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Its Like Nashville, With a Tan

12/6/07 - Signed OF Jose Guillen to a three-year contract; Selected LHP Ray Liotta from the White Sox in the Rule 5 Draft.

12/4/07 -Released RHP Colby Lewis.

++++++++

So, after everything, thats what we're left with for now: Ray Liotta and the culmination of a deal that had seemingly been in the making for months, if not years. The Winter Meetings made life briefly better than it had been, but still failed to live up to expectations. So in other words, they were like everything else.

To comment on Guillen almost seems passe at this point, as we've now been debating his merits with some intensity for a month, and there's nothing much to say at this point. I think overall, perhaps because of his personality, perhaps because of his world-wide travels, he's a generally underrated hitter, at least at some ill-defined level of the public mind. Since his age 27 breakout with the Reds, he's posted OPS+s of 142, 121, 116, 75 and 116. Basically, he's an evil Reggie Sanders, circa 2003, that is to say, before Reggie Sanders went from "damn, this guy's numbers are actually impressive even though I have no memory of ever seeing him play" to "Reggie Sanders will give you solid production in the outfield". Maybe all he needs is a chance to settle down, to bathe in the healing waters of the state of Missouri and build up some familiarity with the chattering classes. By the time Sanders was done in St. Louis he was almost a borderline HOF candidate, or so it seemed, although the Royals don't tend to produce rampant over-glorification the way the Redbird Nationities do.

As for the terms of the deal, its a perfect Jose Guillen contract; only vaguely interesting. The money is high at a superficial level, but when you adjust for the baseball world as its now constituted, its actually reasonable. And three years isn't the end of the world. Yea, it'd be better if it was shorter, but would you rather he have gotten five? Sure, we're buying a portion of his decline, but thats what all the cool kids do now, and his is probably preferable to Emil Brown's.

As with every move the Royals make, the only real matter of concern is this: will this deal prevent other, better deals from getting made? And really, we have no way of knowing that. Positionally, the answer seems no -- although I would have been fine with giving Huber/Costa/Someone Else a shot for a season, then signing a COF in next year's superior class -- which brings us back to the eternal question around these parts regarding ownership and money. My cynical side would say that we've merely gone from being misers to be being hyper, over-aggressive consumers in an incredibly circumscribed way that tries to scream "I'm alive" but instead only mutters "I'm a sad person." The Royals are a sixty year old retiree who hoarded everything she made for a lifetime who is now at Vegas, gambling $100s and calling back home every hour to talk about it.

Now, if the Royals are players next year, and if the Royals continue to invest in player development, draftee bonuses and all the rest, then we all sit back and say, "no big deal". Problem is, we're all so beaten down and half-expect a Dutton story in the Star next August headlined "Disappointed Glass May Put Hold on Spending".

So in sum, the Guillen signing is nice, but doesn't exactly change anything. Will the Meche Era end in glory? That remains to be seen.

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Good write up
on Guillen. I am pretty optimistic about this move and can't wait to say 'I told you so' when he mashes the ball this year. Don't make me eat my words Jose, cause I know people.

by MileHighKCfan on Dec 7, 2007 12:22 PM EST reply actions  

Well said...and we can trade him
Let's say he has two pretty good years for KC (which is likely, given his age).  Then, going into the third year, he'll be owed $12M.  With salary inflation, that will be much more affordable then.  So, we can trade him, maybe a eat a little of the contract and get back some kind of prospect for him.  I'm not saying this will happen, but it is definitely a reasonable option.
I probably disagree with you.

by Scott McKinney on Dec 7, 2007 12:26 PM EST reply actions  

Right
Its not a bad way to accumulate talent - sign free agents, and flip em for prospects.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Dec 7, 2007 12:33 PM EST up reply actions  

yea...
but people don't trade prospects anymore

EVER

by Freneau on Dec 7, 2007 12:34 PM EST up reply actions  

Mostly a salary dump
My trade scenario above isn't about picking up a good prospect.  It is a way to get rid of Guillen before we see too much of his decline.  Probably/hopefully we'll have more talent in the organization by then, including some young player who can take his place.  Then we can move Guillen for some prospect (probably a B prospect) and maybe kick in a little money.  That way we save about $10M which we can spend elsewhere on a better, younger FA.

Top prospects are held pretty tightly nowadays.  But certainly not all prospects.

I probably disagree with you.

by Scott McKinney on Dec 7, 2007 12:38 PM EST up reply actions  

Prospect Trades
Tigers just traded some serious prospects. Not for a 32 year old, but it happens.  Boston and the Yankees were willing to get rid of some for Santana. Mets traded Lastings Milledge, Giants are contemplating Cain or Lincecum  for Rios.

It happens. Not much of a point to thss as it will not happen with Guillen though.

Did anybody see that Chris Shelton went to the Rangers as a player to be named later? Is that somebody we should have been looking at? At least if we signed him and never let him play, he would not ever hit 4 homeruns against us in one series...

by eakers on Dec 7, 2007 4:35 PM EST up reply actions  

i thougt he was worth a shot
i bet he out hits shealy
Hillman, you're on notice.

by FireBell on Dec 7, 2007 4:54 PM EST up reply actions  

Shealy will outhit Brown
No matter where Brown ends up playing, I predict Shealy's averages will be better.  That is, as long as Brown isn't playing in Japan or somewhere in Latin America.  He could be an above average player in either place.
I probably disagree with you.

by Scott McKinney on Dec 7, 2007 7:12 PM EST up reply actions  

Seconded
If somehow he would have agreed to the 5 year/ $70 million offer GMDM put on the table, my innocence and any optimism I had left would torturously die inside me.  

I'm so glad that Torii is not a Royal, so I can still hold out hope for beacons of light reaching me on the east coast from the K.

"I'm tired of all these stupid a$$ questions every day. Why the f**k would I hit Brett for Miller?" The rest is history.

by DC Royal on Dec 7, 2007 12:38 PM EST up reply actions  

Liotta
Sickels rated Liotta as the 15th best prospect in the White Sox system

http://www.minorleagueball.com/story/2006/12/23/061/36883

by Freneau on Dec 7, 2007 12:41 PM EST reply actions  

As of Dec. 2006
And then he sat out all of the 2007 season with a shoulder injury.  Stilll, he's a good minor league Rule 5 acquisition.  Has had some minor league success.  Once a top prospect.  If he comes back 100% of the injury, he still has upside.
I probably disagree with you.

by Scott McKinney on Dec 7, 2007 12:50 PM EST up reply actions  

The few pieces I've read
Lauded the Royals for taking Liotta. The minor league portion of the Rule 5 Draft is usually filled with crap and organizational filler, but Liotta actually has some upside.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Dec 7, 2007 2:05 PM EST up reply actions  

Coincidence? or Fate?
Ray Liotta's new film called "Powder Blue"

http://www.cinematical.com/2007/07/19/ray-liotta-is-jessica-biels-dad-in-powder-blue/

 

NYRoyal potentially was possibly maybe more correct than I might or might not have been!

by marbotty on Dec 8, 2007 3:23 AM EST up reply actions  

does this mean
I get to look forward to pictures of Jessica Biel every time Liotta's name is mentioned this season?

by Moose Tacos on Dec 8, 2007 3:59 AM EST up reply actions  

fwiw
I was hoping for Liotta in the MacDougal trade, over Lumsden.  Now both look a little crusty.
NYRoyal potentially was possibly maybe more correct than I might or might not have been!

by marbotty on Dec 8, 2007 3:31 AM EST up reply actions  

wooo
Cortes will make both irrelevant! :-)

by doublestix on Dec 8, 2007 1:59 PM EST up reply actions  

Question about Rule 5
Do we have to keep Liotta on the ML roster this year or send him back?  I thought that was how Rule 5 worked, but then I thought I heard he was taken in the minor league portion of the Rule 5.

I'm confused.  Can somebody explain?

I don't fight extra players.

by paleblueeyes on Dec 7, 2007 2:17 PM EST up reply actions  

minor league portion
Same deal, except he has to remain in AAA for the whole season. At least, I think that's how it works.

by Moose Tacos on Dec 7, 2007 2:24 PM EST up reply actions  

I thought that too
But someone at Baseball Think Factory told me there are pretty much no such rules on the minor league portion, which seems odd to me, but whatever.
 
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Dec 7, 2007 2:26 PM EST up reply actions  

Not all that odd
There would seemingly be a big difference between a guy who hasn't made the AAA to MLB jump in a system and a guy not even given a chance at AAA.  If a guy has been in a system for so long and hasn't spent time above AA, it's clear that he's never gonna be considered a player in that system, and just the change of atmosphere and chance for the player is a good enough justification for the draft without protecting the other teams' rights.

On that issue, I haven't seen if anyone commented on losing Gabe DeHoyos in the AAA portion?. In 2006, he closed a lot for Wichita and it seemed he was at least a good prospect for a regular spot in Omaha.  I guess his 2007 was pretty unremarkable.

by CentralChamps2009 on Dec 7, 2007 11:35 PM EST up reply actions  

actually
We can place him anywhere in the minor league system. The minor league portion of the Rule 5 is basically just buying players from other teams.

by doublestix on Dec 8, 2007 2:00 PM EST up reply actions  

Does the Guillen deal prevent other deals?
There is no reason to believe it does.  There is every reason to believe it doesn't.  The Royals have at least $10M more to spend, almost certainly $15M and probably more like $20M. And that's just this year.  Ten months from now the Royals will have another seasons worth of revenues including more revenue sharing from MLB and some huge luxury tax money coming from the Yanks and Red Sox (thank you A-Rod and Lowell).  So there is every reason to believe the payroll will go up even more next year.  The Guillen signing is just one move among many in the Royals rebuilding effort.  Guillen is one, Meche was another and there will be more big moves.  There may not be more big moves this year (maybe yes, maybe no), but there will definitely be some next year.  Next year's free agent class is big and talented.  There will not be the scarcity that there is this year.  There will be many options for the Royals to use to significantly increase talent.
I probably disagree with you.

by Scott McKinney on Dec 7, 2007 12:48 PM EST reply actions  

Agreed
Lets hope they don't spend it like a hobo who found $20.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Dec 7, 2007 2:06 PM EST up reply actions  

Oh....
The pictures that conjured in my head.
David Howard was just the beginning. Hopefully TPJ is the end.

by RoyalsFanInMarinerTown on Dec 7, 2007 4:29 PM EST up reply actions  

Does Guillen Help or Prevent Future Deals?
Interesting question.  Doesn't this question primarily hinge on two factors?
  1. The players actual and perceived value (by other GMs) relative to his contract.
  2. How much of your payroll a player takes up.
Seems like GMDM does a good job of factoring in the escalation of salaries and future FA crops.  The Meche signing demonstrates this. It would have demonstrated it even if Meche's season was somewhat less successful.  While I credit GMDM, I must acknowledge that a Hunter signing at 5/70 wouldn't have seemed so wise given next year's FA crop.
I don't fight extra players.

by paleblueeyes on Dec 7, 2007 2:26 PM EST up reply actions  

However...
We don't have a Sweeney or an Emil coming off the books next year.  And the arbitration guys will be getting more.  We may also be locking up several guys long-term next year.  

by BrRoyal on Dec 8, 2007 11:08 AM EST up reply actions  

Berroa's $5.25M will come off the books
That should cover at least all of the arbitration raises and then some.
I probably disagree with you.

by Scott McKinney on Dec 8, 2007 11:23 AM EST up reply actions  

Anyone heard
any more on Rowand?
Sign Alex Gordon to a life time contract!!!

by eboston on Dec 7, 2007 1:27 PM EST reply actions  

White Sox are going after him
"I'm tired of all these stupid a$$ questions every day. Why the f**k would I hit Brett for Miller?" The rest is history.

by DC Royal on Dec 7, 2007 1:50 PM EST up reply actions  

Rowand Is On The
Verge of Erstad-like scrappiness.
Being a fan is irrational, but what is the alternative?

by philofthenorth on Dec 7, 2007 1:54 PM EST up reply actions  

Paulie Phillips DFAed
To make room for Jose Guillen. He should clear waivers and accept assignment to duke it out with Matt Tupman in a battle royale to the death for the right to hold John Buck's jock all year.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Dec 7, 2007 4:24 PM EST reply actions  

Miguel Olivo
I wouldn't mind the Royals picking up Miguel Olivo to backup Buck.  Olivo can't hit any better than Philips or Tupman (or at least not much better) but he is a very good defensive catcher.
I probably disagree with you.

by Scott McKinney on Dec 7, 2007 4:30 PM EST up reply actions  

Will he hit better than...
.148/.240/.272?
David Howard was just the beginning. Hopefully TPJ is the end.

by RoyalsFanInMarinerTown on Dec 7, 2007 4:31 PM EST up reply actions  

Ha!
But you forget the grit LaRue gave us. That, to quote Michael Scott, is "incalculable."
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Dec 7, 2007 4:32 PM EST up reply actions  

Alex Gordon was also given jersey #4
I guess this means that Berroa is officially done with the Royals.  
"I'm tired of all these stupid a$$ questions every day. Why the f**k would I hit Brett for Miller?" The rest is history.

by DC Royal on Dec 7, 2007 4:32 PM EST up reply actions  

I was actually hoping
Berroa would get another shot this year.

Just kidding.

David Howard was just the beginning. Hopefully TPJ is the end.

by RoyalsFanInMarinerTown on Dec 7, 2007 4:42 PM EST up reply actions  

another year of TPJ
and i might want berroa back
Hillman, you're on notice.

by FireBell on Dec 7, 2007 4:58 PM EST up reply actions  

+1
If GMDM is about improving the Royals, then picking up Miguel Olivo to pair with John Buck is a good move.  He is better than Tupman/Phillips although either one of them would do ok as a 2 game a week guy.  

by daveyork on Dec 7, 2007 7:49 PM EST up reply actions  

Ha!
You did it again. Mental images...
David Howard was just the beginning. Hopefully TPJ is the end.

by RoyalsFanInMarinerTown on Dec 7, 2007 4:30 PM EST up reply actions  

Fukudome news
Kosuke Fukudome Coming To MLB
In case there was any question, Ken Rosenthal reports that Kosuke Fukudome will announce that he's leaving Japan for an MLB team.

Rosenthal says it's down to the Cubs, Padres, and what I like to call a Mystery Team.  The Rangers, Giants, and White Sox are candidates.  And although Rosenthal doesn't mention them, the Royals could be in the mix.  Ken Davidoff reported on Wednesday that Fukudome had narrowed his choices to the Cubs and Royals (though it's known that the Padres made a substantial offer).

And then from today's BP chat with Sheehan:

Travis (San Diego): Fukudome - Pads, Cubs, or Other?

Joe Sheehan: Other. I think this one is going to come out of the blue.

Blue?  Get it?  Royal blue!  Ok, I'm guessing not.

I probably disagree with you.

by Scott McKinney on Dec 7, 2007 5:08 PM EST reply actions  

I'd rather risk it....
...and beat everyone's offer than sit on our hands again.

At this rate, our payroll next year will be -$10MM from 2007.  Unacceptable.

We need more offense.

Play MLB Managers Survivor at Royals Nation! http://royalsnation.proboards62.com/

by Royals Nation on Dec 7, 2007 6:24 PM EST up reply actions  

Risk and payroll
Sheehan at BP said today that he predicts a 4/52 contract for Fukudome.  That's huge risk.  That's a lot of risk for a guy who could easily hit worse than Guillen and is already older than Guillen.

Also, I don't think we should spend just to get the payroll number up to last year's.  What we don't spend can be invested elsewhere, and it leaves lots of room to sign FA's next year when there will be a better, deeper FA class.

Also, I think you can expect the Royals to sign a SP.  If not Kuroda or Silva, then a one-year stopgap like Lieber, Jennings, Clement or Colon.

I probably disagree with you.

by Scott McKinney on Dec 7, 2007 6:29 PM EST up reply actions  

My bad
I got Fukudome and Kuroda mixed up.
I probably disagree with you.

by Scott McKinney on Dec 7, 2007 6:50 PM EST up reply actions  

SLG
If Fukudome's SLG drops by the same percentage (or a little less) than Hideki Matsui, Kaz Matsui, Kenji Johjima and Akinori Iwamura, then his SLG next year will be around. 437.  I'd really like my corner OFer to have a higher slugging percentage than that.
I probably disagree with you.

by Scott McKinney on Dec 7, 2007 6:59 PM EST up reply actions  

I thought I should agree with you sometime
Actually, I usually agree with you, but I only post argue most of the time.  I think it would be cool to have Fukudome, but I don't know that it would be smart at that price.  And I don't see any reason to spend money just to match a level of payroll, either.  

by BrRoyal on Dec 8, 2007 11:13 AM EST up reply actions  

not really
if we're really looking to dish out big bucks, we wait until next offseason and throw big money at Teixeira. and Orlando Hudson.

by doublestix on Dec 8, 2007 2:05 PM EST up reply actions  

Look at Guillen from a different perspective
With Guillen in the lineup, the pressure to produce will be on him (after the first 15 days anyway), from what I have heard. So, with the pressure falling to a veteran this year, could this possibly help in the development of Teahen, Butler, and Gordon? They will not have all the pressure that they had to produce like last year and they will see how Guillen approaches the different pitchers. How many veteran sluggers did we have last year? We had Sweeney, who did not play very long. Guillen is usually pretty durable, so I think just having him in the lineup consistently will make all three of our young hitters better.

If Guillen hit .280, 20 HRs, and leads the team in RBIs (hopefully at least in the 80s range (PLEASE not in the 60s)), I think he might be worth every dollar in development of the young'ins.

by eakers on Dec 7, 2007 8:30 PM EST reply actions  

just hard to say...
re: pressure. I mean, I tend not to worry too much about this stuff because there's just no way of knowing what the cause/effect is.

I do think there's something to be said from watching a great hitter's approach and prep, but it just depends on the guy. I really know nothing about Guillen at that level, but we'll see...

by Freneau on Dec 7, 2007 11:06 PM EST up reply actions  

If No More
Position players change, this lineup:
DDJ CF
Gritz 2B
Gordon 3B
Guillen LF
Butler DH
Teahen RF
Buck C
Shealy/Gload 1B
Pena SS

With this lineup and good pitching from the farm system kids we could be respectable next year.

Being a fan is irrational, but what is the alternative?

by philofthenorth on Dec 8, 2007 1:04 AM EST reply actions  

i hope i;m alive to see teahen's inevitable
shift to catcher

just give it time, we'll do it eventually

by Freneau on Dec 8, 2007 2:10 AM EST up reply actions  

now that
certainly wouldn't be fair to Dougie.

by Moose Tacos on Dec 8, 2007 2:22 AM EST up reply actions  

this
...we've merely gone from being misers to be being hyper, over-aggressive consumers in an incredibly circumscribed way that tries to scream "I'm alive" but instead only mutters "I'm a sad person." The Royals are a sixty year old retiree who hoarded everything she made for a lifetime who is now at Vegas, gambling $100s and calling back home every hour to talk about it

may have been the greatest thing I've ever read on this site, if not the entire internet.  Awesome analogy.

NYRoyal potentially was possibly maybe more correct than I might or might not have been!

by marbotty on Dec 8, 2007 3:25 AM EST reply actions  

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