Yanks get Nick Swisher - Royals Review

Batting Average

It is relevant that his batting average was the lowest of all qualified batters, though.

Sincerely,
1982

We always did feel the same, We just saw it from a different point of view, Tangled up in blue.
-Bob Dylan

by Royal Kingdom on Nov 13, 2008 4:52 PM EST 1 recs

Swisher was one of the lowest of all qualified batters in BABIP too (.251), despite an above average line drive rate of 21% (league average is 20%). His quick and dirty expected BABIP was .331, a difference of 80 points. He was extremely unlucky last year and one of the best bets in baseball to rebound. PrOPS (which neturalizes bad luck) had him at 277/380/496, 876 OPS, which made him the second unluckiest hitter in the majors among qualifiers.

Swisher probably will never turn into the superstar that some predicted earlier in his career, but he is a well above average corner outfielder signed to a reasonable contract through his age 30 season (09:$5.3M, 10:$6.75M, 11:$9M).

by Gopherballs on Nov 13, 2008 6:29 PM EST up 0 recs

I thought the 1982 reference would give away the sarcasm.

We always did feel the same, We just saw it from a different point of view, Tangled up in blue.
-Bob Dylan

by Royal Kingdom on Nov 13, 2008 6:30 PM EST up 0 recs

Sorry, I stopped reading at batting average

by Gopherballs on Nov 13, 2008 6:41 PM EST up 0 recs

Even though RK was kidding,

this is still a good thing to note. Barring significant decline in skills—unlikely, if you ask me—Swisher should be a lot better this year.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Nov 13, 2008 9:21 PM EST up 0 recs

no doubt

I’ve been beating that drum for months..

Yeah, he’ not a superstar, but he’s definitely above average in the corner OF, both offensively and defensively. Let me do a quick projection…

Yeah, I have him at about 3.2 WAR as a corner outfielder, or 3.5 as a CF. And that’s with this year’s “unlucky” year getting the most weight. Yeah, that’s a very good player. And he’s still in his prime. Depending on how Gordon projects (and I’m not going to be trusting the James projections on their own), he’d probably be the best position player on the Royals.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 13, 2008 10:29 PM EST up 0 recs

I almost forgot

I also have Swisher being at least .75 wins better than Adam Dunn.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 13, 2008 11:16 PM EST up 0 recs

ugh.

I wanted him last year. That makes two years in a row we possibly could have snagged him.

Don't Stop Believing!

by KC Chris on Nov 13, 2008 5:01 PM EST 0 recs

swisher never made sense as a white sock

too productive and patient and not hacktastic enough

Moore would have done the same, or even shipped him out earlier

by royalsreview on Nov 13, 2008 5:06 PM EST 0 recs

Stat importance, per the Bravest Way

In order of importance (from first to least): GWRBI, 2-out doubles, SB total, fielding percentage, batting average!!!11

……..

And the least important, in order: Intentional walks, full count & 2-out batting average, 6th inning leadoff walks, on-base percentage, 9th inning RBI triples

See guys, OBP isn’t even the worst!!!

The Nation at large.

by Royals Nation on Nov 13, 2008 5:23 PM EST 0 recs

Of COURSE Moore would want him as 1B

since he’s actually about 10 runs worse there than in the corner outfield, and that’s even without the ~5 run position adjustment. Because the ROyals can never have enough corner outfielders.

Funny how I kept agitating for Swisher, thinking that the Royals would have to give up DDJ for him, or maybe even Soria (note that I only thought that would be worth it if Soria could only be a closer).

I think Retro is making this up to send me into another psychotic tailspin.

But boy, Cashman only knows how to win by throwing money around and overpaying, whereas DMGM is slowly building the offense by cultivating the young players and picking up undervalued commodities like Guillen, Gload, and Jacobs.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 13, 2008 5:25 PM EST 0 recs

Sorry... I meant the Royals have never have enough 1Bs

let’s see if the Yanks are smart enough to use him as Bobby Abreu’s replacement, then sign Teixeira to play first.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 13, 2008 5:26 PM EST up 0 recs

and playing the game THE RIGHT WAY

by royalsreview on Nov 13, 2008 5:29 PM EST up 0 recs

Nick Swisher just isn't aggressive enough

Therefore, he must hate baseball.

The Nation at large.

by Royals Nation on Nov 13, 2008 5:34 PM EST up 0 recs

Yes...another chance to bag on Jacobs before he even gets to play!

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Nov 13, 2008 5:28 PM EST 0 recs

He's played for several years now

I’ve seen stats.

We always did feel the same, We just saw it from a different point of view, Tangled up in blue.
-Bob Dylan

by Royal Kingdom on Nov 13, 2008 5:30 PM EST up 1 recs

That...really wasn't the point.

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Nov 13, 2008 5:31 PM EST up 0 recs

i am starting to warm to the jacobs deal to a point

and that is that moore got him on the cheap

i just wish jacobs was much much better

by royalsreview on Nov 13, 2008 5:36 PM EST up 0 recs

And I wish that Moore...

could have traded Nunez for Albert Pujols.

by Sweep_the_Leg on Nov 13, 2008 6:00 PM EST up 0 recs

That deal would be crazy!

Are you serious? Nunez for Pujols?

Everyone knows that the Cards need to fill the vacancy left by The Ex-Factor two years ago. Tony Pena, Jr. must absolutely be included.

The Nation at large.

by Royals Nation on Nov 13, 2008 6:18 PM EST up 0 recs

Well...

if we’re being fair, then we’d have to throw in Gload, too. He’d fill in perfectly for Pujols at first.

by Sweep_the_Leg on Nov 13, 2008 6:22 PM EST up 0 recs

Oh, yes

Of course.

But we’re going to need grit compensation. We’re going to need Adam Kennedy in return. But they’re going to have to pay him for his three-year contract extension in K.C.

The Nation at large.

by Royals Nation on Nov 13, 2008 6:34 PM EST up 0 recs

Oh, wait....

This just in: Kennedy’s a FA?

Well, better send us David Eckstein’s old batting gloves and pine tar. Also – since grit is a major (well, let’s not kid ourselves, the SOLE) factor in this trade….why not dump Billy Butler on them, as well?

The Nation at large.

by Royals Nation on Nov 13, 2008 6:35 PM EST up 0 recs

We obviously don't know how much of an effort Moore

made here, if any to acquire a player who is clearly better than Jacobs. We don’t know if the Sox wanted to deal within the division. I’m not going to harp on Jacobs’ negatives or Swishers’ positives, save to say that Swisher is much better than Jacobs and it’s kind of a bummer that the Royals couldn’t make a pitch for someone a little better than Mike.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Nov 13, 2008 9:24 PM EST up 0 recs

Swisher's is at least two wins better than Jacobs

even coming off his worst year since his rookie year, and Jacobs having just had a career year

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 13, 2008 10:30 PM EST up 0 recs

is it comfirmed betemit is in this deal?

by royalsreview on Nov 13, 2008 5:30 PM EST 0 recs

so this is why the deadspin boys were out last night

they knew…

by royalsreview on Nov 13, 2008 5:34 PM EST 0 recs

That picture looks sorta like the one Paul Newman

sent to his still-imprisoned buddies in “Cool Hand Luke”

Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!

by loyal2sdad on Nov 14, 2008 5:23 PM EST up 0 recs

+1

Nice catch. It really does.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 14, 2008 6:09 PM EST up 0 recs

I"ll go with this theory to help me sleep at night

Ken Williams didn’t want to trade within the division.

by Royal from Queens on Nov 13, 2008 8:20 PM EST 0 recs

I too think that...

…RoyalsRetro answered his own question at the end of his post: nobody likes to take trade risks within their division. Plus, Kenny got burnt on the McDougal deal—-meaning he didn’t get the bullpen guy he needed. – TL

[In 2008] Kila Ka’aihue had the best on-base percentage of any hitter in the minor leagues. - Joe Posnanski, 11/9/2008 ... Ergo, let's give him a shot at first base in KC in 2009.

by timlacy on Nov 13, 2008 10:17 PM EST 0 recs

Wait, isn't it...

…MacDougal? – TL

[In 2008] Kila Ka’aihue had the best on-base percentage of any hitter in the minor leagues. - Joe Posnanski, 11/9/2008 ... Ergo, let's give him a shot at first base in KC in 2009.

by timlacy on Nov 13, 2008 10:18 PM EST up 0 recs

Surely

KW would dealt Swisher to us if we offered back Ross Gload?

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Nov 13, 2008 10:42 PM EST up 0 recs

I heard it also happened

But Kenny asked for Miguel Olivo last minute and Dayton slammed down the phone in fury.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 13, 2008 10:47 PM EST up 0 recs

I doubt Kenny Williams misses Tyler Lumsden

Didn’t Lumsden post a 7 ERA for Omaha this year?

by jbrocato on Nov 14, 2008 7:33 AM EST up 0 recs

I bet he misses Danny Cortes

Don't Stop Believing!

by KC Chris on Nov 14, 2008 9:11 AM EST up 0 recs

And I bet he realizes MacDougal sucks

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 14, 2008 4:13 PM EST up 0 recs

on the bright side

we now know that Kenny still quite hasn’t figured things out, either. The White Sox are worse than the were before the trade. For now.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 13, 2008 11:21 PM EST 0 recs

Ok, does somebody want to defend Kenny Williams as a good GM now?

Possibly the worst trade ever. Ok, that’s probably an exaggeration, but has to be in the bottom 10%.

I don’t really see how this trade between the White Sox and Yankees is a bash Dayton Moore opportunity. Why did Kenny Williams do this particular deal? I have no idea. Maybe he really loves one or two of those prospects. But I don’t think the other 28 GM’s in baseball are incompetent for having not made a better offer to the Chisox. I’m sure no one else knew they could get Swisher so cheap.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 13, 2008 11:29 PM EST 0 recs

I guess what bugs me

Is that Dayton stressed OBA, then goes out and gets a player who was the worst at his position at it, while two young players who can play 1B/OF were traded this week for bupkis that have mad OBA skills. Its a buyers market it seems and Dayton rushed out and bought the first shiny object that caught his eye.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Nov 14, 2008 9:39 AM EST up 0 recs

To be fair

it sounds like DMGM’s had his eyes on Jacobs since mid-season. So,yeah, he had a lot of time to deliberate and make a smart choice.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 14, 2008 11:08 AM EST up 0 recs

Yeah... the Jacobs trade seems positively genius now

The Smart Sox Fans are, um, not thrilled. This kind of stuff does generate hilarity, though. Nice to see someone else producing it, no?

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 14, 2008 1:32 AM EST 0 recs

holy crap

now I’m hoping we get Vazquez even more.

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Nov 14, 2008 2:14 AM EST up 0 recs

I don't know what Kenny Williams was thinking with

It certainly wasn’t his head. Perhaps his gut or his heart. Maybe his grit?

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 14, 2008 3:27 AM EST 0 recs

Insane...

Hopefully Bill Smith will join in the fun.

Can’t wait to get Vazquez for Teahen and Davies, then turn around and get Scott Baker for Jose Guillen.

Somehow, I think that rotation could still win some games with scrubs in the corners…

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 14, 2008 11:10 AM EST up 0 recs

I had the same thought on what to offer for Vazquez

Davies is exactly the type of pitcher Kenny falls in love with (minus the good control), but Teahen might be too balanced for him — Kenny usually prefers players with one big tool (that’s what she . . . no time). Besides, it looks like he has Betemit lined up to play 3B.

by Gopherballs on Nov 14, 2008 12:14 PM EST up 0 recs

but she did!

Mark Teahen = the white Wilson Betemit

I was actually joking about Vazquez, but now you’re just fueling my fire.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 14, 2008 12:30 PM EST up 0 recs

No, it is a joke

but I guess with Kenny you never know if he would take two expendable parts for a good player on whom he has inexplicably soured.

While he has never played enough for anyone to notice, Betemit is actually a decent little power hitter (his ISOP the last three years was 206, 225, 165, and his HR/FB was 18.0, 21.9, 13.6%).

by Gopherballs on Nov 14, 2008 12:42 PM EST up 0 recs

that 's what I thought, too

Of course, I still like Teahen…

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 14, 2008 12:45 PM EST up 0 recs

. . . as a 350-450 AB platoon/bench player

by Gopherballs on Nov 14, 2008 1:01 PM EST up 0 recs

True

but the Royals are already starting several guys like that, and 1 or 2 who are worse…

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 14, 2008 1:51 PM EST up 0 recs

Allow me to...

throw some more gasoline on the above-mentioned fire. Teahen would seem to be an ideal replacement for Swisher. He could play 1B, both corner OF’s, and back up the new 3B Betemit.

What is Vazquez signed for and for how long?

by Sweep_the_Leg on Nov 14, 2008 4:29 PM EST up 0 recs

I must be really missing something.

Being a traditionalist, I do value batting average, which Jacobs beat Swisher .247 to .219. For those of you who prefer OPS, the margin is greater—.812 for Jacobs and .743 for Swisher. Besides, all the Royals gave up is an easily replaceable middle reliever.

I have read Moneyball, and I still think the Athletics’ success was more based on the Zito/Hudson/Mulder rotation than emphasis on OBA.

by jbrocato on Nov 14, 2008 7:39 AM EST 0 recs

Also

That was Jacobs career best season and Swisher’s career worst. Both are likely to regress back to career norms.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Nov 14, 2008 9:40 AM EST up 0 recs

+1

read what Gopherballs posted about LD% above.

Also, defensively, at worst, Swisher is 1 win better a season than Jacobs.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 14, 2008 11:11 AM EST up 0 recs

If Trey Uses

Jacobs correctly, he’ll be a valuable asset. Has he ever played LF?

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Nov 14, 2008 12:09 PM EST up 0 recs

+1 on the a's success

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Nov 14, 2008 11:27 AM EST up 0 recs

More Jacobs commenting

The Star’s article this morning assured us that the Royals believe Jacobs is likely to outperform both Dunn and Burrell.

I guess that depends on how they define “outperform”.

Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!

by loyal2sdad on Nov 14, 2008 10:47 AM EST 0 recs

The Ghost Of Flanagan Lives On

Remember when he wrote that Guillen had earned his money becaue of all the homers and RBI?

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 14, 2008 11:12 AM EST up 0 recs

Maybe they meant defensively

although that’s perhaps even less likely than Jacobs outhitting them…

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 14, 2008 12:46 PM EST up 0 recs

maybe he is factoring in salaries as well (GIDP/$)?

The concept of progress acts as a protective mechanism to shield us from the terrors of the future. - Collected sayings of Muad'Dib

by buddyball on Nov 14, 2008 1:02 PM EST up 0 recs

Good point

and I hate to admit it, but he’s probably right about that Burrell, in particular, is going to be grossly overpaid

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 14, 2008 1:51 PM EST up 0 recs

OPS+, 2008

Jacobs 109
Swisher 92

OPS+, career

Jacobs 110
Swisher 112

Hell.. OPS+-wise.. Jacobs tops EVERYBODY on the Royals other than DeJesus and Aviles.

Hell.. OPS+-wise.. Jacobs tops EVERYBODY on the Royals other than DeJesus and Aviles.Now if only Dayton would get the fucking hint in regards to Ross Peter Gload. Replacing Gload with Jacobs is such an epic win that it cannot be measured by mere mortals.

Hell.. OPS+-wise.. Jacobs tops EVERYBODY on the Royals other than DeJesus and Aviles.Now if only Dayton would get the fucking hint in regards to Ross Peter Gload. Replacing Gload with Jacobs is such an epic win that it cannot be measured by mere mortals.Once Jacobs plays half of his games in a real baseball stadium and not in a converted football stadium, then he’ll at least look presentable to women and children.

by BHWick on Nov 14, 2008 1:44 PM EST 0 recs

What the hell

I think this damn board fucked with my post.

by BHWick on Nov 14, 2008 1:45 PM EST up 0 recs

OPS+ is mediocre

and doesn’t take into account position

defense

Or the superior pitching in the AL

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 14, 2008 1:52 PM EST up 0 recs

No doubt

Even if you use OPS+, you have to compare it by position.

Jacobs has played exclusively 1B. The MLB average for 1B last year was 118 OPS+ ( 272/353/464, 817 OPS)

Swisher has played a majority of his time in the OF, including almost a full season’s worth of time in CF over the last three years. The MLB average for the OF last year was:

LF: 110 OPS+ (269/344/442, 786 OPS).
CF: 101 OPS+ (268/334/420, 753 OPS)
RF: 113 OPS+ (276/347/451, 798 OPS)

Going by OPS+, Swisher has been an above average outfielder, while Jacobs has been a below average 1B. (And defensivly, Jacobs might be the worst fielding defensive 1B in the majors).

Another problem with looking only at OPS+ is that it does not take into account playing time. Jacobs, a severe platoon hitter (850 OPS career v RHP, 689 v LHP), has played 25% less time than Swisher (almost 500 plate appearances) over the last three years. Thus, Jacobs OPS+ is inflated by the fact that he rarely hits against LHP. Swisher, who has only a minor platoon split (797 OPS career v. RHP, 825 v. LHP), has significant additional value because he can play full-time (and does not need a pinch hitter in high leverage situations), whereas Jacobs is relegated to a platoon role (and needs a pinch hitter in high leverage situations if the other team brings in a LHP).

Finally, wOBA is a much better metric than OPS+ because it, in essence, properly weighs the value between the two components of OPS, OBA and SLG (10 points of OBA is worth about 18 points of SLG). For the last three years, here is how Swisher and Jacobs have compared to league average wOBA:

2006
.349 League Average (AL)
.378 Swisher
.345 Jacobs

2007
.341 League Average (AL)
.366 Swisher
.338 Jacobs

2008
.339 League Average (AL)
.328 Swisher
.338 Jacobs

Jacobs has been modestly below league average each year, while Swisher was far above league average in 2006 and 2007 before falling 10 points below average in 2008. Translated into runs or wins above average (and even assuming Jacobs as league average), Swisher on offense alone has been about 30 runs (10 wins) better than Jacobs over the three years.

by Gopherballs on Nov 14, 2008 2:58 PM EST up 0 recs

adn that doesn't even take into account the pitching difference between leagues

that’s another +.5 wins a year in favor of the Swish

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 14, 2008 3:01 PM EST up 0 recs

Not to mention that since Swisher can fill in at Center would have allowed the Royals to

not have to have a 4th outfileder because Pena and German can play backup corner of, which would have allowed us to carry another infielder and have the 3 man 1B/DH if we had traded Teahen for him.

Go Royals!

by BabyBlues on Nov 14, 2008 10:36 PM EST up 0 recs

And

this front page post is talking about how we should have gotten Swisher over Jacobs.

Swisher is either a first baseman who doesn’t hit well enough, a centerfielder who doesn’t field well enough, or a left fielder.

We’re clearly lacking in those guys.

by BHWick on Nov 14, 2008 3:30 PM EST up 0 recs

Should we make a bet?

I guess it’s a gutless internet bet of nothing versus nothing, but I will bet you that, given a minimum of 450 ABs each, that Swisher creates more runs/wins than Jacob in in 2009 according to al of the following stats: WPA/LI, wOBA-fied bRAA, b-r’s BtRns/Wins. And that’s straight offense — no positional adjustment, no defensive adjustments (this is like having them wrestle and giving Jacobs an AK-47, but I’m that confident).

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 14, 2008 3:37 PM EST up 0 recs