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Meet Josh Bard, or Yes, the Market for John Buck Insurance is That Limited

As expected, the San Diego Padres non-tendered catcher Josh Bard, making him an unrestricted free agent.  With San Diego the last three seasons, Bard had tremendous success as a semi-regular in 2006 (partially with Boston where he infamously struggled catching Tim Wakefield’s knuckler), a good year as a regular in 2007 (San Diego), and a horrible, injury-filled season in 2008:

 

2006    Age 28 (284 PA) 333/404/502  .410 wOBA

2007    Age 29 (443 PA) 285/364/404  .344 wOBA

2008    Age 30 (178 PA) 202/279/270  .255 wOBA

 

Career 265/333/395

 

For those who only look at the most recent season’s results, you can stop reading now.  For everyone else, Bard has very good plate discipline for a catcher and acceptable power.  Bard spent half his playing time the last three years at Petco, an extreme pitcher’s park, which makes his 2006 and 2007 more impressive, and his 2008 more explainable.  His 2008 stats were also hurt by severe bad luck – despite a healthy line drive rate of 21.6%, his BABIP was .230 (about .100 below his expected BABIP).  Moving to the American League would hurt his stats, but the move away from Petco (career 245/346/366) would more than offset that.   

 

Bard, who turns 31 before next opening day, probably will never come close to repeating his 2006 and is not good enough to start 135 games each year, but he is a good bet to bounce back and hit well enough to play regularly in a Gregg Zaun role.  He is a switch hitter, and while he historically has been better from the right side (career 288/341/443), he is adequate from the left side for a catcher (256/330/376).  Defensively, he has problems with the running game, but more importantly, does fine with blocking balls.  He made $2.2 million last year, and considering he just cleared waivers after the Padres took him off their 40-man roster, he likely will sign in the $1-$2 million range next season.  Bard would represent an immediate upgrade over Miguel Olivo and could serve as a stopgap starter if John Buck does not rebound from his lousy 2008.      

 

1 recs | Comment 33 comments

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Is he a significant upgrade over Brayan Pena?

We always did feel the same, We just saw it from a different point of view, Tangled up in blue.
-Bob Dylan

by Royal Kingdom on Oct 7, 2008 9:31 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I like Pena

but he is more of a traditional backup, while Bard is more of a borderline starter. Pena would do fine getting 150-200 PA a year, but would be exposed if he got much more than that. With Buck’s struggles, the Royals could use a second catcher who could take 350-450 PA. Pena’s 2008 MLE is 256/330/368 (698 OPS), which is a jump from his career minor league numbers. Both have good strike zone judgment, but Bard is a better pure hitter with a little more power. Bard also has the advantage of switch hitting. Over the course of a season with regular playing time, I would expect Bard to be 5-10 runs better than Pena. For one million and change, that would be a nice upgrade.

by Gopherballs on Oct 7, 2008 12:07 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

actually, Pena is a switch-hitter, too

just a note

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Oct 7, 2008 12:31 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yup, my bad

I saw the “R” next to “Bats” but missed that the R was paired with the “Throws.”

Pena has not hit RHP well in the minors (career ML v. RHP is 275/336/368).

by Gopherballs on Oct 7, 2008 4:38 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Great! Another righty-righty platoon!

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Oct 7, 2008 4:54 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Always been a fan of Bard

But yea, I think Brayan Pena can probably handle the backup duties adequately.

Honestly, I don’t think it would be a terrible idea to non-tender Buck and spend a million on Bard to save some money, but there is zero chance of that happening. Buck handles the pitching staff so well!!!!

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Oct 7, 2008 9:38 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Don't count him out

Buck = Baird acquisition = “Some of you guys won’t be back next year”

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Oct 7, 2008 11:14 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

he played with Huber

sign him NOW

"So whattya say, should we clean this place up?" - Tom Cruise

by DyeFan187 on Oct 7, 2008 11:12 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

With severe bad luck in '08

…I forsee a slight comeback season for Bard.

.260/.320/.380 for Bard.
.270/.320/.400 for Pena.

Sign Bard to compete with Pena for starting catcher in spring. Dump John Buck and Miguel Olivo. Save money, get younger, get better.

by Royals Nation on Oct 7, 2008 2:29 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

check PrOPS

adjusted for luck, Buck was actually a .710 OPS hitter this year.

Do you think Pena is going to be better than Bard in the majors?

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Oct 7, 2008 2:32 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yes

I view Brayan Pena as the Alberto Callaspo of catchers. Solid contact, subpar walk rate but enough contact to compensate for it, not too terribly much power.

I think .270/.320/.400 is very attainable for Brayan. I’m too lazy to reference, but what are his BABIP, LD% numbers recently?

by Royals Nation on Oct 7, 2008 2:43 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Pena's minor league batted ball data

Year GB/LD/FB% BABIP
2005 55.9% 16.7% 27.4% .345
2006 58.6% 14.9% 26.2% .328
2007 56.6% 15.2% 28.1% .325
2008 52.5% 19.9% 26.7% .308

Callaspo’s batted ball line this year was 46.7% GB, 26.0 LD, and 27.5 FB%. Slugging .400 is going to be tough for Pena with such a high groundball rate and low line drive and fly ball rates.

by Gopherballs on Oct 7, 2008 4:48 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

OK, but still....

…How does .280/.320/…. sound from a backup catchers’ slot? That’s a conservative estimate, sure, but if he can slug .380, we would have ourselves a damn good option for the price. Maybe the low side of Alberto Callaspo.

by Royals Nation on Oct 7, 2008 5:52 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I like Pena as a backup

but would prefer someone who could be more than just a backup for almost the same price. Last year, the average catcher hit 257/325/390. Free from Petco, Bard is a good beat to that, especially with regard to OBP. In his last full (non-injured) year, he hit 285/364/404 playing half his games in Petco.

But if Bard is not available or his price unexpectedly rises, I am fine with Pena as the backup. The point is not that the Royals absolutely need a better backup catcher, but that there is a starter-quality catcher available at a backup catcher price.

by Gopherballs on Oct 7, 2008 6:48 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Javier Valentin is a switch hitter in the same way

Good Charlotte is punk rock. He might try, but he isn’t close.

Still, he wouldn’t be a bad low cost pickup to go with Buck.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Oct 7, 2008 11:42 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

He's the

Practically Perfect Latino Gregg Zaun™

I bet Valentin gets too much to make it worth it for the Royals, looking at his numbers… but at least his platoon split gives him an advantage against righties, rather than bringing in a platoon guy who’s same-handed as Buck, except with an even worse OBP.

Did you see that our boy had a higher PrOPS than Olvio this year?

If the Royals really must bring in “veteran catcher” and Bard won’t work (has the same platoon splits as Buck, as does Brayan), I say bring in the Z-Game… Good OBP, fan favorite, undead Royal.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Oct 7, 2008 11:53 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Always been a Valentin fan

I think he’s a bit older than the kinda player DM wants to bring in, but he seems to be a decent hitting backstop. how is his defense?

I examine some catching free agents in my award winning piece: John Buck: To Tender or Not to Tender"

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Oct 8, 2008 10:51 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

we have similar tastes in part-time catcher... Zaun, Valentin...

except I’m absolutely certain think the Royals need to extend Buck to the tune of 5/85. Not sure how many club options, though.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Oct 8, 2008 11:31 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Should be incentivized

Depending on how well he “handles the pitchers.”

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Oct 8, 2008 11:50 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I like Valentin too

but slightly prefer Bard for a few reasons. First, Valentin will likely cost more coming off a better season.

As NHZ noted, Valentin is a pure platoon hitter who turns into TPJ from the right side. This limits his ability to catch everyday and requires a pinch hitter in close games when the other team brings in the lefty to face to him. The pinch hitting issue is not really a problem at other positions, but at catcher, you really do want to give a player a full day off. Bard is a better hitter from the right side, but is still hits like a league average catcher from the left side.

Valentin’s stats are also inflated a bit by Great American Ballpark, which (as some of the Adam Dunn articles have noted) might be the most favorable park for left-handed power hitters in the majors. Bard’s numbers are depressed by Petco, perhaps the worst hitters park around. Valentin is also a couple years older.

I would be happy with either on a cheap deal.

by Gopherballs on Oct 8, 2008 11:57 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Cincy is reportedly interested in Bard

And guess who they are letting go – our old friend Gabor Paul Bako.

BAKO!!!!!

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Oct 8, 2008 12:02 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

JINX

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Oct 8, 2008 12:03 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Dammit, mine came up before yours

Z-GAME — the only option, baby

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Oct 8, 2008 12:03 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

You and I

Are always going to be of the same mind when it comes to Gabor. Thus, our Gabor Bako III Fan Club.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Oct 8, 2008 12:15 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I dunno

he’s no Gregg Zaun

although Zaun isn’ t as fun to laugh about.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Oct 8, 2008 12:23 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

sounds good

My point with Valentin is that, although his “switch hitting” prowess is limited, he at least is better against RHP, so a quasi-platoon situation with Buck makes sense, unlike the Olivo-Buck righty-righty platoon. Bard also seems to do better against lefties, as does Pena, and as does (sigh) Gregg Zaun.

Hey, I heard Paul Bako is available again! You know he’ll come if Dayton shows him the money.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Oct 8, 2008 12:03 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

yeah, Valentin is better against lefties

but the advantage is not huge — Valentin career OPS v. RHP: 739, Bard career OPS v. RHP: 705. (Buck is at .672,, so either would be an upgrade against RHP). And the difference is actually less than that given Valentin has played most of his home games in a great hitters park, while Bard has played most of his home games in perhaps the worst hitters park. Neither is a perfect fit, but Bard has a little more value because he could start everyday if needed, while Valentin is limited to strict platoon usage.

by Gopherballs on Oct 8, 2008 1:04 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

You know, I'd take...

…either Bard or Valentin to pair with Buck. The simple problem is that Buck is overexposed as an everyday catcher in terms of hitting. He might even improve his numbers if paired with a veteran who can mentor him on hitting. – TL

by timlacy on Oct 8, 2008 4:41 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Just make sure he gets the right kind of mentor

it would be a disaster if Buck went out the mound to calm down Zack Greinke, and the first words out of his mouth are, “why do they call it Ovaltine? It’s not Oval, it’s round. They should call it Round-tine.”

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Oct 8, 2008 7:23 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

It's Not Even

Round, but more granular; maybe Fractaltine?

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Oct 8, 2008 7:36 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

it's gold

This space intentionally left blank.

by marbotty on Oct 9, 2008 4:55 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'm content with Pena.

Give the kid a shot at backup. It costs us less and he catches every fourth day.

Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.

by 306008 on Oct 11, 2008 10:58 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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