Enough???

Hey folks, Billex here.  So we have seen the future of Royals baseball.  Is it enough?

The core of the current Royals team is likely the core of any success or failure the Royals will have during the next 3-5 years.  There are no ML-ready prospects on the farm.  Anyone who projects to be a good or better ML player is in KC.  The question is:  Is it enough?  Can the Royals count on improvement from their young players to challenge for a playoff spot in the coming years?

There's certainly reason for optimism.  Barring injury, Gordon and Butler should be heart of the order threats for a long time.  Teahen could be a great #2 hitter.  DeJesus is a very good #1 guy.  When he gets on base, he scores, and the Royals win.  After that?  Not so much.  Gathright, who knows?  Pena?  Well, the Twins have won with poor hitting, strong fielding MIs for years.  I love Grudz, and if he keeps doing what he's doing for the next three years, then he's certainly part of a solution rather than a problem.  As someone pointed out, even with a poor BA, Buck is an above-average catcher based simply on his power.  First base is certainly a question mark.  Shealy?  Gload?  Huber?  Someone else?  What's important to remember is that barring some shocking development from a minor league bat or two, there is not an impact bat in the system until you get down to a certain 18-year old in Idaho.  Also, teams don't trade impact bat-type prospects for the types of middling veterans that the Royals have--Sanders, Brown, Gload, et al.  So what you see is what you get.  Lubanski's the type of guy who could be something.  Maier's VERY fringey.  I'm not holding my breath on Stodolka.  The point:  This is it.

Here's the thing, offensively:  The Royals need Butler and Gordon to be stars.  If they turn into anything less than that, this offense will never be better than average.  If they become stars, this can be a very good, top-5 type offense.

Pitching

I suppose that most Royals fans feel better about the club's pitching than they do about the hitting.  It makes sense.  Meche has been EXACTLY as expected.  He's probably not an ace, but I'd take him as a #2 starter on virtually any rotation in baseball (Padres, BoSox maybe Yanks excepted).  We may be witnessing Brian Bannister's best season, but going forward you could do much worse with him as a #3.  He makes his starts, keeps his team in the game, pitches deep.  He's a very solid pro.  The rest of the rotation is a toss-up.  (Disclaimer:  I own two jerseys.  A vintage '80 powder blue #5 and Zack Greinke's #23...)  Intelligent Royals fans can NOT expect both Greinke and Soria to be aces.  Maybe one of them will be.  Maybe they'll both only be decent.  Maybe neither of them will ever win 15 games with a sub-4.00 ERA.  Young pitchers are nearly impossible to project with confidence.  Best case scenario is that two of Greinke, Soria, Hochevar and Buckner become above-average ML starters and that the other two become bullpen weapons.  I'm positing this as best case not because I'm down on any of those guys in particular but because that's how it is with prospects.  Not one of those guys has ever been rated as highly as Andrew Miller of Detroit, or Philip Hughes in NY, or Homer Bailey in Cincinnati (with the possible exception of Greinke in 2003) and so to hope for any of those four to become a star is just that, hope.  Not that it couldn't happen, of course, just that it's not likely.  So Meche will be here for four more years.  Bannister, Greinke, Soria, Hochevar, De la Rosa, Hudson and Buckner are Royals property until 2011 at least (I believe??).  Injuries are always an issue with young arms, but this is the core pitching staff for the Royals going forward.  The Royals may pay for another mid-rotation guy in free agency, which makes eight options for the four spots.  That seems to me like enough.  

I'm not going to consider the bullpen here, because it's something that can be built on a season to season basis.  Good teams build good bullpens with average guys.  Guys like Riske, Gobble, Peralta, etc.  Maybe Hochevar becomes a closer.  Maybe Soria's cutter makes him the Rivera of the '10s.  Who knows?  I have faith that Moore can build and rebuild the bullpen every year just as his old boss in Atlanta does every year.

To conclude:

I guess this is just a long, multi-part question to the RR readers.  First, do you agree with me that the Royals we've been watching this year are the Royals of the future?  Second, given expected progression, is it enough?

My opinion is that it's a definite maybe.  Here's one cautiously optimistic scenario:  Gordon and Butler become stars.  Like consistent 300/400/500 types with one of them setting a new Royals single-season HR record and the other coming close.  Buck and Teahen hit 20 HRs.  Gathright steals 40 bases with a .350+ OBP.  DeJesus gets on enough to lead the league in Runs scored.  Greinke becomes what we've all seen he can be, a 3.50 ERA over 200 IP with a 4/1 K/BB ratio.  Soria becomes a top-tier closer.  Bannister settles in as a solid mid-rotation guy.  Meche photocopies his '07 peripherals for the life of his contract.  Two of Hochevar, Buckner, Hudson, De la Rosa and some FA PTBNL fill out the rotation league-averagely.  That team challenges for a playoff spot and can make noise in a short series.  That team wouldn't be favored to win a WS, but it could.

Finally, I just want to echo some other folks's comments that this season has been a blast to watch.  Enjoy it while it lasts, y'all, because pretty soon we're not going to be happy with a sub-.500 record.  I can't wait.