The Great Debate

by Stook on Mar 23, 2007 12:30 PM EDT Comment 50 comments

Great post by Stook, today's game thread will be over in the diaries.-RR

Joakim Soria. I think we can all agree on two things: 1. What a cool baseball name. 2. He will be on the 25 man roster when camp breaks. What we can't seem to agree on is his role, #5 starter or relief pitcher. One side of the argument says that he's better than at least 3 or 4 of our other starting pitchers. The other side is that he's a young kid that hasn't done anything so why rush him.

I decided to look at the numbers. Below are 5 (4 Royals top 30 BA prospects)pitchers numbers from 2006 (not including winter ball cause I could not find it).

W-L ERA G GS SV IP H BB SO
1 12-4 4.23 29 29 0 166 170 86 148
2 1-0 3.48 46 0 15 49 42 13 41
3 1-9 2.81 52 0 13 77 66 32 86
4 12-5 3.95 40 7 10 98 93 22 117
5 12-6 2.16 26 26 0 146 92 34 168

Somebody mentioned that Soria dominated last year (maybe he did winter ball...again I don't know), but only one guy above I would say DOMINATED last year. That's #5. #5 is unfortunatley the lone non-Royal above, Philip Hughes in the Yankee organization. #1 is Billy Buckner. I included him only to show how far he has to go to make it. 2-4 are basically interchangable. All had good, but not great years. All have pros and cons, but I'd say from best to worst would be 4 (Jarod Plummer),3 (Ryan Braun),and 2 (Joakim Soria).

I will admit that it is hard to compare numbers alone. All pitched in different leagues and at different levels. Plummer spent about his 4th year of his career in A ball, so it could be argued that he should have dominated. Braun is considerably older. Soria was in the Mexican League which even if I concede that it is AA level, it's still two levels away from the Bigs and he didn't exactly domintate it.

I will say that Soria and Plummer have comparable career numbers

W-L ERA G GS SV IP H BB SO
Plummer 26-17 3.69 102 35 12 325 293 73 330
Soria 9-2 3.44 93 13 16 170 164 56 173

Note..both are the same age. Prior to winter ball, Soria has only started 13 games in his career. 13 games. Over his career, Soria's control has been good, but not as good as Plummer's. Plummer just doesn't get the press.

Honestly I could make the case the Braun and Plummer should be on the team before Soria. But that's only if you use the numbers. I have admitted that Soria sure has looked good. He LOOKS like he could be a successful pitcher in the Bigs. The thing is..that's the fan/scout in me. The numbers just don't back that up. The most innings Soria has thrown is a year is 66 and some of you want to throw him out there for 170-180 innings? There are no indications that he can even be successful as a starting pitcher. There's only our hopes and dreams.

So..I STILL contend that we don't know what we have. We've seen the guy pitch about 14 innings in Spring Training. He's still hanging curves that once the word gets out will be hit a LONG, LONG WAY. He has been injured and hasn't exactly thrown starters innings at any point in his career. We can afford to put him in the pen and see what he can do from there. If he succeds then we'll see.

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Well said

"I STILL contend that we don't know what we have"

Great point. ST stats may not be entirely meaningless, but it is always difficult to figure out quite what they mean. We're talking about a small sample size against a variety of competition (from major league to low-A).

He's a kid with little experience. He has extremely little experience against American minor league competition. He has no major league experience. He's pitched basically at the AA level.

And yet from little evidence, some fans want to push him into rotation. Based on what? 14 ST innings? That's hardly enough evidence. And the scouting reports have been good, but not dazzling. I haven't exactly heard about tremendous stuff or pinpoint control.

He's a good, very young and inexperienced pitcher who I am glad to have as a Rule 5 kid for the bullpen. I would start him out in low leverage innings and see how he responds to major league competition in real games. If he does well, then he can get some more important innings. In the second half of the season if he's pitched well and there is a need, then I wouldn't be averse to giving him a spot start or two.

by NYRoyal on Mar 22, 2007 9:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

how in th ehell

can i name two people named Joakim?

what a weird planet

by LeoBloom on Mar 22, 2007 10:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Agreed.

I think you made some good additional points. I think the number of innings he's thrown concerns me the most (now), at least from Soria as starting pitcher stand point.

by Stook on Mar 22, 2007 10:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The K-BB

really says alot to me. Plummer LOOKS ALOT BETTER.

by LeoBloom on Mar 22, 2007 10:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Soria

Much more upside with Soria. If I'm not mistaken, Plummer's upside is like a David Riske type. Soria (based on his command and quality of pitches) has the upside (IMO) to be a middle of the rotation workhorse, or better maybe.

by doublestix on Mar 23, 2007 12:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sort of agree

Just based on watching Soria pitch, I would agree with you. Upside is one thing..just plain getting it done is another. Both have had similar results..which I find interesting.

by Stook on Mar 23, 2007 3:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'll go down in flames supporting Soria

If he bombs out, please remember, it was me that defended him this whole time. You can drill me and ridicule me to no end if you wish. But, if I'm right and he blows your mind this year, you have to remember that I was one of his (official count I believe is two) supporters. This kid has something very special. He is better than De La Rosa, Bannister, and Perez right now. Maybe he's been lucky, but I'm going to stick my neck out for this kid. I would like to hear what NHZ has to say on this topic. He has been keeping quiet on this one.

royaldaddy-Bob Hamelin's #1 fan

by royaldaddy on Mar 23, 2007 12:15 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I think there's more than two

I also like Soria. I am certain that he would outpitch DLR if given the opportunity to start.

I only question whether we should let him start. Again, I'll defer to the Johan Santana development track, which suggests we should not let him start until the end of the year, at the earliest, and only then just a couple of starts.

Since we have both Greinke and Bannister available as starters, I suggest we give them the chance now. Soria, if he does as well as we hope, should gradually transition into the starter's role.

by marbotty on Mar 23, 2007 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

What do you base this on?

"He is better than De La Rosa, Bannister, and Perez right now."

Really, no joke here. What do you base this on? You may well know more about this guy than I do. What I know about him is the scouting report-type stuff I've read in the media, including some reports from ST and then 14 innings of stats. Do you have more than that?

If not, how is it that you are of the opinion that he is better than DLR, Bannister and Perez right now? He wasn't exactly a well known prospect to begin with, so where you you get your information from. To be honest, this sounds more like faith than knowledge. You WANT him to be great. I do too. But I prefer a realistic and effective career path to get him to that greatness.

by NYRoyal on Mar 23, 2007 12:34 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

i use the old school method

of watching pitchers. Stats are always useful, but not the only judge of talent. Just humor me and watch the kid pitch. Then, you can clearly see that he has better command of his pitches and much better "stuff" than all 3 of those guys. I don't really give a shit what he did in the Padres minor league system last year. I never saw one of those games and highly doubt any of us caught one. I've watched him pitch. He's throwing pitches that are absolutely breaking off legit major leaguers. That's something the other rotation candidates just can't seem to do (except Greinke of course). Also, I was wrong on my count of Soria supporters. There are actually 4 of us.

royaldaddy-Bob Hamelin's #1 fan

by royaldaddy on Mar 23, 2007 1:39 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

How much did you see of him?

How many innings have you seen him pitch? To draw the conclusions you have jumped to, I would think you'd have to see a lot of him. Unless you've spent a lot of time in Mexico, I doubt you've seen much of him. From what little you've seen, can you say that he's consistent? Does he repeat his delivery from pitch to pitch and from outing to outing? Does he have that good stuff in every outing? How many outings did you see?

I just see a lot of wild conclusions about this kid that you haven't seen much of, saying that he's the next great thing even though he is an inexperienced 22 year old kid. In reality, we still don't know what we have in this guy.

by NYRoyal on Mar 23, 2007 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Great post RD

no substitute for seeing a pitcher actually pitch. Sure beats a stats guy obsessing over a minor league WHIPPED (ha, I pulled a Buddy!). I've been dying to see him and good to hear the "stuff" matches the spring numbers.

IMO comparisons of scouting and stats are like those of real world business versus business school. In school decisions rely solely on numbers and models. In the real world they are more often made with instinct and experience.

I want to give Rosy some starts and let Soria ease in. I expect Rosy to fail as a starter due to pitch counts. At that point I'll trust Buddy's instincts to determine whether Soria has the makeup to become a starter this early.

by chukar on Mar 23, 2007 1:56 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

that's what i call

hitting the nail on the head. Thank you chukar. De La Rosa should get a chance, but he should be on a very short leash. When you have a guy who's young, hungry, and filthy waiting in the wings, patience runs thin. There are an awful lot of Debbie Downers out there, saying that this year is a waste already and that we have no chance of winning. I like Lou Brown's philosophy, "Let's get out there and give them all a big shitburger to eat".

royaldaddy-Bob Hamelin's #1 fan

by royaldaddy on Mar 23, 2007 2:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Amateur scouts

Do you really think some fan seeing a few innings of a guy pitch and doing his own personal amateur scouting is worth much?

by NYRoyal on Mar 23, 2007 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hey NY

Let me vent a little and then hopefully we can patch things up. Yea I always figure I can measure a pitcher's career potential after a couple innings in a B game. Or better yet, I just read some random poster's assessment and it's all good.

You're taking things too seriously here. Go back and read your questioning post to RD. I just thought the tone was a little insulting, so I had his back with a little chain yanking thrown in, not a big deal. Maybe I read it the wrong way.

I just haven't seen a whole lot of confrontational tone on this board, like the "amateur scouts" blast. But we're all big kids and we can deal with it. I'm sure I've rubbed some the wrong way at times as well. But I do try to keep it friendly. Just more enjoyable for me that way. In fact, if you go back and check your first post, I was the one to welcome you aboard. I was even willing to overlook that you're a Twins fan and living in New York, ha!

I've enjoyed reading your posts, and you obviously know your baseball. Hey, we exorcised the demon today, so let's celebrate by burying the hatchet. Welcome again and I hope we can still be brothers in blue! Certainly no hard feelings on my end.

by chukar on Mar 23, 2007 10:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm with you

Yeah, I didn't intend it to be as harsh as it sounded. Sometimes I get into things and then my tone gets a little over the top. Mea culpa. I'll try to rein it in.

As to the argument, I do value the opinion of scouts as well as meaningful stats. But it is hard for me to put a lot of weight in subjective "with my own eyes" judgments of a player from people who don't have serious professional baseball credentials.

by NYRoyal on Mar 24, 2007 12:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I come in peace also

but if you're looking for professional scouting, you're in the wrong place. My scouting experience is limited to drafting/coaching Little League. None of us here are pros, though. I just have a good idea of what to look for in a ballplayer. I enjoy your questioning and disagreements. Don't tone it down to the point where you aren't saying what you truly feel. You have a good, realistic (sometimes pessimistic, but who can blame a Royals fan for that?) view and it's certainly welcomed on my end. You and I are like Tony K. and Michael Wilbon from PTI. We're guys who have different takes, but see each others points and respect each other. I love it.

royaldaddy-Bob Hamelin's #1 fan

by royaldaddy on Mar 24, 2007 12:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's just how we roll in the old school

"Let's get out there and give them all a big shitburger to eat". Truly awesome, I'm inspired. You really should consider motivational speaking. Buddy should make it his slogan and get it on some t-shirts ala Pena.

by chukar on Mar 23, 2007 2:29 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Hmm

I think I've used a combination of "scouting" and numbers. If I was just basing this on numbers, I would say that Plummer and Braun deserve Soria's spot and Soria being on the team is a waste and he'll never be anything. From what I've seen, he could be very good (ie upside), but it's a very, very small sample size. I used the numbers to try and find a larger sample size to see if it backs up what I've seen. They do not. I am willing to say that he deserves a spot on the team over those other guys solely based on a higher upside and comparable numbers.

I'm tired of throwing guys out there on a wing and prayer. Ease him in..up his innings and see how he does. Throwing him out there without him being ready is repeating prior mistakes. We might as well bring Affeldt back and make him a starter..then a reliever..then a starter again. Cause that was fun.

by Stook on Mar 23, 2007 3:42 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Stook, I was responding to NYroyal

just thought he went a bit tough on RD, and really just venting on the whole stat vs scouting thing, no biggie. As you said: "I will admit that it is hard to compare numbers alone."

I was intrigued by this:
"He's still hanging curves that once the word gets out will be hit a LONG, LONG WAY."

Is this something he has a reputation for? Did you see this in his brief TV appearance?

Nice topic.

by chukar on Mar 23, 2007 4:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well both...

If you believe BA's Prospect Handbook, it says:

"His curveball is average, though he'll sometimes fly open in his mechanics and leaves it up."

On TV he has gotten a couple strikeouts on hanging curves. They had a nice change of speed to them though (69 MPH). I think ultimately it was that change of speed that fooled the batters. I remember Greinke throwing Thome a couple of his slow curves 2 years ago. One struck him out. The second..I'm not sure has come down yet.

It will be interesting to see how he adjusts when the hitters adjust.

by Stook on Mar 23, 2007 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

sorry if i came off as an ass

I didn't mean to offend stat guys. It's a combo of stat guys and coach/scout guys like me that create great ballclubs. I just think that this kid has got the total package that we've searched for far too long. He's not going to be Santana or Willis this year, but he has #1 stuff. You can see it. I've said it before and I'll probably say it again, put him in the pen at the start of the season, but if he tears it up, give him the ball.

royaldaddy-Bob Hamelin's #1 fan

by royaldaddy on Mar 23, 2007 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not at all

I knew yourself and loyal2sdad's position. I just wanted to see if I was way wrong and could argue your side based on his past success. I just couldn't get there.

I think at this point we are kind of arguing the on the same side though. We're just disagreeing on technicalities. I think yourself and loyal2s are just a little more excited by Soria and I am trying to be more tempered. I seem to get burned every time I get excited by a young pitcher (see Dan Riechert and Jeremy Affeldt).

by Stook on Mar 23, 2007 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You didn't

...come off as an ass. And I don't think statisitcal analysis on Soria tells us much. We're talking about low level stats and ST stats. That isn't worth much.

I think scouting reports from real scouts and stats are both important for player evaluation. What I have a problem with putting much stock in the subjective "scouting" judgments of fans. I'm supposed to believe that Soria has the stuff of a #1 starter because a fan saw him pitch a little in one game and liked how his pitched moveed? Come on.

by NYRoyal on Mar 23, 2007 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Another Soria supporter

My opinions are more based on what I saw on TV Wednesday night (although his few stats available look fine too) - and although I can completely understand easing him in, I also have to agree that he might just have the second or third best stuff on the team.

I can go along with easing in him, Stook, but my reasoning is based on concern with innings pitched at his age, not his ability to get people out. I think limiting him to about 120 innings this season makes sense - and that most likely means the long relief role. Let's hope those long relief appearances are used judiciously by BB; it would sorta be a shame if he threw 120 innings of 3.00 - 3.50 ERA and only pitched in 3 or 4 games that we won all year.

I really believe this issue will come up midseason - and we can all debate putting him in the rotation again.

I do agree that developing him is more important than winning this season - UNLESS we accidently find ourselves in the race at the All Star break like we did in 2003. Yes, that possibility is remote, but we thought the same thing starting 2003. What are the chances? I think it would be foolish to think the chances aren't at least 2 or 3%.

by loyal2s dad on Mar 23, 2007 10:12 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

This is getting to the point...

...that I'm very tempted to do the next Spreadsheet Baseball on this guy. He and the other back of the rotation candidates seem to present an intriguing issue.

"Your best? Losers always whine about 'giving it their best.' Winners go home and fuck the prom queen."

"Carla was the prom queen."

by NHZ on Mar 23, 2007 10:52 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Seems to be the hot issue right now

go for it.

by chukar on Mar 23, 2007 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed.

Would be interested to see that as well.

Have you had a chance to see any of the back of the rotation guys pitch on mlb.tv by chance?

by Stook on Mar 23, 2007 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not me, I have the Directv

package for the season so haven't seen any games yet. Can you buy individual games live on MLBtv, or just the downloads? I need to download just to see Soria.

by chukar on Mar 23, 2007 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

For Spring Training

I'm not sure. I've had the two or three games I've been able to watch up at work. Shhh..don't tell anybody. I think you'll be impressed if you do get to see him.

by Stook on Mar 23, 2007 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Stook, did you miss him when you were at ST.

I caught him pitching two innings. What I saw was good stuff but I liked the way he carried himself on the mound. No fear and no hesitation. He looked like an experienced pitcher rather than a rookie in his first major league action. He looked like he knew what he wanted to do out there and went after each batter effectively. I liked what I saw that day but it was only two innings.

He has made the team in my book. Rather he is in the rotation or the bullpen the Royals have a gem. By the end of the season he will be in the rotation and will have earned his way there.

He is one of GMDM's best pickups, if not the best...GO Big Blue....

by grudz69 on Mar 23, 2007 12:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

mound presence

that's what I think is his greatest asset. That's the reason I believe in him so much. Well, that and the fact that he's got "filthy" stuff.

royaldaddy-Bob Hamelin's #1 fan

by royaldaddy on Mar 23, 2007 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Unfortunately I didn't

I was disappointed that I did not get to see him pitch live. Truth be told, I probably would have been at a bad angle anyway.

I've seen about 6 innings or so of him on MLB.tv. I agree that he does have a certain presence on the field and seems to have an idea of what he wants to do (ie can pitch instead of throw). These are reasons to be excited about him for the next several years. Just no reason to get him burnt this year by placing him in the rotation too early, IMO.

by Stook on Mar 23, 2007 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Isn't Soria a Rule V guy?

If so that makes the point of other pitchers making the team before him ivnalid. Either he makes the team or we lose him, that simple. So if he has to make the team in order for us to keep him them we might as well use him in way that allows us to get the most out of him and him to get the most out of the experience. The fact that his development will be stunted is also a pointless argument becase he was taken in the Rule V draft. The fact that we have to keep him on the 25 man means that if we want him to develop he'll have to pitch at the big league level. In my opinion Soria has more of a chance to develop as a starter than by hiding him away in the bullpen and relegating him to mop-up only. Starting Soria will allow him to pitch in more meaningful situations, helping him learn how to pitch in real game speed,and save his arm by only having him pitch every 5 days or so. Simply put if the Royals didn't think that Soria was ready to pitch in the majors the should not have taken him in the Rule V draft. Now we have to use him or lose him.

by EricConley on Mar 23, 2007 1:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

My question

Has anyone seen Plummer pitch? I dont think I have.

by royalsreview on Mar 23, 2007 1:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Not me.

Which is why I can't make a legit argument that he's worth a crap. Somebody must see something that keeps him from making it out of A ball.

by Stook on Mar 23, 2007 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I saw him pitch for two innings in one of the firs

two games I saw out there. He looked good but still could use some time in Omaha. I think he will certainly be in our bullpen in September.

by grudz69 on Mar 23, 2007 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If you ask me,

I think Soria's spring performance so far might have been good enough to merit making the team even if he wasn't a Rule V...

I'll guess we'll never know the answer to that.

One other note - during the endless parade of player interviews, Hudson and Perez both praised Soria without even being asked/prompted to do so.
In the case of Hudson, he said it was the first time he had seen Soria in person due to B games/minor league games/road games, etc. He sounded blown away by Soria's stuff...

That's good enough for me.

by loyal2s dad on Mar 23, 2007 1:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Good point

I didn't pick up on that during the game the other day.

by Stook on Mar 23, 2007 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Great diary

Its easy to fall in love with a pitcher in spring training. Remember how good Jeremy Affeldt looked when he first came up?

I think its a bit silly to throw him into the rotation right now. Let him ease into the big leagues. It seems like there is a contingent of fans that want to rush everything. Rush Billy Butler up - he's obviously ready. Rush Joakim Soria into the rotation - he's obviously ready. I know its frustrating watching the Royals lose 90-100 games with guys like Reggie Sanders and Scott Elarton on the roster, but there is a method to the madness of actually waiting until a player is ready to contribute before throwing him into the fire. Good teams don't have guys flounder around and struggle their first few years - they often do well from the start. Why? Because they've been given time to develop in the minors (or the bullpen). We should do the same. I advocate putting Soria in the pen for long relief. Towards the end of the year, I'd love to see him get some starts, but lets' let him get acclimated to the big leagues first. Its a totally different world from Arizona spring training.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Mar 23, 2007 2:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Very well said

"Its easy to fall in love with a pitcher in spring training. Remember how good Jeremy Affeldt looked when he first came up?"

Talk about #1 starter stuff. 95 mph fastball and an amazing 12-6 curveball. It is very easy to see a little of a pitcher and project that he will be great. Unfortunately, these impressions we get from a little evidence aren't very reliable.

And you're right. Success requires patience. Making moves because we are desperate to do a little more winning right now won't make this team into a good playoff team in the future.

by NYRoyal on Mar 23, 2007 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yea

I think March is just "that time of the year" for sports fans where literally they are thrown into hormone imbalanced frenzies. Couple March Madness with Spring Training and the imminent arrival of Opening Day and you get a lot of fans getting a little stir crazy around the end of March. Its all good though.

Although I will say this, I thought he had just turned 22 recently so 07 would be his age 22 season, but he will be 23 this year so I wouldn't mind seeing him get a couple of spot starts later in the season. But this is a guy who has made only 13 career starts in full season ball, granted he made 13 in winter ball, but I wouldn't expect him to be able to just jump in and just put up Quality Starts.

by wildthang on Mar 23, 2007 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Meche scratched

I just read that Meche is missing his start today. What gives? Is he hurt? Hopefully it's nothing big.

by EricConley on Mar 23, 2007 3:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

uh ohh

by royalsreview on Mar 23, 2007 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Mexican Leagues and A ball

There really is little comparision between the Mexican Leagues and A ball stats. A ball stats are put up agains very young prospects many with no college ball experience, let alone major league experience. Those stats should look better.

Mexican Leauge stats are much closer to AAA stats because many of the player there actually have MLB experience. Soria's numbers were put up agains quality experienced players.

Soria's line is much more impressive by far.

If it weren't for baseball I'd be working.

by pd on Mar 23, 2007 3:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Hmmmm

"Mexican Leauge stats are much closer to AAA stats because many of the player there actually have MLB experience."

Mexican League has a huge variance in talent. Some players have major league experience. But some aren't even good enough to get into the minors at any level.

So I think it is most accurate to say that it is roughly the equivalent of AA.

"Soria's numbers were put up agains quality experienced players."

Against some quality players and some nobody hacks.

by NYRoyal on Mar 23, 2007 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'll give you I overstated the case

But I'd also argue that Soria put up his number in an environment not unlike Colorado nearly 2,000 ft above sea level. While Plummer was playing in High Desert, which is also a hitters leauge, but not to the same extent at playing in Mexio City.

If it weren't for baseball I'd be working.

by pd on Mar 23, 2007 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ok

Let's assume I agree with you and A ball is not comparable to Mexican League. This is the reason I included Ryan Braun. Their numbers are comparable. I still think Braun had the better year statistically.

by Stook on Mar 23, 2007 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs