2008 Projected Lineup (Rotoworld)

by Rhody Royals on Sep 26, 2007 9:31 AM EDT Comment 42 comments

Rotoworld posted their projected lineups for 2008 and have suggested a couple of moves. Teahen being traded for Paul Byrd? Geoff Jenkins or Ben Francisco taking over in RF and Shannon Stewart in LF. No mention of Hochevar or Buckner in the starting rotation. Thought this might be of interest to everyone...

Kansas City

CF David DeJesus

2B Mark Grudzielanek

3B Alex Gordon

DH Billy Butler

RF Geoff Jenkins/Ben Francisco

LF Shannon Stewart/Joey Gathright

1B Ross Gload/Ryan Shealy

C John Buck

SS Tony Pena Jr.

Gil Meche

Paul Byrd

Brian Bannister

Zack Greinke

Kyle Davies/Jorge De La Rosa

Joakim Soria

David Riske

Jimmy Gobble

With Buddy Bell resigning, the Royals' first priority this winter will be deciding on a new manager. Terry Pendleton is looked at as a favorite, though he may pass and wait for the opportunity to take over for Bobby Cox in Atlanta. Then again, the Kansas City job is quite a bit more attractive now than it's been in some time. Alex Gordon and Billy Butler are the biggest reasons why, but the Royals also have the makings of a solid pitching staff and an owner finally willing to spend some money.

The Royals will want to add at least one more starter this winter. It looked like it'd have to be two, but Zack Greinke has served notice that he belongs in the rotation and he should enter spring training with a spot to lose. With few quality starters available in free agency, the Royals should turn to the trade market. Paul Byrd would be ideal since he's pitched in Kansas City before and likely would be open to sticking around after 2008. Loaiza, Capuano and Dave Bush could also be possibilities. If the Royals do explore the free agent options, it figures that they'll be in on Carlos Silva, Jon Lieber and Kyle Lohse.

Joakim Soria's emergence means the Royals won't have to chase a closer. Still, if one falls into their laps, much like Octavio Dotel did last year, they could use Soria as a setup man.

The offense could be fairly well set except for the outfield. The Royals could pick up someone to play first base like Sean Casey or Dan Johnson, but they like Ross Gload and wouldn't be afraid to platoon him there with Shealy. The outfield could be completely jumbled with Emil Brown and Reggie Sanders expected to depart and both David DeJesus and Mark Teahen candidates to be traded. I have Teahen going for Byrd, opening up right field for a free agent. Geoff Jenkins would be a nice middle-of-the-order option, and he probably won't be very expensive. Signing a veteran to battle Joey Gathright for playing time in left field makes sense. With the lineup getting a little lefty heavy, Shannon Stewart, Craig Monroe or Scott Podsednik would work. I like the idea of trading for Jonny Gomes, but I'm guessing Dayton Moore doesn't.

The Royals could be a .500 team in 2009 with luck. In the National League, they'd have a realistic chance of getting there next year.

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Teahen for Paul Byrd?

That would not be a good trade for the Royals at all.

I do like Goeff Jenkins. I thought his numbers the last two years were pretty bad, but when I looked again recently, they really are fairly decent.

2006 - 484 at bats, .271/.357/.434, 17 HR, 70 RBI.
2007 - 405 at bats. .259/.324/.479, 21 HR, 63 RBI.

A .791 and .803 OPS' are not great for a corner outfielder, but they still would have made him one of the best hitters on the Royals roster. I would be OK with Dayton Moore signing him to a two or three year contract.

Rock Chalk Talk for pretty good KU College Baseball Coverage

by James Quinn on Sep 26, 2007 9:56 AM EDT reply actions

I was thinking about this more on my walk to work

In retrospect, if we assume that Emil is just having a bad year and he will likely return to his 2005/2006 form, I am not sure why Goeff Jenkins would be an upgrade over Emil Brown. They probably will have similar power and OPS numbers.

Why would I be so ready to get rid of a cheap Emil and pay twice as much for Jenkins? I am not sure.

Rock Chalk Talk for pretty good KU College Baseball Coverage

by James Quinn on Sep 26, 2007 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions

Probably because when...

it comes to discussing Emil "Nationwide" "Pellet gun" Brown our judgement is clouded by how unlikeable he is. Plus, if it wasn't for his high RBI total his numbers are just awful this year. Maybe we can't assume his numbers will bounce back given his age. I just think of it this way. If we could upgrade only one position offensively it would come down to 1b, lf, and ss for me. Emil is probably the highest paid, has the least upside and has the worst attitude of those three offensive black holes.

by djk royal on Sep 26, 2007 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions

I think the difference is significant

Jenkins has had nine consecutive seasons with an OPS+ over 100 including highs of 133 and 131. This year's OPS+ is 104.

Brown has had 2 seasons with an OPS+ over 100, which makes for highs of 113 and 104. This year's OPS+ is 67.

I think the big difference between the two is consistency, and therefore risk. You know you're going to get at least league average hitting from Jenkins, with upside potential of more than that. With Brown, you might get league average production with a significant risk of getting much less than that.

Brown will be cheaper, but not cheap. He'll get more than $4M in arbitration. I don't think he's worth it. I'd rather pay more for someone who is more reliable. That being said, I wouldn't give Jenkins a 4-year contract.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Sep 26, 2007 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions

You think Emil with get over $4M?

I would be surprised. But it is possible. He has had a strong finish.

Most likely it is a non-issue as I do not expect the Royals to offer him arbitration. Unless they trade him before November I think he becomes an unrestricted free agent for 2008 once the Royals non-tender him. This would allow him to sign with anyone for any price.

I just don't see Emil getting a salary that large next year if he leaves the Royals. For some reason I think he will be playing in Japan next year and earning a decent paycheck. If any MLB team signs him I expect it will be either Baltimore or the White Sox. Maybe Washington? Bowden loves reclamation projects as well.

Rock Chalk Talk for pretty good KU College Baseball Coverage

by James Quinn on Sep 26, 2007 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions

Arbitration

IIRC, arbitration decisions are made by looking at a player's last 3 years. So that would be two pretty good years and one bad one. I think that would kick his $3.45M salary definitely up over $4M. It's just a question of how much over $4M. So, if the Royals offer him arbitration, that's how much he'll get.

If he becomes a FA, he may well get less than $4M.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Sep 26, 2007 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions

Only the last two years are used.

You might be right though. Arbitration awards always seem to rise with each year of service, regardless as to what the actual on-field improvement. I do not know why, but the difference between 1st, 2nd and 3rd year awards are normally very large, even if the player involved has not shown improved play. I guess consistency might be the answer. Certainly arbitration rewards consistency over potential.

Rock Chalk Talk for pretty good KU College Baseball Coverage

by James Quinn on Sep 26, 2007 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions

Yes, arbitration awards go up

They measure performance against the salaries of guys with similar service time. So, each year, your salary is going up. I bet if he went to arbitration, the Royals would offer $4M and Brown would counter with $5M. That's why he will be non-tendered.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Sep 26, 2007 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions

Emil needs to be non-tendered,

as his bad season is just average-driven. His IsoP is down too. If we could Jenkins for a reasonable salary and recognize the fact that he generally kills righties and sucks versus lefties, it's an interesting possibility.

"True friends stab you in the front."-Oscar Wilde.

by NHZ on Sep 26, 2007 6:44 PM EDT up reply actions

How is Huber's platoon split?

if he hit's lefties that could be a good pair.

by lordbyronk on Sep 26, 2007 7:25 PM EDT up reply actions

Who is this guy?

He does make a couple of points that make sense in the article--I've been thinking about Sean Casey for a couple of weeks now: him splitting 1B/DH duties with Butler instead of anybody else we have is a definite upgrade and I think he'd be far more affordable than a lot of power hitters. Plus, he's the nicest guy in the major leagues, and would thus fill Sweeney's "good influence" role with the added benefit of still being better than Sweeney at this point.

But overall, I think this guy doesn't have a clue about Dayton Moore, who, in one off-season, has already shown his market prefernces. First, Teahen's not going to be traded for Byrd (too, too old) and Francisco (check out the Indians entry), who is the same age as Teahen and I don't think has any more upside than Teahen. This move really doesn't help the Royals at all. While Teahen could still have considerable trade value as a 3B who can also play outfield, and the Royals may want to consider moving, as there is a chance his power will not return, I think it has to be a lot more offered to trade him. While we tend to overvalue our players, objectively, Teahen's value is better than that.

Second, Geoff Jenkins? He'll be 34 next year, which wouldn't necessarily be bad (same as Casey), but he's going to cost a lot more. I realize Dayton needs to find power where he can, but Dayton has said he prefers to acquire big money free agents heading into their prime years, and Jenkins could demand over $8M/year in this market. The Royals would likely have to add in millions or years, so you could be looking at $36M/4 years for the downward slope of Jenkins' career. Not worth it at all.

Third, please, oh please, don't put Gload and Shealy in the same sentence again. It's woefully inadequate for 1B when 1) there are affordable, short-contract power guys on the market and 2) Butler SHOULD get to play there on at least a semi-regular basis.

Fourth, pitching. I appreciate the guy adding in a starter, but it's not going to be Paul Byrd. If we're trading a DDJ or Teahen and some system depth for a starter, it's gotta be someone younger. Second, Moore has already said Soria gets a shot at the rotation, and with Buddy gone (who, I'm sorry, cannot seem to shake an idea once he gets it), that might be a real shot. If given that chance, Soria earns it--I think he's better than Banny as a starter next year. I'd prefer the Dotel route again--find the most undervalued reliever with stuff on the market and give him a one-year, incentive loaded contract to close. Also, I would hope Riske returns, but I really think he'll wind up elsewhere if he tests the market.

But, other than that...

by CentralChamps2009 on Sep 26, 2007 10:18 AM EDT reply actions

Riske....

His wife is from the KC area, and I thought he was already locked up through 08? I doubt he is leaving with the direction of the team and his performance this year.

-- Royals Delegate to the land of the Salmon and Moose (Seattle)

by RoyalsFanInMarinerTown on Sep 26, 2007 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions

Riske has a player option

His team option turned into a player option a couple weeks ago when he appeared in his 60th game.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Sep 26, 2007 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions

And I believe

He's already said he's interested in testing the market.

by CentralChamps2009 on Sep 26, 2007 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions

Rotoworld

Good for fantasy information. Horrible for real world baseball analysis. I don't know if any GM would be stupid enough to trade a young, cheap talented LF/CF/3B for a pretty good, old starting pitcher.

Geoff Jenkins, however, isn't a stupid idea. Of the power hitting FA's, he's one who is actually pretty good and probaby affordable, and won't require a very long-term deal.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Sep 26, 2007 10:56 AM EDT reply actions

The proposed trade

would have been Byrd and Francisco for Teahen so the Royals would have been getting a younger OF prospect in return as well as the ageing veteran pitcher. I would not make the deal myself as I would rather keep Teahen and go with a younger starting pitcher over Byrd. I just wanted to point out what someone else out there was posting in terms of potential moves.

by Rhody Royals on Sep 26, 2007 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions

That makes it more palatable

But I wonder how much upside Francisco has. Also, Byrd is just a one-year rental. If the Indians are looking for a CFer (and they are), I'd rather trade them DeJesus.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Sep 26, 2007 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions

grady?

Why would the Indians be looking for a center fielder?

by Moose Tacos on Sep 26, 2007 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions

The same reason they acquired Lofton this year

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Sep 26, 2007 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions

he has been playing left

by Moose Tacos on Sep 27, 2007 9:46 AM EDT up reply actions

It's the "probably affordable"

I'm not convinced of. He made $7.3M this year. He still averages around .800 OPS, so I don't think his market value will be less than what he makes now. This is a thin market. I don't know if the Royals did enough this year to level the playing field so that they will not have to again overpay. That's why I fear a salary as high a $9 million a year and a 4-year contract are not out of the question for him, and that is too much for too long.

If I'm wrong on all of the above, and he's available to the Royals somewhere like $20M over 3 years, then, by all means, I'm on board. After the escalation we saw in last year's market, I don't know if that's realistic.

by CentralChamps2009 on Sep 26, 2007 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions

Good point

With the wild salary inflation we've seen, anything is possible. I wouldn't sign Jenkins to any contract for 4 years. And $9M sounds very high. That might be his value in this market, but he probably isn't worth it to the Royals. We'll see how the FA market shakes out.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Sep 26, 2007 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions

Goeff Jenkins might come for under market value

He has a reputation as a bit of an ass who will not listen to coaching. There is the ass discount to keep in mind.

Speaking of ass discounts, boy, I bet Bradley priced himself back into the KC range. The Royals could give him a Dotelesque deal? A decent one year salary (say $2M) with an binding option for a second year based on playing time (at say, $5M). Even though he will only be able to play half a year with KC in 2008 this could work out very much in the Royals favor.

Rock Chalk Talk for pretty good KU College Baseball Coverage

by James Quinn on Sep 26, 2007 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions

Ass discounts

That would be nice. Hard to say how much Bradley's discount would be. I think someone would offer him a base salary higher than $2M. But I don't dislike the idea in general. I just hope his poisonous personality wouldn't rub off on the many young, developing players on the club.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Sep 26, 2007 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions

Shannon Stewart?

by Will McDonald on Sep 26, 2007 12:46 PM EDT reply actions

Pass-adena

Not interested...at all...ever.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Sep 26, 2007 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions

Geoff Jenkins is Reggie Sanders

part 2. He's the typical aging vet that comes to KC a year too late and he's already washed up. We went down this road in the early 90s and it didn't work, so why would it work now? Given the choice, I would trade Dejesus and move Teahen to center. And if this guy thinks Soria will ever be a setup man to Dotel again, he doesn't know jackshit about baseball. Soria should be in our rotation, but if not, he will be our closer.

by royaldaddy on Sep 26, 2007 1:17 PM EDT reply actions

Makes sense

Picking up Stewart & Jenkins & Byrd makes all kind of sense, if you're Allard Baird. 2008 will still be a rebuilding year. We need to play young players, find hidden gems and acquire for the future. Picking up two marginal veterans like this is sending the organization in the wrong direction. Trying to make the jump towards a contender before we're ready -- the same error Baird made every season.

Nothing against the players, but it's the wrong move, wrong time. Find youth with potential.

by David Howards Legacy on Sep 26, 2007 1:29 PM EDT reply actions

Some space fillers are ok

There is a big hole in the OF. No prospects are yet ready to fill it. I would rather sign a veteran short-term FA to play left field than waste at bats on Shane Costa in the hopes that he'll magically learn how to hit major league pitching.

So some space fillers are ok...just not too many please. I wouldn't mind getting another SP. We have a good 1-3, but after that we have soft depth. If it were the right guy for the right price, I wouldn't be averse to that.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Sep 26, 2007 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions

Nothing against Jenkins,

but I'd rather spend, say 15-18 million a year for Adam Dunn than 8-10 million a year for Jenkins.

If you're going to solve a problem, why not make the solution a REAL upgrade?

Just my 2 cents.

by loyal2s dad on Sep 26, 2007 1:57 PM EDT reply actions

Adam Dunn's last four seasons

2004 - 161 games - .266/.388/.569. 46 HR, 102 RBI, 108 BB.
2005 - 160 games - .247/.387/.540. 40 HR, 101 RBI, 114 BB.
2006 - 160 games - .234/.365/.490. 40 HR, 92 RBI, 112 BB.
2007 - 152 games - .264/.386/.554. 40 HR, 101 RBI, 101 BB.

My lord, the guy is consistently a monster. If sweaterpants does not pick up his option he is about to become an obscenely wealthy guy.

I have to think his option will be picked up. It is just too crazy not to do so. Krivsky is a world class jackass, but even he can't be so dumb as to pass on one more year of Dunn at $13M.

Rock Chalk Talk for pretty good KU College Baseball Coverage

by James Quinn on Sep 26, 2007 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions

Same problem

He's consistently a monster at the GAB. What kind of monster would he be at Kauffman Stadium? That's pretty risky for a 5+ year contract.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Sep 26, 2007 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions

he'd still be great

This year at Home: 19 HR .277/.395/.570
This year Away: 21 HR .252/.378/.538

Sure, there's a dropoff, but even if he merely produced at the level outside of the GAB, he'd unquestionably be the best hitter the team's seen in a long time.

by marbotty on Sep 26, 2007 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions

He'd still be good

If we look at a larger sample size (last 4 years) these are his stats away from GAB:

.245/.373/.501 (874 OPS)

Those are good numbers, but they aren't worth the $15M+ per year for 5+ year contract he'll be getting.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Sep 26, 2007 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions

RE: Projected Lineup

I think signing Geoff Jenkins as a placeholder for a year or two would be a good signing. The Byrd/Fransisco for Teahen is crazy. There is no way I make that trade. Shannon Stewart is a lot like players that we already have, in particular DDJ, great OBP, 10-15HR power, good all around OF. Really, I think we should add a solid veteran like Jenkins, and build around what we have. A full season of Gordon and Butler in the majors will provide some of the power we are looking for and if we can get solid contributions from Shealy, Teahen, and Jenkins, then we'll be in the middle of the pack offensively.

by lordbyronk on Sep 26, 2007 2:37 PM EDT reply actions

Mlb trade rumors

just mentioned that Matt Kemp of the Dodgers may be avaliable. Dejesus name is mentioned as our trading chip. Thoughts?

by gordonrules on Sep 26, 2007 5:10 PM EDT reply actions

Love it

When I brought up the Dejesus for a young power hitter idea, I was thinking about Kemp and Loney. Of course there are other possibilities as well. But I think that is the kind of move the Royals should make.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Sep 26, 2007 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions

Agree

I like both of those guys and I was thinking about them last night as I watched the Dodgers playing the Rox. Loney of course hit a 3-run bomb so that may have sparked some more interest from me but I have liked these guys all year. I just hope they can keep up their early numbers, that is if we were to acquire one of them.

by MileHighKCfan on Sep 26, 2007 6:27 PM EDT up reply actions