Jeremy Affeldt, Free Agent Bargain (No, Seriously)

I was kicking around drafting a post on impending free agent Jeremy Affeldt based on his surprisingly good numbers this year (in a hitter's park), but Fangraphs beat me to it. Affeldt added a couple miles per hour to his fastball and curve, which resulted in a jump in his strikeout rate and drop in his walk rate without affecting his high groundball rate.

While his past struggles might keep the price down, hard throwing lefty relievers who can get righties out tend to do well on the free agent market, so he will not come dirt cheap. But paying a high-leverage reliever mid-leverage reliever money could make for a nice bargain. Relief pitching is obviously not an immediate priority for the Royals, but if the Royals are not going to spend big elsewhere, this is the type of moderate deal that makes the team better without breaking the budget. Plus, adding bullpen depth would allow the Royals to move a reliever for help in a different area of need (which the free agent market likely overvalues).

about 1 year ago Gopherballs 45 comments 0 recs |

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wondered about posting this, but figured you would. I was right

Are you pissed that I’ve nicked your defense/undervalued players/Endy Chavez schtick? Sorry, but I have to steal an identity from someone.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Oct 27, 2008 2:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Not at all

I assumed my defense/undervalued players/Endy Chavez schtick from someone else. His name . . . Creed Bratton.

I am just happy defense/FIP/tRA/win shares etc. get discussed now.

by Gopherballs on Oct 27, 2008 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

wait, win shares are back?

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Oct 27, 2008 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I meant it in the generic sense for wins-based analysis (like WAR)

not the specific Win Shares stat.

by Gopherballs on Oct 27, 2008 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I gotta ask you or someone else

about setting my replacement level. Well, not my personal replacement level. I guess I’m about .75 WAR here, -2.0 WAR at Tangos’ blog.

But I need to re-read his post on it, but maybe you can help me so I don’t ask a question and he comes back with a bunch of math stuff I don’t understand.

For some reason, I thought that 2.0 was replacement level. Since Tango/MGL/that crowd uses 10.5 runs = 1 win, then an average player is 21 RAR. If you add a half-win bonus for AL position players, then 1 war for those guys = 26.25 runs.

BUT, in that post he has on the topic, he has replacement level as 2.25 WAR (2.75 for Al hitters)… not sure how it fits altogether.

It’s just for my homebrew cheapo player evaluation, trying to figure out replacement level, just using woBA-based bRAA, then [free defensive metric of your choice — I finally started a spreadsheet for converting RZR/OOZ to runs], then positional adjustment… but I need to get my replacement level set right.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Oct 27, 2008 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

IGNORE THIS

sorry, gb, I think I finally figured it out

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Oct 27, 2008 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think he will be a bargain

And if I were another team I’d be interested, but we’ve been down this road before and it doesn’t end well.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Oct 27, 2008 2:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, he definitely earned the frustration of Royals fans

If that can be overlooked, he would make a nice target.

by Gopherballs on Oct 27, 2008 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Let's go down the Dayton stereotype checklist

Power reliever…………….check
Christian…………………….check
Former Brave………………

Sorry Jeremy, check back in a couple of years

by Top Ramen on Oct 27, 2008 3:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

but there is also a mini-pipeline from the rockies developing

is there not?

by royalsreview on Oct 27, 2008 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Let's see

Ryan Shealy
Scott D’oh!man
RamRam
Josh Newman
Kip Wells
Jason Smith

Matt Holliday is coming to town! Hooray!

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Oct 28, 2008 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Haven't you read Scouts Honor?

Get pitching back in every trade.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Oct 28, 2008 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Does this mean we can add "former Rockie" to Moore's stereotype acquisition list?

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Oct 28, 2008 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That

And “low OBA”

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Oct 28, 2008 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

we really should keep a database of all DMGM's acquisitions

stats are important, so we can get a profile there, but also all their past teams, so we can get a profile there, too.

Two purposes:

1) evaluate his skill in identifying good players

and, more importantly

2) jokes/refutation of jokes

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Oct 28, 2008 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

what categories do we have so far?

Power reliever
Christian
Former Brave
Former Rockie
Former Mariner (major free agents only)
Defensive wizards who can’t hit and/or whose defense is suspect
Jason Larue

Am I missing anything?

This space intentionally left blank.

by marbotty on Oct 29, 2008 3:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I have some suggestions, but I don't want to start a war

so I’ll leave it up to someone else

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Oct 29, 2008 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

"Free Swinger"

by Top Ramen on Oct 29, 2008 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Billy Butler Replacement

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Oct 29, 2008 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sure, there's are many more

Many of which are inherently contradictory:

Speedy, all-defense, no-hit guys
Fat, slow, bad defense guys
Good character types
Clubhouse cancers

Remember, stereotypes aren’t about truth. They are about taking a small kernel of truth and spining it into something bigger and sillier which has only the most tenuous contract with reality. In short, don’t let the facts get in the way of your stereotypes, Royals fans. Therefore, we really need to add the following:

Brazilians
Alcoholics
Young players
Old players
Tall players
Short players
Whites
Hispanics

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Oct 29, 2008 5:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

that's why we need a database

to see which ones fit the stereotypes, and which ones depart from the mean.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Oct 29, 2008 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's no fun

Stereotypes aren’t about reality. They are about having something you can use to build your dislike/hate around and use to lash out against the object of your derision. You can’t let facts get in the way. The fans of a losing team are supposed to hate their GM. “That idiot just doesn’t know talent. All he wants to acquire are ___________.” Your database would get in the way of classic fan fun. You statheads ruin everything.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Oct 29, 2008 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

well, I'm doing it anyway

unfortunately, b-r doesn’t list religious affiliations or arrest records. So it is going to take a while.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Oct 29, 2008 5:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You will find that he acquired a lot of the following

1. Right handers
2. Left handers

That idiot.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Oct 29, 2008 6:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Luckily for you, Missouri court records are online

Great for checking up on baseball players, family members, and the players from rival universities!

by Top Ramen on Oct 29, 2008 10:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Or OBP

driven by BA

by Top Ramen on Oct 28, 2008 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Great point

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Oct 29, 2008 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

how about national leauge players?

Because everyone know that there are no national leauge players who would play above AAA American Leauge players.

Go Royals!

by BabyBlues on Oct 29, 2008 7:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

For example, we could take our top 25 prosepcts, and beat any NL team right?

Go Royals!

by BabyBlues on Oct 29, 2008 7:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Probably a good value for the money

But should the Royals be investing money on the bullpen? Perhaps they should if they are spending little this offseason. But many appeared to dislike the Royals spending $4M per year on Mahay. Is spending millions on Affeldt a better idea? Considering Moore’s ability to find relievers on the ultra-cheap, does this sound like a wise use of resources?

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Oct 27, 2008 3:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Depends on how much he's worth

I don’t know much about Bale… what are the chances he can be about as good as eiher of those guys for less money?

I guess it all depends on how much Affeldt gets paid.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Oct 27, 2008 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The stats like Bale

I think Bale could/would/should be good enough (not a hell of a lot worse than Affeldt) and will come cheaper.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Oct 27, 2008 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Whatever Mahay does next year

I just think that’s $4M better utilized elsewhere. Obviously, don’t cut him or trade him for crap, but even this year, Nunez/Ramirez/Soria were all better, younger, and cheaper. I don’t see the Royals in desperate need of a left-handed set up guy (slightly overrated commodity, in my opinion, only valuable if your RH relievers really have trouble with lefties), and Bale is good enough, or cheaper.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Oct 27, 2008 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If Mahay is millions spent unwisely

Then let us not compound that error by spending millions on Affeldt.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Oct 27, 2008 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

right

I’m not sure about Mahay, though. I don’t really know how to calculate value for relievers, and for starters I’m shaky. If it is just innings/quality, then now relief studs would get that much money. I mean, I think Rivera’s seriously overpaid at $15/per, and he’s was the best reliever in the game. But I don’t think he should be making $4 million, either…

It all depends on what Mahay and affedlt make, and how much one, the other, or both add to the pen.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Oct 27, 2008 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I just hope he has a good first half and gets flipped in July for something interesting

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Oct 27, 2008 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Mark Teahen

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Oct 27, 2008 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nice

The Indians will probably be in contention and they’ll probably need bullpen help. Everybody wins.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Oct 27, 2008 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

As mentioned in the post

relief pitching is not an immediate priority for the Royals, so Affeldt would not be the type of move to make at the expense of adding a big corner bat or elite middle infielder. But there is a good chance that the Royals are not going to spend big elsewhere, and if so, Affeldt would be one of the better ways to use the end of the payroll budget to upgrade the overall talent of the team. It beats the hell out of spending that money on someone like Juan Uribe, Jay Payton, or their equivalent, which is what many teams do. The Royals should take the bargains when they can get them.

Affeldt then allows Moore to move another bullpen piece or two for more pressing needs that cannot be filled as easily or cheaply through free agency. Affeldt with his fastball, power curve, and groundball rate has a better skill set than the other lefthanders, Mahay and Bale, and Affeldt is young enough to be part of the core going forward, again, unlike Mahay or Bale. But if you prefer to keep all three lefties (which the Royals could because none show a big platoon split), Ramirez or Nunez could fetch a nice return.

by Gopherballs on Oct 27, 2008 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

TEAHEN

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Oct 27, 2008 9:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

BALE FOR JACOBS NOW

SLOW, ONE-DIMENSIONAL SLUGGERS WITH POOR OBP NOW

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Oct 27, 2008 9:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

anyway, I agree

The Royals aren’t putting the pieces to together for a championship run. They should be seeking underavlued and thus underpriced talent where they can find it so they can moves the pieces around for what they need

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Oct 27, 2008 9:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Anybody remember TP Sr

telling Affeldt to soak his blisters in pickle juice all day? (She’s a freak if that’s what s.. ….)

Anyway, I wouldn’t be upset to get Affeldt back, but we have much more need for other pieces.

Don't Stop Believing!

by KC Chris on Oct 27, 2008 3:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

so let's move Mahay for something

and sign affeldt for cheap.

Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.

by 306008 on Oct 27, 2008 11:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I think the max offer should be $2 million per year

But I’d be against signing him while we still have Mahay, and if there’s still a chance that we can land a premiere player. This second scenario seems less and less likely, based on what I’ve read here and elsewhere.

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by marbotty on Oct 28, 2008 7:15 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs