Royals Interested in Guillen, Jenkins, and Hunter
by adschofield on Nov 6, 2007 12:02 AM EST
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PrintPer mlbtraderumors.com and Bob Dutton:
"I was waiting for someone to name a few players of interest to the Royals, and Bob Dutton came through tonight with some names.
Specifically, the team is after a run-producer, ideally a right-handed hitter. That puts Jose Guillen atop their list. Dayton Moore might need to go a little north of three years, $30MM to get him.
Failing that, the left-handed hitting Geoff Jenkins is on the radar. He'd probably go for a one-year, $6-7MM contract in my estimation.
Dutton also hints that Sammy Sosa could be a consideration for the Royals, as he does have pop if nothing else. They are one of a handful of teams with an open DH spot."
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i hate the concept of the run-producer
I'm Hoping He Means A
If we're going to go after
Guillen for more than
The figure on Jenkins
by CentralChamps2009 on Nov 6, 2007 6:40 AM EST reply actions
The KC Star has this . . .
http://www.kansascity.com/sports/story/348289.html
Some points:
- we are going to try and keep Riske, and find a late-inning guy to fill Greinke's role.
- GMDM is looking for a back of the rotation guy, which means the rookies (Buckner, Hoch, et al.) may not be in the starting rotation
- They are considering Torii Hunter, Sammy Sosa and Barry Bonds, as well as Guillen and Jenkins.
- GMDM sounds like he wants to keep DDJ long term, as well as Teahen. So the only two spots we are replacing are LF or DH (depending on what Butler does).
Forget Guillen
Go for Guillen
Jenkins won't go for one-year deal, and he won't go for $6-7M. The MLBtraderumors guy is usually pretty reasonable, but Jenkins has a higher value than that, particularly in this market.
No offense, man
Wasting money?
2003 .928 142
2004 .849 121
2005 .817 116
2006 .674 75
2007 .813 116
One of the key reasons that his OPS+ is so high in Seattle is that the park he played half of his games in is an extreme pitcher's park. Move him to KC and his SLG goes up considerably. A 116 OPS+ in KC translates into an OPS of about .840
The numbers say that Torii Hunter is a worse hitter overall and much, much more inconsistent. I don't mind us looking at A. Jones, but his contract would be much more risky in that it would have to be for 5-7 years.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 6, 2007 11:01 AM EST up reply actions
I would guess
My take
Granted, if he is suspended, the Royals are not out the dollars while he is unavailable, but they are STILL out the production he might provide.
Put me in the camp of "I'd rather spend 15-20 million per year for Andruw Jones than spend 10-12 million per year for Guillen"
TIRED of obtaining merely competent players; let's throw all of our eggs into one basket - a basket that might actually produce STAR numbers rather than competant numbers.
by loyal2s dad on Nov 6, 2007 1:03 PM EST reply actions
I'm with you
Since there are few impact sluggers out on the market, a potential solution would be to sign one of the upper echelon free agent starters and then trade said starter for an outfielder. For example, sign Bartolo Colon and then trade him (perhaps with DDJ or a B prospect) to Seattle for Balentien or LA for Kemp.
Sort of a risky strategy, of course, as it only works if you know those teams are in the market for a starter, and are willing to part with a young bat. Also, it may have a negative impact on future free agent negotiations, so you'd have to be rather clever with timing and such.
Why wouldn't Seattle or LA just sign Colon?
well, you'd have to outbid them
The question would be whether or not the second team would still want/need the pitcher at that point. I assume the Royals could also throw in some cash if that were an issue.
Considering how frequently pitchers suffer injuries, there's a good chance that the other team(s) would still be interested. Of course, you also have to worry about Colon or whoever getting injured during that time period. So, there's a small bit of risk involved, but it would probably be worth the gamble.
If they don't want Colon at the KC price
If teams like Seattle and LA really want Colon, they have the money to risk signing Colon -- it's exactly what Seattle did with Guillen and LA did with Nomar.
They will
Its like the Dotel situation. Didn't that work out well?
indeed
Not really
Year one turned out about as well as it possibly could, but Meche's long, backloaded contract hurts his trade value. Teams would be interested in trading for him, just not for anything to get too excited about.
Can't agree with any of that
The remainder of Meche's contract is 2008-11, 2009-11, 2010-12, 2011-12. That's 4yrs/$46M. Many teams would jump at the chance of getting a #2-3 starter at Meche's age for four years at only $11.5M per year. If the Royals traded Meche (and they shouldn't), they'd get a hell of a lot for him.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 6, 2007 4:03 PM EST up reply actions
Davies is no prize
Meche is already getting paid his full market value, especially for a guy his age and with his history of injuries and inconsistency. Nobody is going to pay much of a premium for the privilege of assuming payments on that deal.
Davies and Meche
Did you see the market last year? Do you understand that it is going to get worse this year, given the shortage of good players on the market and the record revenues across MLB? What kind of contract do you think Silva is going to get? Meche would get a much bet contract this year if he were a free agent this year. Teams would line up to assume his contract.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 6, 2007 5:34 PM EST up reply actions
You are overrating both of them
You are overestimating the market (and Gil Meche) if you think Meche would get much more than he did last year. Carlos Silva is not going to get a Barry Zito contract simply because he might be one of the better free agents available. That is not how things work.
You underrate both of them and the market
You are overestimating the market (and Gil Meche) if you think Meche would get much more than he did last year.
In addition to the 5/55 offer Meche got from KC, he got a 4/44 offer from Toronto. After those offers, he had the best year of his career. Do you think his price wouldn't go up? His track record looks better, plus we have one more year of salary inflation in a market where just about every team is flush with increased revenues. You do the math.
Carlos Silva is not going to get a Barry Zito contract simply because he might be one of the better free agents available. That is not how things work.
Silva won't get a Zito contract, but he may well get a Meche contract, despite a worse track record. The market is about supply and demand. Many (all) teams need to upgrade. They have a hell of a lot of money. That money is going to get spent. Silva is arguably the top of the FA SP class. Lots of ok/decent/pretty good pitchers got huge contracts last year. It is going to get worse this year. All of the elements of massive salary inflation are there: scarcity of quality FA's, dozens of teams with greatly increased revenues. Talk to me in two months about salary inflation and how this market panned out. You are wildly underestimating the market.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 6, 2007 7:08 PM EST up reply actions
Take off your blue KC cap for a moment
On Meche, the point is that he already has a market value contract, and another team is not going to give up a premium prospect to get him. Everyone pretty much agrees the Royals had to overpay for him last year, and while he pitched up to the contract, he did not provide a Sabathia or Santana-like performance. The premium the Royals paid offsets much of the expected inflation from his improved performance and the market conditions. So the bottom line is that even if another thinks Meche's contract is undervalued by a million or so per year, that is not enough of a difference for them to give up an elite prospect. In other words, the Yankees may want to trade for Meche, but they are not going to give up Phil Hughes (and the six more years of club control that essentially guarantees a below market salary) to get Meche.
Even more on Davies and Meche
On Meche, the point is that he already has a market value contract
Only if you think the market this offseason is going to be exactly the same as last season with no salary inflation. And if you think that his excellent 2007 season has not changed his value at all.
another team is not going to give up a premium prospect to get him.
Actually the Royals could significant good, young talent for him from a large market team for Meche. That's one of the reasons that Nate Silver of BP has said that he thinks the Royals should flip Meche as his contract now looks like a bargain (I can provide a link to that if you like).
Everyone pretty much agrees the Royals had to overpay for him last year, and while he pitched up to the contract, he did not provide a Sabathia or Santana-like performance.
The Royals added one more year onto the Toronto offer. That's the "overpay" that they had to do. They did this because they saw something special in him. He showed it in 2007. No, it was not Sabathia or Santana-like. Their value would be well over $15M per season.
The premium the Royals paid offsets much of the expected inflation from his improved performance and the market conditions. So the bottom line is that even if another thinks Meche's contract is undervalued by a million or so per year, that is not enough of a difference for them to give up an elite prospect.
What you don't understand is that over the next 4 years (the term of his contract), his contract is not undervalued by a million per year. There will be salary inflation every year. That will make his contract an increasingly better value with every passing year.
If you come to another team's site to give us a "reality check" about our players, at least come with good information on the players and the market. Your underestimation of the FA market is startling for any baseball fan.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 6, 2007 8:36 PM EST up reply actions
I don't think G knew what he was up against
by ksuroyal on Nov 6, 2007 10:11 PM EST up reply actions
What is so special
Grab any recent volume of the Baseball America prospect book, and read through the scouting reports. For each organization, you will find three or four pitching prospects with a 92-MPH fastball, change, curve/slider, and poor command. Stuff is not special if you cannot throw it over the plate.
As for Meche, Nate Silver says nothing contrary to what I have said. Other teams would be interested in Meche, but Silver says nothing to suggest that the return would be an elite prospect. And in context of the rest of the article, Silver's point is the current collection of talent is "probably going to peak at about 78 wins," so the Royals should move the older guys (Meche, Bannister, and Grudz) while they can (and save themselves the money). He is certainly aware of Meche's PECOTA forecast and the chances of a guy repeating his 90% projection. Based on his 2007 numbers, Meche should be expected to regress somewhat - his 73% LOB% is non-sustainable, his ERA (3.67) outperformed his FIP (FIP 4.14/xFIP 4.31) by half a run, and he shaved nearly a walk off his career rate (2.6 BB/9 2007 v. 3.7 BB/9 career). Other teams would be well aware of this.
Contrary to your suggestion, the free agent market for pitchers does not grow exponentially. Four years ago, Bartolo Colon got 4 years/$51 million. Three years ago, Carl Pavano got 4 years/$40 million. Two years ago, Kevin Millwood got 5/$60 million and Jarrod Washburn got 4/$38 million. $12 million per year will likely still be a lot for a pitcher over the next four years. And considering Meche is age 29, this is the end of his peak, so he should be expected to decline over the course of the contract.
You also cannot assume that teams will have the same amount of money to spend this offseason. The extra $10 million teams got to spend last offseason from the Nationals sale was a one-time payment.
Special stuff and Meche
As for Meche, Nate Silver says nothing contrary to what I have said. Other teams would be interested in Meche, but Silver says nothing to suggest that the return would be an elite prospect.
I said the Royals could get good, young talent for Meche. Silver must think that the Royals could get good return for him. Otherwise, why else would he think it would be best for the Royals to trade away their best starting pitcher? If the Royals traded Meche, I don't think it would be for a prospect. I think it would be for a couple players who are young and cheap and who have already shown major league ability.
And in context of the rest of the article, Silver's point is the current collection of talent is "probably going to peak at about 78 wins," so the Royals should move the older guys (Meche, Bannister, and Grudz) while they can (and save themselves the money).
Boy, you're working really hard to stretch now. His article about what teams should to do improve themselves. He thought the Royals could upgrade by trading Meche, not just dump salary. The Royals don't need to dump salary to decrease payroll, and Silver didn't mention money savings at any point. Clearly you are unfamiliar with the Royals payroll situation. Also, Silver wasn't talking about trading away older players. He said nothing about trading Gruzielanek and neither Meche (29) nor Bannister (26) would be considered old by anybody.
He is certainly aware of Meche's PECOTA forecast and the chances of a guy repeating his 90% projection.
As I'm sure you know, they run the PECOTA projections only once a year. So the next PECOTA projection will include his 2007 performance. I think that projection will be better. Other teams will know this. Other teams would like what they saw in 2007. They saw a healthy innings eater who pitched consistently well. That is why Silver thinks the Royals could improve by trading him.
Contrary to your suggestion, the free agent market for pitchers does not grow exponentially.
No, but it does grow every year unless their are economic forces which adversely affect the market. You are either ignorant of, or are ignoring the economic realities which will make this an extremely hot market. That is why everyone, and I mean everyone, is predicting big salary inflation this year and for the forseeable future (if you are not familiar with the impact RSN's are having on MLB team revenues, I would suggest that you look into it).
You also cannot assume that teams will have the same amount of money to spend this offseason. The extra $10 million teams got to spend last offseason from the Nationals sale was a one-time payment.
Sigh That $10M is a drop in the bucket. The significant increases in revenues throughout MLB have nothing to do with the sale of the Nationals. It has to do with attendance, ratings, merchandising and RSN's. If you don't know about these things and don't understand that virtually every team has more money to spend (and in most cases much more money to spend), then you really have no idea what is going on with this market.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 7, 2007 8:41 AM EST up reply actions
Meche
See, that was not so hard, was it?
"Also, Silver wasn't talking about trading away older players. He said nothing about trading Gruzielanek [sic] and neither Meche (29) nor Bannister (26) would be considered old by anybody."
Here is what Nate Silver actually wrote: "You trade Bannister, who isn't all that young and whose low ERA was a DIPS-induced fluke. And you see what you can get for Grudzielanek in a middle infield market that should be fairly fluid this winter."
Like Davies and his command, your reading comprehension needs some work.
"You are either ignorant of, or are ignoring the economic realities which will make this an extremely hot market."
Over the last four years, MLB has experienced unprecedented growth in revenues mainly due to national and local broadcasting rights (including new sources like satellite radio), higher attendance, and the incredible success of MLBAM. Specifically, MLB revenue has increased an astonishing 38%, from $3.7 billion in 2003 to $5.1 billion in 2006. (As a starting point, you might want to go back and read up on the annual Forbes articles on MLB revenues.)
Despite these "economic realities," free agent inflation for No. 2-type starters like Gil Meche has not kept pace. As noted above, over the last four years, the top end of the free agent market for No. 2 starters has modestly increased, from $10 million per year to $11 million now.
Every offseason in recent memory, the less informed cite the significant MLB revenues and cry wolf about free agency inflation, but the actual inflation never matches the hype.
And then it got personal
Every offseason in recent memory, the less informed cite the significant MLB revenues and cry wolf about free agency inflation, but the actual inflation never matches the hype.
Except for one brief period of salary deflation, FA signings have met or exceeded the hype. Did you actualy pay attention to last year's free agent signings? Meche, Lilly, Marquis, Zito? That market was insane. It exceeded the hype. Sit back and watch this one. For some reason you expect teams with needs and a shortage of good options to just sit on their stack of money. Good luck with that.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 7, 2007 2:52 PM EST up reply actions
Since I referenced it in my post...
You flip Meche, whose contract will now look like an asset to at least 15 or 20 teams, to the losers in the Johan Santana derby
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6817
Seems like Silver thinks that Meche's contract is very appealing to many teams. Do you think Nate Silver is a closet Royals fan who can't see through his Royal Blue tinted glasses?
by Scott McKinney on Nov 6, 2007 10:31 PM EST up reply actions
LA or Seattle
Its how we got Octavio Dotel - few were willing to take the risk we were.
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