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And the Winner of the 2007 Andy Sisco Award is... Andy Sisco

Back in February, inspired by a diary by daveyork, Royals Review named the pre-season nominees of the 2007 Andy Sisco Award, an honor given to the Royal pitcher who most horribly regresses and lets us down after a promising season the year before. While we could certainly break this down in greater detail, Sisco became the award's namesake for the following:

Andy Sisco ERA as a Royal:

2005: 3.11
2006: 7.10

Sisco's epic meltdown sabotaged a bullpen that wasn't very good to begin with, contributing to the Royals amazing 971 runs allowed in 2006, the 21st highest total not in team history, not in AL history, not since 1968, but ever.

In the spirit of the Sisco Award you needed to have a) done well the previous year b) been a Royal the previous year and c) prompted a fair amount of hope from the fans. Despite such a poor staff, there were a few guys that the Royals Nation, Confederacy, Loose Affiliation of Indepedent City-States who Agree to a Common Defense were excited about as the Royals broke for Spring Training in 2007. Neverthless, they obviously also had to give us reason to consider they might not be up to steam in 2007, which is why they were Sisco Nominees and not sleeper picks for the Cy Young. Those nominees were:

- Luke Hudson: As strange it may be to recall, people were pretty high on this obscure journeyman just a few months ago. Hudson had some horrible starts in 2006, but opened his season with a 3.16 ERA in July and a 4.02 ERA in September, with a season ERA of 4.85. Pretty much right on the dividing line between not-the-end-of-the-world and bad. Given Hudson's track record he could have been this year's Brian Bannister or this year's Odalis Perez.

- Joe Nelson: Nelson came out of obscurity to post a 4.43 ERA out of the 'pen in 2006 and had an ERA as low as 1.11 as late as August. Nelson did well in the vaunted closer's role, and pitched 2.2 scoreless innings against the Tigers in the season finale to boot. Like Hudson in many ways, Nelson really offered no reason to believe he might be an elite player, and he mixed long stretches of good pitching with a mostly disastrous month.

- Todd Wellemeyer: Stop me if you've heard this before: Wellemeyer emerged around mid-season as an effective pitcher for the Royals for short-stretches of time. Wellemeyer had worn many uniforms prior to donning the blue and white... Wellemeyer had a career year with the 2006 Royals, posting his best ERA+ ever, despite an awesome 1:1 K to BB ratio (33 of each). Still, we were pretty starved for guys that could get strikeouts back then (still are actually) so it all seemed pretty nice.

Last winter, I listed the pre-season odds as such:

The 2007 Andy Sisco Awards Final Breakdown:

Luke Hudson: 50%
Joe Nelson: 20%
Todd Wellemeyer: 15%
Someone Else: 15%

So what happened?

Well, Hudson and Nelson both got hurt and pitched a total of two innings combined for the Royals in 2007. (Hudson made four starts in AA and AAA combined, as well as a brief Royal cameo, Nelson didn't pitch at all.) While certainly disappointing, this isn't quite part of the Sisco path. Pitching like garbage is. In this way the question is akin to the old theological debate about whether God would rather punish us with annihilation or eternal torture. Nelson was the obliteration, with Sisco the hellfire.

Which brings us to Wellemeyer.

The many faces of Wellemeyer.

As both the Sisco Preview and numerous comments point out, no one was really excited about Welly, which meant he would have to be extraordinarily bad, possibly as a very regular player, to really snag the award. Back in 2005 we actually were excited about Andy Sisco and thought he was a major find for some guy named Allard Baird (remember him?). Not quite so with Welly.

Well, Wellemeyer was awful, but was he awful enough? I hate to go all subjective and BBWAA on ya, but he just doesn't feel like a Sisco Award winner to me, no matter what the fancy numbers say. Yes, the numbers are overwhelmingly bad: a 10.34 ERA as a Royal, but in just 15.7 innings. More than that, he was off the team after May 10th, which was before Sweeney's second DL stint of the year, before Buddy had ever buried Huber or hit Costa cleanup and before Gordo had pulled his average above .175. Thats too early a divorce to be a Sisco winner, because not enough damage had been done. As you will recall, Sisco lasted the entire 2006 campaign in that award-defining season, appearing in 65 games. Which, perhaps appropriately, brings us to the 2007 Award Winner:

The Winner of the 2007 Andy Sisco Award is Andy Sisco

The fact that the White Sox acquired Sisco via trade indicates they believed in him, at least a little bit. Many observers, myself included, believed that the bullpen would be one of the strengths of the ChiSox, with Sisco, MacDougal, Jenks, etc offering a variety of live-arms that Cooper and Ozzie would deploy wisely, ala 2005. Just like the Royals had done the year before, the White Sox saw the promise of Sisco's 2005 season. Moreover, many Royals fans, puzzled and annoyed by the Gload trade, remembered the promise of Sisco with perhaps too much ardor.

Instead, Andy posted an even worse than before ERA of 8.36, all in April and May, when the White Sox went a combined 24-25, serving notice that they would not be a contending team in 2007.

Because the 2006 Royals produced so few legitimate candidates for the Award, and because those that did were both inherently weak and hardly pitched at all, we should consider 2007 a special year. Almost like the 2000 Presidential Election, Robert Southey being named Poet Laureate, the year Steely Dan won Album of the Year at the Grammy's for Two Against Nature or that time Barry Larkin won the NL MVP, I am proud to name Andy Sisco the winner of the Andy Sisco Award.

-------

Who are the favorites for 2008? Please don't tell me Soria is one of them...

0 recs | Comment 32 comments

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I wouldn't
have it any other way...kudos...and a big Congratulations to Andy

by Buck McCoy on Oct 11, 2007 3:28 AM EDT   0 recs

yes!
I knew the big guy could do it.

Early Sisco nominees for 2008:

Gil Meche

Why he'll win  
Meche has had ERA's of nearly 4.50 runs or higher in five of his last six years, prior to his excellent 2007 (3.67 ERA), meaning a regression to the norm is pretty likely.  

He pitched a career high number of innings this year, but his strikeouts didn't increase accordingly.  In fact, despite pitching 30 more innings, he ended up with the exact same number of K's (156) as 2006, when he posted a rather uninspiring 4.48 ERA.

Why he won't
While his strikeout rate decreased, he easily had the best walk rate of his career, along with his best HR rate since he was injured in 2000.  Assuming those rates hold, there's no reason to think he can't perform at a similar level in 2008, even with the dropoff in K's.

Plus, even if he reverts to his old form, we're still looking at a pitcher who will only give up around 4.5 runs per nine innings.  While that's probably not worth $11 million, that's still a pretty welcome sight for a team that's had to contend with stiffs like May, Elarton, Anderson, and Lima in the starting lineup.

Brian Bannister

Why he'll win
The rather pedestrian K/9 is troubling, but what inspires real fear was his huge increase in innings pitched this year, from 80 in 2006 to 180 in 2007.  History has shown that pitchers who have such enormous leaps in innings pitched from one year to another are prime injury candidates.  His rather low BABIP (.264) is also cause for concern.

Why he won't
Bannister's shown he can have success even without striking out a lot of batters.  Among ML starters, that would make him a rare breed.  However, rare breed != mythological creature, so as long as continues to be stingy with walks and homeruns, he'll be okay.

Joakim Soria

Why he'll win
Let's see: 22 year old fireballer with a K/9 above 9, Rule 5 pick, never pitched above A ball prior to pro debut.  Sound like anyone we know?

Why he won't
As great as Sisco's initial year was with the Royals, Soria's was far superior, in pretty much every facet of the game.  And presumably his work ethic is better, too -- until we see Soria eating a hotdog in the stands during the middle of a game, we have to assume he's not going to have a meltdown of Sisco-an proportions.

Zach Greinke

Why he'll win
Heralded, hated, heralded again.  Remember all of the Saberhagen comparisons when he first came up?  Perhaps he's cursed to have the same even-odd year of great year/terrible year that plagued Bret.  (I'm not counting 2006.)  Also, there's questions remaining about his mental stability.

Why he won't
I have complete confidence Zach's gotten past any issues he had prior to the 2006 season.  Performance wise, he was great in 2007, and what's most encouraging was that, in contrast to Bannister, he actually posted a very high BABIP of .337 (18th highest in the league), so there's a good chance he'll even pitch better in 2008.

I could even see Zach as a darkhorse candidate for a different award (Cy Young).  But even if he falters slightly and posts an ERA somewhere in the 4's, it should disqualify him from Sisco Award consideration.  

by marbotty on Oct 11, 2007 5:27 AM EDT   0 recs

whoa, sorry, that was a NHZ-sized comment
Perhaps that would have been better suited in the diaries.

One last thought:  If 11 innings pitched is enough of a baseline for Sisco Award consideration, Hochevar becomes my choice for 2008 S.A. frontrunner.

I don't see him coming anywhere close to a 2.13 ERA next year, especially if he has a similar BB:K ratio again, and especially if he is a starter.  (But Sisco Award is all about reasonable expectations.  I think most people will be happy with an ERA under 5.00, right?)

by marbotty on Oct 11, 2007 5:34 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

NHZ-sized comment
I laughed out loud at that. Good to see I'm entering this blog's terminology. :)
"True friends stab you in the front."-Oscar Wilde.

by NHZ on Oct 11, 2007 10:38 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Huh?
Wow, an upset!  I wasn't thinking the player could be on another team.  The Sox can keep Sisco and the bag of tacos we traded him for.  I'll take Gload and his chance to explode anyday.  

by lordbyronk on Oct 11, 2007 8:24 AM EDT   0 recs

Luke Hudson
actually pitched 2 innings for the Royals this year, not zero.
Chaim Mattis Keller New York City's # 1 Royals fan!

by cmkeller on Oct 11, 2007 8:42 AM EDT   0 recs

fixed it...
i had no memory of that

by royalsreview on Oct 11, 2007 12:13 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I keep a list
of all Royals players and the year(s) they played for the team - keeps my baseball card collection in order. I had Hudson down as "2006-2007".
Chaim Mattis Keller New York City's # 1 Royals fan!

by cmkeller on Oct 11, 2007 1:44 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Not that it matters...
honor given to the Royal pitcher who most horribly regresses and lets us down after a promising season the year before

If you follow a horrible season (7.10 ERA) with a worse season (8.38 ERA), does that count as regression after a promising season?

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Oct 11, 2007 8:46 AM EDT   0 recs

Big congratulations to that sack of crap Sisco.
Now I come to that time of year I hate so much.  What Royal pitcher might crap out in 2008.

I hate to say it, but the two most likely pitchers to go from promising to Siscoesque are:

  1. Brian Bannister - There just was nothing in that career that suggested he'd pitch like he did in 2007.  I can easily see him sliding back to an ERA in the upper 4's and being what we all thought he might be a year ago, a not-terrible back end starter.  Bannister is my pre-season front runner.  And I really hope I am dead wrong.
  2. Zack Grenkie - Who knows what he will do next year.  No sense in pretending I have any insight on what will happen with him from year to year.  He could be even better next year, or he could lay a crap nine Katie Courics large.
Gobble, Soria and Hochevar also might gravely disappoint, but somehow I think they will all be at least satisfactory next year.  For whatever reason I just do not see Gobble or Soria pitching badly in 2008.  Maybe they will slip, but I just don't see badness coming from them.  And Hochevar certainly gave us reason for hope in September but I don't know how widespread the expectation is that he will break camp as part of the roster.  I think most Royals fans would see even fifty innings of not terrible pitching in the big league as a decent year from Hochevar in 2008.

by James Quinn on Oct 11, 2007 9:56 AM EDT   0 recs

Bannister and Soria have to be the front runners
for a couple of reasons.  One is their 2007 performances were so strong.  They held the Royals staff together along with Meche for the entire year.  Without any track record to suggest they would be so successful, both were key reasons why KC's pitching was much improved over the historic 2006 staff.

Going into 2008, KC is counting on them.  They are young and could regress - but I don't think they will be "Sisco horrible."  Meche is more established and it would surprise me if he wasn't quite as good as 2007 but he was a top 15 starter in AL without the wins to show it.

Hochevar doesn't work for me since he really didn't put up any innings except the September look and see.  Greinke is always a possibility but I believe he has outgrown some of the inconsistency.  

by daveyork on Oct 11, 2007 10:06 AM EDT   0 recs

It would NOT surprise me if he weren't as good in
2008.  Meche had a great year.  With league average run support, he could have easily had 4-7 more wins instead of losses or ND.  

by daveyork on Oct 11, 2007 10:07 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I'd nominate Leo Nunez,
but apparently I'm the only one who saw great things out of him in 2007, so maybe he doesn't fit the criteria?

 The Royals brass did not seem to appreciate what he did, as he was nearly traded, then virtually ignored by Bell in September, despite pitching VERY WELL in all but one of his starts, and pitching OUTSTANDING in the minors prior to his recall.

I certainly hope he doesn't win this award in 2008!

by loyal2s dad on Oct 11, 2007 10:37 AM EDT   0 recs

I like Nunez to pitch well
Although that's partly because the Royals (unwisely) don't view him as a candidate for the rotation.  I guess he's smallish, but that's the same sort of argument that was levied at guys like Pedro Martinez and Tim Lincecum.  

It's not like he's out there getting tackled, so I don't know why his size is a concern.  Teaching baseball folk to think outside of the box is sort of a Sisyphean task: you can throw as many statistics and case studies out there as possible, but they're still not going to listen.

by marbotty on Oct 13, 2007 5:16 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Soria really fits the bill
very Sisco esque

didn't Sisco also pitch in Mexico?

by royalsreview on Oct 11, 2007 12:14 PM EDT   0 recs

Thankfully Soria has more talent
Sisco has one gift: velocity.  That's it.  Soria has multiple good pitches and control.  He may regress, but if he pulls a Sisco, I'll eat my favorite Royals cap.
I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Oct 11, 2007 1:04 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

He also has height
6' 10" is intimidating. Of course, it takes pitching talent and not just intimidation to be Randy Johnson.
Chaim Mattis Keller New York City's # 1 Royals fan!

by cmkeller on Oct 11, 2007 1:46 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

True, but I think heigh is overrated
The natural downward plane is a nice little asset, but I think the operative word there is little.  I don't think it's a big deal.  And if you have zero control (as well as a horrible attitude and work ethic), it doesn't matter if you are 10 feet tall.
I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Oct 11, 2007 1:51 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

sisco did pitch in mexico
That was how the infamous taco incident took place.  (And the progenesitor for my Soria-hotdog comment above).

by marbotty on Oct 13, 2007 5:20 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

sisco did pitch in mexico
That was how the infamous taco incident took place.  (And the progenitor for my Soria-hotdog comment above).

by marbotty on Oct 13, 2007 5:21 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I go with John Bale...
I think he did his best work this year and will be on his way back to Japan by June.

by grudz69 on Oct 11, 2007 1:08 PM EDT   0 recs

I propose a re-name
Andy Sisco isn't remotely the worst "raised-expectations" offender in Royals history, not even in recent Royals history. I'd name this award for Curtis Leskanic, who gave us an ERA under 2 in 2003, and then OVER 8 in 2004. He's one of many guys who turned our high expectations in 2004 into a low so deep even sunny Tony Pena couldn't "Creemos".
Chaim Mattis Keller New York City's # 1 Royals fan!

by cmkeller on Oct 11, 2007 1:51 PM EDT   0 recs

Strange I didn't remember that
for some reason I thought he just lost his pitching ability.
Chaim Mattis Keller New York City's # 1 Royals fan!

by cmkeller on Oct 11, 2007 2:37 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

nor is Quinn
Consider Bob Hamelin, who went from a 146 OPS+ his rookie year to 52 the following.

The good thing about Quinn and Sisco, though, is that both had reputations of having a bad attitude, which makes them easier to dislike.

by Moose Tacos on Oct 11, 2007 2:19 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

So pathetic that we dont even have good candys
for an ironic award

by FlintHillsRoyal on Oct 11, 2007 3:38 PM EDT   0 recs

Pathetic?
Isn't it good to not have real candidates for an award for the most disappointing pitcher?
I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Oct 11, 2007 3:46 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I will still keep Scotty Elarton in my heart
as the worse thing to happen to the pitching staff in 07.  My he roam the prairies with out a care in the world.

by grudz69 on Oct 12, 2007 12:22 PM EDT   0 recs

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