OT: Rany on Fivethirtyeight.com

Rany has written another guest column at fivethirtyeight, which is run by BP's own Nate Silver. He muses on the possibility of Bin Laden acting as another October surprise (as he was, of sorts, in 2004).

Worth a read. You may have to scroll down a bit to get to the post with Rany's column.

about 1 year ago DarthYoshi 14 comments 0 recs |

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I love fivethirtyeight.com

It isn’t just the synergy between baseball statistical analysis and electoral statistical analysis, but I like that part too. 538 does a great job of pulling together all of the polls, crunching the numbers and coming up with sound projections.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Oct 10, 2008 3:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Isn't this something Rany posted a long time ago?

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Oct 10, 2008 3:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I also like 538

Although I think they skew a bit towards Obama (which I don’t mind). At least they’re methodology is transparent though.

I think he is overstating the 2004 “October surprise” though. Bush was starting to distance himself from Kerry before the OBL tapes were released. If anything, Kerry had closed the gap by election day.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Oct 10, 2008 3:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Silver openly admits that he’s an Obama supporter, but I think analysis and number crunching is unbiased and sound.

And I think the only “October surprise” that OBL could do which could impact this election is a terrorist attack inside the U.S. or something really big against an American target abroad. Another taped message against McCain might give him a point in the national tracking polls, but that wouldn’t make much of a difference, given Obama’s significant lead in the popular vote and really big lead electorally.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Oct 10, 2008 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

His number crunching is unbiased

But he kinda cherry picks good news for Obama. Not that there is much bad news these days, but he is a bit selective as to what he writes about.

I guess I just feel a bit burned reading a lot of Ruy Teixeira in 2004 when he kept selecting data to tell us John Kerry was really winning, even though the polls didn’t say so! I think things are really looking good for Obama, but Nate tends to play up the good news for Barack, and downplay any good news or polls for McCain.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Oct 11, 2008 10:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1 on the intention

Don’t you know that if you aren’t totally and 100% behind the cause, that you’re a crypto-neocon, and probably a racist, too?

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Oct 11, 2008 11:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1 on the commentary

I think what he and the other authors at 538 write about shows Obama bias. So I don’t think the commentary or analysis is unbiased. But the real meat of that site — for me at least — is the numbers. And I don’t think any of the numbers are the product of bias.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Oct 12, 2008 1:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

love 538

I talked to Nate Silver on the phone once, I think in 2005 or 6. Interviewing for one of those BP internships (which I obviously didn’t get).

Possibly my closest contact to greatness, though I didn’t fully know it at the time.

by royalsreview on Oct 10, 2008 4:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Umm. Baseball please.

I like Rany as a baseball writer and understand his political beliefs. I just hope his line about “God forbid another terrorist attack” is meant at the people harmed by an attack, not that it could lead to McCain getting elected. After reading that, I’m not sure what he meant.

by Warden11 on Oct 11, 2008 1:15 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs