Just Curious: How Do You See the AL Central Shaking Out?

Here ya go

2008

Cleveland
Detroit
Twins
Royals
Sox

* this is with rosters as they are now...if the Santana deal gets done, and the Royals sign a pitcher who gives them a +3-4 win season over another pitcher then I'd take Royals 3rd and Twins 4th.

2009

Cleveland
Detroit
Royals
Twins
Sox

Chance of 3rd in 2008: 33%
Chance of 1st in 2009: .05%
Chance of 1st in 2010: 25%

I'd rather be watching baseball.

by Sisquatch Kids on Dec 14, 2007 12:54 PM EST reply actions

Me

2008

Cleveland
Detroit
Kansas City (50 percent)
Minnesota
CWS

2009

Cleveland
Detroit
Kansas City (70 percent)
Minnesota
CWS

by BlueEyesAustin on Dec 14, 2007 1:23 PM EST reply actions

well I guess

2008
Detroit
Cleveland
KC
Minnesota
Chicago

and we'll go with 45%

2009
Detroit
KC
Cleveland
Minnesota
Chicago

and we'll give them a 10% chance at first

Sign Alex Gordon to a life time contract!!!

by eboston on Dec 14, 2007 1:43 PM EST reply actions

Okay

2008

Tigers
Indians
Twins
Royals
White Sox

* Rosters as is

2009

Indians
Tigers
Royals
White Sox
Twins

2008 Third Place = 20%
2009 First Place = 5%

by MileHighKCfan on Dec 14, 2007 1:57 PM EST reply actions

Yup...

2008

Indians
Tigers
Twins
Royals
White Sox

* Rosters as is

2009

Indians
Tigers
Royals
Twins
White Sox

2008 Third Place = 30%
2009 First Place = 5%

by grudz69 on Dec 14, 2007 2:11 PM EST reply actions

2008

Detroit
Cleveland
KC
Minnesota
Chicago

The Royals will finish in third or fourth, just depends on how many young players get hot and if they can do it at the same time. Not sure on 2009, it's too far away.

by lordbyronk on Dec 14, 2007 2:11 PM EST reply actions

If the Royals finish last again in '08, it will be a grave mistake that could have easily been avoided. The Twins are building for '09 and beyond, and the White Sox were worse than us in 2007 and are considerably worse right now. There's no reason we shouldn't be above .500 in 2009.

My 2008 predictions:

Tigers
Indians
Twins
Royals
White Sox

Chances at 3rd: 25%
Chances at 4th: 40%
Chances at 5th: 35%

2009:

Tigers
Twins
Royals
Indians
White Sox

Chances at 3rd: 50%
Chances at 4th: 35%
Chances at 5th: 15%

Play MLB Managers Survivor at Royals Nation! http://royalsnation.proboards62.com/

by Royals Nation on Dec 14, 2007 2:24 PM EST reply actions

so not much hope til 2010...

by Freneau on Dec 14, 2007 2:48 PM EST reply actions

my picks

2008 (w/ current rosters)

Tigers-central version of yankees
Indians-great offense average pitching
Royals-all around average, solid pitching
White Sox-weird and sloppy
Twins-young w/ no depth after santana/nathan, likely to trade santana anyway (mauer and morneau not enough w/ no pitching depth)

2009

Tigers-ditto
Royals-improvement+one or two good signings
White Sox-improved+trades
Indians-losing some hitters
Twins-lost santana, developmental year

yeah, i admit it's optimistic as a royals fan, but i still am not a believer in the indians. i just don't think they have the pitching(rotation and bullpen) to keep up the pace they had this past season. the tigers are going to be explosive for the next two years w/ a very good rotation. the twins seem to be falling off in a couple areas. the white sox spend a lot of money, but are a confusing mix of old injury-prone stars and young unpredictable prospects. their bullpen is atrocious.

Never giving up on your team is what makes you a good fan.

by kcisbetterthanstlateverything on Dec 14, 2007 3:02 PM EST reply actions

I'll play

2008

Tigers
Indians
Royals/Twins (50% chance of first place)
White Sox

*2009
Indians
Tigers
Royals (15% chance of first place)
Twins
White Sox

Of course all of this is guess work but 2009 predictions are the most wild speculation. We don't know what any of these teams will look like. Of course we have some idea, but there will of course be many changes between now and then. The Royals of 2009 should be much better than the current team. Young players will be more experienced and their performances should be better. There is a lot of money and opportunity to improve the team over the next 15 months.

The Royals should be a competitive team in 2008. They should be competing at a high level in 2009 some some shot at first place, but with odds stacked against them based on how good the top two teams in the divison should be.

We're improving every year. We should see significant improvement in the future. I don't think we should feel dejected because the Royals won't likely be in first place in 2009. Marked improvement each year is how rebuilding should work. If that means we don't win the division until 2010 because there are two great teams in the division, then so be it.

(by the way, one need not win the division in order to get into the playoffs)

I probably disagree with you.

by Scott McKinney on Dec 14, 2007 3:09 PM EST reply actions

Hopefully first place by 2010

2008

Indians (i'll still take their pitching over DET)
Tigers (wild card)
Royals (60% chance at third place)
Twins (Young. Santana uncertainty.)
White Sox (Falling to pieces with no farm help)

2009

Tigers
Royals (10% chance of first place)
Twins
White Sox
Indians (they will go into rebuilding mode after the '09 season)

"I'm tired of all these stupid a$$ questions every day. Why the f**k would I hit Brett for Miller?" The rest is history.

by DC Royal on Dec 14, 2007 3:22 PM EST reply actions

By 2009, I could be predicting the

fortunes of a very different team in a very different division so I'll just do '08:

Indians
Tigers
Royals - 75% chance of finishing here
Twins
White Sox

It's fine to disagree with anything I type, but I'm currently running on energy drinks. Be warned.

by NHZ on Dec 14, 2007 3:59 PM EST reply actions

The truth. Mark it!

2008:
Tigers
Cleveland
Royals 82-80 Odds of finishing 3rd or better, 1-1
Twins
White Sox

2009:
Royals 92-70 Odds of winning AL Central. 100%
Cleveland
Twins
Tigers
White Sox fold as a franchise

2010
Royals 160-2
Twins
Cleveland
Tigers

And it only gets better each year after 2010. By 2012 the Yankees will call in sick on those days when the Royals are in town.

Rock Chalk Talk for pretty good KU College Baseball Coverage

by James Quinn on Dec 14, 2007 4:58 PM EST reply actions

Woo yea!

Thanks for the laugh!

by doublestix on Dec 14, 2007 6:23 PM EST up reply actions

Keeping with JQ's unbridled optimism

2008:

Tigers (gotta follow the crowd)
Royals (almost the 2007 Rockies)
Indians (horrible first half--big step back for Carmona, Byrd and Westbrook fall apart, young guys like Gutierrez and Cabrera don't pan out, so C.C. and/or Borowski get dealt before the deadline).
White Sox (bad, but not as bad as everyone expects)
Twins (a restocking year)

2009:
Royals (hey, it is my screen name)
Tigers
Twins
Indians
White Sox

by CentralChamps2009 on Dec 14, 2007 5:32 PM EST reply actions

More realistically

Chance of 2008 third place: 40% if the Twins have Johan, 60% if not

Chance of 2009 first place: 20%

by CentralChamps2009 on Dec 14, 2007 5:35 PM EST up reply actions

Wow: serious optimism here

All I have to say is: how many seasons have we finished above 500 in the past 20 years? How many times have we made the playoffs in the past 22? And people are predicting 82-80 and third place soon, followed by improvement? Wow.

My predictions:

2008
4th place: 40%
5th place: 60%

2009
3rd place: 20%
4th place: 40%
5th place: 40%

I agree that there are differences now--for the first time in quite a while, the phrase "we have money to spend" has been said, and we've made an unusually big signing, and we have two genuine prospects making a difference.

My fears: Bannister is average or worse in 2008, Meche has a 4.5 year, DJ and Teabag stay about where they were in 07, Gordon makes only slight improvement (look at his WPA on fangraphs, for goodness's sake), and Butler falls back from his phenomenal hitting.

I'm actually optimistic about Guillen. I'm pessimistic about everything coming together, including whether we have any near-term real prospects past Gordon and Butler.

Sorry! I've been a Royals fan for too long to really believe we'll be 4th then 3rd, or anything else. A linear prediction is: 5th for the rest of our lives.

The REALLY important news is the reintroduction of powder blue. Now that is seriously awesome, and reminds me of my childhood when I cut out every article of the KC Star during the 85 postseason.

by Sean O Se on Dec 14, 2007 8:22 PM EST reply actions

I think

Most of us are assuming the White Sox and Twin fall to pieces next year.

by BlueEyesAustin on Dec 14, 2007 9:08 PM EST up reply actions

I'm looking at this team as it is...

...and the direction that Dayton Moore is taking it. The Royals history of failure has no bearing on the present day, except that it makes some fans pessimistic beyond reason. Failures of the Royals team in the 90's does not effect the success of the Royals in the mid 2000's. 0% chance of better than 4th place in 2008? Give me a break.

I probably disagree with you.

by Scott McKinney on Dec 14, 2007 9:22 PM EST up reply actions

Hold on

Isn't past behavior the best indicator of future behavior?

I'd rather be watching baseball.

by Sisquatch Kids on Dec 14, 2007 10:56 PM EST up reply actions

Past behavior

Past behavior of the players on this team and the members of the front office is an indicator of their future behavior. How many current players and front office members were around for the Royals long tradition of failure?

As I said, the failures of the 80's, 90's and early 00's have no bearing on what the Royals will do in 2008 and beyond.

I probably disagree with you.

by Scott McKinney on Dec 14, 2007 11:46 PM EST up reply actions

Actually

I've been tracking this. With his latest acquisition, DM now picked 19 of the 39 players currently on the 40 man. Baird picked 18 and Robinson 2.

by BlueEyesAustin on Dec 15, 2007 1:03 AM EST up reply actions

Good work

How many of the pitchers on the roster has Moore acquired?

Yoda

by Yoda @ Royals Review on Dec 15, 2007 8:45 AM EST up reply actions

Pitchers

Baird
Greinke
Braun
Hudson
Musser
Rosa
Nunez
Peralta

Moore
Hochevar
Bale
Duckworth
Meche
Yabuta
Soria
Davies
Lumsden
Pimentel
De La Rosa
Bannister

Robinson
Gobble

We know that DM has already tried to trade Nunez. Gobble's name has definitely floated around as well.

by BlueEyesAustin on Dec 15, 2007 11:11 AM EST up reply actions

Hochevar

Doesn't really count as a Moore accusation cause it was during the two weeks before he could take over the team, but I'm sure he had his finger in there somewhat

I may be drunk, but tomorrow I will be sober and you, ma'am, will still be ugly. - Winston Churchill

by fats on Dec 15, 2007 1:14 PM EST up reply actions

08

2008
Tigers
Twins
Royals
Indians
White Sox

Crazy year is my prediction. Tigers offense caries them. Twins make one last run with Santana, and the back end of the Indians falls apart.If the rosters change my prediction will as well.

by Skirra on Dec 14, 2007 8:40 PM EST reply actions

* back end of the indians ROTATION falls apart

by Skirra on Dec 14, 2007 8:40 PM EST up reply actions

Everything is going in the right direction, but...

My question is how much better or worse we will be in 2008 compared to 2003 when we finished 3rd. I know the other teams have changed since then as well; but with the exception of the White Sox (and perhaps the Twins if they make a very bad trade for Santana and other wheels fall off, both of which I think very unlikely) I think the other teams have uniformly improved.

And it seems to me very implausible that 2008 will be anywhere near as good as 2003. We had Beltran with an OPS+ of 132; DDJ with an OPS of over 1000; career years from Berroa and Guiel (who was one of my favorite players at the time); and solid contributions from Ibanez, Sweeney, and Randa. Our pitching was also fairly good, although every major contributor, like May, R-Elvis, Lima-time, Mac the 9th, my favorite import Brian Anderson, Affeldt, etc collapsed the next season. Finally, after the incredible 9-0 start, we played under-500 ball, and even that beat our Pythag.

So I just ask: with a team that is in most ways inferior to 2003, when we were lucky to come in 3rd, who are we going to beat besides the Sox? I actually think the fact that this idea of finishing non-last is plausible is a huge step. I didn't believe it this year when we were ahead of Chicago. Next year, with Guillen, improvements from rookies, slight rebounds for DDJ and Teabag, and the pitching only moderately declining, I think it's plausible we'll be a better team than the W-Sox. And I do take NYRoyal's point: there is a non-zero chance of finishing 3rd or better. I just don't think it's a narrative I can believe in for next year. I think with continued improvement--as in a couple of years of signings and player development like last season--I can think of the Royals as pulling up to the rest of our division.

I look forward to it.

by Sean O Se on Dec 15, 2007 2:53 AM EST reply actions

2003 was a fluke

There is no reason to compare any Royals team to 2003. 2003 was a fluke year when multiple players played way over their head. Need I remind you of the great seasons had by:

Angel Berroa
Aaron Guiel
Darrell May
Runelvys Hernandez
Brian Anderson
Curtis Leskanic
Jose Lima

The talent on this team is superior to the overall talent of the 2003 team...by a lot. The 2008 team, as currently comprised is around a .500 team. Is that enough to beat the White Sox? Yes. Is that enough to beat the Twins? Maybe. The Twins without Santana? Yes.

I probably disagree with you.

by Scott McKinney on Dec 15, 2007 12:01 PM EST up reply actions

hmm

2008

Tigers
Indians
Royals
Twins
Sox

2009

Indians
Royals?
Twins
Tigers
Sox

50% 3rd
20% 1st

This is a tough division to call. With the Callaspo trade, I like the Royals to improve to third place, provided he plays shortstop. 2009 is a big mystery to me -- it depends on the fate of guys like Santana and Willis.

by marbotty on Dec 15, 2007 3:26 AM EST reply actions