Mark Grudzielanek & Alberto Callaspo in 2009

by royalsreview on Oct 29, 2008 12:09 PM EDT in News Comment 24 comments

When is Mark Grudzielanek going to fall off the cliff? Has he already?

Grudz will be 39 next season and has now appeared in 1772 games, most of them at a physically demanding position. Nevertheless, he's been extremely consistent in his sunset years, really remarkably so. The only problem is that he can't stay on the field anymore:

	Games	BA	OBP	SLG
'05	137	.294	.334	.407
'06	134	.297	.331	.409
'07	116	.302	.346	.426
'08	86	.299	.343	.399

Quietly, he's even starting to walk a tad more, and that .426 slugging in '07 was the third highest of his career (1999, 2004). I've talked about Grudz's growing place in Royals history before, but he's also stealthily turned in a great career. He's just about the best hitter you can be when you have no speed, very little power and don't walk a lot. Did anyone think in 2003 that he'd still be putting up his standard line five years later?

So why should we be worried about a crash? Only age really, age and the already declining ability to stay healthy. (Who hasn't come to love Grudz's annual day after the trading deadline injury?) Only one factor surely, but on the list of things to worry about, age would be number one, considering it's inevitable. Looking at the Bill James Projection for Grudz in '09 however, one hardly sees a cliff, or even much more than a very gentle slope: .286/.336/.393 with three homers and thirteen doubles in 78 games. (Considering he'll miss a few games early anyway, that sets the season-ender very close to the deadline, again.) Basically, it's a pretty boring projection to say that an old guy will lose some singles but little else. But there it is.

So whither Alberto Callaspo? 'Berto was a major player in last season's second half run at respectability, hitting .393/.485/.429 in 34 August PAs, then .294/.330/.400 in fuller time (91) in September. On the season, taking into account his rough beginning, he hit .306/.361/.371, which is a very Grudzian line: a high but half-empty batting average with a whiff more of patience and some less vetty power. Cool.

James however, spits out a .280/.335/.375 projection for Callaspo, with three homers and sixteen doubles in 100 games, almost exactly the same as what Grudz will do in his model.

Callaspo however will be turning 26 next season, with 431 big league plate appearances (and a host of off-field problems) under his belt (thats where these things usually originate). For this reason, Callaspo is a player to watch, both in real life and as the various projections come out this season. Unless there's something in his data that screams fluke (I see no major flags) one or two programs are going to see big things for him.

Or so sayeth one human, predicting the electronic predictors.

You can order the 2009 Bill James Handbook here.

0 recs | Comment 24 comments | Share

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

also?

grudz contract status for ’09?

by royalsreview on Oct 29, 2008 12:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Free Agent, as far as I can tell

He’s been surprisingly good, but he’s old, too expensive for arb, and while his defensive was good earlier in his career, he’s been below average the last two.

.280/.335/.375 isn’t great from a 2B — almost certainly below average, but I don’t see why Callaspo shouldn’t get a shot next year over the whole year. Well, I guess if you’re going to hold him to the same standard as Billy Butler, he probably should get jerked around and have not-so-subtle hints of his limitations dropped in the press, but I say give him a shot. There isn’t much data on Callaspo’s defense, but what there is says he’s average at best, and pretty bad at worst. Still, for a team in a developmental year, that’s no reason (and, in fact, given the uncertainty, a good reaason) not to let him start over most of the year. He’s probably something like a good bench guy or below average starter, but the price is right, and the Royals could do worse (and have).

As I wrote elsewhere on BtBS re: Callaspo:

Upside: Luis Castillo without the steals
Downside: Esteban German without the walks

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Oct 29, 2008 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I thought he was optioned for this year?

I wanna know what love is, I want you to show me

by LeoBloom on Oct 29, 2008 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Grudz is a free agent after the World Series

Grudz signed a one-year contract with a team option before the 2007 season. After the 2007 season, the Royals exercised the team option for 2008. There is no option for 2009. Grudz’s contract thus expires after the World Series, at which time he becomes a free agent (upon filing the necessary paperwork).

by Gopherballs on Oct 29, 2008 8:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I hope his agent forgets to file the paperwork a la Terrell Owens from a few years back

trade him for a PTBNL!

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Oct 29, 2008 8:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Note on Callaspo

I read somewhere that he is playing exclusively at shortstop in winter ball (don’t remember if he is in Dominican League, or some other league) at the behest of the Royals.

This seems to indicate they view him as a utility guy rather than a starter, doesn’t it? (Not saying I agree…) Sort of the next German?

Surely the team will look to acquire a different middle infield starter this offseason, rather than go with the 40 year old again, right?

Hard to tell, because Moore often speaks a lot without revealing much.

Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!

by loyal2sdad on Oct 29, 2008 12:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I think they view him as a utility guy

They had him try the outfield some last year too. I still think DM has a hard-on for Furcal, and failing that will turn to someone like Felipe Lopez (ugh) or Cesar Izturis (double ugh) with Aviles moving to 2B.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Oct 29, 2008 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I have a strong feeling this offseason is not going to go over well with the analytical and sabermetric types

by Top Ramen on Oct 29, 2008 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ooh Edgar Renteria

I can see DM loving that guy!

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Oct 29, 2008 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Go down the checklist...

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Oct 29, 2008 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No problem with Furcal

if the price is right, and the deal protects the team in case of injury

Still think O-Dog’s the slightly better player, even without considering Furcal’s back problem, but Hudson will probably be too expensive.

Ellis would really have been perfect, but between going to college, being drafted by a previous Roayls regime and other stuff I could make fun of Dayton for, it wouldn’t have happened.

Dayton’s pretty good, but Billy Beane he ain’t.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Oct 29, 2008 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

he sucks with position players frankly

I wanna know what love is, I want you to show me

by LeoBloom on Oct 29, 2008 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The cliff:

discussed here:

You never see it coming. Player X is having a solid career, peaking in the .300/.380/.540 range for a run-of-the-mill franchise. He has a minimal history of injuries—the average aches and pains, an occasional stint on the DL, but nothing worse than that. He hits the other side of 30 as an accomplished player and is generally considered one of the better, more consistent players in the game.

Then, all of a sudden, it happens: the player just collapses. At first, it just looks like a slow start, but as July rolls around, the slow start has turned into an off year and the fans and media are more unforgiving.

Come the off-season, optimism abounds. “Anyone can have an off year,” says the player. Then, for the second straight year, there’s a slow start, and the player beings to drop in the batting order. He can’t explain his lack of production: he’s healthy, he’s seeing the ball fine, and he’s still drawing walks. He’s not striking out any more often. He just can’t hit.

by royalsreview on Oct 29, 2008 2:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Good point, but the funny thing is that the player under discussion there is Tim Salmon

the article was posted May 2, 2002.

Through April 2002 (his age 33 year), Salmon was hitting .183/.320/.305 for a .625. Although he’d been a very good hitter and and good OF until 2001, 2001 was miserable. Denkberg thought he looked done. I guess so.

Um… well…

Salmon’s 2002 ended up .286/.380/.503 with a 133 OPS+ in 138 games. That OPS + was tied for the team lead with Brad Fuller (remember him?). Although Mr. Overrated Garrett Anderson was in his prime, Salmon out OPS+ed him 133 to 127, and even though Anderson played more games, Salmon outdid him in Palmer’s linear-weighted park- and -league adjusted Batting Runs Above Average, about 26 to 23. He was the best hitter on the World Series champs that year.

But that was Salmon’s last hurrah, right? Well, in 2003 he hit .275/.374/.464 with a 122 OPS+ in 148 games. He didn’t lead the team, but he had 20.2 BtRn above average.

Anyway, I know that wasn’t your point.. I don’t think the Royals should bring Grudz back unless it’s as a severely discounted bench player, which I doubt he would.

Nonetheless, it’s pretty funny to look about at Dankberg’s analysis in light of how Salmon’s season and the one after turned out. He must have been the Christina Kahrl of BP 2002.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Oct 29, 2008 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yes, I realize Dankberg also wrote this

Now, it’s too early to write Salmon off completely. As noted, his plate discipline remains intact, and that’s a good sign. But the parallels to Murphy’s sudden collapse are clear, and as Salmon continues to ground weakly to shortstop and fly out to center field, it’s going to be more and more difficult for the Angels to ignore the demise of their long-time lineup anchor.

I hope the team and its fans were able to deal with Salmon’s dreadful demise graciously…

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Oct 29, 2008 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

BRAD FULLMER NOW!

I seem to recall way back in the day I did call for the Royals to sign him. Yikes.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Oct 29, 2008 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He was a good hitter for a few years

I liked him, too.

After he came over to the AL from Montreal, here are his b-r numbers from 2000 to his inglorious end in Texas in 2004.

2000 .295/.340/.558 120 OPS+ 12.6 BtRAA (above Avg) in 133 games for TOR (32 HR, 104 RBI)
2001 .274/.326/.444 100 OPS+ -0.7 BtRAA in 146 games for TOR (18 HR)
2002 .289/.357/.531 133 OPS+ 20.1BtRAA in 130 games for ANA (19 HR, 10 SB, 6 3B)
2003 .306/.387/.500 135 OPS+ 10.7btRAA in 63 games for ANA (bad injury)
2004 .233/.310/.442 87 OPS+ -5.5 BtRAA in 76 games for TEX (last year in majors)

One of the first things J.P. Ricciardi did when he got to Toronto was trade Fullmer. Without looking it up, I also remember him coming up big in the 2002 playoffs. He broke his leg really badly in 2003, when he was on his way to a very 2002-like season (adjusted for 162 games, the seasons are virtually identical). The Angels had finally made him their everyday 1B. I thought, and so did others, that when he got to Texas (where they hit him 4th) he would have another big year, but he looked done.

He was a guy without great patience, and trouble with LHP, but a lot of raw talent. Despite being really “athletic,” he really didn’t have a defensive position, although he apparently worked hard. Guys up here suspect he was a steroid guy, but who knows? There are “steroids guys” who never played again. I’m not sure exactly why he never got another shot — probably a combination on injuries, defensive and platoon limitations, and “rumors.” I’ve looked it up a couple of times over the years, but all I could find was a creepy (now-seemingly defunct) “fan” site with some workout photos and… interesting commentary, a blog entry that’s still up ranting about his wedding or something, and another “real” fan site that was amateurish but pretty funny, from his Expos days.

Good luck, Brad, wherever you are?

Cheer,

A Disgruntled 2004 Fantasy Owner

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Oct 29, 2008 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Kinda surprised

Everyone – internet, media, all indications from the Royals – seem to assume Grudz won’t be back next year. He’s the kinda guy you’d think the media and management would overvalue due to VETERAN PRESENCE and PURE GRIT, even at his age. Thankfully, rational minds have prevailed.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Oct 29, 2008 3:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs