The Case For Juan Rivera

by philofthenorth on Nov 15, 2008 8:15 PM EST

By simply doing a Google search, I came across this:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/free-agent-bargain-juan-rivera/

This essentially confirms my judgement that he is the FA we should target this offseason. I think he's been forced out in Anaheim by his injury (a pretty severely broken leg if I recall) and hasn't really been given a chance to come back.

His fielding and OBA have received some criticism here, but I believe both have suffered from the injury. His career year (age 27) was .310/.362/.525, and his career 3/ is .284/.331/.468. I think he'll be somewhere inbetween those two lines next year, and he has blamed some of his fielding woes on playing LF; he's another rocket armed RF with somewhat limited range, which I expect to improve as he recovers from the injury.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/r/riverju01.shtml

I see his role with the Royals as being in effect the 4th OF/platoon with Teahen in RF. Given how fragile Hoagie has been, he'd see plenty of action against RHP's, too; his platoon splits are nearly neutral. I think I've already gone over the lineup with Rivera on the team.

Can we still stash Maier in Omaha for Hoagie's inevitable stint on the DL? I like Mitch for his defense and preternatural ability to foul off 10 pitches before K'ing. Getting Rivera, of course, means saying good-bye to TPJ, Gator and the G-Load. Gathright and Gload probably have some trade value, and TPJ could probably be DFA'd without losing him if we wanted him in Omaha.

Anyway, I'm thinking Rivera could be had for 1/$6m or 2/$10m; am I wrong? In a year where the upper tier FA's are out of our reach, I think Rivera is a good, logical choice for GMDM to add to the team. The addition of Jacobs, Shealy and Rivera would give the Royals the most pop on and off the bench they've had in recent memory, and we might never see Little Poppy in a big league uniform again. That's change I can approve.

OK, now tell me how wrong I am. I can take it; I'm a grown man! I'm 40! OK, I used to be 40, but you get the idea.

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I think many of us like Juan Rivera

He’s not the big impact bat that we’d all love to have, but he’d make a good value signing. The real question in my mind is how much would you pay for him, and how much will he go for on the open market. 1/6, 2/10 sounds reasonable. It’s hard for me to guess how much he’ll go for in this market.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 15, 2008 8:47 PM EST 0 recs

It's tough to know what to expect out of him

due to all of the time he’s missed with injuries. My thinking on him is that the “risk” in signing him is that he might produce well for the money we’d spend, but not be good enough to be a plus.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Nov 15, 2008 11:22 PM EST up 0 recs

Agreed

Juan Rivera is a solid ballplayer. He’s a complementary piece on a championship club. He’s kind of a younger version of Guillen with a little more OBP. I think his numbers are difficult to judge on their own merits due to his injuries and limited playing time. I would be happy if he’s our major FA signing this offseason since the others are way out of our price range (Dunn, Burrell, etc).

by lordbyronk on Nov 15, 2008 9:55 PM EST 0 recs

He's a lot like Guillen

whose signing, ironically (if predictably) means that that Royals may not be able to afford him. He wouldn’t be bad if he came cheap. He’s a crappy defender, but not so bad that he’s worse than a DH. Well, not quite yet. I haven’t seen too many projections for him.

Actually, you can just read my comments from when Royals Retro posted about this fangraphs piece a while back in this FanShot.

I guess I could take the Bill James projections for him as a rough guide to get his rate stats and is RV/700 and the prorate it all… usual caveats about the limits of the James projections and my competence in these matters apply.

James only has him projected for 99 games, understandably, but I’ll prorate for a “full” season at 700 PAs or so, assuming the league average batting performance for 2008 will be the same in 2009.

James projects him at .281/.327/.464/.794 with 13 homers in 317 ABs. wOBAing it up, that’s a .343 wOBA.

The RV/700 is 2.2.

CHONE projects his defense at -7 runs = minus 4.8 runs total below average. that’s approx minus .46 wins below average.

Subtract .75 wins for corner outfielder, that’s 1.16 below average.

Add 2.5 wins for AL nonpitcher replacement level = 1.34 WAR if he plays all season. At 85% playing time, that’s about 1.14 WAR.

Assuming $4.84M/yr per WAR… well, 1.14 isn’t on my current chart. Let’s call it 1.25 to give Juan a break and make it easier on me to guesstimate… something like 1/6.5, or 2/10, and he’s basically replacement level after that, assuming normal decline…

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 15, 2008 11:59 PM EST 0 recs

The 4 Man

Bench would be Backup Catcher (Buck or Pena), German, Shealy/Jacobs and Teahen/Rivera. This makes Aviles the only real SS on the squad, and Teahen would have to play CF when DDJ needs a blow or has hives or whatever always happens to him. German would play a lot more than he did last year. It’s a risky proposition on defense, and I somehow doubt the Moore/Hillman brain trust would go that way. We’d still be without the really big bat, but the overall power available would be far greater than last year. Besides, if Gload and TPJ are not on the squad, Hillman can’t play them; I can dream, can’t I?

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Nov 16, 2008 12:26 AM EST 0 recs

I'd much rather

Pay Jose Guillen 3 years $36 million!!!!!!

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Nov 16, 2008 8:27 PM EST 0 recs

Hey, he was every bit as good as Emil Brown

in 2005

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 16, 2008 8:44 PM EST up 0 recs

Actually, Rivera's Career

3/ and OPS+ is better, though admittedly a smaller sample and at a younger age, than Emil or Hoagie.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Nov 16, 2008 9:19 PM EST up 0 recs

oh yeah

no doubt that the trades and injuries really screwed him over. NY probably would have been better off, too, keeping him and Nick Johnson.

Emil’s obviously not as good, career-wise, but while his offense looks only “pretty good” in 2005 and 2006, once you figure in defense and the drop in AL league offense in 2006, he’s pretty impressive. Out of nowhere.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 16, 2008 9:48 PM EST up 0 recs

this is perhaps the first time I can recall disagreeing with you

But it seems like we’d be spending money on Rivera just for the sake of spending money. He may be an improvement over Teahen (although, most players would be), but I just don’t see the point in spending millions of dollars for what might amount to just a marginal upgrade. In fact, he sort of profiles as having the same strengths and deficiencies as Jacobs, just at a different position. (I’m happy to be corrected on that.)

At some point, we’ll hopefully be able to chase after a first-tier player, and I want to have as much cash on hand to do it. Given a choice, I’d prefer that we just spend our entire budget on one guy this offseason, rather than make a few minor upgrades at three or more positions. That’s probably a pipe dream, though.

This space intentionally left blank.

by marbotty on Nov 19, 2008 6:14 AM EST 0 recs

I understand the thought

but in another way, putting a bit less money into multiple players is a lower-risk proposition.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 19, 2008 9:44 AM EST up 0 recs

My Proposal Is

A short term deal, 2 years maximum, preferably one. I’d even pay a bit of a premium for the one year deal. The idea is to create platoons at 1B/DN (Butler/Sheaely at 1B and Butler/Jacobs at DH) and in RF. Teahen facing more RHP’s would bring his offense up to COF range, and Rivera would see plenty of time in LF when DDJ has hives or whatever. Now that we have Crisp and are trying to deal Guillen, this move makes even more sense to me.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Nov 21, 2008 11:41 PM EST up 0 recs