Who is Mark Teahen? (warning, EQA and PECOTA mentioned...)
What do the Royals have with Mark Teahen? His season so far is basically nailing his 75th percentile PECOTA projection--.299 EQA vs. .304 Projected EQA. His BA and OBP are roughly in line with his 90th percentile projection and his SLG's right at his 50th percentile projection. He's striking out more than projected, but his high walk rate is keeping his K/BB ratio in line. By VORP, he's the fifth best RF in baseball, but if I was starting a team right now, I'd probably take him over three of the four guys ahead of him in VORP (Shawn Green, Magglio, Griffey). He's already an above-average fielder and could become elite with time. He runs the bases exceedingly well, takes walks, hits to all fields and has no discernible split disadvantage. So, my question: Who is Mark Teahen? How excited can we get about him? Will he develop the 30-35 HR power that elevates him to superstar status or is .500 SLG the best fans can hope for? Is he a difference-maker or a solid role player?
I have no answer, but to me, this (along with Buck's development) is the most exciting storyline of the '07 season. Is Mark Teahen a star? And if you're having trouble getting excited about the Royals, how does this '08 opening day lineup strike you?: DeJesus, Teahen, Butler, Gordon, Shealy, Buck, Costa, German, Pena. (I doubt we'll see this lineup because of the back-to-back lefties and righties, but that's ridiculous. Teahen's a perfect two hitter.
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Interesting
by lordbyronk on May 22, 2007 2:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Also
by lordbyronk on May 22, 2007 2:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm sold on Teahen
I agree that he would make an ideal # 2 hitter, but given our current offensive skill level, I think he should stay at # 3 at least thru 2008.
Long range, ideally Gordon would fit into the 3 hole, with Butler hitting 4th - but that may be another couple of years away.
Here's an interesting comparison on Teahen's offense (and this is completely subjective; I didn't run any comparisons of the "most like this guy" type): He seems like a young Jim Edmonds with the stick. Some of the younger posters might not remember that Edmonds was a 2 hole hitter for the Angels at one time. Great combination of on base skills with good, if not great secondary slugging avg skills. (Remember, you can make up for being a "just" 20 HR guy if you are always chipping in 35 or 40 doubles with another 5-10 triples every year, like Teahen might be capable of). If Teahen ends up with a career like Edmonds, I think we all would be quite satisfied. Who knows, maybe he ends up better?
by loyal2s dad on May 22, 2007 3:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
very interesting...
i'm with you, though. i'm sold. lock him up through his arb years ASAP.
by Billex Gordler on May 22, 2007 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Interesting
by Berroa is the devil on May 22, 2007 3:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
+1
The speed is nice, but a bit superfluous. He's a good athelete. But I suspect both his and Gordon's steals are more a case of taking advantage of smarts and good scouting of noodle-armed catchers like Jason Kendall. But that's a good thing, at least the Royals are scouting something properly. But for hitters like Teahen and Gordon, the steals are a bonus. Strike zone judgment and power are more important.
I think the Royals top 6-7 could be pretty devastating already next year.
- Dejesus CF
- German 2B
- Gordon 3B (or flip him with Teahen, if he's still not all there)
- Butler (LF/DH)
- Teahen RF (Or Gordon)
- Shealy 1B
- BUCK C
- Can't we get a decent LF or DH on the cheap? Paging Justin Huber. Not back hitting 7th or eigth)
- no-hit SS de jour.
by Matt Klaassen on May 22, 2007 3:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Last week at the game
by wildthang on May 22, 2007 4:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Compared to Edmonds
Now that I look at Edmonds, his hot stretch (2000-2004, as Billex Gordler points out) was from age 29-33, which is arguably starts a couple of years later than one might guess would be the most prevelant age range for one's best 5 year span.
Looking at what Teahen has done by age 25 with the stick, and (perhaps optimistically) looking at Teahen's height, frame, swing, and athleticism, one could argue he could potentially develop into nearly as good an offensive player as Edmonds was.
Naturally, he would have more value as a CF or 3B, but the ballclub has already hinted that he might be a candidate to move to CF one day. Who knows what that might mean? It could mean they move DeJesus to LF to make room for somebody in RF, or it could mean they might entertain the idea of trading DeJesus around, say 2010 or so, or it could just be idle speculation by a KC Star reporter desperate to fill his column.
by loyal2s dad on May 22, 2007 4:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Teahen is a star
I think Teahen will be a .300/.375/.500 type hitter for his career, though the power could spike when he starts to hit his peak power years. Mark will never be recognized by the media as a great player, but we, the KC fans will know who he is.
by doublestix on May 22, 2007 4:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Edmonds/Teahen: more comparable than we think?
The following are season-adjusted stats (162 games) for Teahen, thru the current, and Edmonds, which I used thru his 2005 year for ease of calculating. This seems reasonable close to similar time frame, as Teahen was born on 9/6/81, and data is for 283 games played to date, when is 25 yrs 8 months old. Edmonds was born on 6/27/70, and his stats are for 253 games played by the end of the 2005 season, at which point he was 25 yrs 3 months old.
Edmonds 283/343/472 53 BB 140 K per 162 games, and a BABIP of 334
Teahen 273/343/445 59 BB 133 K per 162 games, and a BABIP of 330
What does it all mean?
Well, for pulling a player comparison out of my ass, that wasn't too bad.
Edmonds increased slugging percentage as he aged seems higher than a normal amount to me, so most likely Teahen will not start turning in 600 slugging percentage years. On the other hand, if he starts turning in 550 slugging years (and that doesn't seem that unreasonable, does it?), then we have one HELL of a productive bat on our hands, don't we?
I haven't touched the park-effects aspect of this, and frankly I don't want to. My gut tells me Kauffman is taking some HRs away from Mark; of course, it most likely helps him with all other hit types. Edmonds did compile his best years while STL was playing as an avg to above avg hitter's park (or at least that's what I think off the top of my head).
by loyal2s dad on May 22, 2007 4:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
excellent stuff, dad...
A quick chart (Age, Year, Team, EQA (park adjusted and year adjusted):
Drew
24 2000 STL--.293
25 2001 STL--.335
26 2002 STL--.276
27 2003 STL--.300
28 2004 ATL--.334
29 2005 LAD--.321
Walker
25 1992 MON--.309
26 1993 MON--.297
27 1994 MON--.320
28 1995 COL--.292
29 1996 COL--.276
30 1997 COL--.338
31 1998 COL--.322
32 1999 COL--.330
33 2000 COL--.273
34 2001 COL--.329
35 2002 COL--.315
Edmonds
27 1997 ANA--.284
28 1998 ANA--.286
29 1999 ANA--.250
30 2000 STL--.321
31 2001 STL--.323
32 2002 STL--.332
33 2003 STL--.325
34 2004 STL--.341
35 2005 STL--.306
makes you wonder what's in the water in saint loo, no?
if these comps are legit, then mr. teahen has a great chance to be a superstar regardless of how much press he gets.
by Billex Gordler on May 22, 2007 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

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