiltered this week, Saberhagen is basically the same age as the still-pitching Randy Johnson, a legitimately awe-inspiring tribute to the tall guy. Kaegel's piece essentially paint's Sabes as a laid-back, down-to-earth, appreciative guy:

Saberhagen feels that a heavy workload in his young days with the Royals -- he pitched 257 innings in 1987, 260 in '88 and 262 in '89 -- might have been a factor in his right shoulder problems later on.

Not that he has any regrets.

"I just feel fortunate to have played baseball," he said. "There are so many people who would have loved to have played the game and gone out there and put a uniform on day in and day out and never did."

Thats the verbal equivalent of crack-cocaine to the average fan: no bitching, awareness of how awesome his job was and the proverbial "respect for the game". The only possible way such sentiments could be improved would be to either mention the troops, steroids and to complain about ticket prices.

While there has been some discussion of Kaegel's objectivity on this site, I don't think you can paint this as a honey-dipped puff piece. Maybe Sabes is just a good guy. He certainly doesn't sound like a man who once threw a firecracker at a group of reporters, now does he? Nor does it sound like a guy who sprayed reporters with a water gun filled with bleach. I have no doubt that the media invented those stories to defend their horrible crimes against humanity and that Saberhagen loves the written word, loves blogs and will eventually become a reporter himself. This is the traditional career-path for many ex-athletes turned high school coaches after all. Well, at least for the one's that don't become poets.

At least the memories live on. As Longfellow said, "I find my lost youth again", here in photos from cnnsi, and in Sabes' own memories of bleach-clean reporters.

Checking Saberhagen's stats what jumps out to me are the ERA+s from his dominant years: 145 in '85, 178 in '89, 152 in '94 and even a 172 in 1999. Then theres the two Cy Youngs, 3 All-Star selections (oddly in different seasons than his Cys) and the dream-like 1985 Series -- an event that I candidly admit I have no recollection of -- above all else.

Of course, Saberhagen will always be linked with Mark Gubicza (profiled on RR here ), his fellow '84 rookie and Royal pitching legend. While Sabes was better, Gubes was the guy who stayed with the team, all the way through the bitter collapse of the '80s talent base. Despite the fact that Gubicza started 101 more games as a Royal, the Royals actually inducted Sabes into the team Hall of Fame first, an odd gesture likely either random or motivated by some long-running feud between sundry parties I've never met. (Take your pick.) I think there's also the Midwestern inferiority complex at work here, as Saberhagen didn't just leave the Royals, he went to the Mets and eventually the Red Sox, two utterly big-money, definitively east-coast teams. Considering Kansas City has an complex regarding a perceived cultural failing vis-a-vis St. Louis, you can imagine the attitude towards New York or the Hub.

To make matters worse, as a Met he was one of the highest-paid players in baseball, and he even went corporate as a Red Sock, cutting the semi-mullet off. More than one bitter Royal fan rooted against him during his Mets-era, especially during the famous 1993 "Worst Team Money Can Buy" season.

Ouch.

But the Royal legacy is there too, and given the pathetic state of the team's pitching staff since the mid-90s, it almost looms even larger. Saberhagen wasn't the first guy to get paid for his best seasons year's after having them and he won't be the last. Ditto for the aforementioned "pranks" on the scribes of Gotham. Plus, it was the early 90s, the Arsenio Hall Era if you will; we'd call that biological warfare now, but back then it was just being a jerk/funny. But returning to the matter at hand, here's Sabes rank in team history:

-------------

Saberhagen's All-Time Royal Rankings:

Innings Pitched: 1660.1 (6th, 40 behind 5th place Larry Gura)
Games Started: 226 (5th, 49 behind 4th place Kevin Appier)
Wins: 110 (6th, 1 behind 5th place Larry Gura
Complete Games: 64 (3rd, 24 behind 2nd place Paul Splittorff)
Strikeouts: 1093 (4th, 230 behind 3rd place Dennis Leonard)
Balks: 8 (5th, one behind 4th place Jeff Montgomery)

Side note:I just had to throw the balks in there, since it makes about as much sense as looking at Wins or any kind of rate stat on these kind of lists. The franchise race in balks is actually now an eternal death-match between Charlie Leibrandt and Bud Black, who are tied at 14. Considering Black racked up his balks in 280 fewer innings (1257 to 977) I think he should probably get the nod. Leibrandt's 6-balk 1980 in Cincinatti was pretty impressive, but doesn't factor in our Royals-based universe however. Speaking of Saberhagen, his balkingest season was 1985, when he racked up three illegal hesitations en route to the Cy Young and World Series.

-------------

By law, I'm required to pontificate upon Saberhagen's Hall of Fame candidacy now, preferably with the help of the following template:

"You can't tell this by looking at his stats, but [insert player] carried this team down the stretch/through the playoffs in [insert year]. His [insert character trait] had [insert completely unverifiable cause-effect relationship] upon the team, and there was no one in [insert city/region] who had any doubt that the [insert team] would prevail."

With humblest apologies, I don't have that card in me anymore. By any measure (Black Ink, Gray Ink, the Keltner List, etc.) he isn't a Hall of Famer, although he may indeed be an inner-circle member of the Hall of Very Good, or what Marc Normandin calls the Ray Lankford Wing of the Hall of Fame. Like Prussia, the Police or the British Office, Saberhagen had a short but memorable period of dominance which ended a little too soon. There are certainly worse fates, especially in light of the roughly $47,000,000 the man pulled in thrown a baseball around and wearing uncomfortable polyester pants.

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What I remember about 1989 was two things:
  1. Sabehagen was absolutely awesome. Check out his first half stats that year - he was unbelievably good.
  2. Billy Gardner was the manager who possibly could have prevented arm troubles for Sabes. I recall reading a sabermetric article somewhere detailing how many times Sabes was left in to complete a game that first half of 1989 despite the Royals being ahead by 5, 6, 7, or even more runs. Just plain stupid.
Of course, we can't really prove the workload caused the arm troubles, but considering his frail looking body type, one would have thought more prudent use of Sabes would have been in order.

The two best pitchers in Royals history (by that I mean the guys with the best stuff, not necessarily the best statistical careers) both suffered devestating injuries that derailed potential HOF careers. I'm sure every one can guess the other guy I'm referring to - Steve Busby.

by loyal2s dad on Jan 9, 2007 10:35 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Even-odd
Bret Saberhagen in Even Years

68-65 1159.1 IP 1154 H 501 R 461 ER 221 BB 767 K 3.58

Per 30 Starts
12-12 207 IP 206 H 89 R 82 ER 39 BB 137 K 3.57

Bret Saberhagen in Odd Years

99-52 1403.1 IP 1298 H 535 R 491 ER 250 BB 948 K 3.15

Per 30 Starts

15-8 207.1 IP 192 H 79 R 73 ER 37 BB 140 K

Bret Saberhagen in Even Years in KC

36-48 709.1 IP 720 H 322 R 292 ER 152 BB 443 K 3.70

Per 30 Starts

11-14 217 IP 220 H 99 R 89 ER 47 BB 136 K 3.69

Bret Saberhagen in Odd Years in KC

74-30 951 IP 831 H 328 R 301 ER 179 BB 650 K 2.85

Per 30 Starts

17-7 223 IP 195 H 77 R 71 ER 42 BB 152 K 2.87

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jan 9, 2007 11:49 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

the even-odd thing is classic
great stuff Retro...

i wonder if its a consequence of his always being semi-injured?

Sabes was the last guy to be treated like it was still the 1920s out there

by LeoBloom on Jan 9, 2007 12:47 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

thankx
thanks for running theses numbers Royals Retro
FIRE BELL

by FireBell on Jan 9, 2007 3:13 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Mets, Red Sox
I think there's also the Midwestern inferiority complex at work here, as Saberhagen didn't just leave the Royals, he went to the Mets and eventually the Red Sox, two utterly big-money, definitively east-coast teams.

I think you're reading too much into it. Sabes was just simply a better pitcher, and the most important pitcher on the only World Championship team in franchise history. Sabes was traded to the Mets, it wasn't like he spurned a contract offer by the Royals to go to the Big Apple. By the time he was signed in Boston, he was an oft-injured gamble and could have been signed for the same amount the Royals were paying Hector Carrasco.

BTW, another really interesting thing about Sabes is how excellent he got to be as a control pitcher.

1994 177.1 IP 143 K 13 BB
1995 153 IP 100 K 33 BB
1998 175 IP 100 K 29 BB

He's still 35th all time in fewest walks/innings and that '94 season was the 33rd best control season of all-time.

Gubicza also became a control pitcher late in his career, leading the league in fewest walks/innings in '94, and finishing 5th in the league in the category in '95.

The Royals certainly don't churn out pitchers like they did in the 80s! Sabes, Gubie, Jackson, Cone, Melido Perez, Scott Bankhead!

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jan 9, 2007 11:58 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

the Mets trade
royals send sabes and Bill Pecota to the Mets for Kevin McReynolds, Gregg Jeffries, and Keith Miller

by LeoBloom on Jan 9, 2007 12:49 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re:
My love for Saberhagen cannot be expressed in words

by Marc Normandin on Jan 9, 2007 12:27 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

jaffe's series
and its installment on this year's class of pitchers is up:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5799

here's what he wrote:

Bret Saberhagen was a more successful prodigy; he was a week shy of his 20th birthday when he debuted for the 1984 Royals. The timing couldn't have been better for the franchise, which had missed the playoffs twice in a row after winning the division (or in the case of the '81 strike, a share of it) in five of the previous six years. Along with Saberhagen, the Royals also came up with two other rookie hurlers, Danny Jackson and Mark Gubicza, and while none was instrumental in the team's return to the top of the AL West that year, they all played a major role in helping the Royals to their first World Championship the following season. Saberhagen led the way, winning the AL Cy Young award on the strength of a 20-6, 2.87 ERA season (10.2 WARP) and the World Series MVP thanks to complete game victories in Games Three and Seven, the latter a shutout.

He struggled the following year (7-12, 4.15 ERA, 4.4 WARP), and would continue this bizarre pattern of strong odd-numbered years and lackluster even-numbered ones--including another Cy Young-winning, 11.7 WARP campaign in 1989--throughout his eight years in K.C.:

       W   L  ERA   WARP
Even  36  48  3.70  20.1

Odd   74  30  2.85  39.6

The Royals traded Saberhagen to the Mets after the 1991 season, but by that point he was already struggling with shoulder problems likely linked to averaging 260 innings a year from ages 23 to 25. Bouncing from New York to Colorado to Boston, he managed more than 24 starts just once in the next ten seasons, and he made just 15 between 1995 and 1997. When he wasn't convalescing or rehabbing he was pretty good, particularly with Boston in 1998 and '99 (a combined 11.8 WARP), but his ultimate claim to fame is a painful one: his 1,016 days on the disabled list are the most in baseball history, according to Gary Gillette in the ESPN Baseball Encyclopedia. That's roughly five and a half seasons. Ouch.

by royalsreview on Jan 9, 2007 2:08 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Sabes
got 7 votes

5 less than Paul O'Neil!!

this is an outrage

FIRE BELL

by FireBell on Jan 9, 2007 2:27 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Typical
Typical East-Coast NY media bias!!!
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jan 9, 2007 3:00 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Sabes would have declined
Sabes would have declined induction anyway! Good to see the voters complied with his request!
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jan 9, 2007 3:04 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

i had forgotten that story
sorta strange
FIRE BELL

by FireBell on Jan 9, 2007 3:12 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

prussia
is strong

by FlintHillsRoyal on Jan 9, 2007 7:50 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

DUUUUUDDDE...
Sabe sticking up for Pete Rose...AWESOME...he just tripled my adolescent affection for him
Buy the ticket, take the ride.

by PhattStairs on Jan 9, 2007 8:00 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

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