Dayton Moore goes Under the Radar
by bheikoop on Jan 5, 2008 3:46 PM EST
71 comments
One of my favorite happenings of baseball during the Hot Stove league are under the radar moves - a review of the minor Chin Hui Tsao signing.
Oftentimes I will hear of a move and think, "Now there was a steal," or something to that effect. Having this blog, I will be able to document moments when such instances occur and reflect on them after all is said and done--which may prove to be more painful then enjoyable and limit my credibility.
To avoid some of this pain, check out an interesting show with Michael Cera.
My first entry of 2008 will also be my first entry in what I hope is an interesting series, one that I can one day add to my resume in addition to the long list of successful video game franchises, fantasy leagues, etc., in an attempt at capturing a job in an MLB front office.
This is also my second entry that will involve a one Dayton Moore, whom I am going on record and officially naming the Most Underrated GM in Baseball.
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I can't agree with your conclusion
There are, of course, injury concerns. And even if he's no longer injured, after majors surgeries to his elbow and, most recently, his shoulder, will he be able to pitch at his earlier high level? There are too many pitchers better than him for him to crack the Royals bullpen unless there are multiple injuries:
Soria
Yabuta
Gobble
Mahay
Peralta
Bale
Nunez
Musser
De La Rosa
Davies
Braun
Even if Bale is in the rotation, I don't see Tsao making it into the Royals bullpen unless and until there are significant injuries.
by NYRoyal on Jan 5, 2008 3:53 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Tsao in 2007
In 2007 Tsao posted an FIP of 4.65, that was while he was returning from a major surgery. He is another year removed from that surgery and presumably, a year healthier.
In 2007, among relievers with 20 or more innings pitched the Royals owned four relievers (that are still on the roster) with a FIP below this mark. One of which was John Bale.
Outside of that, with the stuff Tsao possesses, not keeping him around in favor of a Davies, Braun or De La Rosa, would be a mistake. That is, unless it comes down to needing a long man.
by bheikoop on Jan 5, 2008 4:09 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Innings pitched and sample size
And I can't believe you are basing anything on his 2007 stats. He had 24 2/3 innings pitched. That is a horribly tiny sample size.
Soria, Yabuta, Mahay, Gobble, Peralta and Bale are all considerably better than Tsao, particularly when you can't even rely on Tsao to manage 20 innings pitched in a season (he's done that only once in the last 4 years).
And, I'd much rather give a look at guys like DLR and Davies in a bullpen role than waste innings on a pitcher who is not likely to have a significant future in the major leagues due to his major, frequent and recurring injury problems.
by NYRoyal on Jan 5, 2008 5:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Obviously I Whole Heartedly Disagree
Second, I'm not basing it on his 2007 stats. In fact, his 2007 stats are probably the low-end of what I would expect for a full season of Tsao. He has ridiculous stuff and was once considered a top 10 prospect. Only injuries have derailed that fact. Like Mark Prior, taking a risk on a guy like Tsao is much more beneficial then the 'sure thing' that Mahay or Bale will give you. That 'sure thing', to remind you, is about replacement level.
With that in mind, when you take a risk on a guy like Tsao, the worst that can happen is he flops and you replace him with a replacement level guy like Bale. The best that can happen is you have acquired an electric late inning reliever. Conversely, with Bale/Mahay, the best that you can expect is replacement level performance, while the worst is a guy who is a bullpen killer and is later replaced by a...replacement level player.
In conclusion, yes, Tsao is a risk. But hes what people call a "high reward" risk. When you couple high reward with low cost, that is how you build an organization. Guys like Bale and Mahay are interchangeable with other league average veterans. Furthermore, when you consider the track record of those two aforementioned pitchers, and the volatile nature of relief pitchers, we aren't really talking about 'sure things'. So if the cost is a win for the chance of what every major league team is looking for-electric young bullpen arms-I'd say you take that every time. The veteran replacement level guy is a dime a dozen and letting them go won't cost you anything in the long run.
by bheikoop on Jan 5, 2008 6:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Tsao is a marginal major leaguer, at best
Second, after two major surgeries, does Tsao still have great stuff? His most recent surgery was for a torn rotator cuff. It is not uncommon for players to lose some mph off their fastball after that. Is it reasonable for us to assume that he's still the very talented pitcher he was 4 or 5 years ago?
Conversely, with Bale/Mahay, the best that you can expect is replacement level performance
Have you actually looked at Mahay's stats? He's been a hell of a lot better than replacement level for the past several years.
I have no problem with the minimal risk of giving Tsao a minor league contract. If he jumps in a time machine and magically shows us that he's the same pitcher now he was 5 years ago, then I'm happy to have him pitch for us. Expecting that result doesn't make much sense. You know, there's a reason that no major league GM offered him a guaranteed contract for even league minimum.
He's a good, low-risk signing, but we shouldn't expect anything from him.
Guys like Bale and Mahay are interchangeable with other league average veterans.
So you first said Mahay was at replacement level, now you say he's league average. You do understand that league average is much better than replacement level, don't you? But, of course, Mahay is better than league average. You might want to look into what league average is. A league average ERA+ is 100. Mahay's most recent ERA+ have been 173, 117, 68, 198 and 158. That is one bad season and 4 way above average seasons.
Mahay isn't a dime-a-dozen replacement level guy. He's also considerably better than Tsao. It isn't even particularly close.
by NYRoyal on Jan 5, 2008 7:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Replying...
Was Bale not out of baseball for 3 years prior to last season?
Tsao's Track Record
First, who is to say that Tsao can only pitch 20 innings?
Second, check out his strikeout rate this year. Check out what he did prior to 're-injuring' himself this season. Does that look like the numbers (although limited) of a pitcher who has lost considerable stuff?
Third, I never said he would slide right into being the pitcher he was 4 or 5 years ago. Never hinted at it. What I did say, is that he has a much better chance at being an electric and dependable reliever then a Bale or Mahay. Both of whom are about replacement level.
Mahay as a hell of a lot better then replacement
WARP 3 career total - 12.4
WARP 3 3 year average - 1.4
I would say, that is slightly above league average. Not enough to make a difference in the big picture. Lets also consider that Mahay had the best season of his career. Regression towards the mean anyone?
League Average v. Replacement Level
That was my typ-o, sorry. Hes replacement level. Although, for a middle reliever, the deviation between replacement and league average is not too different.
ERA+
Is essentially a glorified ERA stat, thus, it has more flaws then it has benefits. Mahay has a nice career NRA, but he is not going to fool anybody for as a long term option out of the pen, as Tsao has the ability to be.
Lets put it this way, the Royals are not in a win now mode. In fact, they are probably not even in a win-soon mode. So would you prefer to have a 37 year old with no potential, and who sits at replacement level, or a 27 year old with loads of potential, and who sits at replacement level? I would hope that you would be looking 3-5 years down the road v. a year or two.
by bheikoop on Jan 5, 2008 7:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Reply
He was pitching very well in Japan, which is at about the AA-AAA level. So first, he was pitching while Tsao, for the most part, was not. Second, Bale threw more innings in 2007 than Tsao has in the last 3 years.
First, who is to say that Tsao can only pitch 20 innings?
One should look at past performance when predicting future results. Actually, I would predict fewer than 20 ip because he's only topped 11 ip once in the last four years. Why should we expect him to be healthy and be able to pitch significant innings when he hasn't been able to do that for the past 4 years?
Second, check out his strikeout rate this year.
First, that was a statistically insignificant sample size. Second, I don't care what a pitcher's strikeout rate is if he isn't likely to manage 20 ip.
Does that look like the numbers (although limited) of a pitcher who has lost considerable stuff?
I don't know. The sample size isn't large enough to tell anyone anthing. And if he does have his stuff back, how long would he be able to maintain it. After pitching so few innings each season, does he have the strength and stamina to maintain that stuff over the course of a full season? Lots of unknowns for this guy.
Mahay as a hell of a lot better then replacement
WARP 3 career total - 12.4
WARP 3 3 year average - 1.4
I would say, that is slightly above league average.
Again, you are using "replacement level" and "league average" interchangably. Do you understand that these are very, very different concepts. "Replacement level" is basically a marginal major leaguer. It is the kind of player you could pull up from the minors as a quick, easy, cheap replacement. "League average" is an average player at a position in the major leagues. So, a "league average" player is much, much better than a "replacement level" player. Mahay is clearly better than league average. Because of their total innings pitched, few non-closer relievers have a high WARP. By the way, what is Tsao's WARP?
Lets also consider that Mahay had the best season of his career.
It was very much like his 2003 and 2004 seasons. And his career numbers are quite good as well.
League Average v. Replacement Level
That was my typ-o, sorry. Hes replacement level. Although, for a middle reliever, the deviation between replacement and league average is not too different.
Clearly you still don't get it. Mahay is not a replacement level pitcher. He's better than replacement level. Tsao is and has been below replacement level.
Mahay has a nice career NRA, but he is not going to fool anybody for as a long term option out of the pen, as Tsao has the ability to be.
Mahay has been succeeding as a major league pitcher for a long time, including in recent seasons. Is that all luck that is suddenly going to change? Mahay has a track record of success. Tsao has a track record of being too injured to pitch.
Lets put it this way, the Royals are not in a win now mode. In fact, they are probably not even in a win-soon mode. So would you prefer to have a 37 year old with no potential, and who sits at replacement level, or a 27 year old with loads of potential, and who sits at replacement level? I would hope that you would be looking 3-5 years down the road v. a year or two.
I would rather have a genuinely good pitcher for two years (Mahay) than a pitcher who isn't likely to pitch a complete season (Tsao). If track record means anything, then Tsao is likely to be out of baseball 3 years from how after more injuries and surgeries. There is absolutely no reason to think he'll be able to keep his elbow or shoulder together. But, I hope he does. If so, he can develop in the minors while Mahay helps the Royals win more games in 2008 and 2009.
Again, there's a reason that no major league team offered Tsao even a minimal major league deal, while multiple teams were bidding on Mahay. Mahay is a good pitcher and has been for years. Tsao was once a well thought of prospect who has failed due to multiple injuries. Most prospects fail. Do you really think you see something that every other major league front office has missed?
by NYRoyal on Jan 5, 2008 9:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Again - Please be a Little More Optimistic
- Bale pitched more innings then Tsao for x amount of years - WHO CARES! Mike Maroth has also threw more innings then a Chris Carpenter or Pedro Martinez last year. If you were running an organization that had no chance at winning in 08, who would you sign? Maroth, Carpenter or Martinez?
- Many unknowns - Again, WHO CARES! I admit, I did not see him pitch in every one of his outings in 2007, so I am in fact relying on the numbers. Yes, as I admitted the numbers are in limited action, but we can use them to tell a story. Is it going to be 100% flawless? No, but even 75ip would leave room for question.
- Replacement v. League Average - WHO CARES! Stop nit-picking at someones terms. If you disagree with someones terminology, fine. The fact is, Mahay is 'replacement level'. Yes that is superior to league average, but a team of 'replacement level' players-according to Baseball Prospectus-would win no more then 35 games in a season. I ascertain that a term of league average players could squeak out 35 wins as well. Also, look at the numbers-you know, the real facts, not a bloggers opinion-Mahay is have a value of 1.3 over replacement the last few years. 1.3 is pretty inconsequential, especially to a team that is 2-4 years from competing.
- Preferences - WHO CARES! This goes back to my first point and something I went into great detail about earlier. For a team with little on the line, why would you run a replacement level player out there who isn't going to have any part in the teams future success, then a player whom have incredible potential. Is he going to be healthy enough to throw 80 innings out of the pen, maybe to probably not, but what if? Thats the big factor here. Everyone knows what Mahay and Bale are going to give-replacement level pitching. A guy like Tsao, if he can manage to get healthy could be one of the top 30 or 40 bullpen arms in the majors. Oh, and hes young enough to believe that his return could happen. Whereas Mahay and Bale are old enough to believe it is only a matter of time before they are completely out of things.
by bheikoop on Jan 6, 2008 11:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Just trying to be realistic
Quite simply, Bale can be counted on to help the Royals. Tsao's track record over 4 major league seasons (not just one season) is that he can't manage to be healthy enough to even pitch half a season.
If you were running an organization that had no chance at winning in 08, who would you sign? Maroth, Carpenter or Martinez?
There are multiple stages of rebuilding. The Royals are not at the beginning stage where you don't care at all about how many games you win and all you care about is development. The Royals are in a later stage of rebuilding where you want to balance development and using some roster spots for "auditions" with increasing the win total so that the team improves and the fan base grows. So, for this team at this time, what I would do is sign some good, reliable relievers (like Mahay) and give ultra-iffy marginal major leaguers like Tsao a minor league contract. If he appears to be entirely healthy and pitching very well throughout spring training, he might crack the last spot in the bullpen. But, I think the safest bet is for him to pitch in Omaha until injuries open up a spot in the bullpen for him...until injury ends his season...again.
Many unknowns - Again, WHO CARES! I admit, I did not see him pitch in every one of his outings in 2007, so I am in fact relying on the numbers. Yes, as I admitted the numbers are in limited action, but we can use them to tell a story. Is it going to be 100% flawless? No, but even 75ip would leave room for question.
I'll make it simple. You are making an argument based on his stats and the sample size is insufficient to draw any meaningful conclusions. He had 24.2 ip last season. Such data is inherently flawed and unreliable. Unfortunately, he doesn't have many more career innings for us to evaluate him from either.
Replacement v. League Average - WHO CARES! Stop nit-picking at someones terms.
Sorry, but those are the terms you used, and words have meanings. Your argument was that we might as well use Tsao who has all of this (very questionable) upside potential because guys like Mahay or merely "replacement level" and "league average." In actuality, he's better than both.
The fact is, Mahay is 'replacement level'. Yes that is superior to league average
Siiiiiiiigh. No, no, no. I explained this to you before. "League average" is superior to "replacement level." If you're going to use these terms, you should know what they mean. To put it very simply, "replacement level" is a marginal major leaguer at best; someone you could pull up from AAA. "League average" is an average major leaguer at a position. He's in the middle of the pack, while a replacement level player would be near the bottom of the pack.
a team of 'replacement level' players-according to Baseball Prospectus-would win no more then 35 games in a season. I ascertain that a term of league average players could squeak out 35 wins as well.
You ascertain incorrectly. As league average players are much better than replacement level players, a team of league average players would win much more than 35 games.
Also, look at the numbers-you know, the real facts, not a bloggers opinion-Mahay is have a value of 1.3 over replacement the last few years. 1.3 is pretty inconsequential, especially to a team that is 2-4 years from competing.
I don't know if you've looked at the WARP of many setup men and other good non-closer relievers, but I suggest you do it. First, none of their WARP's are going to be very high because they just don't pitch many innings. Second, Mahay's WARP in 4 of the last 5 is going to be on the high end of non-closer relievers MLB-wide.
Everyone knows what Mahay and Bale are going to give-replacement level pitching.
In the words of a great movie, you keep using that term but I don't think you know what it means. Mahay is much better than Tsao and has been for years. Bale is more of a question mark. Tsao is all question mark. Let him prove himself in spring training and Omaha. If he shows that he can pitch well and has the durability to at least survive April, then he can come to KC if there is an open bullpen spot due to injury or poor performance.
This was indeed a good signing. It is low-risk and if healthy, Tsao could be good. But to say that he's better than Bale or Mahay is baseless. There's a reason that Bale and Mahay have guaranteed major league contracts and Tsao didn't get a major league contract offer from any team.
by NYRoyal on Jan 6, 2008 2:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re-Read My Posts
Apparently you are. Yes, Bale and Mahay have some value, I don't believe I ever doubted that. However, the value they hold to this team is negligible. Dayton Moore should be, and hopefully is, taking the route that the Marlins have taken during their existence. Load up with young high ceiling talent and let them play away. Guys like Bale and Mahay, whether they are league average or replacement level (a simple wording mistake that you can't get over) is not going to be the difference between this team winning the Central in 2008 or in 2011. Neither have much more potential then the 2.0 VORP that they will be fortunate to post respectively. Conversely, a guy such as Tsao could be a major piece for this team in 2008 as well as in 2011.
In reference to VORP/WARP, you only proved my point how little value pitchers like Mahay and Bale hold. Given that they are about replacement level, with a very limited ceiling, why waste the roster spot on them right now?
Also, "I don't know if you've looked at the WARP of many setup men and other good non-closer relievers, but I suggest you do it." is another example of a fallacy. Yes, the figure is going to be low, but 1.3 is exceptionally low! It is indicative of a pitcher who essentially threw in garbage innings.
Lets also keep in mind that I was simply showing a single statistic, I could go further if you like. Mahay ranked 137th overall in WXR. Bale, I was actually unable to find, meaning he probably logged a figure under 0.000. While WXR does take into account closers and those who have logged saves, let it be known that 2 of the top 5 were set up men with extremely limited action as a closer.
So, what can be expected from Mahay and Bale? Replacement Level production. You can debate that and argue it all you want, but the numbers don't lie. Please do not tell me I don't know what replacement level is. I may have made an error in suggesting it was the same as league average, but I am well aware of replacement level. Also, keep in mind the fact that replacement level varies per position and the win-loss total of a team made up of replacement level v. league average would be marginal, thus, who cares!
Lastly, how you can refer to this as a good signing when you are confident he will be injured and have little value to the Royals is beyond me. Stating that Tsao's minor league free agent contract status is reason to believe nobody has faith in him is laughable. Adding to the fact that Mahay and Bale's guaranteed contracts are some sort of evidence that executives are flawless and never make mistakes.
Sorry, but in this case, you are wrong. Mahay and Bale are replacement level relievers on a team that needs a long term player who has the potential to add 4 to 5 times what those two offer. That, is undebatable!
by bheikoop on Jan 6, 2008 3:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re-think your argument...really
Lastly, how you can refer to this as a good signing when you are confident he will be injured and have little value to the Royals is beyond me.
Because he signed a $250K minor league contract. Every team invests minimal money on some players in the hope that maybe they finally put something together. If he doesn't (and he probably won't), it's no big deal. He's certainly worth that minimal risk.
Stating that Tsao's minor league free agent contract status is reason to believe nobody has faith in him is laughable.
Stating that can evaluate talent better than every major league organization is laughable. So you're saying that you see how good Tsao is and every MLB GM screwed up is laughable.
Adding to the fact that Mahay and Bale's guaranteed contracts are some sort of evidence that executives are flawless and never make mistakes.
Of course individual GM's make mistakes...but all of them? All of them wasted money on their setup men and middle relievers when they could have had Tsao for league minimum, right? They all screwed up and some fan blogger sees the truth? Think about how silly that sounds for a minute.
Sorry, but in this case, you are wrong. Mahay and Bale are replacement level relievers on a team that needs a long term player who has the potential to add 4 to 5 times what those two offer. That, is undebatable!
The exclamation point really makes the argument. It is not only debatable, it's pretty silly. Your argument that Mahay has neglible value is, as you like to put it, laughable. Check out the WARP of other non-closer relievers. Do you think they all have neglible value? And why do you think Tsao has the potential to 4-5 times better. If he becomes an elite setup man, he still won't have a high WARP. It wouldn't be much more than Mahay's last year. By your WARP argument, he'd be another replacement level pitcher of negligible value.
I don't think you understand WARP as it relates to middle relievers. I think your whole argument needs some serious re-thinking and a good deal of research.
by NYRoyal on Jan 6, 2008 6:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
And
by NYRoyal on Jan 6, 2008 6:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Nomo v. Meche
I also think the Royals would have been better served waiting for the 2008 starting pitcher free agent class then signing Meche-whom BP projected to be worth only 2 wins a year better then replacement for the duration of his contract.
by bheikoop on Jan 6, 2008 7:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Wow...just wow
Meche can be counted on to be at least an average #3 starting pitcher for the remainder of his contract. The market price for an average #3 SP is already more than $11M per season. Given salary inflation, that price is going go up in the coming years. And if he's better than a #3, as he was in 2007, then he's not a bargain, he's an unbelievably wonderful deal.
Good lord, man. You really were joking, right?
by NYRoyal on Jan 6, 2008 7:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
#4 Actually
Again, like I said, if they got the guy that Meche was this year, great deal. If hes the guy he was for the majority of his career, okay deal. And again, if he is that guy, I save the money for guys like Santana or Sabathia.
by bheikoop on Jan 6, 2008 9:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Amazing
I get it. You think the way you build a winning team is to only acquire the greastest players and then some ultra-cheap signings who have a 0.1% chance of being great. That's a wonderful theory. With the Royals resources, that would mean that the Royals have 2-3 great players and a bunch of minor league free agents like Tsao and Nomo. That team wins maybe 45 games. I'll pass.
by NYRoyal on Jan 6, 2008 9:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Please Stop
When did I say, "Moore should sign Sabathia?" Answer-NEVER! I said that if Meche reverts back to a #4 caliber starter, the money would have been better saved for guys like Santana or Sabathia.
Trying to tell me stuff I already know
When did I say front offices don't have scouts? Did you know that Moore signed Meche with the thinking that he would be the next Chris Carpenter?
Like I said, right now it looks as if the Royals made the right move-don't give it a gold star just yet. I guarantee that every other organization is kicking themselves for not signing Meche.
As a side note, Bill James anticipates a 4.33 ERA in 2008. $11M on a #3/#4 starter to an organization like the Yankees or Red Sox is an okay spending, to a small market team like the Royals, its iffy. We'll see how he pitches in 2008 though.
Improvement at a young age?
SINCE WHEN! I'm not sure if you are the all knowing Royals fan here, but I'm not really impressed by what you have said.
Percentage of spending
So, you think that the team is better off overpaying for the Meche's of the world then the Santana's of the world? In your opinion the team is better off with two Meche's then one Santana? I'd say thats debatable, and prior to this season the debate would have been one sided.
To further this, I never once said that the team is better off with Santana and Tsao. Another example of you putting words in my mouth, thanks. What I said, was that the team has no need for guys like Mahay and Bale. Both of whom are at the ends of their careers and aren't much better then replacement level. I also suggested that if Meche reverts to his 4.80 form, the team is better off saving his $11M.
I wonder what song and dance you were singing when Meche was signed.
Oh, another thing, Moore apparently has a lot of spending money. According to Bob Dutton the Royals are looking to be in the mid teir of spending. Meaning they will probably be in the $75M+ area. Do you actually follow the Royals or baseball?
by bheikoop on Jan 6, 2008 10:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Okay, I'm sorry, but
by royaldaddy on Jan 6, 2008 10:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If Tsao has a good, injury-free spring
Soria
Yabuta
Gobble
Mahay
Peralta
While there might be a 7-man bullpen, the nature of the players on the bench tell me that there will only be a 6-man bullpen. The debate about whether Mahay should be in that bullpen is academic. Moore invested $8M on him over two years. He's in the bullpen. It's not like they can outright him to the minors; he'd never accept the assignment. Bale will also be in the bullpen if he's not in the rotation. But he's a decent bet to make the rotation. So, if Tsao has pitched at 100% with no pain or soreness and he's pitched well throughout spring training, he might be the guy for the last bullpen spot. We'll see what happens.
by NYRoyal on Jan 6, 2008 11:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Sorry...
Also, theres no denying that Tsao has a lot of work to do. Similar to the Royals. But lets be fair, what is the cost of going with Tsao over Mahay or Bale? At most, two wins? If in September Tsao got hurt and the Royals are two games from the playoffs, I was wrong-if not, this is inconsequential.
by bheikoop on Jan 7, 2008 12:28 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Rewards, risks, benefits and questions
Not the likely reward, the possible reward. While there are a range of possibilities, it is most likely that Bale and Mahay will perform better (more quality innings pitched) than Tsao.
But lets be fair, what is the cost of going with Tsao over Mahay or Bale? At most, two wins?
I assume that you think that the benefit of playing Tsao is his development into a good reliever. Why can't he do this development in Omaha where he wouldn't be costing the Royals those two wins?
Another question: if you want Tsao in the bullpen instead of Mahay or Bale, what do you propose we do with Mahay or Bale? If they are not on the major league pitching staff, they have to be outrighted to the minors. If that happens, neither Bale nor Mahay would accept such an assignment, making them free agents. Then they wouldn't be on the team anymore and the Royals would be on the hook for their entire contracts (and that is 2 yrs/$8M for Mahay). Is that what you really want?
by NYRoyal on Jan 7, 2008 12:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Who Cares!
"it is most likely that Bale and Mahay will perform better (more quality innings pitched) than Tsao."
WHO CARES! As I mentioned, with risk/reward, what are the Royals losing in not going with Mahay and Bale and instead going with a young guy like Tsao? 2-3 wins on the season? IF Bale and Mahay keep drinking out of the fountain of youth? Are you telling me 2-3 wins this season is going to make a major difference in the grand scheme of things with the Royals? And thats what you are missing out on. This team is not built to compete in 2008. And probably not in 2009 with their starting pitching. In 2010 Bale will be 35 and Mahay 39, no sensible executive would bank on them contributing then, so why waste the time on them now? Why not see what they have and go from there. If/When Tsao flops, hes out, you give the next blue chipper a shot. If/When he flops, you go to the next in line. Along the way you are finding arms that are capable of producing to the bullpen at a high level when this team will need it.
How have you missed that point?
Tsao in Omaha - He will not develop there the way he could in the majors. The kid has already shown that he is vastly superior to minor league hitters and needs training on how to get major leaguers out. Sending him to Omaha would not prove anything, except possibly show that he is healthy. The same could be concluded in the majors while giving him actual training.
In terms of 'what to do', I would look for a trade partner for Mahay, but to be fair, I wouldn't have 'wasted' $4M on him for 2008/09. Bale is presumably near league minimum, but he is fine as the #6 reliever.
by bheikoop on Jan 7, 2008 12:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I guess I don't get
by royaldaddy on Jan 7, 2008 12:55 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
3 Year Average
As for Bale and Mahay, the numbers -career and otherwise- show that they are no more then slightly above replacement level. For a team that is competing in 2008, sure, they are players you want at the end of your bullpen. For a team that is looking to compete in 2010, why waste your time, money and space on them?
I have said over and over, that as of today, the Meche signing looks fantastic. But that is today, there is still 80% of the contract remaining.
by bheikoop on Jan 7, 2008 12:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Now you're making a little sense
by royaldaddy on Jan 7, 2008 3:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ok
And I pointed out, in response to your point, that Sabathia is not a reasonable option in any scenario because of his price.
When did I say front offices don't have scouts?
I'm sure you know that front offices have scouts. I was pointing out that you don't evaluate a player by looking at his stats for his 25-27 yo seasons (which is what you pointed out). In addition to those stats, you have scouts look at him and see if you think he'll be better. I'm not saying Moore and his scouts saw him as developing into an ace. But I think they were of the opinion that he'd be better in ages 28-32 than he had been for ages 20-27. So far, they were right.
As a side note, Bill James anticipates a 4.33 ERA in 2008. $11M on a #3/#4 starter to an organization like the Yankees or Red Sox is an okay spending, to a small market team like the Royals, its iffy.
If Moore and his scouts are right, Meche is a #2-3 starter. The Royals had a $67M payroll in the first year of Meche's contract. It will likely be around that this year and with revenues increasing as they are, the payroll should be expected to increase. So, given Meche's likely performance, $11M makes sense for a #2-3 starter on a team with a $70-85M payroll.
So, you think that the team is better off overpaying for the Meche's of the world then the Santana's of the world?
First, Moore overbid his competitors for Meche, but he didn't overspend. Second, for $25M, the Royals could get Santana, a great ace, or a good #2-3 (Meche - $11M) and a legitimate #2 SP ($14M). For a team with limited resources, would you rather spend $25M on one ace or on a #2 and a #2-3 starting pitcher? I think the answer is pretty obvious.
To further this, I never once said that the team is better off with Santana and Tsao. Another example of you putting words in my mouth, thanks.
Actually, it was the logical extension of your arguments. Deal with it.
I wonder what song and dance you were singing when Meche was signed.
For the record, I was saying that the contract would eventually become a bargain given the nature of baseball's inflationary economics. I was also saying that I hope Moore's scouts did a good job of finding a pitcher who would improve on his past track record. Thankfully, they did.
Oh, another thing, Moore apparently has a lot of spending money. According to Bob Dutton the Royals are looking to be in the mid teir of spending. Meaning they will probably be in the $75M+ area. Do you actually follow the Royals or baseball?
Believe me, your arrogance and insults are not well placed. I'm fairly certain that I know more about the Royals payroll than you do. For instance, the Royals currently have 30 players who are due guaranteed major league contracts for 2008 worth approximately $59.9M (including arbitration estimates). Last year, the Royals payroll was a little over $67M (if you want the detailed breakdown, I can e-mail you my spreadsheet). Earlier this offseason, Glass said that this year's payroll would be at approximately the same level of the 2007 payroll. Given the increased gate revenue and the new TV and radio deals as well as huge MLB profit sharing and luxury tax funds the Royals are receiving, I am confident the payroll can and will get much bigger. I actually think Glass is willing to take next year's payroll up to $80M. But even with that, signing Santana or Sabathia doesn't make sense for the Royals.
Hey man, no need to get angry. We can disagree. I just like sharing my opinions freely, particularly when there's a good debate. To paraphrase a classic song, there ain't no good fan, there ain't no bad fan, there's only you and me and we just disagree. :)
by NYRoyal on Jan 6, 2008 11:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm Sorry...
Isn't the negative about Tsao that he is an injury concern? If Moore and his scouts looked beyond one season of Meche, I don't see how they justified offering him a 5 year contract!
"For the record, I was saying that the contract would eventually become a bargain given the nature of baseball's inflationary economics. I was also saying that I hope Moore's scouts did a good job of finding a pitcher who would improve on his past track record. Thankfully, they did."
A #4 being paid $11M isn't a bargain. After year one, the contract has been a bargain, there is still 80% left on the contract.
Its funny that you attacked me for looking at a small sample size yet you are annoiting Meche to be a pitcher with a sub 4 ERA for the next 4 seasons-oh, and to stay healthy.
In any event, I'm alone on this one. Somehow people here think that Mahay is more then a replaceable player, we'll see. I wouldn't bet on a 37 year old coming off of a career year, apparently you would.
by bheikoop on Jan 7, 2008 12:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Reply
That, and that his major league innings are so few that we really don't know if he would realize the potential everyone thought he had if he is able to manage a full season of pitching.
If Moore and his scouts looked beyond one season of Meche, I don't see how they justified offering him a 5 year contract!
Because no front office looks only at stats. His stat line was that of a #3-4 starter. But he was young and still developing. The scouts looked at his tools and skills and saw a pitcher who they thought was still developing and thus would perform better in the future than he had in the past. That often happens with young players, right? So far, they have been right.
A #4 being paid $11M isn't a bargain.
He used to be a #4. It doesn't look like he is anymore.
Its funny that you attacked me for looking at a small sample size yet you are annoiting Meche to be a pitcher with a sub 4 ERA for the next 4 seasons-oh, and to stay healthy.
Did I ever state or imply that Meche would continue to be a "sub 4 ERA" pitcher? Is that the logical extension of any argument I've made? No, that is silly hyperbole. I said he's at least a solid #3. I have frequently described him as "#2-3 starter." That is not a sub-4 ERA. And I am "annointing him" as a #2-3 starter based on his entire career, taking into account his age and the nature of the developmental curve. You think Tsao can improve because he's still young at 27. It was reasonable to expect Meche to improve...and he did.
In any event, I'm alone on this one.
There's a reason for that.
by NYRoyal on Jan 7, 2008 1:17 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Sample Size
Tsao, 2007: 24.2 IP
216 IP: Much, much greater than 24.2 IP
You still don't seem to have a grasp on the definitions of replacement-level and league-average players. A replacement-level player is one whose performance can be matched by some AAA scrub. A league-average player is one whose performance is better than half of his peers. Mahay is above average, and therefore--by definition--much, much better than replacement level.
How many wins will result from the fact that he is well above replacement level? I have no idea. But it's incorrect to say that's all he is.
by Rowyal on Jan 7, 2008 1:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Im Sorry
And I know what replacement level is, I just keep messing up my wording.
In terms of Mahay, his 3 year average in WARP was 1.3 or 1.4 - its up there somewhere. League average would be 0. So he provided an extra win over a league average pitcher. As I mentioned, over and over and over and over and over again, Mahay is slightly above league average. As my point has clearly been stated, Mahay is not going to win the Royals any championships and will not be apart of this team when they are ready to contend. Thus, the Royals are essentially pissing away $8M for a roster eater.
by bheikoop on Jan 7, 2008 12:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Good Lyric Quote
http://www.mikefinnigan.net/
by philofthenorth on Jan 7, 2008 12:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Other Non-Closing Relievers With 'Stuff'
Betancourt - 4.7
Bell - 6.0
Heilman - 4.3
Lyon - 3.9
Shields - 3.1
Okajima - 3.8
Broxton - 4.1
Janssen - 3.1
Those were just pitchers I searched for off the top of my head. At age 36, Mahay posted the highest WARP of his career, presumably not a repeatable task-which is irrelevant.
Similarly, at age 33 Bale posted the highest WARP of his career, and even then wasn't much better then replacement level. However, it is players such as these that have 'experts' convinced that a bullpen is the final thing for a winning team to put together. Consider too how volatile a bullpen is.
With that in mind, if Tsao became an elite set up man, he could post a 6 or so in WARP3 and be 4.5 times superior to Mahay's 3 year average.
Overall, the Royals have no need for guys like Bale and Mahay right now, and as I have said over and over, they are better off plugging Tsao in there and seeing what they can get out of him. After all, he is entering his prime and if he can get healthy is an arm that would be of much superior value then Mahay or Bale. If not, its not a big loss.
Question, why are you comparing the WARP of a player who has little major league experience to that of players who are well passed their prime? Would you use this same thinking with Alex Gordon? Have him in the minors and bring in a Brandon Inge? I mean, Inge has collected a higher career WARP then Gordon and is getting paid more, so he must be better, right?
Also, when did I state that all the executives screwed up? When did I state that I was right and they were wrong? Answer, not once. What I did say is that Moore made an under the radar move which is going to lead the other 29 executives to kick themselves in the butt in July when they could have had Tsao for essentially nothing.
But lets go further. Did every executive not have a chance at Johan Santana? What about David Ortiz? Josh Hamilton? With that in mind, annually, executives make decisions that at the time are widely agreed upon, however down the road, realize they made a major mistake. I see this as one of those. You don't because you believe a major league ballclub should build around mid 30s relievers whom are slightly above replacement level.
And finally, if Tsao, as you have stated, is going to get injured and essentially be worthless, would that $250k not been better saved for the draft or another signing? Please read my comments more carefully and do not put words in my mouth.
by bheikoop on Jan 6, 2008 6:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yet another reply
Question, why are you comparing the WARP of a player who has little major league experience to that of players who are well passed their prime? Would you use this same thinking with Alex Gordon? Have him in the minors and bring in a Brandon Inge? I mean, Inge has collected a higher career WARP then Gordon and is getting paid more, so he must be better, right?
When evaluating a player, you have to include in your analysis his injury history and liklihood of avoiding injury in the future. You can't just look at his stuff and a statistically insignificant stat line. Gordon has no injury history. Tsao has been injured in every year of his major league career. That's why he's never pitched more than 25 innings in a season and only more than 11 inning in one season. He's had major injuries and surgeries to the elbow and shoulder of his throwing shoulder. This significant injury history should not be ignored. MLB GM's certainly took it into account.
Also, when did I state that all the executives screwed up? When did I state that I was right and they were wrong? Answer, not once.
You're claiming that Tsao has more value than guys like Bale and Mahay. GM's made guaranteed contract offers to many pitchers this offseason like Bale and Mahay. Not one single GM offered Tsao a guaranteed contract for even league minimum. So, apparently you think they all screwed up.
Did every executive not have a chance at Johan Santana? What about David Ortiz? Josh Hamilton?
No, Santan and Hamilton were Rule 5 draftees. Ortiz was a waiver claim. Not every GM had a chance to acquire them. Every GM had a chance to easily pick up Tsao with guaranteed contract for league minimum. Did they all screw up, while you see the truth about Tsao that they don't? Please.
And finally, if Tsao, as you have stated, is going to get injured and essentially be worthless, would that $250k not been better saved for the draft or another signing?
If there were zero chance that he could be good, then the $250K was wasted. I think the chance is better than that. His talent is worth the small investment the Royals made. What I think is most likely to happen is that he goes to Omaha after spring training and then comes up to KC when a pitcher or two gets injured. Then Tsao will come up to KC and pitch 10-20 innings before getting injured and going on the DL for the remainder of the season (this is how every season of his career has gone). It will be nice to have his good 10-20 innings and that will make the investment worthwhile.
by NYRoyal on Jan 6, 2008 7:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Wow..just wow
I do like the Tsao signing, but only because of what it is..a depth signing. He MIGHT be fighting for the last spot in the pen, but would have to jump over 3-4 guys that are already on the roster, younger, and have more upside then Tsao. Heck it might be upwards of 6 guys depending on injuries and how the starting rotation shakes out. It's not going to happen. To say that Tsao should be on the team over Mahay and Bale is just plain ludicrous. Tsao is a former prospect that can't stay healthy.
by Stook on Jan 7, 2008 12:00 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
"Tsao is a former prospect..."
I'd say with youth on his side, theres no harm in giving him a chance. As I was mentioning, over and over, is that Mahay and Bale have no chance in contributing to this team when the team should be competitive 3+ years.
And that is the point I have been making. While Tsao is a risk and hes far from a guarantee to be anything more then an overpaid doctor's patient, he does have the upside of youth. So you give him a real shot this year, he succeeds, you keep him around and have a nice chip for when it matters. In Bale and Mahay, while they are safer bets, it isn't as if they offer what isn't readily available-replacement level.
That said, I don't think it is all that ludicrous to have Tsao in the bullpen ahead of Mahay, Bale, etc. Obviously, he will have to earn it and be healthy.
I just don't understand the luster behind a 33 and a 37 year old for this team. For the Tigers, White Sox or Angels, maybe. But I think the Indians have shown what bringing in old relievers adds.
by bheikoop on Jan 7, 2008 12:47 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
At Worst
At best Moore thinks can compete next year and is gearing up for it. I can live with either possibility.
by philofthenorth on Jan 7, 2008 12:55 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
What should we do?
There's no harm in giving him a minor league deal and a chance to play in Omaha. If you put him on the major league roster, someone has to come off the roster. If that someone is Bale or Mahay, then they have to be traded, waived, released or outrighted to the minors. If either is outrighted, they have the right to refuse the assignment and become a free agent. In that case, the Royals are on the hook for their entire contract. So, the Royals would lose the player, owe him his entire contract and then we'd have to rely on Tsao pitching a full season. If/when he gets injured, then the Royals wouldn't have that pitcher (Bale or Mahay) to replace him. Is that what you want?
I just don't understand the luster behind a 33 and a 37 year old for this team.
They are good and reliable and they help the team this year. Pitchers like them are easy to find every year. If Bale is not re-signed, we can easily replace him with a similar pitcher. The same is true of Mahay after 2009. So it's not like we desperately need Tsao to develop into a good reliever. We have good relievers in Mahay, Bale and others. And when they are gone, the FA market will provide dozens of options to replace them.
by NYRoyal on Jan 7, 2008 1:23 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Okay...Last Comment...
If you want to talk further, email me (4heikoob@dyc.edu). I have messenger and such and we can debate this further.
What is the harm in sending Tsao to triple A?
Plenty. What does he have to prove at triple A? Outside of keeping the ball in the park -which was presumably more of a matter of where he was pitching rather then the way he was pitching- what could he show you and everyone else that would make him worthy of being called up to the majors? Could he better his 10.53 career K/9? Sure he could prove he is healthy, but couldn't he do that in the majors?
Relying on Tsao
You are acting as if the 5th or 6th man in the Royals bullpen is going to make or break them. If the 5th or 6th man in any teams bullpen is responsible for that team not making the playoffs, I would personally be shocked. So if/when Tsao gets hurt, you replace him with a pitcher marginally worse then the 1 win that Mahay or Bale would have provided you with.
The Future
The Royals do have some relievers who performed well in 2007, all of which were well above expectations, which sometimes does occur. I haven't looked at the numbers close enough to see how legitimate the numbers are, but that is irrelevant.
What is relevant is that finding an electric arm like Tsao is nearly impossible on the free agent market, unless you want to hand out an Eric Gagne or Francisco Cordero type deal. As mentioned, Bale and Mahay are about replacement level, so why allow them to take up a spot on the roster? Because you are paying them? Is that really a reason? Sure, they have posted nice numbers here and there, but they aren't going to provide anything to this club when the club is going to need it.
And thats been my point all along. You actually helped prove it further with "And when they are gone, the FA market will provide dozens of options to replace them." Mahay and Bale are a dime a dozen type pitcher. They are #6 and #7 relievers on 25 out of 30 major league bullpens. A guy like Tsao, who I think has R. Betancourt upside, is nearly impossible to either pry from a team or get on free agenecy. Moore lucked out that he got hurt this season, but even you have to admit, Tsao is a healthy season away from being one of the most highly sought after relievers. Much of this is hypothetical, but for a team like the Royals, this is the type of stab in the dark they should be making. So that when they are competing in 2010 the end of their bullpen has guys like Betancourt instead of Bale.
by bheikoop on Jan 7, 2008 12:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Thank you...
by MileHighKCfan on Jan 7, 2008 1:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Where are they now?
On your blog you said Tsao would be the Royals 3-4 arm in the bullpen. Now you are saying 6-7. Which is it?
I disagree with NYRoyal that Mahay and Bale are easily replacable through FA, but Tsao is. He's a AAAA player just trying to hang one for one last chance to make it. Maybe it was luck that made him a AAAA player, but for whatever reason that's what he is. He's a dime a dozen and every now and then you find a diamond in the pile of rocks. Praying for a miracle is not going to make it so. He has to prove he is healthy and get a little lucky to make it back to the majors.
Finally based on your logic we should be giving Matt Wright and Ben Hendricson (sorry for the spelling) a spot in the rotation because at one point they were considered prospects and we aren't going to compete.
by Stook on Jan 7, 2008 1:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Huh?
I don't understand what you are saying here.
by MileHighKCfan on Jan 7, 2008 1:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Umm..
by Stook on Jan 7, 2008 5:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
My point there was...
by NYRoyal on Jan 7, 2008 8:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ah
by Stook on Jan 7, 2008 9:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I try
But seriously... The easiest part of a baseball club to build is the bullpen. There are good, reasonably priced relievers on the market every year. In addition, there are usually AAA pitchers will be good relievers for a team as well. The Royals are filled with good relievers: FA acquisitions (Yabuta, Mahay, Bale), young cheap players currently under contract (Soria, Gobble, Peralta), minor league prospects (Nunez, Musser, Braun)and some failed starters who could become decent/good relievers (De La Rosa, Davies). So there isn't a great need for us to risk anything to maximize the development of someone like Tsao.
by NYRoyal on Jan 7, 2008 9:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
This Is Too
by philofthenorth on Jan 8, 2008 12:46 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
crazy!
Soria 4ever!
by doublestix on Jan 8, 2008 1:12 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Long reply
by NYRoyal on Jan 8, 2008 2:29 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
it's as if this thread was
by marbotty on Jan 9, 2008 5:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Hendrickson and Wright
Hendrickson and Wright were always only 'alright'.
Hendrickson managed to get his K/IP up to 1.00 once in his minor league career. Couple that with a mediocre walk rate-albeit one that showed incredible improvement-and you have what he gave you, a cup of coffee major leaguer.
Wright was slightly better as his career K/IP hovered around 1.00. However, allowed almost 1.4 base runners per inning at the minor league level is not going to get anyone rushing to give him a chance to become a major leaguer. Consider that at age 25 he has yet to throw an inning of major league ball.
Conversely, Tsao dazzled in the minor leagues. He was at one time so great, that he was rated as a top 10 prospect in baseball. Tsao consistently racked up strikeouts averaging an excellent K/IP ratio coupled with incredible control! His minor league hit rate was also nearly a full hit per 9 fewer then both Wright and Hendrickson.
Also, lets consider the difference between the end of the bullpen and the end of the rotation. At the end of the bullpen, racking up a Win over replacement is good enough.
So my 'logic' says, rather then wasting innings on players who have no role on the team beyond 2009, give a shot to a guy like Tsao. If he works out, you are golden, if not, you swap him out for a replacement level player and you might lose one win on the season.
Lastly, my quote was "I anticipate Tsao to slot in as the Royals 3rd or 4th bullpen arm". Consider that there are 162 games in a season and that the roles of relievers change frequently. That being said, I still believe that Tsao will be the 3rd or 4th reliever in KC. Maybe not on opening day, maybe not by the all star break, but, there will be a time-providing he is healthy and given the opportunity-where he will be pitching in the 7th inning of a 'save situation'(collecting a hold, so to speak).
by bheikoop on Jan 7, 2008 3:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I didn't say anything
As far as Tsao..this is a guy that has pitched 88 total major and minor league innings since 1/1/2004. 88. Check me on this, but his combined ERA over that time is roughly 4.5, has less than a K an inning, and given up a hit an inning. That is far from a dominate pitcher the last 4 seasons even if the sample size is small. The last time this guy was worth a crap was 2003. Hey..I'm all for getting in a time machine and going back to the magical year of 2003. That was a pretty good year to be a Royal fan.
Like I say below..if this guy sees KC that's probably a very bad sign for the Royals team. It would probably mean that 6 of the 10 guys ahead of him went down do to ineffectiveness or injury. I really hope that isn't the case.
by Stook on Jan 7, 2008 6:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Send him to AAA
by doublestix on Jan 5, 2008 5:46 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Call up...
However, I imagine a guy like Mahay would be much easier to call up, given his age and lack of incredible stuff.
by bheikoop on Jan 5, 2008 6:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
uh no
by doublestix on Jan 5, 2008 6:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It Does Depend
Although because he only has 4 seasons of service time, this may be different, I'll have to do some more research on this.
by bheikoop on Jan 5, 2008 6:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Minor league deal
by NYRoyal on Jan 5, 2008 7:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
well
by doublestix on Jan 5, 2008 8:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Tsao
by Stook on Jan 6, 2008 1:36 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Hi bheikoop and welcome to the site.
I read your article and agree with you that Tsao could make an impact next year if he stays healthy. I don't see a lot of middle ground with him. Either he will be an above average bullpen arm or he will be hurt. I do not see him pitching long at Omaha. If he is healthy he will be with the Royals. They guy doesn't need to develop any further, he just needs to stay healthy. Even if the Royals only get a few dozen innings out of him he will well be worth the money and roster space.
Anyway, Tsao is probably not the most interesting member of the roster to speculate about because the whole matter rests on something none of us can predict - his health. Probably more interesting to talk about are your views of Yabuta, Mahay, Nunez, Musser and Braun. What do you see these guys accomplishing in the pen next year?
by James Quinn on Jan 6, 2008 10:54 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
HeyJQ
I suppose you are right in that Tsao will not make or break the Royals season. My perspective for the article was on a league wide basis. That is, I was looking at this deal as one that was much better then the hype it received and one that people look back at the following offseason and say, 'wow, a minor league deal???'
by bheikoop on Jan 6, 2008 11:43 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Just a question
by MileHighKCfan on Jan 7, 2008 12:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Stairs
by bheikoop on Jan 7, 2008 1:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You Must Miss
by philofthenorth on Jan 7, 2008 2:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Actually
Living near to the border allows me to check out triple A ball though.
by bheikoop on Jan 7, 2008 3:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Prediction time
My prediction: 0
(I think there is a small chance that it will be something like 10 innings, but given his injury likelihood, I'll stick with 0)
by NYRoyal on Jan 7, 2008 4:21 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Come on, bheikoop
by NYRoyal on Jan 7, 2008 8:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Two
by fats on Jan 8, 2008 10:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Have I completely missed something?
It seems that a zero-risk move by signing Tsao has angered more people than MacDougal for Lumsden (who stunk in AAA last year) or Dotel for Davies (who stunk in both Atlanta and KC)!
The Royals have nothing to lose on Tsao. If he doesn't get the job done, he's in Omaha or out of the system. He wasn't signed to a big-dollar contract nor did he cost them anything in trade.
by jbrocato on Jan 8, 2008 7:44 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I think you need to re-read
What sparked the debate is the argument that Tsao is better than Mahay and Bale and that Tsao should be in the bullpen while Mahay or Bale is traded or released. That would kick up the risk part of the risk-benefit analysis significantly. Signing Tsao to a minor league deal makes sense. Making further moves which makes the Royals actually rely on him at the expense of other pitchers does not make sense.
by NYRoyal on Jan 8, 2008 2:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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