RR Royals #6 Prospect

by doublestix on Oct 25, 2008 12:38 AM EDT Comment 31 comments

#1 Mike Moustakas, 3B
#2 Eric Hosmer, 1B
#3 Daniel Cortes, RHP
#4 Kila Ka'aihue, 1B
#5 Daniel Duffy, LHP
#6 ???

Voting has stalled and Duffy has a pretty fair lead.

Going to take Giavotella off since he hasn't gotten almost any votes the past two times. He'll be back on for the next poll, just want to see where other prospects stand.

Short scouting reports:

Daniel Gutierrez | RHP | 21-years-old | 6-foot-1, 185 pounds
-Late round draft pick in '05 with electric arm. Fastball is in the low 90's and has been higher. Curveball is a plus pitch for him. Changeup self admittedly needs some work. Might have best mix of stuff and command in system.

Tim Melville | RHP | 18-years-old | 6-foot-5, 205 pounds
-Extremely projectable with present stuff. Already 91-94 with chance for plus curve and change. Scouts love his long term fastball projection, think he could throw very hard.

Mike Montgomery | LHP | 19-years-old | 6-foot-5, 180 pounds
-Long, athletic, projectable southpaw that scouts can dream on. Fastball currently 89-92, with very good changeup already, and a slow curveball. Also has a palmball. A couple improvements in mechanics will help his long term stock.

Carlos Rosa | RHP | 24-years-old | 6-foot-1, 185 pounds
-Smallish righty with great fastball. Ranges 92-95 with a little sink. Plus hard slider, his best pitch. Good change but inconsistent. Might be a bullpen guy long term. Nearly big league ready.

Blake Wood | RHP | 23-years-old | 6-foot-5, 240 pounds
-Big, workhorse type frame. Fastball in the low-90's that runs up to 95. Plus curveball with a noticeably improved changeup this year. Command still needs work, but showed flashes of brilliance at times this year.

Poll

Who is the Royals #6 prospect? (players listed in alphabetical order)

Daniel Gutierrez, RHP

5 votes

Tim Melville, RHP

36 votes

Mike Montgomery, LHP

10 votes

Carlos Rosa, RHP

43 votes

Blake Wood, RHP

1 votes

Other (specify)

0 votes

95 votes | Poll has closed

1 recs | Comment 31 comments

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Comments

Rosa and Duffy are close, IMO.

Making Rosa the obvious candidate here. Although, I suppose Melville’s potential could earn him some votes, as it appears to be thus far.

Judging from the vote totals, I think that we, as a community, are generally underrating Rosa and/or overrating the younger, higher-impact arms.

by rockchalk on Oct 25, 2008 2:09 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I like Melville, but...

…in addition to him being obviously all-potential with no professional performance record, there is also some disagreement among the scouts and analysts about how high his ceiling is. Some see tremendous ace potential and others see him more as inherently limited. His problematic mechanics don’t help.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Oct 25, 2008 4:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yep...

i think the top 3 are clear, but the next four or even five are extremely close for me. on any given day I could see myself saying the #4 guy is duffy, melville, kila, or rosa.

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Oct 25, 2008 2:14 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

before i vote

What exactly is Rosa’s health histroy? He had TJ’s a couple years ago, and he had two unrelated arm injuries this summer? Do we know if there are additional injuries in the last couple years? I think you have to take Rosa here if you believe he’ll stay healthy.

by kcdc1 on Oct 25, 2008 10:45 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

this is why we should put him in the pen fulltime.

Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.

by 306008 on Oct 25, 2008 7:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Rosa,

i think he is the obvious choice here, he will be the next one to see the bigs out of this group.. (and he already has and did well..) so, i’d put him infront of Melville.

"I can resist everything but temptation." - oscar wylde

by cfizzle on Oct 25, 2008 11:01 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

melville is like the susan lucci of these things

by royalsreview on Oct 25, 2008 3:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I like him more than I like her

The concept of progress acts as a protective mechanism to shield us from the terrors of the future. - Collected sayings of Muad'Dib

by buddyball on Oct 25, 2008 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I bet he's starting to re-think his decison to sign with the Royals

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Oct 25, 2008 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

it's crap like this that makes Dayton say the fans need to do better

between us and the young guys constantly making excuses, he’s doing a heckuva job

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Oct 25, 2008 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

why would he rethink the decision?

Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.

by 306008 on Oct 25, 2008 7:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Twas a joke

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Oct 25, 2008 8:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I like Melville over Rosa for the reason that as a prospect

Melville is considered a top talent. BA has him as 3rd closest HS to the major. His upside is much higher than Rosa’s. I do have concerns with Rosa and his health. If we are considering who has the highest potential, Melville is better than Rosa.

by daveyork on Oct 26, 2008 5:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

+1

This is mostly why I have been voting for Melville over Ka’aihue, Duffy, and Rosa. Rosa’s ceiling is probably as a #2/3 starter. Melville has a legit chance at being a #1 pitcher someday. That alone makes him the higher-ranked prospect in my view, despite his lack of experience.

by DarthYoshi on Oct 26, 2008 6:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think when ranking prospects, you have to look at more than just best case scenario ceiling

That is definitely important, but I think equally important is how likely it is that they’ll reach that ceiling, and even how likely it is that the player will ever be a good major leaguer. A player who has performed well in the high minors has shown that he’s closer to his ceiling than a teenager who has little or no professional experience.

And there is significant disagreement out there about how high Melville’s ceiling is. More than a few scouts and analysts don’t think he has an ace ceiling.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Oct 26, 2008 6:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not saying ceiling is the only thing to look at

…but I think in Melville’s case, it outweighs his lack of experience. I probably shouldn’t have used the word “alone” in my last post. Rosa is a known quantity, relatively speaking, but I don’t think there is much question that Melville represents a higher ceiling than Rosa. That, combined with Rosa’s injury history, puts Melville ahead of Rosa in my book. I think we probably just disagree on whether to defer to upside or track record and likelihood in this case.

by DarthYoshi on Oct 26, 2008 8:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

but I don’t think there is much question that Melville represents a higher ceiling than Rosa.

I think there definitely is some question, and I’m not just talking about my own pesonal opinion. The opinion of scouts and analysts is far from unanimous on Melville. Some see him as a possible future ace. Some see him as more of a middle-of-the-rotation guy. Some see Rosa as having a #2/#3 ceiling.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Oct 26, 2008 9:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think Rosa could be a 2/3

but i’m scared by the arm. Injuries have been often. Nothing major in the last year… so we’re ok there. Let’s cut his innings and move him to the pen. This may prolong his career and give us more use than him staying in the rotation.

Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.

by 306008 on Oct 26, 2008 9:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think having him work out of the pen and make spot starts might be a good idea for 2009

But I think he can handle mostly full-time SP duty in the long-term. He isn’t one of these always injured guys who you should expect to be injured every year. I don’t think it is quite time to treat him with kid gloves and give up on the much greater help he’d be to the organization as a starter.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Oct 26, 2008 10:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It looks like that projection is what is what it is all about

or else how could Eric Hosmer be the #2 prospect. He has only played a handful of games as a pro. First year guys can only be about projection especially out of HS. It’s all speculation. IMO Melville’s ceiling is higher than Rosa’s. I believe Rosa wil be in the bullpen with his two plus pitches.

by daveyork on Oct 27, 2008 6:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

How many plus pitches do you think the average MLB #2 starting pitcher has?

Certainly no more than two. Two plus pitches plus one or two other decent pitches is the profile of a good MLB starting pitcher. How many plus pitches does Melville project to have if he develops well? Two.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Oct 27, 2008 6:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Carlos Rosa

Melville is all projection at this point. And Carlos has a pretty good projection himself, it’s not like he’s projected to be the next Andy Sonnanstine or Brian Bannister(hmm, all the nn’s and st’s…) or my least favorite line when talking about a prospect: he’s got the smart to be the next Jamie Moyer/Greg Maddux/whatever other pitcher people perceive as not having good stuff.

Carlos has pretty good stuff, is advanced to pitch for the Royals now(even though I think it’s a good idea to ease him in as an RP, maybe he can take over closer role when Soria either 1)goes in the rotation 2)gets hurt 3)gets traded 4)decided that he’s probably a good enough athlete that he’ll be an improvement over Tony Pena Jr. as our utility man.

Melville, from what I’ve read and the limited clip I’ve seen, is not that polished(polished for HS arms is NOT polished, see Nick Adenhart, Rick Porcello, ect…) and he hardly has that lock on #1 starter projection anyway, nobody is proclaiming him to be the best pitching prospect out of HS since Beckett right?

by playingwithfire on Oct 27, 2008 3:41 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

btw

don’t buy kai’aihue and Duffy over Rosa either even though I’ll probably buy both over Melville.

by playingwithfire on Oct 27, 2008 3:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Rosa's injury keeps looking like worse news to me.

Royals tried to trade him for Jacobs. Then the deal fell through because his injury. I hope he can pitch next year.

Go Royals!

by BabyBlues on Oct 27, 2008 5:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

In a way, that is scary

when a team won’t take a guy for Mike Jacobs

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Oct 27, 2008 9:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You may think Jacobs is worthless

I don’t think that a significant portion of the baseball community agrees with you.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Oct 27, 2008 9:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This was obviously a joke

Cf. my actual comments on Jacobs actual worth on the Jacobs thread.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Oct 27, 2008 10:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I know

But these “I’ve read the rumor and I don’t want us acquiring that guy” things often/usually spin out of control. There is a mass psychology thing at work here where the group discourse usually degrades pretty quickly from “I don’t think he’s a good option for the Royals and I wouldn’t give up Rosa for him” to “He’s pretty awful and damn near useful; I’d only give up organizational filler for him and only if Hillman publicly pledges to give him no more than 200 PA’s.”

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Oct 27, 2008 10:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs