Aviles and PrOPS

by ZeppelinDZ on Oct 6, 2008 11:02 AM EDT Comment 24 comments

I thought about just adding a comment to the Aviles/Sickels thread, but as I think Mike Aviles will be the single most talked about person this off-season for RR, I wanted this to be a new post.

So, a lot of you read my look at xBABIP and the royals, but a central theme about some comments was what it really means. When comparing actual versus expected values, how does that translate to more traditional stats which actually tell you about on-field performance. i.e. what does a BABIP-xBABIP of .60 mean?

Enter PrOPS (I'm gonna call it props to save wear and tear on my shift key). Props is short for predictive OPS. It was developed by economist JC Bradbury a couple years ago. Basically, it takes a bunch of peripheral rate stats and turns them into a luck neutral, semi-park neutral OPS number. here is the article introducing it.

It seems the exact formula is proprietary as far as I can tell, I have tried to reverse engineer it and have a working version w/o park factors, but since THT
reports the stat, its easy to look up. Now, I really like the concept of this. Its not perfect, but as a normalizing agent, it is my favorite stat I have found to see true performance.

Props isn't necessarily a predictive stat. However, if you can forecast the components that make up the calculation, it can be used in a way. I might do a little of that over the off-season.

Now, I said this post was about Mike Aviles, but I'm gonna be really quick on his analysis.

2008 props: .737

OPS - PrOPS = .096

that .096 would be the largest difference of ANY qualified batter this year.

Is a 740 OPS bad for a middle infielder? no. Can he improve? sure, but here are the fundamental components of OPS, which ones do you think he gets better at for his age 28 2009 season? What about a year of bad luck or a sophomore slump?

Line drives per batted ball
Groundball-to-flyball ratio
Walk rate
Hit-by-pitch rate
Strikeout rate
Home run rate
Home park of the player

I have said this about a dozen times now, I hope Aviles proves me wrong, but the 2009 Mark Quinn award seems well within reach.

P.S. for good news. props like gordon, dejesus, and shealy

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Rec'd

Another kick ass article. I’ll have more comments later after I have time to absorb it.

Later this week I think I’m going to post a “5 coolest things I learned about this season from hanging around Royals Review.”

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Oct 6, 2008 11:24 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Also, I posted a link to this on the minorleagueball thread, hope that's cool.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Oct 6, 2008 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes!

PrOPS echoes some thoughts about Gordon I have coming up in a post in which I pretend to be able to do statistcal analysis…

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Oct 6, 2008 11:29 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

One more, and then I'll shut the hell up... for five minutes, at least

PrOPS also likes Buck over Miguel “OMG WE HAVE TO RESIGN HIM” Olivo.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Oct 6, 2008 11:34 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

What can he improve?

Although I agree that his BABIP is likely to decline, and his plate discipline is what it is, I have an odd feeling that his HR rate might be the one thing that goes up next season. No statistical basis for that, just something I think will happen. Not predicting anything ridiculous, just a feeling that he will improve from a HR roughly every 42 ABs to, say a HR every 35 ABs next year.

Oddly, his OPS will probably decline anyway. Something along the order of 280/315/465

If that happens, hopefully Trey will have the sense to move him to the 6 or7 hole in the lineup instead of batting him 1 or 2.

by loyal2sdad on Oct 6, 2008 1:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

If I ever hear back from the guy I'm waiting on

I have a post coming out on one way to figure out who which Royals were lucky/unlucky with home runs this year. Aviles seems to have been about right on the nose, so far.

What they should do with Aviles (in fact, with almost everyone, given this year’s platoon splits) is adjust their place in the lineup for righties and lefties. Aviles might be OK hitting 2nd or 5th against lefties, but he needs to be in the bottom third against righties. And, yes, Alex Gordon should be hitting in the top 4 aginst righties, every night.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Oct 6, 2008 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

agree with you on the lineup

I spent a good part of this season absolutely flabbergasted at our platoon splits. I haven’t researched this, but I’d bet we had the largest individual splits in baseball, based on the avg OPS split by regulars. Too much work to check easily, but my intuition is we blew the field away.

Problem is it would take one hell of a sabermetric friendly manager to embrace this concept thoroughly enough to construct two radically different lineups. Would YOU want to explain to Guillen why he is batting cleanup against lefties, and then 7th against righties? Hell, adhering strictly to the platoon splits could yield Gordon batting cleanup against righties, and benched against lefties! How bizzare would that be?

by loyal2sdad on Oct 6, 2008 2:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

It would be bizarre

and you don’t want to be so strict as to bench guys like Gordon and Butler at all — just move them down against their tough matchups so that they get the reps.

i just wish they’d do it at all. Heck, Earl Weaver kept cards, Casey Stengel brought back platooning. It’s sort of like people talking about OBP and ISO as if it were this new thing that a bunch of nerds thought up — I guess Branch Rickey didn’t know how to put together a winner.

I’m agreeing with you, I just wish there would be a bit more imagination.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Oct 6, 2008 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

So somebody tell me why we shouldn't sign Furcal?

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Oct 6, 2008 2:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I've got no objections if he's healthy

and if the big hitting COs are off the table (since I think they offer a better overall marginal upgrade).

A big postseason for Furcal might push him out of the Royals’ range, though.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Oct 6, 2008 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I've got nothing against Furcal,

and if they don’t think Callaspo’s range is good enough to warrant starting, then I guess it makes sense.

My initial thought was that they were marginalizing the OBP potential of Callaspo, but if they have legit concerns about his defense, then I get that – defense up the middle is still important, even in the high scoring era we live in.

I just hope, if they decide to go that route, they don’t ignore the corner IF & OF spots, because I still think those should be a higher priority than upgrading from Aviles/Callaspo/German to Furcal/Aviles/Callaspo.

by loyal2sdad on Oct 6, 2008 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

and if they don’t think Callaspo’s range is good enough to warrant starting, then I guess it makes sense.

My concept would be to bring in Furcal and then hope that either Aviles or Callaspo turns out to be a good overall second baseman. I think there are some good signs from both Aviles and Callaspo, but we really don’t know how either of them will pan out. Aviles’s hitting may be for real, but is “for real” a .740 OPS? Callaspo’s OBP may be for real, but it might not, and will he develop even line drive power? I’m optimistic about both. But I’d rather have two “maybe’s” competing for one position rather than relying on them for two starting spots.

I just hope, if they decide to go that route, they don’t ignore the corner IF & OF spots, because I still think those should be a higher priority than upgrading from Aviles/Callaspo/German to Furcal/Aviles/Callaspo.

No question that those are bigger priorities. It’s just that they might not be affordable, or worth the money they will get. Even if the Royals had a $20M free agent budget, it would be a big mistake to give someone like Dunn or Burrell a 4/80 contract just because that’s what it would take for the Royals to sign them (if, theoretically, it took that much to sign one of them). While their hitting helps a lot, their awful defense hurts their true value and they are both looking at steep declines for at least the third and fourth years of such contracts. So, if the Royals can’t get players like that for a wise, sound contract, then I think looking at someone like Furcal makes sense.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Oct 6, 2008 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Generally agree on Furcal

but the reports of him still experiencing radiating pain through his legs a couple weeks back has certainly given me pause.

The medical records on Furcal’s back might be this offseason’s version of Bartolo Colon’s shoulder x-rays.

by Gopherballs on Oct 6, 2008 6:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Very true

Back problems can be chronic and recurring (see Mike Sweeney and Joe Crede, among others). So the medical records and the exact nature of his back problem are critical. Even the medical records are scary to everyone, then I would expect he’ll get a make-good one-year contract from someone. In that case, one team could roll the dice by giving him more than one year guaranteed, perhaps two years with a vesting option for a third.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Oct 6, 2008 6:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Same analysis applies to Milton Bradley, Brad Penny, and to a lesser extent, Ben Sheets

Furcal plus those three might be the most interesting free agent contracts signed this offseason.

by Gopherballs on Oct 6, 2008 7:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yet another example of the tremendous advantage large market teams have

Their massive revenues, and therefore massive payroll budgets, mean that they can afford to risk big money on guys like these, because they can absorb that risk. For the Royals, spending big money on multiple guaranteed years for someone like Bradley, Penny or Sheets would be an all-in bet. For the Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs, Dodgers or Angels, it would be little more than an ante (or perhaps the big blind). [this is, of course, an exaggeration, but the underlying point still holds]

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Oct 6, 2008 7:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

While we're at it

(Thanks of the new toy, Zeppelin. Hope I don’t break it. Which I will.)

Furcal PrOPS:

2008: .852 (small sample size warning! 164 PAs)
2007: .715
2006: .782
2005: .784
2004: .755

Pat Burrell:

2008: .949
2007: .979
2006: .968
2005: .941
2004: .887

Adam Dunn:

2008 (ARI): .893
2008 (CIN): 1.032
2007: .984
2006: 1.001
2005: .981
2004: .991

You think this thing might like power hitters?

Jack Cust:

2008: .981
2007: 1.041

John Buck

2008: .710 (Olivo .705)
2007: .809
2006: .753
2005: .704

Marcus Thames:

2008: .882
2007: .821
2006: .894

Nick Swisher:

2008: .876 (real OPS is .743!)
2007: .853
2006: .940
2005: .829

Mark Teahen:

2008: .743
2007: .706
2006: .807
2005: .731

Jonny Gomes:

2008: .771
2007: .803
2006: .847
2005: .910

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Oct 6, 2008 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

A Cust/Gomes Platoon Would Be Awesome

and cost about 1/3 the price of Adam Dunn.

by Gopherballs on Oct 6, 2008 6:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

would kick ass both literally and figuratively

well, okay, Gomes would probably have killed whoever the other guy was by the time Cust got there, but you know what i mean.

That would fulfill my “big slugger DH platoon” fantasies that have gone unfulfilled ever since Matt LeCroy vanished from the majors. Imagine him and Matt Stairs in the their post-primes… They both have serious splits, but Stairs still got on base and hit righties for power (still isn’t horrible). LeCroy… well, okay, all he could do was hit righties for power. But it would be funny and slow. Plus, they look enough alike (short, fat white guys), that if you took the names off of their jerseys, and gave them similar looking numbers, like “33” and “88,” or “69” and “96” or something, you might even be able to switch them back to regain a lost platoon advantage!

Ah, the dreams.

Anyway, reading the stuff above about Furcal and thinking about how the Guillen thing is turning out makes me think that about what someone suggested before — bring in a bunch of guys on smaller contracts. I realize that people may not agree with me, but the more I look at it, when thinking about offense and defense as well as likely aging patterns, even putting salaries aside, I think Teahen might be a better player next season.

But that’s not what i meant to talk about. The Royals can’t and shouldn’t go nuts over Dunn or Burrell — I mean, try, but don’t go over budget. And don’t get caught in the “we have this money we have so spend” thing that seems to have sort of happened after Hunter and (thankfully) Jones fell through. I don’t know what’s going to happen with Guillen, but say he goes (or they stupidly trade Butler). I don’t know how much they’ll get, but why not bring in both Hinske and Juan Rivera on small 2-year deals for less than what the other guys cost? Have those guys and Teahen fight it out for corner spots… A platoon would develop anyway. yeah, I know Hinske is dreadful in the outfield, and Rivera, too, but how much worse can they be than Guillen? Rivera’s PrOPS is better than Guillen’s this year, and Hinske’s is, too. And it would be cheaper. The Rays have a wacky platoon situation with L/R stuff and defense, too.

I’m not saying it’s ideal, and maybe those guys are mid-level players that will cost more than they’re worth. It’s just an idae. Gomes might be another cheap target — is he up for arb again? Do the Rays even want him?

Another guy that I love in this category is Marcus Thames, although I don’t see the Tigers letting him go. Sure, he’s got Jose Guillen’s on-base “skills,” but he has Adam Dunn’s ISO. And I saw some stats from 2006 and 2007 (UZR, maybe) that made it look like he wasn’t so bad on defense, too.

By the way, I never see Cust on “worst of the year” defensive stat listings. Does he just not get enough playing time?

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Oct 6, 2008 10:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Cust would rate at or near the bottom (-20 runs or so) if he ever got enough playing time in the field

Oakland could get away with him playing the outfield as much as he did because the A’s basically played the equivalent of Endy Chavez at every other position.

by Gopherballs on Oct 7, 2008 12:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs