Royals Review: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
Login-facebook
Network Message: 50% Off: CBS/SB Nation Fantasy Baseball

Who is Mark Teahen? (warning, EQA and PECOTA mentioned...)

What do the Royals have with Mark Teahen?  His season so far is basically nailing his 75th percentile PECOTA projection--.299 EQA vs. .304 Projected EQA.  His BA and OBP are roughly in line with his 90th percentile projection and his SLG's right at his 50th percentile projection.  He's striking out more than projected, but his high walk rate is keeping his K/BB ratio in line.  By VORP, he's the fifth best RF in baseball, but if I was starting a team right now, I'd probably take him over three of the four guys ahead of him in VORP (Shawn Green, Magglio, Griffey).  He's already an above-average fielder and could become elite with time.  He runs the bases exceedingly well, takes walks, hits to all fields and has no discernible split disadvantage.  So, my question:  Who is Mark Teahen?  How excited can we get about him?  Will he develop the 30-35 HR power that elevates him to superstar status or is .500 SLG the best fans can hope for?  Is he a difference-maker or a solid role player?

I have no answer, but to me, this (along with Buck's development) is the most exciting storyline of the '07 season.  Is Mark Teahen a star?  And if you're having trouble getting excited about the Royals, how does this '08 opening day lineup strike you?: DeJesus, Teahen, Butler, Gordon, Shealy, Buck, Costa, German, Pena.  (I doubt we'll see this lineup because of the back-to-back lefties and righties, but that's ridiculous.  Teahen's a perfect two hitter.  

0 recs  |  Comment 11 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

Interesting
I could see Teahen hitting two, because of the speed and OBP, but he also is very clutch.  It might better serve us to have him bat lower in the order perhaps fifth behind Gordon and Butler.  That lineup does look awfully good, we could score some runs with that lineup.  Lubanski or Costa might make it in left?  Who is the future in LF?  Hopefully, the growing pains this year will lead to a bigger payoff down the line.
lordbyronk

by lordbyronk on May 22, 2007 2:25 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Also
one point I forgot to mention.  Teahen probably has 20 to 25 HR power, but it's still developing so there is a possibility of running with the elite.  I think he's just a solid contibutor in the heart of the lineup.
lordbyronk

by lordbyronk on May 22, 2007 2:27 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I'm sold on Teahen
I think that the post Omaha Teahen from the 2nd half last year is legit. I wouldn't be afraid to sign this guy to a 4-5 year deal, like they did DeJesus, if he is willing.

I agree that he would make an ideal # 2 hitter, but given our current offensive skill level, I think he should stay at # 3 at least thru 2008.

Long range, ideally Gordon would fit into the 3 hole, with Butler hitting 4th - but that may be another couple of years away.

Here's an interesting comparison on Teahen's offense (and this is completely subjective; I didn't run any comparisons of the "most like this guy" type): He seems like a young Jim Edmonds with the stick. Some of the younger posters might not remember that Edmonds was a 2 hole hitter for the Angels at one time. Great combination of on base skills with good, if not great secondary slugging avg skills. (Remember, you can make up for being a "just" 20 HR guy if you are always chipping in 35 or 40 doubles with another 5-10 triples every year, like Teahen might be capable of).  If Teahen ends up with a career like Edmonds, I think we all would be quite satisfied. Who knows, maybe he ends up better?

by loyal2s dad on May 22, 2007 3:26 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

very interesting...
i would love to agree with you on the edmonds comp as a best-case scenario but edmonds was as good as any non-bonds player in baseball from 2000-2004.  take a look at his numbers.  he was just sick.  plus he was the best defensive CF in baseball.  i love what teahen's done in two months in right field, but even the very best RFer isn't as valuable as a CF with similar numbers.  edmonds had much more power at a younger age, but teahen has better on base numbers and more SBs.  if teahen fills out and keeps his speed and athleticism, he has a chance to be close to that, but he has a long way to go to get there.

i'm with you, though.  i'm sold.  lock him up through his arb years ASAP.  

by Billex Gordler on May 22, 2007 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Interesting
OK, Loyal2sdad, you made me go to Baseball Reference to check out Edmonds' stats. And yes, if Teahen puts up those numbers, we will all be extremely happy. One note of interest, Edmonds has 22 career triples. Teahen already has 13. But it's only 5000 less at bats so he has some time to get to 22. Edmonds was a doubles machine though.

by Berroa is the devil on May 22, 2007 3:45 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

+1
Despite what I posted elsewhere, I do like Teahen. I still think his bat is more impressive at 3B than RF, and he's more of a 20-25 HR  hitter a la Paul O'Neill than a power monster like Gordon and Butler will (knock on wood) probably be. But hey, you'd take Paul O'Neill, right?

The speed is nice, but a bit superfluous. He's a good athelete. But I suspect both his and Gordon's steals are more a case of taking advantage of smarts and good scouting of noodle-armed catchers like Jason Kendall. But that's a good thing, at least the Royals are scouting something properly. But for hitters like Teahen and Gordon, the steals are a bonus. Strike zone judgment and power are more important.

I think the Royals top 6-7 could be pretty devastating already next year.

  1. Dejesus CF
  2. German 2B
  3. Gordon 3B (or flip him with Teahen, if he's still not all there)
  4. Butler (LF/DH)
  5. Teahen RF (Or Gordon)
  6. Shealy 1B
  7. BUCK C
  8. Can't we get a decent LF or DH on the cheap? Paging Justin Huber. Not back hitting 7th or eigth)
  9. no-hit SS de jour.
That's with current playurs, and splits up the lefties, with OBP up top, and power (and patience) right behind, and no need to explain why a "good bat control guy" (in other words, no pop or patience) guy is hitting second, because you've actually got a competent hitter there. No holes, except for #9. That's comparable, overall, with any other team in the Central, and probably better than the White Sox or Twins. Which is good, because I have a feeling that even next year, 4 our of 5 days they'll need to score 6+ runs.

by Matt Klaassen on May 22, 2007 3:49 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Last week at the game
I got pretty excited watching Teahen and seeing his OBP up there. The guy is just a gamer.
TOWN BIZ. WHAT IT IS.

by wildthang on May 22, 2007 4:07 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Compared to Edmonds
Note - I was just comparing him offensively to Edmonds. Obviously, Teahen will never be as valuable a defender as Edmonds.

Now that I look at Edmonds, his hot stretch (2000-2004, as Billex Gordler points out) was from age 29-33, which is arguably starts a couple of years later than one might guess would be the most prevelant age range for one's best 5 year span.

Looking at what Teahen has done by age 25 with the stick, and (perhaps optimistically) looking at Teahen's height, frame, swing, and athleticism, one could argue he could potentially develop into nearly as good an offensive player as Edmonds was.

Naturally, he would have more value as a CF or 3B, but the ballclub has already hinted that he might be a candidate to move to CF one day. Who knows what that might mean? It could mean they move DeJesus to LF to make room for somebody in RF, or it could mean they might entertain the idea of trading DeJesus around, say 2010 or so, or it could just be idle speculation by a KC Star reporter desperate to fill his column.

by loyal2s dad on May 22, 2007 4:16 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Teahen is a star
He is. I don't think he'll hit big time HR numbers, but I think he can be a 25 HR guy annually, maybe touching 30 or 35 in a spike year. He's a 5-tool player, although not one tool really sticks out at you. Mark is a gamer, he is a winnner.

I think Teahen will be a .300/.375/.500 type hitter for his career, though the power could spike when he starts to hit his peak power years. Mark will never be recognized by the media as a great player, but we, the KC fans will know who he is.

by doublestix on May 22, 2007 4:46 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Edmonds/Teahen: more comparable than we think?
OK, I looked at this again, this time using, as close as I could easily compare using ESPN stats.

The following are season-adjusted stats (162 games) for Teahen, thru the current, and Edmonds, which I used thru his 2005 year for ease of calculating. This seems reasonable close to similar time frame, as Teahen was born on 9/6/81, and data is for 283 games played to date, when is 25 yrs 8 months old. Edmonds was born on 6/27/70, and his stats are for 253 games played by the end of the 2005 season, at which point he was 25 yrs 3 months old.

Edmonds 283/343/472  53 BB 140 K per 162 games, and a BABIP of 334

Teahen 273/343/445   59 BB 133 K per 162 games, and a BABIP of 330

What does it all mean?

Well, for pulling a player comparison out of my ass, that wasn't too bad.

Edmonds increased slugging percentage as he aged seems higher than a normal amount to me, so most likely Teahen will not start turning in 600 slugging percentage years. On the other hand, if he starts turning in 550 slugging years (and that doesn't seem that unreasonable, does it?), then we have one HELL of a productive bat on our hands, don't we?

I haven't touched the park-effects aspect of this, and frankly I don't want to. My gut tells me Kauffman is taking some HRs away from Mark; of course, it most likely helps him with all other hit types. Edmonds did compile his best years while STL was playing as an avg to above avg hitter's park (or at least that's what I think off the top of my head).

by loyal2s dad on May 22, 2007 4:48 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

excellent stuff, dad...
confession:  my first response to your comparison was very positive, ie, i was totally on board.  it was only after going after his stats that i realized how impressive edmonds's peak was.  edmonds is a borderline hall of famer and, the more i think about it, a perfect rose-colored, glass half-full, best-case offensive comp for teahen.  the most instructive comps that BP offers are Larry Walker and J.D. Drew.  aside from positional similarities, those also seem like optimistic but not unreasonable expectations for Teahen.  BPs translated EQAs for Walker, Edmonds and Drew look shockingly similar, each with 3-5 monster, superstar years along with consistently strong production in other years.

A quick chart (Age, Year, Team, EQA (park adjusted and year adjusted):

Drew

24 2000 STL--.293
25 2001 STL--.335
26 2002 STL--.276
27 2003 STL--.300
28 2004 ATL--.334
29 2005 LAD--.321

Walker

25 1992 MON--.309
26 1993 MON--.297
27 1994 MON--.320
28 1995 COL--.292
29 1996 COL--.276
30 1997 COL--.338
31 1998 COL--.322
32 1999 COL--.330
33 2000 COL--.273
34 2001 COL--.329
35 2002 COL--.315

Edmonds

27 1997 ANA--.284
28 1998 ANA--.286
29 1999 ANA--.250
30 2000 STL--.321
31 2001 STL--.323
32 2002 STL--.332
33 2003 STL--.325
34 2004 STL--.341
35 2005 STL--.306

makes you wonder what's in the water in saint loo, no?

if these comps are legit, then mr. teahen has a great chance to be a superstar regardless of how much press he gets.

by Billex Gordler on May 22, 2007 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

Welcome to the SB Nation blog about Kansas City Royals.
Start posting about the Royals »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

Connect_with_facebook

Cbs_fantasy_baseball_promo

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

Small
Royals 2009 review and 2010 manifesto
Mst_small
Anagrams for each name on the 40-Man Roster
Nyroyal3a_small
Worst Decisions Possible: 2010
Royalsretro_small
Reasons to be excited for Royals baseball in 2010

Recent FanPosts

2147001259_7c385ab477_small
Perfect non perfect game
N-star_20color_small
Game 7 Lineup (3/11) & Moustakas Assigned to Minor League Camp
Small
I need your help!
Drteeth_small
The Quick and Dirty on the 40....Off the Dome
Small
anyone seen Juan Cruz?
Small
Royals Go Cheap Again
Small
Free Yahoo Keeper League
150px-rickreilly_small
FireRickReilly Royals Preview
Alexgordon_small
Alex Gordon depresses me
Small
Bullpen Banter's Royals Preview and our Top 25 Propsects

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >


Managers

Royalsreview_small Will McDonald