And the Winner of the 2007 Andy Sisco Award is... Andy Sisco
Back in February, inspired by a diary by daveyork, Royals Review named the pre-season nominees of the 2007 Andy Sisco Award, an honor given to the Royal pitcher who most horribly regresses and lets us down after a promising season the year before. While we could certainly break this down in greater detail, Sisco became the award's namesake for the following:
2005: 3.11
2006: 7.10

In the spirit of the Sisco Award you needed to have a) done well the previous year b) been a Royal the previous year and c) prompted a fair amount of hope from the fans. Despite such a poor staff, there were a few guys that the Royals Nation, Confederacy, Loose Affiliation of Indepedent City-States who Agree to a Common Defense were excited about as the Royals broke for Spring Training in 2007. Neverthless, they obviously also had to give us reason to consider they might not be up to steam in 2007, which is why they were Sisco Nominees and not sleeper picks for the Cy Young. Those nominees were:
- Luke Hudson: As strange it may be to recall, people were pretty high on this obscure journeyman just a few months ago. Hudson had some horrible starts in 2006, but opened his season with a 3.16 ERA in July and a 4.02 ERA in September, with a season ERA of 4.85. Pretty much right on the dividing line between not-the-end-of-the-world and bad. Given Hudson's track record he could have been this year's Brian Bannister or this year's Odalis Perez.
- Joe Nelson: Nelson came out of obscurity to post a 4.43 ERA out of the 'pen in 2006 and had an ERA as low as 1.11 as late as August. Nelson did well in the vaunted closer's role, and pitched 2.2 scoreless innings against the Tigers in the season finale to boot. Like Hudson in many ways, Nelson really offered no reason to believe he might be an elite player, and he mixed long stretches of good pitching with a mostly disastrous month.
- Todd Wellemeyer: Stop me if you've heard this before: Wellemeyer emerged around mid-season as an effective pitcher for the Royals for short-stretches of time. Wellemeyer had worn many uniforms prior to donning the blue and white... Wellemeyer had a career year with the 2006 Royals, posting his best ERA+ ever, despite an awesome 1:1 K to BB ratio (33 of each). Still, we were pretty starved for guys that could get strikeouts back then (still are actually) so it all seemed pretty nice.
Last winter, I listed the pre-season odds as such:
The 2007 Andy Sisco Awards Final Breakdown:
Luke Hudson: 50%
Joe Nelson: 20%
Todd Wellemeyer: 15%
Someone Else: 15%
So what happened?
Well, Hudson and Nelson both got hurt and pitched a total of two innings combined for the Royals in 2007. (Hudson made four starts in AA and AAA combined, as well as a brief Royal cameo, Nelson didn't pitch at all.) While certainly disappointing, this isn't quite part of the Sisco path. Pitching like garbage is. In this way the question is akin to the old theological debate about whether God would rather punish us with annihilation or eternal torture. Nelson was the obliteration, with Sisco the hellfire.
Which brings us to Wellemeyer.



The many faces of Wellemeyer.
As both the Sisco Preview and numerous comments point out, no one was really excited about Welly, which meant he would have to be extraordinarily bad, possibly as a very regular player, to really snag the award. Back in 2005 we actually were excited about Andy Sisco and thought he was a major find for some guy named Allard Baird (remember him?). Not quite so with Welly.
Well, Wellemeyer was awful, but was he awful enough? I hate to go all subjective and BBWAA on ya, but he just doesn't feel like a Sisco Award winner to me, no matter what the fancy numbers say. Yes, the numbers are overwhelmingly bad: a 10.34 ERA as a Royal, but in just 15.7 innings. More than that, he was off the team after May 10th, which was before Sweeney's second DL stint of the year, before Buddy had ever buried Huber or hit Costa cleanup and before Gordo had pulled his average above .175. Thats too early a divorce to be a Sisco winner, because not enough damage had been done. As you will recall, Sisco lasted the entire 2006 campaign in that award-defining season, appearing in 65 games. Which, perhaps appropriately, brings us to the 2007 Award Winner:
The Winner of the 2007 Andy Sisco Award is Andy Sisco
The fact that the White Sox acquired Sisco via trade indicates they believed in him, at least a little bit. Many observers, myself included, believed that the bullpen would be one of the strengths of the ChiSox, with Sisco, MacDougal, Jenks, etc offering a variety of live-arms that Cooper and Ozzie would deploy wisely, ala 2005. Just like the Royals had done the year before, the White Sox saw the promise of Sisco's 2005 season. Moreover, many Royals fans, puzzled and annoyed by the Gload trade, remembered the promise of Sisco with perhaps too much ardor.
Instead, Andy posted an even worse than before ERA of 8.36, all in April and May, when the White Sox went a combined 24-25, serving notice that they would not be a contending team in 2007.
Because the 2006 Royals produced so few legitimate candidates for the Award, and because those that did were both inherently weak and hardly pitched at all, we should consider 2007 a special year. Almost like the 2000 Presidential Election, Robert Southey being named Poet Laureate, the year Steely Dan won Album of the Year at the Grammy's for Two Against Nature or that time Barry Larkin won the NL MVP, I am proud to name Andy Sisco the winner of the Andy Sisco Award.
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Who are the favorites for 2008? Please don't tell me Soria is one of them...
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I wouldn't
by Buck McCoy on Oct 11, 2007 3:28 AM EDT 0 recs
yes!
Early Sisco nominees for 2008:
Gil Meche
Why he'll win
Meche has had ERA's of nearly 4.50 runs or higher in five of his last six years, prior to his excellent 2007 (3.67 ERA), meaning a regression to the norm is pretty likely.
He pitched a career high number of innings this year, but his strikeouts didn't increase accordingly. In fact, despite pitching 30 more innings, he ended up with the exact same number of K's (156) as 2006, when he posted a rather uninspiring 4.48 ERA.
Why he won't
While his strikeout rate decreased, he easily had the best walk rate of his career, along with his best HR rate since he was injured in 2000. Assuming those rates hold, there's no reason to think he can't perform at a similar level in 2008, even with the dropoff in K's.
Plus, even if he reverts to his old form, we're still looking at a pitcher who will only give up around 4.5 runs per nine innings. While that's probably not worth $11 million, that's still a pretty welcome sight for a team that's had to contend with stiffs like May, Elarton, Anderson, and Lima in the starting lineup.
Brian Bannister
Why he'll win
The rather pedestrian K/9 is troubling, but what inspires real fear was his huge increase in innings pitched this year, from 80 in 2006 to 180 in 2007. History has shown that pitchers who have such enormous leaps in innings pitched from one year to another are prime injury candidates. His rather low BABIP (.264) is also cause for concern.
Why he won't
Bannister's shown he can have success even without striking out a lot of batters. Among ML starters, that would make him a rare breed. However, rare breed != mythological creature, so as long as continues to be stingy with walks and homeruns, he'll be okay.
Joakim Soria
Why he'll win
Let's see: 22 year old fireballer with a K/9 above 9, Rule 5 pick, never pitched above A ball prior to pro debut. Sound like anyone we know?
Why he won't
As great as Sisco's initial year was with the Royals, Soria's was far superior, in pretty much every facet of the game. And presumably his work ethic is better, too -- until we see Soria eating a hotdog in the stands during the middle of a game, we have to assume he's not going to have a meltdown of Sisco-an proportions.
Zach Greinke
Why he'll win
Heralded, hated, heralded again. Remember all of the Saberhagen comparisons when he first came up? Perhaps he's cursed to have the same even-odd year of great year/terrible year that plagued Bret. (I'm not counting 2006.) Also, there's questions remaining about his mental stability.
Why he won't
I have complete confidence Zach's gotten past any issues he had prior to the 2006 season. Performance wise, he was great in 2007, and what's most encouraging was that, in contrast to Bannister, he actually posted a very high BABIP of .337 (18th highest in the league), so there's a good chance he'll even pitch better in 2008.
I could even see Zach as a darkhorse candidate for a different award (Cy Young). But even if he falters slightly and posts an ERA somewhere in the 4's, it should disqualify him from Sisco Award consideration.
by marbotty on Oct 11, 2007 5:27 AM EDT 0 recs
whoa, sorry, that was a NHZ-sized comment
One last thought: If 11 innings pitched is enough of a baseline for Sisco Award consideration, Hochevar becomes my choice for 2008 S.A. frontrunner.
I don't see him coming anywhere close to a 2.13 ERA next year, especially if he has a similar BB:K ratio again, and especially if he is a starter. (But Sisco Award is all about reasonable expectations. I think most people will be happy with an ERA under 5.00, right?)
by marbotty on
Oct 11, 2007 5:34 AM EDT
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NHZ-sized comment
by NHZ on
Oct 11, 2007 10:38 PM EDT
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Huh?
by lordbyronk on Oct 11, 2007 8:24 AM EDT 0 recs
Luke Hudson
by cmkeller on Oct 11, 2007 8:42 AM EDT 0 recs
I keep a list
by cmkeller on
Oct 11, 2007 1:44 PM EDT
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Not that it matters...
If you follow a horrible season (7.10 ERA) with a worse season (8.38 ERA), does that count as regression after a promising season?
by NYRoyal on Oct 11, 2007 8:46 AM EDT 0 recs
Big congratulations to that sack of crap Sisco.
I hate to say it, but the two most likely pitchers to go from promising to Siscoesque are:
- Brian Bannister - There just was nothing in that career that suggested he'd pitch like he did in 2007. I can easily see him sliding back to an ERA in the upper 4's and being what we all thought he might be a year ago, a not-terrible back end starter. Bannister is my pre-season front runner. And I really hope I am dead wrong.
- Zack Grenkie - Who knows what he will do next year. No sense in pretending I have any insight on what will happen with him from year to year. He could be even better next year, or he could lay a crap nine Katie Courics large.
by James Quinn on Oct 11, 2007 9:56 AM EDT 0 recs
Bannister and Soria have to be the front runners
Going into 2008, KC is counting on them. They are young and could regress - but I don't think they will be "Sisco horrible." Meche is more established and it would surprise me if he wasn't quite as good as 2007 but he was a top 15 starter in AL without the wins to show it.
Hochevar doesn't work for me since he really didn't put up any innings except the September look and see. Greinke is always a possibility but I believe he has outgrown some of the inconsistency.
by daveyork on Oct 11, 2007 10:06 AM EDT 0 recs
It would NOT surprise me if he weren't as good in
by daveyork on
Oct 11, 2007 10:07 AM EDT
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I'd nominate Leo Nunez,
The Royals brass did not seem to appreciate what he did, as he was nearly traded, then virtually ignored by Bell in September, despite pitching VERY WELL in all but one of his starts, and pitching OUTSTANDING in the minors prior to his recall.
I certainly hope he doesn't win this award in 2008!
by loyal2s dad on Oct 11, 2007 10:37 AM EDT 0 recs
I like Nunez to pitch well
It's not like he's out there getting tackled, so I don't know why his size is a concern. Teaching baseball folk to think outside of the box is sort of a Sisyphean task: you can throw as many statistics and case studies out there as possible, but they're still not going to listen.
by marbotty on
Oct 13, 2007 5:16 PM EDT
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Soria really fits the bill
didn't Sisco also pitch in Mexico?
by royalsreview on Oct 11, 2007 12:14 PM EDT 0 recs
Thankfully Soria has more talent
by NYRoyal on
Oct 11, 2007 1:04 PM EDT
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He also has height
by cmkeller on
Oct 11, 2007 1:46 PM EDT
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True, but I think heigh is overrated
by NYRoyal on
Oct 11, 2007 1:51 PM EDT
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sisco did pitch in mexico
by marbotty on
Oct 13, 2007 5:20 PM EDT
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sisco did pitch in mexico
by marbotty on
Oct 13, 2007 5:21 PM EDT
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I go with John Bale...
by grudz69 on Oct 11, 2007 1:08 PM EDT 0 recs
I propose a re-name
by cmkeller on Oct 11, 2007 1:51 PM EDT 0 recs
Strange I didn't remember that
by cmkeller on
Oct 11, 2007 2:37 PM EDT
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nor is Quinn
The good thing about Quinn and Sisco, though, is that both had reputations of having a bad attitude, which makes them easier to dislike.
by Moose Tacos on
Oct 11, 2007 2:19 PM EDT
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So pathetic that we dont even have good candys
by FlintHillsRoyal on Oct 11, 2007 3:38 PM EDT 0 recs
Pathetic?
by NYRoyal on
Oct 11, 2007 3:46 PM EDT
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I will still keep Scotty Elarton in my heart
by grudz69 on Oct 12, 2007 12:22 PM EDT 0 recs










