Two things - Hochevar & Soria

by hazel on Oct 12, 2008 9:39 PM EDT Comment 38 comments

First, what is everyone expecting from Hochevar? Personally, I expect nothing. I think Hochevar sucks and I think his time has passed. His mechanics have always been questionable (hung-arms Tom House pose), and he has never been able to put it together at any level for any length of time. Even when he has been able to post decent ERAs in small sample sizes his peripherals have been terrible. His FIP has never been good. None of his pitches grades highly. He has been touted by many as having the potential to be a #3 starter, but I can scarcely see that. Why do people like Hochevar at all?

Second, how likely is it that Joakim Soria gets a shot at the rotation? He seems like the utter anti-Hochevar: A guy who was drafted late and never given much of a shot despite consistently looking very good with the stuff and peripherals to back it up. He pounds the strike zone, and has several decent pitches (compared to, say, Hochevar who has zero). Also, I've heard he's the closer to limit his injury risk. Excuse me? As far as I know, he has never had one single injury and was a starter for his entire minor league/mexican league career. I remember hearing one person say his mechanics were bad, but I haven't seen anything to substantiate this claim.

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Is a FIP of 4.41 not good? That’s basically a #3 starter. He had one of the best ground ball rates in the AL…must have a pretty good sinker to do that, no?

The names sandwiched around him in FIP are Scott Kazmir (4.37), Ted Lilly (4.41), Sean Marcum (4.46) and Bronson Arroyo (4.50). That’s hardly bad company.

Soria…yes he’s been injured. He had TJ back in 2003. He missed a couple weeks last year with a shoulder strain. And yea, I’ve seen analysis about his mechanics being less than perfect. It was on driveline but apparently the guy hasn’t transfered it to his new site.

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Oct 12, 2008 9:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

brandon arroyo rocks cincy

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Oct 12, 2008 10:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Bronson Arroyo Rocks,

Period.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Oct 12, 2008 10:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Bronson Arroyo's

Cover of The Goo Goo Doll’s “Slide” brings tears to my eyes. What a majestic voice… :’^)

by kansasjhawk044 on Oct 12, 2008 11:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Must.Hear.It.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Oct 13, 2008 1:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

is he getting ready to sing "Kumbaya" with that guitar?

The concept of progress acts as a protective mechanism to shield us from the terrors of the future. - Collected sayings of Muad'Dib

by buddyball on Oct 14, 2008 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

As to Hochevar

…when his sinkerball is clicking, he is close to unhittable. Looking at his game-by-game stats of stuff like H/9 and SO/9 (HR/9 isn’t as big a deal since he focuses on ground balls), you can see how inconsistent he has been, but the fact that he is still capable of some outstanding outings means that I don’t think he has hit the ceiling yet. I’ve said this before, but as long as we have Gilgameche and Donald Zackary firing from both cylinders on the mound, we don’t need Hoch to be the second coming of Derek Lowe or Chien-Ming Wang. But I do think the reliance on the sinkerball is why we’ve seen such inconsistency and ineffectiveness from Hoch, and as he continues to improve that pitch, he will continue to improve his status in our rotation.

The Soria-to-the-rotation debate is a perpetual one here. I think that unless we trade ZG and Meche gets injured and Bannister gets raptured up to heaven, and Davies retires to play Rock Band 24/7, we probably won’t see Soria in the rotation in the near future. Which is unfortunate, as it shows a lack of willingness to think in other directions. But the last truly creative moment a Royals staffer had consisted of jumping into a shower fully clothed, so hey, who knows?

by DarthYoshi on Oct 12, 2008 11:31 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs

yea... I think that too

Soria to rotation isn’t happening, at least not with this management team

by royalsreview on Oct 13, 2008 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

no creative moments from Royal staffers?

…what about Bob McClure getting half our staff to drop down and throw sidearm across their bodies at one point or other, thus damaging both their arms and careers? I don’t know any other clubs that are thinking outside that box. I expect to see Gobble hiking the ball football-center-style on two-strike offerings this year.

As for Hoch, yeah he’s very solid when the sinker sinks, but there’s no guarantee that’s gonna happen on a game-to-game basis, or that it will improve year-to-year, and his mechanics look scary to me. But even if Hoch improves his consistency, our top priority should always be to add quality depth to the rotation, which is where JoSo belongs.

by royalsroyalsroyals on Oct 16, 2008 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Some interesting Hochevar stats

If you look at a population of 70 AL starting pitchers (the 5 SP’s from each team with the most GS), this is Hochevar’s rank in four key rate metrics

ERA – 59
FIP – 38
xFIP – 46
tRA – 41

If you break those rankings into quintiles (5 equal groups which would correspond to the 5 SP classifications — #1, #2, #3, etc.), these are the classifications he’s in:

ERA #5
FIP #3
xFIP #4
tRA #3

If you average the ranks for all pitchers and then rank those averages, Hochevar comes up 44th out of 70, which is just on the #4 side of the #3/#4 boundary. I think that’s pretty damn good for a rookie. The only one where he looks bad is ERA, which is the least meaningful and most erratic of the above metrics (by far). I crunched these numbers for all AL starters (in that population of 70) and I’ll be posting it in a fanpost probably next weekend.

As I wrote earlier in the season, his statistical profile fits that of a an extreme sinkerballer/groundball pitcher. So to say that his “peripherals have been terrible” is ludicrous. Even if he doesn’t increase his K’s much, he’ll still settle in to be a good #3 SP. If the K’s increase, he could be a good #2 SP (I think that is his ceiling). Of course his success will always be significantly dependent on the quality of the IF defense behind him.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Oct 13, 2008 1:16 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs

Nice numbers, so I guess that means my Hochevar hate is

relatively unfounded. Something your list makes me notice: Is it possible that sinkerballers take a bit longer to mature and learn their way around their stuff? I’m thinking of Lowe (especially), Looper, Cook, and even Wang and Webb sort of broke out a bit later than their fireballing cousins.

Space.

It's a problem we face.

So we never go anywhere.

We just stay in one place.

by hazel on Oct 13, 2008 7:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I definately think the sinker is a lot tougher to truly command.

As you said, all those guys broke out a little late. But, that’s the good news. Hochevar has had time to play with that pitch for a lot of games in the majors. He’s relatively new to 100% sinkers and he’s still learning how to put the pitch where he wants. He was really inconsistent as noted above. When he was on top of the sinker, he really didn’t give up many hits because it was darting down hard. When he got on the side, most of the balls that got hit were belt high and not really sinking hard. When he gets consistent, he’ll be a decent #3 or better starter.

Don’t give up on him just yet. I would like to see him use the 4 seam at 94 more often and work off of that with his sinker. If he could go 94 to nasty sink…. it’d be amazing. I do think the Royals made him throw more sinkers than he would really want to so that he could get a better feel for the pitch. That being said, I would love to see him work between the sink and 4 seam with his off speed stuff as third, fourth, and fifth pitches.

Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.

by 306008 on Oct 13, 2008 7:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I was wondering abou tthat post lately

you should give us an updated version of the chart to reflect all of 2008, and maybe with tRA*/tRA+ added. OxO might also be good to have on there, in the case of groundball pitchers.

I wish I could make fanposts that short and stimulating.

Happy Canadian Thanksgiving, everyone!

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Oct 13, 2008 9:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

what is canadian thanksgiving?

by Dani Woodward on Oct 13, 2008 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

it is a day where Canadians get together to offer gratitude for hockey, reindeer, and maple syrup

But if anyone else can think of any redeeming qualities Canada possess, by all means post them. :)

(I’m Canadian from both sides of my family, so I’m allowed to make fun of them.)

by DarthYoshi on Oct 13, 2008 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The number one smuggled item from Canada to the US is

(Or at least it used to be.) They don't regulate the amount of water to be flushed like we do here.

by BrRoyal on Oct 13, 2008 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It deleted my answer:

How odd—stupid technology

by BrRoyal on Oct 13, 2008 7:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

back bacon?

The concept of progress acts as a protective mechanism to shield us from the terrors of the future. - Collected sayings of Muad'Dib

by buddyball on Oct 14, 2008 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Macintosh Apples

Every McIntosh apple has a direct lineage to a single tree discovered in 1811 by John McIntosh on his farm in Dundela, a hamlet located in Dundas County in the Canadian province of Ontario, near Morrisburg.

Not to be confused with Macintosh Apple computers.

Go Royals!

by BabyBlues on Oct 14, 2008 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Labatt's beer

The concept of progress acts as a protective mechanism to shield us from the terrors of the future. - Collected sayings of Muad'Dib

by buddyball on Oct 14, 2008 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Lab Rat's!

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Oct 15, 2008 1:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It deleted it again

the answer is toilets.

and if that didn’t come through, I guess it just doesn’t appreciate bathroom humor.

by BrRoyal on Oct 15, 2008 7:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nice Post Royal

by GoBabies!! on Oct 14, 2008 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

To answer your questions

I think Hochevar can be a decent back of the rotation guy – a guy that posts a 4.40 – 4.60 ERA every year. Nothing great, but not awful either.

I think the chances at this point of Soria moving to the rotation are awfully slim. And I’d like to see it happen, but I don’t think it will. There will be too much second guessing if he fails or if the pen implodes, and neither Dayton nor Trey strike me as ballsy enough to do it.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Oct 13, 2008 11:31 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

outside of the #1 pick context

thats all good

by royalsreview on Oct 13, 2008 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Pitchers as #1 pick

If Hochevar winds up as a several year 3-5 starter, then that is a success for a #1 draft pick pitcher. Here’s the list of #1 draft pick pitchers:

Draft Picks

1973: David Clyde, Texas Rangers
1976: Floyd Bannister, Houston Astros
1981: Mike Moore, Seattle Mariners
1983: Tim Belcher, Minnesota Twins
1988: Andy Benes, San Diego Padres
1989: Ben McDonald, Baltimore Orioles
1991: Brien Taylor, New York Yankees
1994: Paul Wilson, New York Mets
1996: Kris Benson, Pittsburgh Pirates
1997: Matt Anderson, Detroit Tigers
2002: Bryan Bullington, Pittsburgh Pirates
2006: Luke Hochevar, Kansas City Royals
2007: David Price, Tampa Bay Devil Rays

Hoch and Price excepted, as its too early to tell, and the rest of those guys were either complete flame-outs or (but for maybe a season or two) solid yet unexceptional middle of the rotation inning eater types. If that’s you’re staffm, who’s the ace? McDonald? Benson? Big Banny? That’s pretty slim pickings.

It’s simply unfair and unrealistic to judge Hoch’s career differently just because he’s a number 1 pick. If he becomes an effective middle- or back-of the rotation starter, than he’s a Royals’ draft pick with a career as a starter. That in and of itself is a pretty rare accomplishment.

Sometimes you just gotta roll the potato.

by CentralChamps2009 on Oct 13, 2008 6:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

you forgot John Olerud.

Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.

by 306008 on Oct 13, 2008 7:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This post seems like an overreaction with

no real research on comments made.

Hochevar’s time has passed? After one rookie season he’s done? I don’t even know what to say….

Soria in the rotation is widely debated here. One of the strongest reasons against him in the rotation IS injury history. If he hadn’t had tpj surgery, then I don’t think anyone would oppose him going to the rotation.

I don’t know if this post was to merely get a discussion going or what but it seems way off base…at least it did get a discussion going, so I’ll give you that.

by I need more Esteban on Oct 13, 2008 3:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Does tpj Surgery

Make you a terrible hitter but a decent pitcher?

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Oct 13, 2008 6:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

no, but it does allow you to save 493574327324505637654 runs per game with your overrated defense

by DarthYoshi on Oct 13, 2008 6:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't know

But it gets you two years on the Royals 25-man roster regardless of being the worst everyday player in the major leagues.

It could be worse—A.B. surgery gets you 4 years.

Sometimes you just gotta roll the potato.

by CentralChamps2009 on Oct 13, 2008 6:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

what would a vasectomy get you?

Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.

by 306008 on Oct 13, 2008 7:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

a bag of frozen peas?

by GoBabies!! on Oct 14, 2008 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I was hoping for a 15 year career.

I’d get one, play in the bigs for 15 years and $400K each year, retire, and pay for the reversal! Then invest in some Viagara or Cialis. :)

Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.

by 306008 on Oct 14, 2008 11:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

A lot of inexperience

Hochevar is a guy who has 184.1 career minor league innings. 184.1. Talk about your small sample sizes!

He threw 15 innings in 4 games at A ball. In those innings, he had a .67 WHIP and a 16:2 K:BB. Then, the Royals thought “man, this kid is good, let’s move him up.”

The next year he was in AA and started 16 of the 17 games in which he played, and threw 94 innings. He did not do quite as well, but I believe the Texas League is a hitter’s league. In those 94 innings, he had a 1.45 WHIP, but he struck out 94 compared to only 26 walks. Doing okay, they moved him up to AAA for the remainder of the year, and he went 10 starts there, throwing 58 more innings. The PCL is more geared towards pitching, and his WHIP dropped back to a respectable 1.21, even though his control wasn’t as good. He had 56 K to 27 walks He got a 12+ inning September call up last year and had a 1.18 WHIP with only 5 K and 4 BB.

This year, he spent only 3 games in the minors and threw over 17 innings with 12 K, 6 BB, and a .98 WHIP. There’s no way to leave him down at that point. The kid is 24, was a #1 pick, and completely dominant in AAA. So he came up this year and struggled pitching in the big leagues against very good competition. He faced playoff teams in 7 of his 22 starts; 4 of those 7 starts were on the road. Not often do you have a rookie facing a playoff team in 1/3 of his starts his rookie year. He was able to post a 1.47 WHIP and get 72 K while only walking 47 in 129 innings his rookie campaign.

Hell, if you don’t like him much, the Cards will take him for Chris Duncan. :)

by stlfan on Oct 14, 2008 11:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

the PCL is not a pitcher-friendly league

I would venture to say it is possibly even more of a hitter’s league than the Texas League.

Hoch’s stock still slid noticeably from 2007 to 2008. In AA, his BB/K ratio was great, but his H/9 ratio was abysmal, even for a groundball pitcher (whom you would probably expect to give up a few more hits in the minors). The H/9 rate may have been tolerable, but since making that first jump to AAA ball, Hoch’s K/9 rate has absolutely plummeted, and while his H/9 rate decreased, his BB/9 and HR/9 increased, mitigating much of that.

I think folks here see Hoch as a disappointment because we used a #1 overall pick on him, and because we passed on Timmy Lincecum to take him. I think the latter point is mostly bunk, since hindsight is always 20/20, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Vegas bookies were taking bets on when/if Timmy undergoes Tommy John surgery. But as to the former, I think there is a germ of truth there, since draft busts are much easier for organizations to swallow when they come in later rounds (less $$ invested in contracts, and less big talent passed up on). To be clear, I don’t think Hoch is a bust, but I can understand why some folks might be a bit disappointed in him.

But come ‘round these parts again suggesting that you throw us Duncan for Hoch, and I’ll turn “you should give us Colby Rasmus for Tony Pena Jr” into my new mantra. :)

by DarthYoshi on Oct 15, 2008 1:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nice...

So we’ll just stand pat with Rasmus and you stand pat with Hochevar. I was just saying’…if he’s not wanted, I’m sure he’ll be wanted somewhere else. He’s good enough to warrant that.

by stlfan on Oct 15, 2008 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs