Sickels' Ranking of Royals Prospects
He describes the list as very preliminary and puts Kila all the way up at no. 3.
"The Royals have made a lot of improvements, but still need more offensive depth beyond the top elite batters. Focus on pitching has yielded dividends at the lower levels, but injury attrition will hit at some point, and they could use more polished guys to mix with the tools players."
8 months ago
Royal Kingdom
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NO ROWDY HARDY?!?!?
Urge to kill rising.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on
Oct 15, 2008 10:40 AM EDT
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He's a polished college guy, too!
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on
Oct 15, 2008 10:49 AM EDT
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LOL at Kila coming in #3 after all the arguments about it here recently
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on
Oct 15, 2008 10:50 AM EDT
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I'll be honest...
I’m stunned that Kila got #3 from Sickels. Kila has turned into a top-10 prospect, but not top 5, imho.
by DarthYoshi on
Oct 15, 2008 12:37 PM EDT
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i wonder
if SIckels (being a Lawrence resident, if I remember correctly) got caught up in “Kila Fever,” or if this might actually say (a little bit) about what he thinks of the Royals pitching prospects — not so much that they aren’t good, but maybe they aren’t quite as good as the consensus here has them if the get passed by a 24 year-old 1B who just broke outin AA/AAA.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on
Oct 15, 2008 12:41 PM EDT
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Kila Fever is rampant among those exposed to too much Gload.
Royals fans have to make sure they drink plenty of fluids, limit their exposure to Gload and keep their legs elevated. Some feel Shealy is a good anecdote to Kila Fever, but tests are inconclusive – it may just be a cheap generic knock-off.
We must invest more in research and development to come up with a suitable cure for Kila Fever. I don’t want my son to grow up in a world where he is teased by mammoth minor league numbers only to be let down by major league failure. Help us find a cure. For the children.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on
Oct 15, 2008 12:56 PM EDT
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He always is conservative with pitching prospects.
Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.
by 306008 on
Oct 15, 2008 2:08 PM EDT
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position player prospects are often considered slightly easier to project, though
…but not always (see also: M. Aviles).
FWIW, my top ten would have probably gone:
Moustakas, A-
Hosmer, A-
Cortes, B+
Melville, B+
Rosa, B
Duffy, B
Montgomery, B
Ka’aihue, B-
Johnny G, B-
Wood, C+
As an aside, I’m surprised Sickels has Mongtomery ranked higher than Melville, albeit with the same grade.
by DarthYoshi on
Oct 15, 2008 3:01 PM EDT
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Kila, Kila, Kila!
I eat some flames in the other thread for deeming Kila the #3 Royals prospect. Now, I feel justified. He’s for real, folks.
by Royals Nation on
Oct 15, 2008 12:54 PM EDT
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eat some flames?
Rather – took some flames. I long for the day editing posts becomes a function of SB Nation.
by Royals Nation on
Oct 15, 2008 12:55 PM EDT
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Wow.
Running around in a thread repeating, “John Sickels disagrees with you” is seriously immature and mildly pathetic. I hope you’re proud of yourself.
by DarthYoshi on
Oct 15, 2008 1:05 PM EDT
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Refute the content, not the source
Vader.
by Royals Nation on
Oct 15, 2008 3:50 PM EDT
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you are using the source to validate yourself
refuting the source is all that is necessary.
by DarthYoshi on
Oct 15, 2008 4:12 PM EDT
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How about describing how Kaaihue shouldn't be #3?
…Instead of blasting my OPINIONS regarding Royals prospects and placing Kaaihue as high as a prominent baseball author and blogger? No, Sickels’ opinions are far from the end-all, but maybe you should try convincing me why Kaaihue shouldn’t be higher, and why my grades in the other thread were obscenely friendly.
by Royals Nation on
Oct 15, 2008 4:27 PM EDT
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okay, a few things first
I’m not sure where you got the notion that saying there was “hardcore grade inflation” constitutes “blasting” or “flaming” you or your opinions. For pete’s sake, you’re the only one here choosing to type words in bold and all caps. And yes, posting multiple times “John Sickels disagrees with you!!!” was petty at best, and you deserved to be called out on it.
Second, I’m sorry that I didn’t get around to responding to your reply on the other thread about friendlier grading/Kila. It wasn’t personal—I’ve been swamped with midterms and I haven’t been following some threads as closely as others.
Third, regarding why your grades were friendly, simply comparing them to Sickels’ grades does that quite well. Ka’aihue, Duffy, Cortes, Rosa, Melville, Gutierrez, Wood, Pimentel, Taylor, and Bianchi all received higher grades (to one varying degree or another) from you than from Sickels. That’s half your list. To me, that’s grade inflation, though I do agree with some of your grades, like giving Melville a B+. All in all, I don’t think it is a huge deal, I think it is just an aspect of how fans (and I include myself here) sometimes overvalue their own prospects, and I wanted to note that I felt like some substantial grade inflation was taking place.
On why Kila should not be a top-5 prospect for the Royals—there are tons of reasons, pick your favorite:
1. His career line includes only one outstanding season. His stats in two years of A ball in Burlington are thoroughly unremarkable, especially for a first baseman, and his 2006 line in AA ball was absolutely abysmal, especially for playing in a hitter’s league (I don’t care what position you play—a .202/.305/.303 line with a .608 OPS is horrendous). To be fair, Kaaihue did post a very respectable line in 2005, but between 2002 and 2007, it was clearly the outlier.
2. He had to repeat AA ball twice, and was actually demoted from AA to high A ball following his awful 2006 campaign. Good prospects shouldn’t have to repeat a level more than once and shouldn’t have to face demotion from AA to high A ball.
3. He doesn’t possess any outstanding tools—his physical attributes and talents are good, but not anything to write home about.
4. Both the Texas League and the PCL are extremely hitter-friendly leagues, and it is little surprise that a 24-year-old should do well in those environs. I would draw absolutely zero conclusions off of his September big league stats, as they are a ridiculously small sample size.
5. There is a significant chance, based on Kila’s track record, that he will regress from his 2008 stats. The 2005-2006 transition shows this pretty well.
A top-5 prospect in any remotely decent farm system (which the Royals have—their cupboard was pretty bare after Gordon and Butler were called up, but it is less so now) should be a player who projects as an above-average everyday starter in the big leagues. Kila simply hasn’t evidenced that on any sort of year-to-year basis.
by DarthYoshi on
Oct 15, 2008 5:18 PM EDT
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what will Kila do with KSeitz ?
He should be an A+ now!! In three years we’ll be talking about trading Hosmer because Kila is so entrenched at 1B. :)
Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.
by 306008 on
Oct 15, 2008 6:22 PM EDT
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Very fair, and excellent analysis
I won’t concede my Kila/Top 3 selection, but I’ll apologize for calling you out like I did, and rubbing it in, so to speak.
by Royals Nation on
Oct 16, 2008 1:36 AM EDT
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it's all fine
I think, and hope, that Kila will turn out to be a productive 1b for the Royals. We’ll see what Sickels’ final grades turn out to be.
by DarthYoshi on
Oct 16, 2008 12:10 PM EDT
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Well, for starters
you could look at how Sickels said Kila could be anywhere from 3-8 depending on how highly you value pitching.
Which is really no different than Sickels saying “as far as I’m concerned, 3-8 on this list are fungible.”
Sarcasmâ„¢. It's the new gravy.
by jonfmorse on
Oct 16, 2008 2:10 PM EDT
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ALL RANKINGS ARE EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY!
I don’t know why prefaces each ranking like this. Preliminary to what?
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on
Oct 16, 2008 2:46 PM EDT
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his book
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on
Oct 16, 2008 4:18 PM EDT
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Little Guido and MITCH
Nice to see Giovotella at B-. I know that some had him projected as a utility type. Does Grade B- mean that he has a chance at being a league-average regular? Even getting a guy who is below average but above replacement level is a decent thing — means not overpaying for them on the FA market when the need arises.
Also, on a less exciting note, what do obsevers make of MITCH? He’s not star or starter, but I figure if he can play an above average CF, that’s an asset, as long as hit can OPS at least in the low 700s (I personally don’t think Gathright can do either). That’s a useful thing for a team like the Royals, where DDJ is the only one of their starting who can play CF at this point, and he definitely needs days off.
Another issue with MITCH is his splits — I checked minorleaguesplits.com, and, although he’s a lefty, his L/R splits show him hitting lefties considerably better. WTF?
Anyway, what are the odds that mitch could OPS even .720 in the majors?
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on
Oct 15, 2008 2:53 PM EDT
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He has
Gritty fourth outfielder written all over him.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on
Oct 15, 2008 2:56 PM EDT
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does that mean he'll be a good defender with at least replacement offense
or does it mean that he’ll OPS .640 with bad range and routes while everyone talks about how good his glove is?
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on
Oct 15, 2008 3:05 PM EDT
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At the moment, Mitch is our best in house option to start in centerfield.
That is not a good thing.
Go Royals!
by BabyBlues on
Oct 15, 2008 3:27 PM EDT
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Did DeJesus get traded?
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on
Oct 15, 2008 3:37 PM EDT
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DDJ?
With all due respect, DeJesus is our best in house option to start in centerfield, and it shouldn’t even be an issue.
Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!
by loyal2sdad on
Oct 15, 2008 3:37 PM EDT
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haha
I agree with the others that if the roster stays the same that DDJ should start in center, but I bet it would be a surprisingly close contest between Teahen/DDJ/jOGui and haveing DDJ should start in left, MITCH in center, and Teahen and Guillen should platoon in right…
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on
Oct 15, 2008 3:47 PM EDT
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ugh, let me try that last part again
Teahen/DDJ/jOGui and haveing DDJ should start in left, MITCH in center, and Teahen and Guillen should platoon in right…
should have been that it might be closer contest than people might think between starting Teahen and Guillen in the corners, and DDJ in CF vs.
LF DDJ
CF MITCH
RF Teahen/JoGui platoon
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on
Oct 15, 2008 3:49 PM EDT
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Exectaly, and it allows us to have Teahen as the backup and midigates the bad glove of Guillen.
That would save us abour 40 outs over our current outfield, which if you include two base errors in the outfield and ability to prevent EBH is almost a 1-1 ratio in terms of runs, and therefore wins us four more games. I would doubt that Teahen gives us 4 runs over Mitch in terms of offensive production. Still not a lot of an upgrade unless we get a better bat in centerfield, but I think DDJ in left is the way to go unless we get a different good defending and hitting corner. I would think that the CF would be cheaper considering we had to spend 36 million to get Guillen. The other option would be Gordan in left and find a stopgap 3b until Moose is ready or play Teahen at third.
Go Royals!
by BabyBlues on
Oct 15, 2008 6:22 PM EDT
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i think that the B- for Johnny G
Probably means that he projects as an average or maybe a hair below average regular starter. C+ types usually end up being 4th outfielders, spot starters, or other decent bench players, so B- would probably imply that he has the chops to be a starter, but a mostly unremarkable starter.
I’m not entirely sure what to do with Maier. With the caveat that his 90 or so AB’s in the bigs this year are a very small sample size, there were a lot of issues—two of the biggest being his inability to take walks and hitting for absolutely zero power. I think he’ll probably become a serviceable fourth outfielder, but only if he can come up with an extra-base hit every now and again . I do think that calling him a “prospect” at this point is a little charitable—he turns 27 next year and probably won’t get much better.
by DarthYoshi on
Oct 15, 2008 3:14 PM EDT
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as for Kila
Sickels does say he could easily be anywhere from 3rd to 8th.
That being said, numbers are numbers, even if he was repeating AA at age 24. He also went on to improve on AA numbers at AAA (in a small sample size), and then to, at the very least, look VERY comfortable against Major Leaguers (again, in a small sample size).
What’s not to like about a 24 year old with a combination of power, plate discipline, and the ability to avoid strikeouts? Number 3 on the list sounds about right to me – certainly shouldn’t be lower than 5th (I could see Cortes and Rosa ranking ahead of him)
Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!
by loyal2sdad on
Oct 15, 2008 3:42 PM EDT
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Anyone else surprised
Blake Johnson and Julio Pimentel are not on his list at all? That strikes me as a large omission. Neither are great shakes, but they’re definitely better prospects than Mitch Maier, Joe Dickerson or Chris Nicoll.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on
Oct 15, 2008 4:47 PM EDT
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A little, more so for Johnson than for Pimentel
Pimentel’s stock took a pretty serious blow this year, probably a little more so than Johnson’s. Unlike Pimentel, Johnson was able to keep his BB/9 rate down, and he generally gives up fewer hits than Pimentel. I think the omission of Johnson was slightly more egregious, but in any case, I think they both are certainly better prospects than Maier or Nicoll. I don’t even really count Maier as a prospect any more, and Nicoll is a little like a pitching version of Kila—an AA player who is on the older side (he turns 25 at the end of this month), but who happened to have a good 2008 season.
by DarthYoshi on
Oct 15, 2008 5:29 PM EDT
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I like Pimentel more...
Both hurt their stocks by not pitching well, but Pimentel’s pure stuff is much better. I think he’d take off if moved to the bullpen, but there’s no reason to do that quite yet.
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
by doublestix on
Oct 15, 2008 5:54 PM EDT
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A lot of ways to look at it, one way is how they fit into the needs of the Royals.
If you look at it from that perspective, we really need bats and our pitching is pretty solid right now. If you look at if from who is the best in terms of the major leauge value then it looks a lot different. The fact is that the Royals could use players like Mitch and Kila right now, and the pitchign prospects are not needed and will most likely stay in the minors next year other then Rosa. I would say that if you are deciding top picks you need to pick one of these perspectives first and then decide what order you like. You need to compare apples to apples, not apples to oranges.
Go Royals!
by BabyBlues on
Oct 15, 2008 6:29 PM EDT
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I'm pretty sure that Sickels doesn't take organizational need
…into account when making his ranks and grades. If I’m wrong, please correct me. And a lot of these hitting prospects (Moose, Dickerson, et al) are going to be in the minors for at least another couple of years. They won’t be called up regardless. I don’t understand how this is apples to oranges.
by DarthYoshi on
Oct 15, 2008 6:56 PM EDT
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I wasn't talking about Sickels specifically, just in general.
It is a pretty simple concept that if you are looking for who can help the Roylas vs who has the best chance to make an impact in the major leauges as a whole, that you would come up with a different ranks for postion players vs pitchers. If your organization needed pitching, the pitchers would be ranked higher, if they needed postion players, then they would tend to be ranked higher because that would make your club better if they were ready to join the ballclub and make a difference.
Go Royals!
by BabyBlues on
Oct 16, 2008 12:32 PM EDT
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Pimentels' ERA wasn't good
But I think NYRoyal and others have pointed out his peripherals were actually not bad.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on
Oct 16, 2008 10:56 AM EDT
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