Mike Barnett No More
Via a Royals Press Release:
Kansas City, MO (October 2, 2008) – The Kansas City Royals today announced that the following coaches have been offered contracts to return for the 2009 season. The list includes: pitching coach Bob McClure, bench coach Dave Owen, first base coach Rusty Kuntz and bullpen coach John Mizerock.
Mike Barnett (hitting) and Luis Silverio (third base) were not offered Major League coaching contracts for 2009. Silverio has been offered another coaching position within the organization. An announcement regarding the full 2009 coaching staff will come at a later date.
- McClure has served as pitching coach since 2006.
- Barnett was hired as the Royals hitting coach on May 1, 2006. Last season the Royals finished 6th in the American League in batting average (.269), but just 12th in OBP (.320) and slugging (12th), en route to finishing 12th in runs. As mentioned earlier this week, the Royals did not reach 700 runs scored (691) for the first time since 1995. Looking at this low-patience, low-power roster however, it's hard to blame Barnett for these numbers too much.
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Barnett is gone
Playoffs here we come!
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by NYRoyal on
Oct 2, 2008 4:13 PM EDT
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worth at least 10 games there right?
Go Royals!
by BabyBlues on
Oct 2, 2008 4:15 PM EDT
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If by 10, you mean 25, then yes
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by NYRoyal on
Oct 2, 2008 4:52 PM EDT
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Seemed like an obvious move
Doesn’t mean it will change much, but it seemed like the obvious move.
I’ve heard Gary Denbo’s name mentioned quite a bit (former Yankees hitting instructor) as someone that is tight with Hillman that could very well be our next hitting instructor. I wouldn’t anticipate Terry Pendleton making a lateral move to come here from Atlanta. And some have suggested Kevin Seitzer, to which I would say his only real qualifications are that he is an ex-Royal and runs a neat hitting clinic for high schoolers in Lenexa, but he was an abject failure as Arizona’s hitting instructor.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on
Oct 2, 2008 4:16 PM EDT
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I wouldn't rule Pendleton out though
and he may be unemployed in a few weeks himself
"So whattya say, should we clean this place up?" - Tom Cruise
by DyeFan187 on
Oct 2, 2008 4:52 PM EDT
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850 runs, here they come!
Worst 5 walk rate, 2008 Royals
1) MITCH 2.2%
2) (TIE) Olivo, 2.6, TPJ 2.6
3) Guillen 3.7%
4) Avilanche 4.1%
5) Gload 5.6%
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on
Oct 2, 2008 4:17 PM EDT
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WTF Guillen
thats awful
avilanche is pretty scary as well
"So whattya say, should we clean this place up?" - Tom Cruise
by DyeFan187 on
Oct 2, 2008 4:52 PM EDT
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Shhhh
You don’t want to be saying bad things about Aviles around here.
A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.
by NHZ on
Oct 2, 2008 9:12 PM EDT
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Off with his head! Mexicute him!!
Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.
by 306008 on
Oct 2, 2008 11:47 PM EDT
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in aviles's defense
his philosophy is, if he sees a pitch he can hit, he’s going to swing. and if you’re hitting .330, can’t ask much more than that.
by benfunke on
Oct 3, 2008 12:21 PM EDT
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Ask Jeff Francoeur or Jose Guillen how that philosophy has worked out for them this year
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on
Oct 3, 2008 1:14 PM EDT
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i'd say aviles has better discipline than both of them
he doesn’t take many walks but you hardly see him flail at pitches.
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
by doublestix on
Oct 4, 2008 2:00 AM EDT
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Some interesting pitch f/x data
%age of pitched balls outside of the strike zone that they swing at (2008):
Francoeur 36.3%
Aviles 35.5%
Guillen 31.6%
%age of time they make contact when they swing at balls outside of the strike zone (2008):
Francoeur 60.2%
Aviles 70.0%
Guillen 67.1%
It looks like Aviles was more of a free swinger this year than Guillen, but less than Francoeur. And it looks like Aviles makes a little more contact with those outside-the-zone pitches than Guillen and much more than Francoeur.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by NYRoyal on
Oct 4, 2008 2:33 AM EDT
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ok. Interesting.
It always seemed that the balls Aviles swung at out of the zone weren’t 12 inches outside. They were just off the plate. Can we check that pitch f/x with pitches 4 inches out of the zone? And then 8 inches out of the zone?
Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.
by 306008 on
Oct 5, 2008 8:30 AM EDT
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Royals GM Dayton Moore personally negotiating with the new hitting coach

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on
Oct 2, 2008 4:19 PM EDT
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Meet the new coach
same as the old coach
by Gopherballs on
Oct 2, 2008 4:25 PM EDT
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The Who?
The concept of progress acts as a protective mechanism to shield us from the terrors of the future. - Collected sayings of Muad'Dib
by buddyball on
Oct 2, 2008 4:28 PM EDT
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Well, we'll probably get fooled again
Kansas City Royals: your 2006 and 2007 NL Central champions!
by mazoboom on
Oct 2, 2008 5:03 PM EDT
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Ugh
Not more Hu trade rumors!
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on
Oct 2, 2008 10:28 PM EDT
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This move had to be made
And I’m glad that GMDM realized it. I’m curious now though…
Will Trey get a significant say in the hire? Will he bring in someone from the Yanks org that maybe he worked with in the past? Will GMDM dip back into the Braves org (I hope not, that barrel has to be scraping the bottom by now)?
I say we make a BIG push to get Hal McRae back on the right side of the state!
by GoBabies!! on
Oct 2, 2008 4:26 PM EDT
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Hal has a reputation
Of not working well with youngsters from what I recall, but that was over a decade ago, maybe the crusty old guy has changed.
And why did he not pinch hit Brett for Keith Miller?
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on
Oct 2, 2008 10:29 PM EDT
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who is the batting coach in Omaha?
it seems to work when players are sent down, they come back up with a good approach and success at the plate.
The concept of progress acts as a protective mechanism to shield us from the terrors of the future. - Collected sayings of Muad'Dib
by buddyball on
Oct 2, 2008 4:29 PM EDT
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Royals Review controls the Red Button

It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.
by kcscoliny on
Oct 2, 2008 4:35 PM EDT
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OT: playoffs
Does it bug anyone else that they usually put up the stats just from the playoffs, and not fro the regular season?
i think this is true on TV, but it’s really annoying on Gameday.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on
Oct 2, 2008 4:44 PM EDT
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Yes
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on
Oct 2, 2008 10:30 PM EDT
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+3
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on
Oct 6, 2008 8:33 PM EDT
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(insert rant about how maybe fans would be smarter if tne networks would start showing OBP and OPS, and perhaps ISO, too)
first OPS, tomorrow wOBA
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on
Oct 2, 2008 10:42 PM EDT
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Barnett was always about his aggressiveness, was he not?
"So whattya say, should we clean this place up?" - Tom Cruise
by DyeFan187 on
Oct 2, 2008 4:53 PM EDT
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No
I guess we don’t really know what his philosophy is/was, but his public statements were always very general about batters needing to be both patient and aggressive. As in, “wait for your pitch and then when it comes, be aggressive enough to jump on it.”
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by NYRoyal on
Oct 2, 2008 4:56 PM EDT
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I love it
So the secret to hitting is to
1) not swing at pitches you can’t hit hard
2) Swing at pitches you can hit hard
If that’s the guy the Royals fired, I’m sure the newer, better guy will turn Gordon to, at worst, Adam Dunn.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on
Oct 2, 2008 4:58 PM EDT
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The good news
Now we’ll have someone new to complain about. It was getting boring typing “B-A-R-N-E-T-T” all the time. Now we’ll have a different set of letters to type when we complain about the hitting.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by NYRoyal on
Oct 2, 2008 5:09 PM EDT
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True
I’ll be glad to have a new set of problems—-although hopefully that plural is still less than those with Barnett. – TL
by timlacy on
Oct 2, 2008 7:26 PM EDT
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the beauty of L-A-U
The concept of progress acts as a protective mechanism to shield us from the terrors of the future. - Collected sayings of Muad'Dib
by buddyball on
Oct 2, 2008 10:53 PM EDT
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Considering how little we know about how well Barnett did his job...
…the next guy could easily be worse, or better or pretty much the same. And in the end it will all add up to just about nothing.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by NYRoyal on
Oct 2, 2008 10:53 PM EDT
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but I thought you wanted a more easily spelled name
The concept of progress acts as a protective mechanism to shield us from the terrors of the future. - Collected sayings of Muad'Dib
by buddyball on
Oct 2, 2008 10:54 PM EDT
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If only Mel Ott were still alive
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by NYRoyal on
Oct 2, 2008 11:04 PM EDT
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I believe Mel
Hall might be available
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on
Oct 2, 2008 11:06 PM EDT
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Or he could be the greatest hitting coach in history
Why so pessimistic!!!
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on
Oct 2, 2008 10:56 PM EDT
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Every other team in the majors has had a chance to hire him
and they all passed
that should (blank) us (blank)ing.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on
Oct 2, 2008 10:56 PM EDT
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I'm looking forward to the great optimism...
…which will surround the hiring of Joe Anonymous as the new hitting coach. As long as he uses the word “patient” more often than the word “aggressive” in his interviews, I’m sure the plate approach of all Royals hitters will change greatly next year. More wins will be guaranteed.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by NYRoyal on
Oct 2, 2008 11:07 PM EDT
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Nah, patience just...
…clogs the bases. We want those boys to swing, swing, swing—-like the youth of the 1930s! – TL
by timlacy on
Oct 3, 2008 7:13 AM EDT
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My real issue is with Silverio
dude had to go…
or not
i don’t remember much bitching about runners being sent improperly this year, maybe i missed something
"So whattya say, should we clean this place up?" - Tom Cruise
by DyeFan187 on
Oct 2, 2008 5:06 PM EDT
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I appreciate the committment behind this post
I think he was above average. Every MLB third base coach is going to send runners sometimes when he shouldn’t. I don’t think Silverio was especially bad at that. I do think that when you have an anemic offense, it makes sense to send runners home more often. Some research has shown that “taking the extra base,” including waving runners home is a relatively good risk (of course it is situationally dependent). When you’ve got a bunch of good hitters, it makes sense to be more conservative. But when you’ve got a bunch of poor hitters, does it really make more sense to stop the guy at third so you can wait for another hit? With the Royals this season, that next hit very, very often didn’t come.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by NYRoyal on
Oct 2, 2008 5:12 PM EDT
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I thought
If ANYTHING, he was too conservative at times this year, given our lack of pop at the plate. You are almost forced to be aggressive on the paths, instead of conservative…
by GoBabies!! on
Oct 2, 2008 5:32 PM EDT
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he did allow his daughter to marry B-error-a
The concept of progress acts as a protective mechanism to shield us from the terrors of the future. - Collected sayings of Muad'Dib
by buddyball on
Oct 2, 2008 10:55 PM EDT
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I think this is...
…a conciliatory move to get another TH guy here. – TL
by timlacy on
Oct 2, 2008 7:27 PM EDT
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No more Angel Berroa
Means we didn’t have to keep Angel’s father in law, Luis around anymore.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on
Oct 2, 2008 10:30 PM EDT
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+1000
I think Brett would agree. But, at this point, I’d be happy with a Gerald Perry-like guy or even Pendleton. – TL
by timlacy on
Oct 2, 2008 7:28 PM EDT
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Lau Is Still
Being represented.
http://lauhitting.com/
"The Lau name is synonymous with legendary hitting instruction. Charley Lau Sr., viewed by many as the greatest hitting coach of all time, worked his magic with the bats of the Kansas City Royals, New York Yankees and The Chicago White Sox. His most celebrated student, George Brett, is the only player in baseball history to win 3 batting titles in 3 different decades.
Schooled in the art of hitting by his father from the time he could walk, Charley Lau, Jr. has carried on and augmented his father’s work for over twenty-five years. Charley Jr. has worked with some of the highest profile players in the game as well as dozens of collegiate, high school and little league athletes. Now you can learn from Charley too! "
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on
Oct 2, 2008 7:52 PM EDT
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There we go: ...
…hire Charley Lau, Jr. Bring him on. Restore the roar. – TL
by timlacy on
Oct 2, 2008 8:50 PM EDT
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Can we hire Skeletor to be our hitting coach?
A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.
by NHZ on
Oct 2, 2008 9:12 PM EDT
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I don't get it

Keep your head on top of the ball!
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on
Oct 2, 2008 9:36 PM EDT
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Well, we have a young team, right?
Don’t you think we need someone intimidating to whip all these kids into shape?
A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.
by NHZ on
Oct 3, 2008 2:14 AM EDT
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pennant style champagne celebration in my apartment over this firing
should have been fired last year…sometime during the season…but let’s see if someone w/ trey’s idea of patience gets hired…it seems he was hamstrung w/ barnett and buddy’s idea of being aggressive
Never giving up on your team is what makes you a good fan.
by kcisbetterthanstlateverything on
Oct 2, 2008 9:27 PM EDT
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Obvious move
Overdue as well.
Is Greg Luzinski available to come back?
by cookierojas73 on
Oct 2, 2008 11:11 PM EDT
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As a hitting coach
or a corner outfielder who can hit? Because right now, the Royals have neither.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on
Oct 2, 2008 11:14 PM EDT
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OK weve had fun with names
Who are the serious candidates? Leaked names? Anything else?
Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.
by 306008 on
Oct 2, 2008 11:53 PM EDT
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No idea
But I’m confident it will be Hillman’s choice for the most part. I remember shortly after Hillman was hired, he and Moore were asked what would happen with the rest of the coaching staff. They answered that for the first year HIllman would bring in some of his people, but they would definitely keep some of the coaching staff for continuity, and because some of them were good coaches. The implication was that after the first year, they would re-evaluate the coaching staff and replace anyone they agreed needed to be replaced. In general, managers get the coaching staff they want. I think it is HIllman’s decision, as ratified by Moore.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by NYRoyal on
Oct 3, 2008 12:15 AM EDT
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We are hiring Leo Mazzone to be our hitting coach
A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.
by NHZ on
Oct 3, 2008 2:13 AM EDT
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Or a Japanese coach to tell the team that they don't have any marbles.
Go Royals!
by BabyBlues on
Oct 3, 2008 3:19 AM EDT
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Gary Denbo
I would think its the overwhelming favorite.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on
Oct 3, 2008 11:23 AM EDT
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Seitzer
Don’t nobody say nothing bad about Kevin Seitzer!! There are a lot of reasons why we should hire him, and not just the former Royal thing. He was pretty much screwed over by the D-Backs who really didn’t give him much of a chance. I would love to see him here. His kid is in college now so he would have the time, hopefully.
There is a pretty big list of major leaguers that he works with privately that would tell you what he can do. Just ask Raul Ibanez.
In the Royals game of life, Neifi Perez is the rake.
by Matty486 on
Oct 3, 2008 9:01 AM EDT
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Poor Alex
Can you imagine what that would stir up in KC if they brought back the last “next George Brett?”
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on
Oct 3, 2008 9:03 AM EDT
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Ha!
The Last next George Brett teaching the Current Next George Brett. Maybe they should just get THE George Brett to caoch him… on how to soil his shorts. Although, Alex got that one out of the way in his very first MLB at bat.
Off topic… Do you think maybe that first at bat really messed with Alex’s psyche? I mean, bases loaded against Schilling on Opening Day, sellout crowd, standing ovation, and you haven’t even taken a signle pitch in your first MLB at bat yet? I would think striking out there, when you’ve never failed in your entire life, would lead you to believe that you might not have what it takes. Probably not, but I guess it’s possible.
Anyway, to bring this back on topic, we’ll blame that alleged psyche-crushing failure on Barnett and now Gordon is going to become the THE Alex Gordon with the help of (insert new hitting coach here). And in 15-20 years, some other young stud is going to be the Next Alex Gordon. YAY!
Don't Stop Believing!
by KC Chris on
Oct 3, 2008 10:18 AM EDT
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The D-Backs were pretty awful with him
And then immediately improved. And he had a really abrasive personality.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on
Oct 3, 2008 11:23 AM EDT
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Gary Denbo close friends with Hillman
A source who is usually in the know on Royals Corner says Jack Maloof, a roving coordinator with the Braves, could be in the running.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on
Oct 3, 2008 11:44 AM EDT
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(insert joke)
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on
Oct 3, 2008 1:14 PM EDT
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Let's pretend we're going to...
…have Denbo as our hitting coach. What will we potentially be getting in statistical terms? Here are the Blue Jays offensive stats for this year compared to the Royals:
1. Runs: KC 691; Jays 714
2. Walks: KC 392; Jays 521
3. OBP: KC .320; Jays .331
4. BA: KC .269; Jays .264
5. SLG: KC .397 ; Jays .399
Well, I’d certainly take numbers 1, 2, and 3. I especially like #2.
But, of course, this doesn’t cover qualitative attributes. Did the Jays score in bunches or consistently? What was their BA with runners in scoring position? Was their BA better as the game went on or in earlier ABs? And was this Denbo’s first season with the Jays? If so, what was the season-long trajectory? If not, what were the Jays stats last season. Finally, how did the players get along with Denbo?
I know nothing about Maloof, so someone else will have to contribute there. – TL
by timlacy on
Oct 3, 2008 3:35 PM EDT
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It is possible that Toronto's different offensive stats had more to do with them having different players than having a different hitting coach
The assertion that a team’s approach at the plate is determined or dictated by the hitting coach is a myth. With respect, I think the nature of Toronto’s hitting stats tells you absolutely nothing about what kind of hitting coach Denbo is or how good he is at that job.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by NYRoyal on
Oct 3, 2008 4:15 PM EDT
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On the other hand, if...
…hitting coaches were worthless, there’d be none. Yet managers amazingly continue to hire hitting coaches. Hmm… What could this mean? … … I’m going to guess that, while a team’s approach at the plate is not “determined or dictated by the hitting coach,” the hitting coach nevertheless plays a part in the outcomes of a team’s offense.
But I do agree that one season’s worth of stats is worthless in this regard. A hitting coach’s value is likely able to be determined after 2 or 3 full seasons with a team. – TL
by timlacy on
Oct 3, 2008 5:05 PM EDT
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On the other hand, if…hitting coaches were worthless, there’d be none.
I didn’t say they are entirely worthless. I just think their value is minimal.
Yet managers amazingly continue to hire hitting coaches. Hmm… What could this mean?
That they think they are of some value. How much value? I’m sure different managers have different opinions on this. Of course some managers think it is a good idea to sac bunt in the third inning. Does that make it a wise strategy?
I’m going to guess that, while a team’s approach at the plate is not "determined or dictated by the hitting coach," the hitting coach nevertheless plays a part in the outcomes of a team’s offense.
“Plays a part.” Does the hitting coach affect the team’s hitting at all? Probably. But I think the affect is very small. Unless we’re talking about true hitting gurus like Charlie Lau, hitting coaches don’t build or re-build hitters. They don’t make patient guys into free swingers, and they don’t make hackmasters into paragons of plate discipline.
But I do agree that one season’s worth of stats is worthless in this regard. A hitting coach’s value is likely able to be determined after 2 or 3 full seasons with a team.
I don’t think so. I don’t think much of any effect is there at all. And I think looking at any team’s stats over one, two or ten seasons doesn’t tell you anything about the hitting coach. There’s no way to isolate the nebulous, questionable effect a hitting coach has on the team’s hitting.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by NYRoyal on
Oct 3, 2008 6:08 PM EDT
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And I do agree...
…that input (i.e. players) has A LOT to do with output. Having a solid corner outfielder and first baseman (for a season) with power will do more for the offense than any hitting coach. Still, there can be little doubt that a good hitting coach can make a difference in the bottom line. – Tl
by timlacy on
Oct 3, 2008 5:08 PM EDT
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Blue Jays as offensive hope?
This season, KC was 12th in the Al in OBP, Toronto was 10th. KC was 12th in OPS, Toronto was 11th.
Using Stat Corner’s park- league-adjusted stats, according to Batting Runs Above Average (bRAA) and wOBA* (weighted On_, here are the bottom four teams in the AL this year.
TOR -49.3 (.326 wOBA)
SEA -74.0 (.321)
KC -79.4 (.320)
OAK -98.1(.317)
Maybe a bit of improvement? Perhaps there is a difference in an offensive outfield containing Vernon Wells, Alexis Rios, and Adam Lind, versus DDJ, Mark Teahen, and JoGui?
I’m guessing the main difference is better hitters.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on
Oct 3, 2008 4:06 PM EDT
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this was supposed to go unser timlacy's Denbo post
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on
Oct 3, 2008 4:35 PM EDT
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Is "unser" a better....
…location than under? ;) I suppose “uber” would be the best location/qualitative attribute ever for a reply. – TL
by timlacy on
Oct 3, 2008 5:09 PM EDT
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Rec'd
sorry, I skipped over this the first time I read it.
Keep in mind, for the future, that, despite Lou Gehrig, German is much less gritty than Italian
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on
Oct 5, 2008 4:43 PM EDT
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On your very last...
…point, agreed. But I’m still glad that Barnett is gone. – TL
by timlacy on
Oct 3, 2008 5:10 PM EDT
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Aside:...
…Man, the one time I do a little number crunching, I both get ripped both (a) for the numbers being worthless and (b) for using the wrong kind of numbers! … I’ll just settle for unknowable “psychological factors” in the future (i.e. the players will like a new hitting coach better, be happier, and therefore perform better). – TL
by timlacy on
Oct 3, 2008 5:22 PM EDT
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that's what happens around here.
You put some work into something and it must be wrong becuase other people didn’t do that work. They come up with something to support themselves.
That is why I think stats are worthless. They tell you how a player HAS played in the past. Or is currently playing. They say nothing about the future. Sometimes you can predict but it’s not always accurate because that isn’t taking into account attributes. (psychological makeup, mental toughness, hitting approach, work ethic, goals)
You can find a stat somewhere that SUPPORTS your argument. It’s a losing battle.
Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.
by 306008 on
Oct 5, 2008 8:40 AM EDT
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Wrong, very wrong
You put some work into something and it must be wrong becuase other people didn’t do that work. They come up with something to support themselves.
You couldn’t be more wrong. Just because someone’s analysis includes stats doesn’t make it right or even sound analysis. Argumentation can be good or bad whether it contains stats or not. Therefore it can be agreed with or disagreed with whether it has stats or not. So if someone uses stats poorly to make an argument, then that is a problem which should be pointed out in a discussion. Right? It’s not like any and every argument which contains any stats is therefore a solid argument which everyone should agree with.
That is why I think stats are worthless. They tell you how a player HAS played in the past. Or is currently playing. They say nothing about the future.
How a person has performed in the past gives you good information about how he should perform in the future. It’s the best information we have. Is a level of future performance guaranteed by past performance? Of course not. But to say that stats are worthless or meaningless is about as ridiculous as it gets.
Sometimes you can predict but it’s not always accurate because that isn’t taking into account attributes. (psychological makeup, mental toughness, hitting approach, work ethic, goals)
Predictions based on stats are a hell of a lot more accurate than predictions based on tools, makeup, mental toughness, hitting approach, work ethic and goals. One of the reason stats are so valuable is that they are concrete and knowable. What do we know about a player’s makeup, toughness, work ethic and goals? Damned little. And we what we know about the relationship between those things and performance is even less.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by NYRoyal on
Oct 5, 2008 3:16 PM EDT
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No response, just a statement that I'm sure many will disagree with.
Stats have ruined the game. Stats tell how you’ve played and they are fine for what they do. When you base your game on stats instead of playing hard and to win it becomes a problem.
I have played baseball my entire life. I’ve coached at the collegiate level and currently at the HS level. From having worked with these athletes, self-gratification and glorification have ruined the game. It’s not about beating your rival anymore. It’s not about playing your best together to beat other teams and win districts. It’s about how you played regardless of the outcome. For example. We played a game against our biggest rival. This school is only a few miles away and we’ve had a rivalry for years. I throw out my starting lineup. One small change. Player A is not in the lineup because of recent struggles. Player B has been playing out of his mind and therefor gets a rare start. We end up beating our rival 7-3 on a heck of an effort. Player B doesn’t do a whole lot. I think he was 1-4 with a K and single. Player B is estatic we won. Player A is a late inning substitution. Meanwhile, we are getting to the bus and Player A is pouting and Player A’s dad is mad. He approaches me in a fit of anger and says, “Coach, why didn’t you put my son in the game earlier? Why didn’t he start?” My first response was are you kidding? We just beat our biggest rival and you are upset because your son didn’t start? Give me a break. Let’s enjoy our win. He was just part of the team that beat ____. (this is the kind of win that’ll keep my job for three more years even if we lose all our other games.)
Last year, we were a decent team. We didn’t have the studs and we didn’t have the work ethic. I had a team of lazy kids that relied on talent to get through younger levels. Now at the HS level they were struggling. Instead of working harder, they just complained about how bad their stats were. My average is .250. I should be hitting .300. Stats drive motivation. It’s insane what kids will do to make sure they get a hit. At the college level and the HS level guys would question whether or not their hits were errors or singles. Or if the runs they gave up were earned. And if you wouldn’t change it for them, it was the end of the world.
The age we live in has completely changed. I’m only 25 and I’ve been fortanute enough to be a lot of places in the game. I’ve played overseas and all over the US. I know a lot of guys that made it and a lot of guys that didn’t. The guys that were marginal and worked their butts off made it. The guys that were studs and didn’t work hard usually quit college ball within a year. It was to difficult. You had an exception here or there.
I get so frustrated with all the stats becuase our 6th and 7th graders see all that and realize that stats will determine how far they make it in the game. This shouldn’t be the case.
When I recruited collegiately, I got all kinds of recommondations about kid C and kid D. They had amazing stats. Then I went and watched them play and saw no heart or hustle. I saw talent. I watched for intangibles and broke down swings, mechanics, and interaction with a team. If we are investing a scholarship, I’m not going to pull a kid in that pouts when he is given an error and reaches on an error. It’s getting more and more difficult to find coaches who instill these beliefs into their kids. Much less the star kids.
That kind of rambled, but that’s my basis for how stats have ruined the game. Kids are no longer playing to win. If we lose and I go 2-4, it’s ok. In fact, my girlfriend and I are going for icecream because I got two hits. If we win and I go 0-4, I’m going to pout and you better not stop me. Rejoice in the wins. Regroup with the loses. Most of all, learn to play the game and work together. Realize that you are part of something that is bigger than you.
Instead of rejoicing in a victory with 23 other guys, one guy ruins it for the team and pouts. That makes everyone mad because one person has to be bigger than the team.
Yes stats are good for what we use them for. But to many stats and basing everything off of stats instead of other things is a trap many people fall in to.
My argument isn’t going to change your mind NY, but I hope it enlightens you into the way the game is changing and being played in the youth levels. These kids are glorified because they hit .589 when their dad keeps book. No one else on the team has an average of .400. Wonder what’s going on there…. It all starts in T ball.
Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.
by 306008 on
Oct 5, 2008 10:01 PM EDT
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i should also say
that when we go sign someone this offseason, I’ll be the first to run to see what their batting average was. How many walks they had and stolen bases. What kind of power numbers did they put up? But I won’t make a decision solely on that.
Then I’ll start breaking down the player and the intangibles. I’ll try to find tape of their swings and defense to see what I see and see what GMDM sees. I’ll look to see how they run the bases. I’ll try to find out what the reputation is around the league. I’ll project secretly and see what happens at the end of the year.
It works for me.
Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.
by 306008 on
Oct 5, 2008 10:04 PM EDT
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I have a coupe questions
when we go sign someone this offseason, I’ll be the first to run to see what their batting average was. How many walks they had and stolen bases. What kind of power numbers did they put up? But I won’t make a decision solely on that. Then I’ll start breaking down the player and the intangibles. I’ll try to find tape of their swings and defense to see what I see and see what GMDM sees. I’ll look to see how they run the bases. I’ll try to find out what the reputation is around the league.
1. First it appears that you don’t really think that stats are worthless. Second, if stats do have meaning (both for description and prediction), shouldn’t we look to the most valuable, meaningful and reliable stats? The research of robotic, computer-like, never-played-the-game stat geeks has discovered a great deal about how meaningful various stats and metrics are. For instance, looking at OBP and SLG tells you a lot about a hitter. Looking at his batting average tells you very little. So good, sound statistical analysis appears to have significant value, no?
2. How would you go about breaking down a player’s intangibles? How much do we know about any player’s intangibles? For the vast majority of them, we know very, very little. And most of it is rumor, conjecture and guesswork. The mainstream media’s conventional wisdom about a player’s grit, fire, drive, and competitiveness is as about as reliable as a crack whore. My points are these: intangibles may be very important, but we know almost nothing about those intangibles. We can guess at it. We can over-extrapolate from very little information. But we know very little. And if a player has poor intangibles, but his performance has been good, how much should we care about those intangibles. For instance, let’s say that J.P. is right about Dunn and he doesn’t really like baseball that much. He has managed to have an OPS around .900 year in and year out despite his distaste for the game. So how should one factor that particular intangible into an evaluation of Dunn?
Look, I think tools-based analysis (scouting) is an important and necessary part of the evaluation of any player. But that has to be coupled with performance-based analysis (stats). For players on which there is less data (and less reliable data), like inexperienced major leaguers and minor leaguers, then tools-based analysis is much more important. For players with more major league experience, performance-based analysis is much more important. But to say that either of those modes of analysis is “worthless” seems bizarre at best and an exercise willful ignorance and ludicrous anti-intellectualism at worst.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by NYRoyal on
Oct 5, 2008 10:29 PM EDT
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Statistical analysis does not negate a team approach
Sabermetric analysis of stats has not ruined youth baseball. If little leaguers are not playing to win and care more about their own individual stats, it isn’t because of Bill James or the statheads at Baseball Prospectus. If they aren’t playing to win, it is because they have a bad coach or they are just selfish little shits.
Somehow you’ve gone from “stats are worthless,” which I believe was a commentary on the value of statistical analysis, to “stats have ruined the game.” Do you think that professional baseball players aren’t playing to win and only care about their individual stats? I see no evidence of that. Is this problem only seen in youth baseball? This seems pretty silly. Advanced statistical analysis is not affecting how little leaguers play the game.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by NYRoyal on
Oct 5, 2008 10:12 PM EDT
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do you have any statistics to back that up?
Sabermetric analysis of stats has not ruined youth baseball.
Do you think that professional baseball players aren’t playing to win and only care about their individual stats? I see no evidence of that.
Advanced statistical analysis is not affecting how little leaguers play the game.
whether the gaining prevelance of statistical analysis is at the root of the problem that 306008 has witnessed, i imagine we can all agree that the buck really stops with the parents and coaches (or doesn’t stop, as the case may be).
by benfunke on
Oct 6, 2008 1:16 PM EDT
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the xPRICK of jr. high baseball players has risen by 37% since the publication of Moneyball
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on
Oct 6, 2008 1:56 PM EDT
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I think this is right up there with changing the brand of shoes Royals position players wear
Hey, they weren’t hitting well in the old shoes, so they might as well try new shoes. It couldn’t hurt. Well, it could, but you might as well try. Just don’t expect much to come of it.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by NYRoyal on
Oct 3, 2008 6:20 PM EDT
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I think if we were hearing some scary stuff about
Barnett’s suggested approach, we could seriously think about an “average” hitting coach bringing the team’s performance up minimally. As it is…I wouldn’t expect this to make any difference.
A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.
by NHZ on
Oct 4, 2008 1:05 AM EDT
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Denbo
You guys are kidding right? Hillman fired his ass when they were working together in Japan. They might be friends, but…it’s not happening.
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
by doublestix on
Oct 4, 2008 2:02 AM EDT
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Denbo probably doesn't teach the bunt the right way
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on
Oct 4, 2008 11:51 AM EDT
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or he leads the leagues second to worst offense.
If the Royals weren’t in the way, it’d be the worst.
Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.
by 306008 on
Oct 5, 2008 8:41 AM EDT
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