Mike Jacobs Rant
by jackie ballgame on Oct 28, 2008 10:52 AM EDT
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PrintFirst of all, apologies if this is redundant, I haven’t seen too much in-depth discussion of the Mike Jacobs possibility outside of Craig Brown’s take, which is a good read (Royals Authority). So if you believe this thread, there’s a few things you can take away from it. (1) The Royals were going to deal Carlos Rosa, as he or Cortes are the only minor league pitchers with trade value in the high minors, which is what Florida would require for Jacobs...and if it’s true that some medical issue emerged last week, then Rosa would have been the guy, given that (a) a medical issue did emerge surrounding Rosa last week and (b) the Royals are keeping said medical issue on the down-low, so as not to tip their hand. So the Royals are trying to trade a pitcher (the currency of baseball) for a power hitter. Moore has already said he’s interested in a hitter at any position; that the Royals are flexible enough to reshuffle their own players to accommodate such a hitter.
A few questions:
(1) What does it say that they are going after another power-hacker with terrible OBP? (Guillen also fits the description)
My answer: This move is reminiscent of the pre-Moore era in KC. The Royals suddenly seem caught up in obtaining “proven” guys, and since Jacobs hit 32 homers last year, regardless of whatever bad habits he possesses, the simple “32” number makes him “proven.” This, in my opinion, is very simplistic thinking. It’s what the Royals have done for years; try to obtain guys who have already shown something in the bigs instead of breakout candidates. They did attempt to obtain an unproven hitter recently in Ryan Shealy and it hasn’t yet worked out, so maybe Moore and company are feeling gun shy in trying it again (before Shealy, to find the last breakout candidate the Royals obtained via trade or free agency, that is, someone who was not yet “proven” themselves, you have to go all the way back to Jermaine Dye...unless I’m missing someone). The obvious problem with Jacobs is that not only has he proven he can hit 30 homers, he has proven that he hits a pretty empty 30 homers and K’s a ton.
(2) What does it say that the Royals are trying to get said power-hacker at the first-base position?
My answer: We don’t have to obtain breakout candidates at 1B because we have about 4 of them. What in the name of Kila Kaaihue/Ryan Shealy/Billy Butler/Alex Gordon-in-a-pinch do we need to trade for another 1B (who is slow afoot and can’t play the outfield)? Here’s a scenario: what if Killer Kaaihue mashes in AAA next year, which many feel is distinct possibility? What if Kaaihue not only mashes, but OBP’s .400? Then I suppose you start trying to trade guys, but... well don’t our priorities lie elsewhere than Mike Jacobs? I just don’t get it.
Mike Jacobs is not creative thinking.
Small markets, more than any other attribute, must employ creative thinking. That was the one thing that excited me most about Moore when he came here; creativity. I’m starting to wonder.
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although i like the thoughts of trying Shealy then going with Kaaihue too
I don’t really see this as a bad idea. Rosa for Jacobs as the principals is probably a good deal overall, even if it doesn’t fit the current roster perfectly. Give DM some room to maybe deal one of the other 1B.
His walk rate isn’t high, but it isn’t terrible either. He OPSed 810 this year, and the stats suggest some neutral luck ought to add 20 to 30 points of average to that next year (PrOPS has him at 862). He is 27, so not much room for other development, but not a bad hitter.
I don’t know, kinda indifferent on whether or not this happens to be honest.
PrOPS or not
Have you read some of the critiques of PrOPS, Zeppelin? I’m not endorsing them, necessarily, but they do raise some valid points.
I will say that I think Jacobs is what he is as a hitter — after three years, this is who he is. He’s also in the easier league. He’s also a somewhere between a -8 and -12 run defender at first.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Oct 28, 2008 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions
Have you read some of the critiques of PrOPS, Zeppelin?
i have read several things about it, but are there certain articles in particular you are referring? PrOPS certainly has its limitations, but its still a stong luck neutralizing stat
I will say that I think Jacobs is what he is as a hitter — after three years, this is who he is.
HR/FB rate went up over 7% this last year… thats a lot. BABIP also droped about 50 points with no real change in hit profile (.2% change in LD%)
I guess I feel like, taking age, defense, and league into account, that he’s probably a 1-1.5 WAR player at best. I’m not convinced that’s better than Shealy. And I wouldn’t trade Rosa for Ryan Shealy.
I’m agnostic on PrOPS. I do feel like if a guy over/underperforms his PrOPS in the same manner 3-4 years in a row (and that’s what I remember seeing for Jacobs, but that may be wrong, I’m too lazy to look at the moment), that his OPS is closer to his “true talent” than PrOPS. That’s different than using it to look at one year of Mike Aviles, I think.
Here is a discussion that made me rethink my initial uncritical enthusiasm for PrOPS. I still look at it, of course, I’m just not so slavishly adherent.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Oct 28, 2008 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions
ahh, tango's opinion on it
Tango is a good baseball thinker, but kinda a crappy statistician. His main criticism stems from his own lack of understanding of regression analysis. He makes a major and very obvious math error in those posts. The forum posts from which those posts come from end in the creator of PrOPS telling tango to stop posting cause he doesn’t understand the math. The ratio vs. rates stats are a concern, but from some of the work I have done reverse engineering it, I think it has a minor effect on accuracy, if at all.
with any regression (which is how PrOPS was done), samples at extremes can cause problems, moreover the author of it doesn’t make his formula public, so it lacks transparency. But the concept in and of it self is wonderful for getting a more accurate measure of OPS performance. Obviously all the normal problems with OPS as a stat apply as well.
+1
I have noticed that every stathead has an interesting mix of baseball intelligence and mathematical/statistical skill. I agree that tango is longer on the first and shorter on the second (and this isn’t a huge criticism of him; everyone has his strenghs and weaknesses and it’s not like he’s mathematically or statistically ignorant). I think Nate Silver has a great mathematical/statistical mind, but only a good baseball mind (maybe a very good basball mind). Personally, I’m longer on baseball thinking than mathematical skills. I couldn’t run a regression analysis to save my life.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Oct 28, 2008 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Either way
I wish I could even get a basic understanding of regression.
Well, let’s take PrOPS anyway:
Mike Jacobs PrOPS/OPS, last three years
2008: .862/.812 (unlucky)
2007: .757/.775 (lucky)
2006: .798/.812 (lucky)
Here’s his PrOBP/OBP, for good measure:
2008: .321/.299 (unlucky)
2007: .310/.317 (lucky)
2006: .337/.325 (unlucky)
“Lucky” and “unlucky” aren’t meant in any technical way, just to clarify what years he was better or worse than PrOPS expected.
Well, color me still unimpressed. Yeah, he’s probably a slightly better, left-handed, even more defensively-challenged version of Jose Guillen. As a hitter, he had a (by far his best) year this year, a bad year last year, and a good year in 2006. More recent years should get the most weight. When you look at his PrOBP, his best year was 2006, with a .337, while in real life his OBP has gotten worse each year.
While Hittracker isn’t the be-all end all, it is interesting that he doesn’t have an exceptional number of “no doubters” in his career high 32 HR year. Gary hasn’t emailed me back with the current ratios yet, but assuming the older 25% ratio of “Just Enough” homers, Jacobs has 12 where one would expect 8. So Luck maybe be favoring him there.
Still, I’ve probably been a bit unfair, that’s true.
Add to all this him facing lesser pitching in the NL, his age, his athletic profile, his inability to hit lefties, and his apparent need to pick up fielding tips from BIlly Butler, and I’d still say that he profiles as a guy who might more valuable than Ryan Shealy.
People can decide for themselves what that’s worth in a trade, and how he would fit into the Royals roster.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Oct 28, 2008 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions
I got the PrOPS and OPS mixed up in 2006
his PrOPS was .810, his OPS was .798. He was a bit unlucky that year. Although I’m not sure I’d call even his PrOPS “good” for even an average first baseman (which he is far from being).
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Oct 28, 2008 5:58 PM EDT up reply actions
You got PrOPS and OPS mixed up?
I’m going to have to confiscate your sabermetrician decoder ring.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Oct 28, 2008 6:01 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't have one, luckily
I only cite sabermetrics. I have no idea how to actually do it.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Oct 28, 2008 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions
You don’t have to invent a new batted ball independent fielding metric in order to be a sabermetrician. If you can speak the language and know what they’re talking about, you’re in the club. This field of study is loose, large and basically a grassroots movement. Like it or not, you are part of the peer review process.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Oct 28, 2008 6:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Big props for this post
< / stupid pun>
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Oct 28, 2008 11:03 PM EDT up reply actions
in your defense, one, i have never read your book, and that is more than i have ever accomplished, and two, this discussion was 2 years ago, lots change over time. But one piece of evidence I have is that discussion you had with bradbury on his website, and he was very much right on the math.
obviously in the anonymous realm of the internet, good posting is more fun with random insults, so if i offended you, sorry.
btw
odds that you actually read that? seriously, and on the first day, not even enough time for google?
Math
Please be specific as to where I was wrong in the math. I would prefer the evidence of your presentation than just the summary of your conclusion. I have no problem admitting when I am wrong, but just seeing someone’s conclusion means nothing. I show ALL of my work, and I leave it to others to accept or not the results. The same should apply here.
As for the odds of me being here, someone linked to my site, and I came here.
not to re-hash it all
but go back to the original source of the discussion, JC Bradbury explains exactly the errors you make in his final two posts (11 and 15 I believe). mainly, you can’t simply take the inverse of a variable and not re-work the entire model, you can’t just take a couple variables to remodel something like that (omitted variable bias) to show a similar relationship, and rates in Bradbury’s model were causing collinearity problems (i guess this isn’t really your mistake, but a limitation of the data).
I don’t like ratios in my models either, they are problematic in a variety of ways, but your argument against was poor.
The one thing I really do like was your willingness to drop OPS as the ultimate goal (I think OPS has become kinda a crutch stat). Trying to model based on GPA was an improvement. In my opinion, something like RC/27 or one of it many comparable stats might even be better.
wOBA!
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Oct 29, 2008 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions
ratio/rates
I was pointing out the difference between rates and ratios, and how at the extremes, you would get different results. For those who didn’t follow it, if you say GB% of 66.7% or FB% of 33.3%, and the rest of the model remains the same, you will get EXACTLY the same results in your linear regression. That’s because GB = 1-FB, and therefore, the only thing that will change is the intercept. However, using GB/FB or FB/GB will give you DIFFERENT results, both for the coefficient for this parameter, and the coefficients for all other parameters.
A GB/FB of 2 compared to a GB/FB of 1 is as far away as a GB/FB ratio of 1.5 as it is to 0.5, in the JC model. However, one if comparing 66.7% to 50, while the other is comparing 60 to 33%. Obviously, they are nowhere close to each other.
JC however is a slave to the regression and chose to use ratio over rates because it best-fitted for him. That is a poor reason to do so, suggesting that there is an inherent bias in GB% that would require a GB/FB treatment.
haven't read the full discussion
but since when does GB = 1 – FB? What happend to LD’s?
GB/FB
If you are talking about a GB to FB ratio, then in that particular metric, that’s all JC is considering. Given that he only wants to look at those two, you need to show it as a percentage. Imagine instead of using HR per PA or HR per AB, you use AB per HR. Juan Pierre would have a ratio of 500, while Pujols would be 15. And a league average hitter would be 30. But a league average hitter is pretty much half way between Pujols and Pierre. A rate will give you that. Some crazy ratio won’t. That’s why you need to get the numerators and denominators right. You can’t be a slave to the regression results.
Anyway, I came here to set the record straight. This comment
He makes a major and very obvious math error in those posts.
has not been explained, even though I specifically asked for the specifics. If it was so major and very obvious, it should be easy to point out. As a basic rule, readers should reject all summary positions that are not accompanied with explanations.
you are absolutely right about that being a major problem with ratios
thats not the issue, go back to to my post above and JC’s from his website, those are the math mistakes, and as far as statistical methods go, they are big errors.
Quote
Can you be kind enough to simply quote my math mistakes? I have no idea what you mean by “those are the”.
JC's post
This is JC’s post. If you are talking about JC’s reply in post 11, then he didn’t quite understand what I did in post 9. What I did was perfectly correct, and any issue with what I did was in my quick presentation and not the math. The math is perfectly sound, and I’ll be happy to elaborate in a separate article if that’s what it takes to clear up the confusion.
I would enjoy seeing it
I’m not saying I’d understand it, so it might not be worth your time to go through all the steps on a level I’d understand, but if I have a vote (which I shouldn’t, since I’m not really part of this debate), that’s what it would be.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Oct 30, 2008 10:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Marlins writer
In the Royals’ case, Triple-A Omaha right-hander Carlos Rosa has been discussed, his 96-mph fastball viewed as a potential setup weapon for young closer Matt Lindstrom. But Rosa was shut down in August with a tender arm, and the Marlins aren’t enamored with the rest of the Royals’ system.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
IF (and that's a conditional) this is true
it’s another negative mark on Moore’s judgment re: position players
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Oct 28, 2008 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions
did they want Yuniesky Betancourt for Butler, too?
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Oct 28, 2008 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Look at the home run total!
Balboni’s record may finally fall, isn’t that all that matters?
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Then that is another piece of evidence that it is a bad deal
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Oct 28, 2008 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions
hee hee
never been to Royals Corner. What the deal?
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Oct 28, 2008 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t want to dump on them or that place too much because I’m sure many people here frequent that site as well. But, in short, I personally believe that the quality of discourse and analysis there isn’t great. There are certainly smart and knowledgeable people there. They have particularly good information about prospects. But their analysis leaves quite a bit to be desired.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Oct 28, 2008 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions
I think
Its a good cross sample of rabid fans, whereas this site for whatever reason seems to skew towards the analytical sabermetric fans.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
A good cross section of rabid fans = mob mentality
And Retro, I think you’re right.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Oct 28, 2008 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions
SUUURE we are
(rolls eyes)
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Oct 29, 2008 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Analytical sabermetric fans
Who might I add, are incredibly handsome.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Are You Coming
On to me? Are you really a hot chick?
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Oct 29, 2008 12:56 AM EDT up reply actions
Do we also "skew younger?"
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Oct 29, 2008 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions
The Simpsons is first
But Arrested Development is second.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Oct 29, 2008 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions
JINX
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Oct 29, 2008 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Get outta my head!!
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Oct 29, 2008 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions
I might put Newsradio in the top 5
Anybody else remember that show?
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Oct 29, 2008 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions
+1 on futurama, too
I’m sensing a demographic here…
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Oct 29, 2008 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah, that was strange
some of the episodes had really a sentimental, quasi-tragic twinge.
Perhaps a brilliant move to counter the over-the-top nihilism of The Simpsons.
People may disagree, but I think King of the Hill continues to be a seriously underrated show. I think it blows right by a lot of people who should know better.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Oct 29, 2008 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd put Futurama in the good but not great category
Solid, reliable, unspectacular. Like Alberto Callaspo.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Oct 29, 2008 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions
George Brett and nothing less
although going back to Arrested Development, think Barry Bonds.
Out of this world good, but with constant problems dogging him.
AD is more like Adam Dunn
Awesome to watch, very underrated… then after the initial enthusiam of its core fans, everything dies down. However, once its canceled/hits free agency, the diehards forget (or never knew) about its flaws, and it gets overrated/overpaid.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Oct 29, 2008 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions
no way
after its gone you realize how good it was by watching episodes back to back on DVD to truly understand it. It gets better with age.
I think I've probably just watched each ep too many times
I think the show’s value was actually saved by ending earlier than it would have. Didn’t go into a decline phase. That makes it a bit overrated.
Sort of like Kirby Puckett, except without the domestic violence and aggressive sexual harrassment.
“There’s been too much lying in this family”
“And a lot of love.”
“More lies.”
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Oct 29, 2008 5:53 PM EDT up reply actions
One of my favorite moments
“Bees?!”
Is that reference too obscure?
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Oct 29, 2008 6:28 PM EDT up reply actions
No
“Who’s the ‘her’ in that sentence?”
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Oct 29, 2008 6:43 PM EDT up reply actions
I think Grudz fits that category better
let’s give Alberto time
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Oct 29, 2008 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions
loved it
not sure about top 5, haven’t ranked it, but definitely good
Phil Hartmann was masteful. Andy DIck before he dropped to near-Carrot Top levels, Dave Foley as a masterful straight man, severely underrated eye candy…
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Oct 29, 2008 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions
I still have dirty dreams
About Khandi Alexander and Maura Tierney. And Vicki Lewis wasn’t bad looking in those days either.
Don’t forget the comedic insanity of Jimmy James (Stephen Root)
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Jimmy!
note the King of the Hill connection…
Yeah, all three were hot. Not sure what happened with Khandi’s teeth since then, but working with David Caruso probably really ages a person.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Oct 29, 2008 6:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Vicki Lewis =
10x more talented, 10000x more attractive, version of a Kathy Griffin.
Except that I wouldn’t want to put Vicki Lewis in a sealed container with Carrot Top and drop it into the middle of the Pacific Ocean.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Oct 29, 2008 6:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes, A very underrated show!!
One of my favorites.
We always did feel the same, We just saw it from a different point of view, Tangled up in blue.
-Bob Dylan
by Royal Kingdom on Oct 29, 2008 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Loved Newsradio
NY, good collection of actors
by I need more Esteban on Oct 29, 2008 8:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, great comic actors
And great writing too.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Oct 29, 2008 10:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Rocket Fuel Malt Liquor
DAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAMN
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Oct 29, 2008 11:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Very good
Simpsons (remember the old days) is/was still much better
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Oct 29, 2008 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions
There's a related fanshot
from a couple days ago, jackie, it you want to check it out here. I rant about the same there as you do here.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
Marlins considering dealing Jacobs
The source said the Marlins have been in ongoing discussions with the Royals about a possible deal for the left-handed, power-hitting first baseman. In return, Florida is seeking pitching depth, especially in the bullpen.
A couple of other teams also have expressed interest in Jacobs, including the Giants and Blue Jays. The Royals, though, may have the inside track, if the right compensation is agreed upon.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
hey, he'd have a pretty good chance to slug .500!!! The Dream fulfilled!
Of course, OBP .320 (if he ha a career year) and be the worst defender on the field pretty much every game, but that’s lots of homers!
Also gives the team a chance to finally rid itself of the cancer that it Billy Butler.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Oct 28, 2008 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions
The Royals need a good bat against right handers, and Jacobs has a career .850 ops against them.
I am surprised that the Marlins didn’t go through with the trade, Jacobs is not going to play for them next year.
Go Royals!
Carlos Rosa is hurt
That’s why the trade fell through.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Yah, but it is not like the Royals don't have other good pitching prospects they could choose from.
Go Royals!
except that better no-defense righty mashers are availble cheaply on the FA market
without giving up talent
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Oct 28, 2008 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Supposedly
The Marlins are not enamored with them. Only Cortes is really as good as Rosa, and he’s probably not MLB ready, and it sounds like the Marlins want someone that can step into their bullpen immediately.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
If the Royals were to go after anybody from Florida,
to me it would make more sense to pursue Jeremy Hermida. He has more upside than anyone they have on the trading block, and he could play center credibly. While Jacobs is not a bad player by any means, I think we need a slugger that more suits our needs. I hate to see the Royals part with Rosa, but the framework of the deal isn’t awful for either side.
Rosa
is currently on the 60-day DL. Does anybody really know what happened to him? We discussed it in a FanPost a while back, but no one had an answer. CBS, Fox, and ESPN all list him as being on the 60-Day with season-ending shoulder surgery. KCRoyals.com lists him as 60-Day with a “strained right elbow”. I assume this is more accurate, but what’s with the others?
Don't Stop Believing!
I think he was drag racing Alberto Callaspo
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Oct 28, 2008 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions
????
i dont get it
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Oct 28, 2008 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions
My best guess, is that the strained elbow line is from the first injury.
He came back to pitch a couple of games, then went back on the DL for shoulder surgery, but Royals are still listing the first injury, the elbow strain. Can’t find any articles to confirm it though.
Go Royals!
Most of the reports on his injury from August/September say strained forearm
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Oct 28, 2008 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions
This rumor may be true...or not
Let’s remember the Dotel-for-Balentien trade/offer…which ended up not being true (probably, who knows). Did the Royals offer or accept Rosa-for-Jacobs? Maybe. Maybe they discussed it without agreeing to anything and part of this discussion involved the Mariners looking at Rosa’s medical records and then losing interest. If such a discussion took place, does this necessarily mean that the Royals would have traded Rosa for Jacobs straight up? Not necessarily. Maybe they wanted Jacobs+ for Rosa. Who knows.
My point is that one shouldn’t get all riled up over every rumor we run across. We have no idea how much of it is truth or what the whole truth is.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
+1
I think everyone’s concern is that if Moore (hypothetically) were to offer Rosa for Jacobs, straight up, it would be a major head-scratcher, to be kind.
i don't think it would be horrible
Rosa, in all likelihood, is a reliever. A good one, but a reliever none the less. Chance he could start, but it’d take at least 3 or 4 years to get him to be a 200 IP guy if you want to keep the health risks down, and even then there’s no guarantee he’s healthy.
You get Jacobs out of that park, and he’s damn good. You’d have to trust Hillman to not bat him against LHP, which you may or may not want to do.
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
it might save Butler's place on the team
as a platoon partner, pinch-runner., and late inning defensive replacement for Jacobs.
I’m thinking more rationally now… no, no, I still don’t see it.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Oct 28, 2008 9:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Rosa
Even as a “really good reliever” that is quite valuable. If he were to be a reliever, I think he could have closer stuff.
I also don’t think it would take 3-4 years to be a 200 inning guy, more like 1-2 seasons if that. And I don’t see why that’s a bad thing, its not like we have a wave of free agent pitchers ready to depart. We have plenty of room to be patient.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Oct 28, 2008 11:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Latest from Dutton
The latest: Florida first baseman Mike Jacobs remains a possible trade acquisition even as general manager Dayton Moore dismisses numerous sources touting a deal to send outfielder Mark Teahen to Cleveland.
"It’s unbelievable," Moore said. "I don’t doubt that somebody said that, but that somebody lied. (Cleveland general manager) Mark Shapiro will tell you the same thing."
Sources from both clubs said Teahen could be dealt for one of three outfielders: Franklin Gutierrez, Ben Francisco or Trevor Crowe.
Moore reiterated he remains committed to bolstering a lineup that finished 12th among 14 American League teams in runs and on-base percentage.
That search could lead back to Florida, which continues to seek an acceptable return for Jacobs after talks with the Royals apparently stalled over health concerns regarding minor-league pitcher Carlos Rosa.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
If Shapiro tells Dutton the same thing, then we know it's going to happen!
Why can’t the opposite be happening? Why can’t the Rosa-Jacobs deal be a lie, and “Gootz”-Teabag be true?
New DMGM stereotype possibly on the radar: trading decent pitching prospects (Howell, Buckner, Rosa) for mediocre-to-shitty position players (Buckner, Jacobs, Gathright)
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Oct 29, 2008 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions
We all know Callaspo gets drunk,
but I doubt he drinks enough to fancy himself as a fringe MLB relief pitching white guy.
Don't Stop Believing!
D'oh!
Simultaneity
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Oct 29, 2008 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions
"Buckner, Jacobs, Gathright" = "Callaspo, Jacobs, Gathright"
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Oct 29, 2008 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions
Rosa's injury
Rosa, 24, did not pitch after Aug. 13 because of a sore right forearm, but club officials see no long-term problems.
Again no mention of this mythical shoulder surgery. I think Rotoworld or somebody made a mistake with that.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Oct 29, 2008 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions
sore right forearm?
someone needs to tell him he might go blind
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Oct 29, 2008 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions
Actually, the vast majority of reports I read said "sore forearm" or "forearm strain"
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Oct 29, 2008 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions
What needs clarification:
We can argue all day about the relative merit of trading Rosa for Jacobs (I think it is about an even trade, more or less), but what intrigues me is what Moore would do AFTER (IF) this trade is consumated.
Obviously, a move or two addressing the logjam at DH/1B would be necessary, right? And the only guy at that position with decent trade value would be Butler, right? (I’m assuming Kila would not bring the kind of return warranted – it would be better for the Royals to gamble that he becomes a monster than trade him at his probably still low value, right?)
Even though I think the proposed trade would be fair, I still wouldn’t do it. I think the bolder move for the Royals is to gamble that Kila can become better than what Jacobs appears to be.
Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!
I think you'd be selling low on Butler as well
I can’t see any scenario where this trade makes sense.
We always did feel the same, We just saw it from a different point of view, Tangled up in blue.
-Bob Dylan
by Royal Kingdom on Oct 29, 2008 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions
Take this with a grain of salt
But a poster at Royals Corner says he has an in with Royals marketing who have been told not to market Billy Butler next year.
I do think Dayton is not a fan of Billy Butler and perceive the kid to have attitude/work ethic problems. This is speculation, so take it with a grain of salt, but I would not be surprised at all if Dayton dealt Billy, and dealt him for pennies on the dollar in a deal that angers many of us.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Oct 29, 2008 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions
+1 (with a grain of salt)
I think many of us have been getting this feeling for a while. I can’t speak for anyone else, but this would be the “piece of data” that pushes one hypthesis over the edge.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Oct 29, 2008 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions
Kaufman Stadium isn’t going to be a proving ground for young players before they move on to their next contract, just a final stop for washed-upu veterans with budget-crippling contracts.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Oct 29, 2008 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I don't think we'd need to trade Butler.
We could always let him work on his defense in AAA until he’s “ready” for the show.
Don't Stop Believing!
Wow
Some great points in this thread. How about tango showing up and the resulting mathematical debate which was reminiscent of this debate I heard the other day between two economists arguing over the value of layered mortgage securities…that is to say, over my head. But I’m taking a statistical research course in grad school right now and my dataset is due tomorrow so I’m suddenly very interested in math.
ANYWAY (as Chuck Klosterman would say—Posnanski is openly ripping him off), I think my real concern with Jacobs, the more I think about it, is that he blocks a couple of guys I really want to see play in Kaaihue and Shealy. If you want to be really UN-mathematical (lazy) and say that Kila and Shealy each have a 50/50 or so shot at being a productive first baseman next year, then why in the world would you bring in yet another guy at the same position?
Props to loyals2dad for pointing out the implications of the acquisition (or attempted acquisition) rather than the move itself. Obviously Moore would then spin either K2 or Shealy in a trade somewhere. So then the question would be, is it a smart move to replace either of those guys with Jacobs? Well, if K2 is the guy you’re going to move, then HELL NO. If you believe all of Dayton’s chatter about OBP, which he apparently reiterated 5000 times to JoPo in an interview, then there’s absolutely no way he trades K2 right now. So that means he’s shopping either Shealy or Butler (the thinking being that Shealy could slide over to DH if he obtained Jacobs). All of this raises two questions:
(1) Does Shealy have ANY trade value right now, even in a package?
(2) What is Butler’s market value? (I don’t think anybody has any idea)
I'm about to change my username to DannyDuffyfan
by jackie ballgame on Oct 29, 2008 11:52 AM EDT reply actions
What is the precedent
For dealing a defensively challenged “great prospect” who has put up pedestrian numbers in the big leagues?
Delmon Young comes to mind, but I don’t think Butler is quite as valuable as Young was last winter.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Oct 29, 2008 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions
not after DMGM's been basically broadcasting far and wise what he thinks of him
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Oct 29, 2008 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions
goes under... oh forget it
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Oct 29, 2008 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions
I think what this obviously shows
is that the Royals are too cheap to invest in the team. I’m sure that Butler is not being marketed because they don’t want to spend the money.
Seriously, though, I don’t think I’m in favor of this move (for Jacobs) based on the current roster configuration. That would give us, what 5 or 6 1B candidates next year (Gload, Kila, Shealy, Butler, Jacobs, Teahen).
I don’t necessarily mind the trade in a vacuum, although I get the feeling that we could either pick up free talent or get better than Jacobs for Rosa (maybe that’s a matter of valuing our own prospects too much). But, if we do this trade, we’ve got 6 candidates for next year. Assume that Teahen gets traded and KK ends up in AAA, that’s still 4 guys. I think trading Butler is problematic b/c as mentioned above, DM has been beating him down for a while and he hasn’t shown anything defensively because he really hasn’t been given the opportunity. So, do we release Gload? That would still leave 3 1B candidates, with one of them DHing, but then that crowds out anyone else being DH much (like Guillen).
Just to continue this line of thought, then do we not have a supersub and does that limit roster flexibility somewhat?
C Buck
C TBD
1B Jacobs
DH Butler
1B/DH Shealy
2B Callaspo
SS Aviles
IF ???
3B SMIRKY
OF Guillen, TBD? DeJesus, MITCH, Gator?
That’s 14 players (leaving 11 pitchers), whether you have 2 backup IF or 5 OF. The point being, there isn’t enough room unless we either drop Shealy AND Gload or trade Butler. I think all of these options would be varying degrees of mistakes.
I think you’ve got to give Shealy one last chance, so dropping him would be a mistake.
I think you’re selling low on Butler if you trade him now, as mentioned above.
I think if we were to trade Teahen, then dropping Gload is a mistake because of the flexibility he gives you. I would be OK with getting rid of either/or, but not both.
Bottom line, I’m having trouble figuring out how we could make this deal work.
I hereby resign from this post.
by Home Run Tony Cogan on Oct 29, 2008 12:20 PM EDT reply actions
good point
I'm about to change my username to DannyDuffyfan
by jackie ballgame on Oct 29, 2008 8:37 PM EDT reply actions
Are you congratulating yourself?
Hee hee.. just joking around. I think you meant this comment to be somewhere else…
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Oct 29, 2008 8:45 PM EDT up reply actions
I think it depends
I was reading those same rumors from Dutton. If it came down to Nunez or RamRam, I’d rather deal Nunez. But if the Marlins nixed Rosa because of injury concerns, then I’m not sure why they would want Nunez, as he has spent large parts of 2007 and 2008 on the DL.
That said, I still am not sure why we’re pursuing Jacobs when we already have a glut of first basemen, but that issue has already been beaten into the ground here.
I know this begs the question
but it depends on what you think Rosa’s future holds. If you think there he’s likely to be a middle-of-the-rotation guy, then trading a reliever is better.. If you think he’s a reliever, well, Ramon Ramirez was arguably the third most valuble relief pitcher in baseball this year (behind only Rivera and Papelbon, yes, more valuable that Soria, if you are simply going [as i am] by number and quality of innings pitched), then it’s worse.
Out of the three, I guess I’d say Nunez is the least valuble to the Royals. Still don’t think Jacobs has enough valuble to the Royals to trade any of those guys for, given that there are similar and better players to Jacob on the low-end of the free agent market, as well as the other guys already on the roster we’ve talked about.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Oct 29, 2008 10:15 PM EDT up reply actions
With the caveat that I'm not sure we should be trading for Jacobs at all...
…it might be marginally better, given GMDM’s knack for finding good relief pitchers on the cheap. RamRam or Nunez are probably more replaceable than Rosa. Springboarding off of what d_f has said, I do think Rosa has the possibility of being a #3/4 starter, so I’d be much happier dealing an oft-injured reliever like Nunez.
I'd be much more excited if it was for Nunez + throw-in
I’d feel slightly better about letting Ramirez go than Rosa, but still would rather give up Nunez.
BTW, the fact that this rumor continues to stick around
and not be denied, probably means that it’s likely to happen.
The Shealy trade seemed to go the same way. It was more or less done and completely leaked, just not finalized/announced for a while.
I guess
I never know how to value prospects, and pitching in general is still relatively mysterious to me, so combine the two and I don’t know what to say. Among the people I consider “in the know,” there seems to be little consensus about Rosa’s future or injury. having said that, I’d rank the relative value of the three pitchers this way (for me).
1. Ramon Ramirez (arguably the best reliever in KC. Tons of studly innnings. GB tendencies, too. Seems like it would be better to turn him into a closer and pump up his value before trading him)
2. Rosa (Possible #3 starter or future Ramon Ramirez? Who knows. Either way, I don’t think he’s worth trading for a guy who not only can’t hit as well as Russell Branyan, but can’t field as well as BIlly Butler)
3. Leo Nunez (Good, cheap reliever. Oddly, this still might be harder to find than a 1B who will be 1.5 WAR in a career year).
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Oct 29, 2008 10:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Nunez for Jacobs?
Where do I sign up? I love Marvin, but the guy just isn’t going to be healthy all the time. He’s always going to be missing a random 15 days once or twice a season.
On the caveat that Jacobs is going to be platooned, of course. He’s a career .270/.330/.520 against RHP, and I’d totally take that out of the #5 spot in the order. Who wouldn’t?
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
I dunno, maybe
depends on who is losing the playing time to Jacobs — Shealy or Butler. If it’s Butler, no way.
If it’s Shealy, well, it’s still a toss-up. jacobs will probably hit better than Shealy, but I’m not sure if its enough to overcome the number he’ll give up more than Shealy on defense. In full-time play, Shealy’s probably at least a win better on defense — and that’s pretty damn hard to do at 1B. If there was some arrangement like phil and I were talking about in a different thread where Butler 1Bed against RHP, and Jacobs DHed, then against lefties Shealy played 1B and Butler Dhed, that might make sense…
Of course, then you’re using three roster spots for guys who can only play first. If you want to do that, fine, but I still say there are guys out there who can fill that role (and have more flexibility) without being traded for. it’s up to you.
Also, if you take bRAA and pRAA from Stat Corner as “convertable” stats, Nunez’s two best years are both better than Jacob’s best year in FLO. Or add Jacobs two best years in Florida together, and thee result still isn’t as valuble as Nunez’s 2008.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Oct 29, 2008 11:02 PM EDT up reply actions
this article says it's Nunez, BTW
I think Butler will be moved now that it looks like this deal is happening. Like I’ve said before, that’s fine by me so long we get good value back for him. A good young starter, catcher, or CF would be ideal.
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
so much for Dayton's short-lived love affair with OBP
although after watching Jose Guillen for a year, maybe his mistook Mike Jacobs for Adam Dunn.
There’s a trio of Gold Glovers.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Oct 29, 2008 11:27 PM EDT up reply actions
I suppose you could play them each about 2/3 of the time.
Bulter against all the lefties, and Butler about 1/3 of the time at 1b against righties.
Go Royals!
The (rumored) heart of the Royals 2009 lineup?
Hey, remember that Fanshot I did about “”http://www.royalsreview.com/2008/9/30/625326/rbi-for-fielders-and-the-2" target="new">RBI for Fielders and the Royals?" The one that linked to this BtBS post? Sure you do.
Remember how there was a list of players most underrated and overrated by their RBI totals given their horrible defense?
I’m sure you remember that our own Jose Guillen tied with Ryan Howard for most overrated… I’m sure you can guess where this is going… Right behind them? (Potential) 2009 Royals 1B Mike Jacobs! YAY!
Yeah, according to Justin’s numbers, while Jacobs was around a league average hitters (once you adjust the linear weights of his offense via baseruns), his defense was of such “quality” that he was a below replacement level player.
To be fair, if he had just DH’d the whole year, he might have been as high as 0.5 wins above replacement.
We’ll see what happens. Just get ready.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
My post that I failed to link
RBI for Fielders and the 2008 Royals
But hey, Jacobs only had 7 GDPs this year, whereas JoGui and Butler each had 23! Maybe I should rethink my opposition to the trade…
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Oct 29, 2008 11:38 PM EDT up reply actions
FWIW
Buster Olney was on 810AM in KC this morning….
He expects this deal to get done for either Rosa, or a “not yet arbitration eligible ML ready bullpen arm” which he named as Ram Ram & Nunez.
I haven’t been following this too closely, not sure if these names are all old news (I know Rosa had been out there before). If I were GMDM, I’d try to push leo on them, and I may even toss in a low level prospect with him. I just don’t trust pitchers to stay healthy when they weigh 120# dripping wet…
Its a done deal
Jacobs for Nunez. Royals just issued a press release.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Boy, that World Series couldn't be over soon enough
they were obviously bursting to share the news.
Chaim Mattis Keller New York City's # 1 Royals fan!
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