Billy Butler and Alex Gordon in 2009
by Freneau on Oct 22, 2008 12:53 PM EDT
in Kansas City Royals News
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PrintWhile the state of the Royal pitching staff looks the best it has in over a decade going into next season, the prospects for the offense remain murky. Although the Royals have something of a "core" in place, much of that core has topped out at being merely adequate, and barring another Aviles-like revelation or a confluence of career years from multiple players (which does sometimes happen), it'll be up to Alex Gordon and Billy Butler to drive the offense to the next level.
So can they do it?
I've had the opportunity to take a sneak peek at the Bill James projections for 2009 and am saddened to report that at least one computer model sees more of the same:
| PAs | BA | OBP | SLG | 2Bs | HRs | |
| Butler's Actual 2008 | 478 | .275 | .324 | .400 | 22 | 11 |
| Butler's Projected 2009 | 563 | .295 | .357 | .460 | 35 | 18 |
You could label this, optimistically, a mild breakout I suppose, although considering Butler will provide no defense and baserunning (factors which can be over-rated, to be sure) it's not a thrilling line. Essentially, in the view of James's system, he'll see marginal improvement in most areas, but no more. Sure, a sixty point jump in SLG would be nice, but that's dependent on Butler hitting .295 as well, which might not happen given Butler's size and the natural vagaries of BA. Butler's now accumulated 838 big league plate appearances, so there's not much space for a pure numbers-based projection to graph instant improvement.
| PAs | BA | OBP | SLG | 2Bs | HRs | |
| Alex Gordon's Actual 2008 | 571 | .260 | .351 | .432 | 35 | 16 |
| Alex Gordon's Projected 2009 | 535 | .273 | .358 | .467 | 40 | 20 |
Something of a strange projection here, with Gordon seeing a mild (I need synonyms for this word) power spike, albeit one somewhat negated by some lost playing time. Alex racked up 601 PAs in '07 and 571 in '08, so perhaps there's some rudimentary logic in just knocking him down another 30 or so for '09. Nevertheless, the rate stats are still less than thrilling.
The impossible dream, a Royal slugging .500.
You can order the 2009 Bill James Handbook here.
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Its hard to see how any projection would project a dramatic improvement
That isn’t to say it won’t happen though.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Oct 22, 2008 12:59 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
this is a good point
projections naturally will take the middle ground of possibility, taking the high just increases the likelihood of error. Breakouts are always gonna be hard to predict.
I'd take...
a .093 OPS improvement from Butler if it happens 2 years in a row and a .042 improvement from Gordon if it happens 3-4 years in a row. :)
The model needs to be rerun
With Kevin Seitzer as hitting coach.
Then, Billy Butler = Albert Pujols
Whoops, definitely meant
Billy Butler >>> Albert Pujols
Silly mistake…
yea... i guess I am just getting impatient
it seemed like it had been so long since the royals had a supposed stud prospect when these guys emerged…
I'm on board with those #s
maybe this is what you based your predictions on, double, but second half 2008 numbers for AG and BB respectively were: .277/.392/.496 and .305/.341/.476. I don’t think it’s unrealistic to think that some genuine progress was made in the latter half of 2008.
"Greinke and the Brain" (R) (C) TM
by SittinByTheFoulPole on Oct 22, 2008 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions
aren't second-half numbers not that reliable?
although for young players, and gordon post-injury, maybe moreso
I wanna know what love is, I want you to show me
second-half is a better projection for the next year than the first-half, especially for young guys
although Gordon’s sample size is small. Try averaging the second half with the year-long stats. You actually get close to James’ number for Gordon. It’s not a “real” projection, of course.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Oct 22, 2008 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions
both those projections
read to me like significant improvements. I think the disappointment stems from their 2008 batting lines providing the numbers being improved upon.
Remember how bad the team was with Tony Pena Jr starting?
With Aviles there the whole team changed. It’s like they felt that management might actually be trying to win. Plus it didn’t hurt that we weren’t giving away 2 ABs every time through the lineup. Ross Gload and TPJ, I’m staring in your directions. Lineup protection is a myth, but more people on base, lead to more pitches thrown (usually…these guys hack like mad though), lead to more mistakes by pitchers. I think it would be very interesting to see the stats of Billy and Alex, and really everyone with Aviles in the lineup starting June 6th. After all, they were roughly .500 with him in the lineup.
Don't have any individual stats, but I remember looking at this and finding
that the team averaged a FULL RUN from June 6th until the end of the year than they did from the beginning until June 5th.
Here is the data:
Beg thru June 5: 60 games, 218 runs, 3.63 runs per game
June 6th thru End: 102 games, 473 runs, 4.64 runs per game
Of course, replacing TPJ with Aviles only constitutes a portion of this difference, and to attribute improvements in other players to TPJ’s benching is likely inaccurate, or, at best, merely unprovable conjecture. The stuff that sabermetrics can prove (Aviles over TPJ) was probably worth about .5 to .6 runs per game just by itself. (That’s a guess – I didn’t run any data on it)
Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!
Not exactly what you’re looking for, but one good “total value” estmate (including offense and defense) has Aviles as about 51 runs better than TPJ overall this year. That’s about 5 wins.
I do think that Aviles luck would have started to level out. Having said that, his PrOPS of .737 would still make him an above average player given average defense at SS — that’s worth about $9-10 million a year on the FA market.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Oct 22, 2008 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Sorry... MORE than $9-10 million/year
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Oct 22, 2008 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Hmmm
well, it’s an improvement. They’re young. well, Billy is
Oddly, I usually find James’ projections to be overly optimistic. My amateur ones have Gordon just a bit better than this.
I will say, RR, that while I don’t want to be one of those people always accusing you of being overly negative, that I think to say that an .825 OPS from a third baseman is disappointing shows a bit of a distorted view of what third basemen can be expected to do these days. Yes, A-Rod and Evan Longoria set the bar high, but really, if Gordon “only” does that, that’s going to around 1.5-2 wins above average for an AL hitter. (Keep in mind that using SLG/OPS overstates the value of HRs vs. other hits, and also underavalues walks, which Gordon does obtain - slugging .500 is cool, but overrated). add in the positional adjustments as per Tango, and you get 1.75-2.25 WAA, or 3.73-4 WAR. That doesn’t include his excellent baserunning 14-18 last year, 9-11 this year. Yeah, I’d rather have 10 more home runs, but that’s not nothing. Given the relative weights of SB/CS, Alex’s 9 for 11 was about as valuable as Bobby Abreu’s 22-33.
The problem with Alex is his defense — this year, his defense was so bad that is cost them more than a games worth of runs. In other words, if he was a league average LF/RF or 1B they’d be better off. Still, he was +4 UZR in 2007, so we don’t really know how he’ll turn out.
I’m really not setting expectations low… I do think that while doublestix expectations isn’t out to lunch, it’s on the high side of a projections. Are you going to be jubilant if Alex “only” OPSes .885, or will you just be satisfied? Because coupled with even slightly below average defense, that’s a superstar performance from a 3B, whether he media recognizes it or not.
/preaching
Butler’s so young, who knows. From what I’ve read and seen, Zips and PECOTA, and probably even Marcels are better than James’ projections. Don’t know why that is. Maybe he (or better, his "system") is better at looking backwards than looking forwards…
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Oct 22, 2008 2:23 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Wow.. I did not realize that Gordo's D has slipped that much
I do see your point about these numbers not actually being that bad, and even relatively good.
I guess it goes back to what I keep saying whenever we discuss this lineup, from Gathright to Teahen to Buck and on: somewhere, you need to actually have good hitters around all these OK guys to make it work. If Gordon or Butler is the team’s best hitter with these type of mid .800 OPS numbers, then I fear we’re still talking about a not very good team. Sure, that doesn’t mean “GORDON SUCKS !!!!111” or anything, but, it’s still kinda a downer.
I’m convinced Gordon is what he is: he has contact/BA issues that are much larger than was thought when he was a prospect, and even if he eventually develops to 30 HRs, its still gonna be a hole in his game. His upside is as a three true outcomes beast with sub-par D rather than as something beyond that. That’s aight, I loved Dean Palmer. Butler however, still has, at least in my mind, this possibility of being a true baller at the plate, like Manny Ramirez or Pujols or Arod.
I agree on the contact issues with Gordon
still, if he “just” becomes Jack Cust but with an offensive position, um, that’s a really, really good player. Even though I actually think the contact issues are holding back the HR/SLG stuff at the moment.
Ron Shandler does say that contact ability generally peaks at 27-28, so it’s not like there isn’t any hope. He was better this year.
I like Butler’s potential, still. Wish he’d h it the ball in the air. Manny’s defense is so bad that he’s as overrated as Jeter, but I’d take that… Let’s put the DH issue is this way, though… Assuming average defense for Alex (for simplicities sake), if Butler had Aviles’ offensive this year (that is, much better than Gordon), he’d still be worth more than a game less. That’s how good he has to be if he only DHs… a lot better.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Oct 22, 2008 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions
"simplicity's"
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Oct 22, 2008 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions
"Aviles' offensive numbers"
im the worst
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Oct 22, 2008 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions
One thing that might make a difference for me
is that I’ve bought in (and perhaps too much) into Tom Tango’s positional adjustments.
How would we feel about Gordon’s offense if he was a second baseman? I think we’d feel a lot better… Well, here are Tango’s adjustments (values are wins per season, multiply by 10 [or, if you’re anal, by 10.5] to get runs).
DH: -1.75
1B: -1.25
LF/RF: -0.75
CF/2B/3B: 0.25
SS: .75
C: 1.25
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Oct 22, 2008 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Sorry to comment yet again
I also think that this is why you’re right in stressing, from the beginning, that “power on the corners, defense up the middle” isn’t going to cut it for the Royals. Ironically, no matter how much they talk about “defense up the middle,” since most teams don’t use objective measures for defense, they don’t have a clue how to get it. However, finally, 50 years after Branch “I Hate Baseball” Rickey’s Life Magazine article “”http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/btf/pages/essays/rickey/goodby_to_old_idea.htm" target="new">Goodbye to Some Old Baseball Ideas," most teams seem to have caught up with him and figured something out: Walks + HRs = good. “Maybe that Dunn kid is worth something after all.” It’s not 1997, when the As can get Jaha and Stairs on the cheap and laugh while other teams overpay for guys who, no matter how fast they are, can’t carry their jocks.
believe me, I’m the worst kid of baseball fan. I’ve “matured” into being able to enjoy tight pitching duels like this years ALCS Game 7, but I LOVE fat guys getting on base and smashing the ball out of the park. But like I said, most GMs (strangely excepting former BIlly Beane acolyte J. P. Ricciardi) have too. So the Royals can’t expect to play that game on the market. Even if they could afford Adam Dunn at 3/48, he’ll probably get more than that. Moreover, I no longer think they should pay that much for him.
And that goes back to the point Sky Kalkman made in another thread: fielding is the new OBP. Look at the As. They’re starting one classic “Moneyball” type player (Jack MFin Cust), and 8 Endy Chavez’s, basically. Mark Ellis is the new Matt Stairs. Sure, I bet Beane would love to have Teixeira, Dunn, and Evan Longoria in the heart of his order…. but he can’t afford it on the FA market, and the Endys and the Cust are good enough to ensure he never gets a high enough draft pick to get a Hosmer, Braun, Longoria, etc.
I don’t know whether or not DMGM understands the value of OBP. However, increasingly, the only way I can explain the Guillen contract (other than the horrifying thought that GMDM thought Guillen was the same player as he was in 2005 — in which case, the Royals are probably fucked) is that DMGM didn’t take defense into account — a run lost on the corners is as valuable as one lost up the middle. That’s fixable.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Oct 22, 2008 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions
yep
“power on the corners, defense up the middle” is pretty lame when you have no power, not much of a budget, and have a bunch of bad defensive players
but other than that its working
I still say
get a mix of discarded defenderes like Ryan Langerhans and discareded sluggers like Russell Branyan. Could probably get both those guys for less than Ross Gload money and have a decent 4th outfielder and a cheap 1B/DH partner for Butler (if Shealy bombs, which he almost certainly will, and Kila needs more time). Heck 3TO (Branyan) could be a 3 corners backup guy. He’s a poor man’s Eric Hinske.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Oct 22, 2008 5:46 PM EDT up reply actions
you'll all just have to trust me
I have a university education and I am a native speaker of English.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Oct 22, 2008 5:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Branyan's reputation is that he's one of the worst defenders in the history of baseball
If the numbers bear this out, wouldn’t this limit his value as a player? I’m still not particularly interested in any DH-only players for 2009.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Oct 22, 2008 5:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Depends on who's left on the roster
it does limit his value. As a part-time, cheap player, that’s fine if there’s room. He’d probably be able to outperform Jose Guillen’s 2008,. but that’s not saying much — and given the presence of Guillen, Butler, and Gload on the roster, there a place for him. I’d take him over Gload any day, though, even if Gload was paid the minimum. I was just pointing out that such players are “gettable” as close-to-free talents.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Oct 22, 2008 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes, they are gettable
I just think the issue for the Royals is timing. I think you get that kind of guy as an important bench piece when you are gearing up for contention. Where the Royals are currently situated, it makes more sense to maximize the PA’s of guys like Butler, Shealy and Ka’aihue (at the appropriate time). As a general team-building principle, I think you are right. For a rebuilding team with some question-mark-depth at 1B/DH, we need to take a look at and develop those guys at this point, rather than add a solid DH-only free agent.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Oct 22, 2008 6:17 PM EDT up reply actions
agreed
I’ve flip-flopped on Gload again, though. If the issue is playing time for guys like Butler (#1 priority), Shealy, and possibly Kila, then there’s no reason for Gload to be around. If Shealy gets hurt in a basketball game or is part of some trade and/or Kila needs more time, then I’d rather bring in someone like Branyan or Hinske (Hinske, in limited time at first over the past few years, is slighly above average) to fill the “Gload” role than Gload.
When I’m a millionaire (and I’m working on my Ph.D. in philosophy, remember, so it’s definitely going to happen.) I’m going to get “pay” services so I can get Dewan’s updated daily and have MGL to call me each week to go over shifts in UZR . Until then, I’m stuck with free stuff on the net. As you’d expect, all the Branyan stuff is limited sample size, and hard to judge since they have him listed as but “Russ” and “Russell.” From 2004-2007 (first half or so) UZR hates Branyan in right, sees him as average (or slightly above) in left, Gordon 2008 at third, and average at first. Caveats about 1B defensive stats granted, UZR HATES Gload at first over the same period — -9 over 89 games, or -15/150. Shealy rates as above average both in CO and KC.
The 2007 ZR/RZR stuff Justin Inaz did has small sample sizes for Russ at everything. Mostly, he comes out to a Guillen-esque -20 at everything. Gload actually comes out at 3.5 in 2007 with this stuff. And in RZR/ZR 2007 is at +6.2 last year (in 200 less innings than Gload).
2008 Inaz’s stuff is different (doesn’t separate positions, but we can figure it out), but actually has Branyan in the + defensively… Yeah, right. Shealy is +1.7 in 79 innings. Gload is -7.1. Hmmm… I know this stuff has a hard time accouting for “receiving,” but I must say I can find no compelling reason for Ross Gload to be on the roster, Branyan or not.
Hey, maybe if Branyan is the only option, and really sucks at first, Trey will actually let BIlly play there! Win win win!
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Oct 22, 2008 6:48 PM EDT up reply actions
clarification: didn't fix this paragraph
The 2007 ZR/RZR stuff Justin Inaz did has small sample sizes for Russ at everything. Mostly, he comes out to a Guillen-esque -20 at everything. Gload actually comes out at 3.5 in 2007 with this stuff. And in RZR/ZR 2007 is at +6.2 last year (in 200 less innings than Gload).
Should be
The 2007 ZR/RZR stuff Justin Inaz did has small sample sizes for Russ at everything. I wouldn’t be able to extrapolate much from it, other than he’s still Guillen-esque everywhere but first. Gload actually comes out at 3.5 in 2007 with this stuff. For Shealy RZR/ZR 2007 is at +6.2 last year (in 200 less innings than Gload).
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Oct 22, 2008 6:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Sample sizes
In my personal top 10 list of most annoyingly repeated phrases on this site is “you shouldn’t draw big conclusions from only one year of stats.” Typically this has been used in reference to pitching or hitting stats. Those are, after all, the stats that get talked about 99% of the time. But shouldn’t this apply to fielding stats too? I keep hearing all this talk about how Gordon’s defense is poor because of 2008 fielding metrics. But it wasn’t poor according to 2007 fielding metrics. The same goes for Teahen. Now, when you see stats get worse for a 35-year-old, there’s good reason to believe that this is a real decline which will probably continue. When you see stats drop for a guy in his mid-20’s, what are we to make of that? That his skills are pematurely diminishing? That doesn’t pass the laugh test. We don’t really know what is going on. Has he lost skills, or focus, or work ethic, or injury, or is it bad luck, or do these metrics do an unreliable job of measuring the performance element in question? I don’t know. That is why, in the very least, I think we need to look at as much good data as possible. That means multiple metrics (at least RZR, UZR and Dewan’s +/-), and certainly multiple years. Thus endeth my rant.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Oct 22, 2008 8:26 PM EDT up reply actions
I totally agree, especially about Gordon
I’m totally on board with the “defensvie stats need several seasons to indicate true talent” thing that’s been beat into me since the minute I started reading about new defensive stats. Hence the “Gordon 2008” thing. Since I was going to make fun of other Royals’ defense, I wanted to spread the love around since I’m usually defending Gordon. So more data is needed. At least BIS and STATS derived info seems to agree on Gordon (some players, like Ichiro in CF, they really depart on) being good last year, bad this year.
Here’s something interesting: If, using Inaz’s total values, Alex Gordon had had the exact same season offensively that he did in 2008 (25.7 runs), but combined it with his 2007 defensive performance (5.4 runs+ 2.0 2008 pos adjustment = 33.1), he would have been more valuble than Adam Dunn this year? (23.8 CIN + 6.7 ARI = 30.5)?
Gives one sense of how defense can help/hurt a player. A run saved is equal to a run earned…
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Oct 22, 2008 9:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Could It Be
That getting his nose destroyed on his last attempt of the 2007 season affected him in 2008? Convincing yourself to stay down on a hot smash is hard enough without that memory in your head. No, she did not say that.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Oct 23, 2008 8:27 PM EDT up reply actions
I think NYRoyal and Gopherballs are right
to say that we just don’t know yet. He was actually pretty good last year, according to the +/- runs systems I’ve seen (betwen 4-6 runs above average). Maybe he’s just in a “slump.” After next year, I think, we’ll have a better idea. He he busts out another 14 or whatever, well, maybe it’s time to try to OF. But if he’s -8, that’s not great, but given the lack of anyone else in the near future, it’s doable - that’s not bad enough that moving him to another position would be an advantage.
And like I said, there are too many factors. He could easily be average or +5 again.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Oct 23, 2008 9:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Not overly worried about Gordan's defense at third.
He wont be playing there in two years anyway. He will most likely be in the outfield by then if not sooner if we trade DDJ, Teahen or Guillen. (which is pretty likely)
Go Royals!
oops
add in the positional adjustments as per Tango, and you get 1.75-2.25 WAA, or 3.73-4 WAR.
should be “3.75-4.25 WAR” on that last part.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
A 93-point OPS improvement for a guy going from his age 22 season to his age 23 season is a very nice improvement
…with more improvements expected in the following years. Gordon’s improvement is smaller. The projection might be right and he might be settling in to being a merely above average 3B. Or he might have a breakout season. It’s really hard to say.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
Offensively, he was already an above average 3B this year
I think that after A-Rod, Jeter, et. al., that people have a distorted view of what “good offense” on the left side of the infield is. I know I did, until fairly recently. A-Rod and Longoria are still there. Mora’s there, but he’ sold, and even worse on defense than Alex was this year. Cabrera and Braun were worse on D, and aren’t coming back. Ryan Zimmerman doesn’t look much better on offense. Mike Lowell is done. Alex is already a better hitter than Joe Crede, was a slightly better hitter than Beltre this year (although Beltre’s defense makes him one of the most underrated players in the game — about 3 wins better than Gordon this year), Chone Figgins (smirk), and so on…
Yes, I adjusted for park/league context.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Oct 22, 2008 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Offensively, he was already an above average 3B this year
I know. And I’m just saying that if BJ’s projection holds, he’d remain an above average 3B and wouldn’t yet be up to the next adjective threshold (a “very good” or a “great” 3B) — depending, of course — upon where these threshholds lie. It’s hard to be excited about a projected .825 OPS from a corner position, even if that position is the least offensive of the four. But I recognize that it is good for that position.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Oct 22, 2008 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions
I've personally gone far enough over to the dark side
that I’d probably get more excited about a .380 OBP than a .500 SLG from Alex at this point. I think the James projection might overdo (a bit) overconfident with the power, undersell the improvements in walk rate. Which is all good.
I wish Zips would hurry up. Seems to me they’re usually more accurate. And free. Although I guess James’ projections were on fangraphs this last year.
Note that
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Oct 22, 2008 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Projections
It’s hard for me to get too up or down about any single projection. I feel the same way about projection systems as I do about comprehensive (or semi-comprehensive) metrics. One is pretty good, but I’d rather see the complete or average picture from a half dozen. It’s hard to trust one metric’s description of a player’s performance, just as it is hard to trust one system’s projection of a player’s near future. I’ll be very interested in seeing what BJ, ZiPS, PECOTA and CHONE have to say in toto (as well as any other good projection systems of which I am not aware).
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Oct 22, 2008 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, fangraphs rules that way
I just recently discovered that (at some point) they have James, Zips, Marcels, CHONE, and Miner all there. If all those systems projected PAs, it would be even better.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Oct 22, 2008 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions
i was looking at the 3B's in the AL a couple days ago
And I was really shocked as to how weak the position is. Assuming his defense is about average next year, it wouldn’t take THAT much of an improvement for him to be the third best player at the position in the AL next year.
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
Optimistically,
if one of those two merely improves as Bill James expects, while the other one makes a leap and improves by a lot more, I’d be tickled to death.
Which one is more likely to do that in 09? Well, previously, I had thought Butler would be the stud, but now I’m not so sure it isn’t going to be Gordon instead. He’s already in the 900 OPS range vs righties, if he can improve vs lefties to just merely holding his own against them, then look out. The argument for Butler is that he still is two full years of development ahead of Gordon – but that is mitigated somewhat by the condition he is in, IMHO. Would love to see him decrease his body fat %, and increase his flexibility as much as he can, in other words, get a bit more athletic. All the other tools are already there, I just get the sneaking feeling that he has been allowed to get by the way he is because of his God-given skills, and at this point needs to be pushed to work a lot harder in order to tap his full potential. Don’t get me wrong – I still love the kid, just think he needs to realize that talent alone is not enough, and that he needs to start working hard on all aspects of being an athlete.
Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!
By sentencing him to DH
they’re ratcheting up the offensive level he needs to reach in order to be even an average player by half a win a season. Maybe he’s be a -5 defender, who knows. I mean, really, who the f-ck knows, since it’s more important to get Gload and JoGui playing time than maybe Butler costing the team it’s wild card chances this year at first. Well, they ARE below replacement level sunk costs, Xenu knows we can’t make it that obvious that GMDM’s awfujl contracts to both already outstripped two good years of Gil Meche.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Oct 22, 2008 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Sigh...
Maybe it’s because I was spoiled growing up watching “The Brett years”, but it seems as though we’ve all been waiting forever for the Royals to develop a hitter…I mean a HITTER. Someone who gets promoted to the bigs, seriously mashes the ball, and never looks back; a guy who you more or less expect to be an All-Star game regular. This is probably why we have all been so excited by Aviles, as modest as his success has been…we’re starved!
That’s why it’s hard to look at those projections for Gordon and Butler and not feel at least mildly disappointed . This is especially true as we see other picks from the last few years such as Braun and Longoria come in and dominate…it’s just not uplifting.
Greinke!
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Oct 22, 2008 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions
How dare you!
When Kila bats .850 with 126 home runs you’ll be saying otherwise!
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
if he does
no one will notice, or have you forgotten
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Oct 22, 2008 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions
I have not
I read that a few days ago (no kidding) to make sure I would remember the great Mike Sweeney.
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
I Actually Did
Overlook how good Sweeney really was. Unfortunately, playing for a mediocre at best team in KCMO makes publicity hard to come by. Combine that with chronic injuries and no one outside the Metro area realizes just how good Sweeney was at his peak.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Oct 22, 2008 7:06 PM EDT up reply actions
+1
I never hated Sweeney or anything, but I didn’t appreciate him properly, even in his prime. SO maybe I’m trying to atone now. I like pointing out to people that even in seasons where he missed significant chunks, he was still very, very good.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Oct 22, 2008 7:12 PM EDT up reply actions
I am very tentatively going to suggest
that the projection might miss low for Gordon. I feel like Alex was making some significant progress in the second half before he got hurt, and that his overall line would look a lot better—and be a more positive influence on his projection—if it weren’t for that ill-timed injury.
The Butler one looks about right. Billy’s young, and I think I’ve mentioned before that his IsoP numbers in the minor leagues have never been overwhelming. Best case scenario is one where he’s an all-star caliber first basemen thanks to equal contributions from his power, plate discipline, and quick bat. In the minors he was well over .300 several times, and that’s the kind of hitter he’ll need to be to be a big plus given his lack of defensive value and work-in-progress secondary skills.
A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.
+1 on both
I see Gordon’s OPS range (although I should stop using OPS) as .815-.885.
Butler’s like Delmon Young, but a bit better. And, from the looks of things, better defense.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Oct 23, 2008 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions
I Want Butler
To become Adam Dunn with better contact and a little less power. Probably better defense, too.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Oct 23, 2008 8:30 PM EDT up reply actions
that would be cool
but I think he’s just a better “pure hitter” than Dunn. I’m no scout, but his numbers don’t say tons of power yet like Dunn’s always did. Butler’s more of a line drive guy. I see him being more like Good Travis Hafner — fat guy, bad defense, smashes the ball all around the park.
I’ll take that.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Oct 23, 2008 9:54 PM EDT up reply actions
that's probably a better comp
right-handed
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Oct 23, 2008 11:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Without The Bad
Back, please.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Oct 26, 2008 1:58 AM EDT up reply actions
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