Jose Guillen Just Wins Awards
The Hardball Times gives our boy JoGui their prestigious Joe Carter Award, saying this:
'Jose Guillen drove in 97 runs in his 598 at-bats this season. However, only having walked 23 times, he had a meager .264/.300/.438 line.'
Add this to Tom Tango's recognition of Guillen's 2008 achievements as well as the KC press's constant reminder of his 'good run production', and I'm sure Dayton Moore will ribbing Joe Posnanski for his foolish criticism of the signing all winter.
THT does give AL Rookie of the year to Evan Longoria over Avilanche, but, in their words, 'it is pretty close'.
3 months ago
devil_fingers
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I'm starting to get the idea that you don't like Jose very much
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by NYRoyal on Oct 4, 2008 4:09 PM EDT 0 recs
Hey
I thought of all sorts of stuff to put into a long response here, but I then I realized that maybe a calm response would sooth the rage. or something
One short story might illluminate how I feel about Guillen himself. When a good friend of mine told me about the Guillen signing shortly after it was publicized, I said to him, “Geez, if they’re going to get Jose Guillen, why not sign Bonds?”
My point is not whether or not the Royals could or should have signed Bonds, but to point out that “personality” and “clubhouse cancer” issues don’t matter to me that much.
That’s already a bit long. Let me just say that, although I think Guillen’s series of postseason “awards” is pretty funny, I would much rather be posting something from THT or BP along the lines of “Dayton Moore did it again — first Gil Meche, now Jose Guillen!” You can believe that or not.
But the main thing is, to repeat — I really don’t have anything against Jose Guillen other than I think he isn’t a very good baseball player. I thought about linking to a bunch of comments here and articles in the KC press and comparing it with comments on other players and stuff, but I think I’ve written enough about it. in summary: my main problem isn’t that Jose Guillen is a jerk (and really, I don’t know that overall, I remember us having an exchange a few weeks back where I said that I bet he’s pretty cool to hang out with away, and I still think so), and it isn’t even so much that he’s (in my opinion) a crappy baseball player.
I don’t dislike Jose Guillen. But what “gets my goat” is that a lot of people talk about him as if he’s really good, or as if his season really helped the Royals. And that’s what irritates me. It’s not as naerly bad as the evil ‘ol mainstream media’s obsession with Jeter, but it’s parallel, at least if you read the Star or even some comments around here. And, if you read at USS Mariner and places like that, the local Seattle media is acting that way about losing awesome Jose, too.
So that’s my deal — not Guillen, but people who think that he’s good and/or pretend like they’re the lonely voice in the wilderness defending him.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on
Oct 4, 2008 7:11 PM EDT
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I understand
I think we pretty much feel the same way about Guillen. The signing hasn’t panned out. He’s not worth the money he made this year and it is very unlikely that he’ll be worth the money he’s owed in 2009 or 2010. I don’t think either of us care much about his personality. He’s an asshole. But what matters is his numbers.
I don’t dislike Jose Guillen. But what "gets my goat" is that a lot of people talk about him as if he’s really good, or as if his season really helped the Royals.
I’m not saying this isn’t true, but I haven’t seen it. Where do you run across a lot of people saying that Guillen is good or that he had a good 2008 season or that he really helped the Royals in 2008? I’m sure there are some saying that. Moore of course says it because he needs to be positive about all of the Royals players publicly. Perhaps some MSSM mentions of this kid of thing. But that’s about it. Intelligent analysts don’t say. Very few fans say anything like that. I think this is a pretty small minority sentiment.
I don’t have any real complaint here. It just seems like you bring up Guillen a lot, even in non-Guillen discussions. He’s worthy of whipping boy status, but — if I may mix metaphors — I think you’ve beaten this horse to death and now your wailing away on the rotting corpse. I could understand it more if there were a significant contingent of fans on this site holding to the idea that Guillen was a good player, but I just don’t see that here. I think you’re preaching to the choir.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by NYRoyal on
Oct 4, 2008 8:18 PM EDT
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I think Guillen is a good ballplayer, he is just in the wrong leauge.
He would really mash in AA.
Go Royals!
by BabyBlues on
Oct 4, 2008 8:22 PM EDT
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Becoming what I hate
Preaching to the choir… something that always bugs me. I live in a current example of dealing with that. Well put.
I won’t belabor the point. I tend to run things into the ground — that’s my thing. I think I actually did made the dead horse/digging up it’s rotting corpose joke about myself and GUillen a couple of weeks ago. But if it’s bugging people, I’ll ease off. I know I’m not the only one on here who does that or who has his/her own “thing” that sets them off, but if everyone else here was jumping off of a cliff…
I get along, at least from my perspective, with everyone on here. I dunno, I can’t think of anyone I don’t like (who knows, maybe I’m the Gomer Pyle in this situation (“Alright Pyle, I don’t like you and you don’t like me.” “I like you, sergeant.” “Ok, you like me, but I don’t like you.” Well, maybe if you got ot know me better…"). I can actually think of specific posts/comments on here that have a different take on Guillen, but I’m trying not to be a vindictive jerk, and those people are entitled to those opinions, but I don’t want to name names or link to that stuff here.
I did post this because it was about Guillen, and it’s a “slow news day” or whatever. I thought the RBI for Fielders article itself was pretty interesting given the prominent Royals it featured, and that it was an approach to giving run values to defense. I would have posted it even if Guillen wasn’t a major player. And so on. I won’t defend every post or show where other people do similar things.
I do find it frustrating that, other than Posnanski (well-known nabob of negativism… I guess he has a big piece on DMGM coming out, so they’re still friends after the Hillman article. Dayton’s nothing if not good at keeping the bread-buttered. Apparently he talked a bunch about OBP), the KC Star’s much-vaunted sports-page people, including Sam “One of Us” Mellinger, raved about the streak and defend his behavior (whatever) as if they’re sticking up for a poor, oppressed soul, and then hardly mention his crappy second-half. People commenting on his blog called him on it. I do like Mellinger, but it’s easy, in the middle of Guillen’s big hot streak, to say “great signing!!!111” Hey, that’s fine, but then just admit you were wrong later. Saying “I wrote that in the middle of that hot streak” makes him look stupid, not excusable. Then there’s Flanagan… yeah, he a well-known idiot. FJM makes a habit out of going after those guys (if you think me.vs. Guillen is bad, check out FJM vs. Jon Heyman, Bill Plaschke, Derek Jeter, David Eckstein…)
Anyway, now I’m into substantive issues. But stuff like that sets me off. It’s not as bad here, buit effects what I post… Like when I saw a commenter elsewhere write “It’s hard to take seriously anyone who thinks that Alex Gordon is a better offensive player than Jose Guillen.”
Realizing that JoGui ended up being worth about 1 win better than Emil Brown offensively didn’t help much. Then when I looked at the defensive difference… ugh. If it makes me look a bit more restrained, I thought about doing an “Would you Rather Have a Hoagie or A Meal? Vindicating Joe Posnanski” FanPost, but I thought it would be too much… So, I’m learning.
So, I’ll just stop the rambling. You (all) aren’t my therapists. yet. I have tried to reign it in… this particular tidbit I did want to pass on, though. as it was a specific piece of news.
I’ll add an appropriate tag.
Thanks, and good night…. sorry for the rambling. I ‘m too lazy to edit this. Hope i didn’t embarrass myself to bad.
I do have a post percolating that I think might be of interest to people utilizing Hit Tracker to analyze the Royals HR power (or lack thereof) this year… just need to hear back from Greg with some more data fro this year.
Thanks fo the note. In the words of T. W. Adorno, “The splinter in your eye is the best magnifying-glass.”
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on
Oct 4, 2008 9:24 PM EDT
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You are one of the most entertaining and thoughtful posters on this site
I really don’t have a problem with your posts. I like them. There is a lot of good content in them, both humorous and insightful (at least as insightful as any of us in-our-mother’s-basement geeks can be). I guess I just see a certain number of “Guillen sucks” posts as being more than optimal. No big deal. Not even really a significant annoyance.
I do find it frustrating that, other than Posnanski, the KC Star’s much-vaunted sports-page people, including Sam "One of Us" Mellinger, raved about the streak and defend his behavior (whatever) as if they’re sticking up for a poor, oppressed soul, and then hardly mention his crappy second-half.
Yeah, like the vast majority of newspapers, they are pretty good on reporting the news and they are very poor in analysis. Nine times out of 10, they won’t even be negative about any Royals player. And when they do, it is usually very moderate. They don’t like to rock the boat. The columnists have more liberty to analyze and write openly and honestly, but even their analysis isn’t great.
Interestingly, with regard to Guillen’s season, he had half an awful season and half of a good season, but it wasn’t broken up into pre-and post-ASB. OPS by month:
April .594
May .823
June .975
July .446
August .649
September .865
The second, third and sixth months of the season were quite good. The first, fourth and fifth were awful. That’s some serious streakiness.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by NYRoyal on
Oct 4, 2008 10:05 PM EDT
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In a rare moment of being right, and in a totally predictable "I told you so, even though everyone already knew what I had to say"
I’m pretty sure some of my earliest posting this season were along the lines of “STREAKY HITTER IS STREAKY.” Well, I only put it that way recently. But some of my earliest posting in a thread with you were about how I thought that the streakiness was likely from Guillen because he’s free-swinger, low-walk rate guy. That’s one of the first lessons of "applied sabermetrics I learned by reading Larry Mahnken’s (a Yankees blogger who, I believe, helped found THT but has now got a job for MLB and almost completely disappeared) analysis of Alphonso Soriano (there is/was a fun streaky guy to watch. Sort of like a young Jose Guillen, except with speed. And without the decline [yet]. Aren’t they the same age?).
Now, having learned a lot of lessons this year from everyone here (too long to list — you, RR, morse, NHZ, ZeppelinDZ, Gopherballs, etc. etc. shouldn’t even list at the risk of leaving people out), I’m going to be even more obnoxious with my over-schooled and undereducated bullshit. Now I understand that guys like Sorano and Guillen streakiness isn’t just generated by low walk rates, but by their OBP’s dependence on BABIP luck w/regard to singles.
I just think that’s the kind of player he is. Maybe his defense and stuff was effected by his conditioning, but I think his hitting is what it is. I mean, his walk rate might bounce next year, and his BABIP might improve… but the feast-or-famine stuff is what it is. That doesn’t make him good or bad, of course. That DOES mean, I still say, that if he has two good months and the Braves offer anything that involves them taking his whole salary, etc. etc., well, you know my stance on that.
I really do think that, if stuck with him, that using him and Teahen in a platoon would work. I mean, it would never happen, because he’d go nuts, but Teahan’s D and mediocre hitting against RHP would end up being probably right around or under league average, all things considered, while against LHP Dunn turns into A-Rod, and his defense will be dwarfed by that… I wish the fantasy world was as easy to manage as the real world.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on
Oct 4, 2008 10:21 PM EDT
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I just think that’s the kind of player he is. Maybe his defense and stuff was effected by his conditioning, but I think his hitting is what it is. I mean, his walk rate might bounce next year, and his BABIP might improve… but the feast-or-famine stuff is what it is. That doesn’t make him good or bad, of course.
Yeah, he’s a very difficult player to project for next year. At the risk of oversimplifying, these are his recent OPS+’s:
2004 121
2005 116
2006 75
2007 116
2008 91
That kind of inconsistency and unpredictability is, I guess, what one should expect from an unathletic free swinger in his 30’s. There will be significant BA swings up and down, as well as injuries popping up here and there. So he could have a 110 OPS next year, or an 80 OPS, or anywhere in between. Clearly something in between is the most likely. Maybe 95? I guess that would be my guess.
That DOES mean, I still say, that if he has two good months and the Braves offer anything that involves them taking his whole salary, etc. etc., well, you know my stance on that.
Yes, I think the best fairly realistic scenario would be for him to have a .700 OPS in April (he always has poor Aprils), then heat up with .850 in May and .900 in June and then flip him sometime in July to a contender. I hope it happens. I hope Moore would be open to that. If he’s dead set on keeping Guillen for 3 years, then he’s really, really bad at evaluating position players and their performance-per-dollar value.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by NYRoyal on
Oct 4, 2008 11:26 PM EDT
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I must repeat
that, if Guillen is an “every-other-year” guy now, that the three year contract was a mistake, coming off a a good year. Too bad numerology is condemned in the Bible, eh, Dayton?
But seriously folks…
Leaving aside steroid issues, while I don’t know much about conditioning in general or aging curves in baseball in particular, Guillen strikes me as a guy who has just relied on his superior physical gifts re: swinging the bat. When he was 27-30, he was at something of a peak (25-29 is generally when hitters peak, right?(, but I think he’s declined since then. I have no idea, but I think it shows. Check out his ISO since 2005:
2005: .196 (WAS)
2006: .183 (WAS)
2007: .170 (SEA)
2008: .174 (KC)
That doesn’t seem too bad, but if I remember correctly the home parks, he’s been hitting in during that period team-by-teamget better for power hitters (although, from what i know, they’re all pitchers parks, at least from a HR perspective. The Nationals were playing in RFK both years, right, which was a severe pitchers park. Then he moved to Seatlle, which is hard on righties, but not as hard as RFK. Then He moved to KC, which is not as bad as Seattle. In other words, all else being equal (of course it isn’t but bear with me), his ISO should have been going up.
Also, while his FB rates during those years are around his career average (other than an aberration in 2006), his LD rates are down from 2004-2005… To my untrained analytical mind, when combined with his ISO rates, that seems like he might be losing the ability to “square up” the ball.
We’ve been over his BABIP/xBABIP issues last year.
I don’t have any idea how to explain his walk rate going from bad to worse. Fangraphs says he’s swinging more that ever (since 2005 = ever) at both pitches inside and outside of the zone. He’s also making more contact… but I wouldn’t be surprised if that’s why so many of his ABs end in weak grounders…
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on
Oct 5, 2008 12:01 AM EDT
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1 win better than Emil Brown?
The difference between fourth place and fifth place! Viva Guillen!
by jbrocato on
Oct 4, 2008 10:16 PM EDT
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Unfortuneatley, that doesn't count defense
At best, counting defense and offense together., if I remember right, Guillen and Emil end up being about even. More accurately, Emil is is almost a full game better… ugh.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on
Oct 4, 2008 10:23 PM EDT
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appropriate tags added
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on Oct 4, 2008 9:27 PM EDT 0 recs
Not exactly the best award to win... :P
A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.
by NHZ on Oct 4, 2008 10:38 PM EDT 0 recs
No Dodgers-America's Sweethearts Fun THread?
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on
Oct 4, 2008 10:41 PM EDT
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I didn't think there'd be enough interest. :P
A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.
by NHZ on
Oct 5, 2008 4:52 AM EDT
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I award him the
Sucky Contract Award in the Field of Suckiness. So he has that going for him. Which is nice.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Oct 6, 2008 12:21 PM EDT 0 recs
Guillen Award
Guillen wins the “I hit better than Sweeney did over the last 2 years combined and all it cost you was 1 million more in salary and some f bombs” award.
by kmartin on Oct 7, 2008 12:00 PM EDT 0 recs
NYRoyal -- here's a good example of what I'm talking about
kmartin, you are definitely right. I’m not sure exactly what two years you’re talking about, but I’m sure once you calculate the difference you’ll can decide if it was worth it. The other question is whether just having Sweeney off the books means it was a good decision to sign Guillen.
I might also recommend comparing Sweeney’s best five seasons with JoGui’s.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on
Oct 7, 2008 12:30 PM EDT
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I kind of think that was more Sweeney-bashing than Guillen-lauding
But that’s just a guess on my part.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by NYRoyal on
Oct 8, 2008 5:08 PM EDT
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