Hot Stove Preview- AL Central

What Should They Do? There are two somewhat radical moves that the Royals could consider:

1. Recognize that most closers have short lifespans, that the bullpen is fairly deep behind him, and that his trade value will never be higher, and move Joakim Soria for a premium corner outfield talent.
2. Decide that they're actually fairly close to contention, and increase payroll by $20 million, hopefully using more discernment in the free-agent market than the sort that brought them Jose Guillen.

Absent doing one of those two things, the Royals are going to be in a holding pattern of some kind or another, with an outside chance of contention if things break just perfectly, but more likely to finish once again with a win total somewhere in the seventies. Sometimes there are no magic bullets and a holding pattern is the best that a team can do, particularly if they have limited financial resources—Kansas City may well be one of those cases. However, Dayton Moore ought to at least be contemplating these sorts of alternatives.

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Trade Soria for a good corner outfielder?

Hmmm, seems like I’ve heard that somewhere before…

I’m just glad it’s Silver that agrees with my brilliance, and not one of the, um, others.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 17, 2008 2:34 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

silver is big on selling high...

IFIRC he’s been big on trading Meche for the last year as well

i’d rather trade meche and convert soria to a starter than just trade soria, although who knows what the market might be

a team in a large media market with a saves-fixation may hugely overpay for soria and make it worthwhile…

bring on the mets

by royalsreview on Nov 17, 2008 2:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm assuming that the current regime won't move Soria to the rotation

that changes things.

If Zack really isn’t going to re-sign, then obviously he’s the one who needs to be traded.

The Mets seem like an ideal target, but do they have a young corner outfielder to trade? The only two offensive players they have that remotely fit the Royals needs are David Wright (Gordon to LF/RF) and Jose Reyes (Aviles to 2B). Somehow I doubt the Mets will go for that.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 17, 2008 2:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

By the way

I can’t read the Silver piece without a subscription, so I don’t know what he says, but I hope that fans here realize (and the projections that are coming out increasingly make this obvious) that Guillen is a much bigger problem in the outfield than Teahen, and that’ s not even counting his salary. Even if you think that he’s likely to be as good or better than Teahen offensively (he’s not), Teahen is at least one win better on defense.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 17, 2008 2:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

What Do They Need? The Royals have made progress toward having at least adequate alternatives at more and more positions, though there’s arguably an exception at second base depending on what you think of Alberto Callaspo, and clearly an exception in the outfield, which is a complete mess behind David DeJesus (and a Chernobyl-like wasteland if the Royals decide that Joey Gathright should be an everyday player again). The starting pitching is a little deeper than it used to be, but adding another arm wouldn’t hurt.

…

What Are They Likely To Do? The plan seems to be to shuffle the deck chairs somewhat in the outfield, moving DeJesus to a corner to make room for a better defensive center fielder. I’m not sure how much this helps, although Jose Guillen is part of the problem rather than part of the solution, and the disappointing Mark Teahen may be as well; DeJesus in a corner pushes one of those two aside, but will it be to make space for a merely offensively-adequate center fielder? It also looks like the Royals may trade for a second baseman. This too I’d consider a mistake; while Callaspo is no great shakes, the club has bigger problems to worry about.

by royalsreview on Nov 17, 2008 3:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Teahen is better than Guillen defensively, for sure

But arguing that Guillen is not better than Teahen offensively is much harder to substantiate based on the numbers.

Teabag has exactly one season in which he was above league average offensively—2006. Guillen’s injury-shortened 2006 season aside, 2008 was the first year since 2003 that he was below average offensively, but even then, his OPS+ was five points higher than Teahen. We like to rip on Guillen (justifiably) for his horrific OBP, but Teahen’s 2008 OBP was a likewise abysmal .313. Despite the uptick in Teahen’s HR count, his SLG still declined from 2007 to 2008, and his BA and OBP declined substantially. Guillen consistently slugs higher than Teahen.

And I know, Teahen is five years younger than JoGui and (as far as we know), has never been on ‘roids. But I can’t see Teahen getting much better than he is now, and where he is now is NOT an offensive improvement over Jose Guillen.

by DarthYoshi on Nov 17, 2008 3:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Well, check the BJ projections

not great, but they tend to favor guys like Jose Guillen, and they have him several runs worse than Guillen.
’
Jose Guillen hasn’t been a average or better player overall since 2005. In 2006 he was replacement level, 2007 he was below average (yes, he hit well, but his defense fell off a cliff and has never recovered), and this year he was replacement level or below. As I’ve posted before, Guillen three-year ProPs show that, rather than an “injury year” (which for some reason some people think isn’t part of a player’s performance history for projection), a “typical” 2007, and an unlucky year, throughout he shows himself to be about a .770 OPS hitter.

Guillen is done. He’ll be lucky to be a 1.2 WAR player in 2009. If he get’s hot May/JUne, the Royals should trade him faster than you can say “Juan Gonzalez.”

Teahen might be worse than that, but that would be Teahen’s pessimistic projection. Their PrOPS were almost equal this year. Teahen’s problem is that he has a third-baseman’s bat with the defensive abilities of an above average corner OF.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 17, 2008 3:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't dispute the awful state of Guillen's defense

…and holistically, Teahen is likely the better player. I’m just saying that Teahen > Guillen purely from an offensive approach is probably not as easily evidenced.

Guillen will decline faster than Teahen, sure. But Teahen’s output is already declining just fine on its own. I have very little faith in both players.

by DarthYoshi on Nov 17, 2008 3:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree that the offensive argument is harder to make

keep in mind OBP>SLG, though. Teahen was horrible this year, but suffered from much worse luck on balls in play that Guillen did.

It will be interesting to see what ZiPS and CHONE come up with.

I do expect Guillen to be a bit better next year, but I really don’t think he was that far below his “true talent” level this year.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 17, 2008 3:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Total RV/700 2006-2008

Teahen 8.5
Guillen -12.6

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 17, 2008 3:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Just Speculation

From an old man, but Teahen is still fairly young. He’s coming off an injury year (2007) and a year where he was tinkering with his stance and approach at the plate, trying to pull more and increase his power.

I had a chance meeting with his college teammate Jason Waugh (http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=15396) and talked baseball with him for about 15 minutes. He says Teahen has always hit the ball the other way, and credited his 2006 power surge to George Brett’s counsel. I’ve always believed if he hits the ball to LF effectively he’ll get pitches to pull. Maybe we should try a season of Teahen in RF, period, and letting Mark be Mark at the plate. It might be crazy enough to work.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Nov 18, 2008 1:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

+10

Every projection I’ve seen so far this year — well, I guess it’s just James and Marcels — have Teahen as above league average. And neither system, as far as I know, takes any account of batted-ball data. That doesn’t mean he’s a star, but with his defense, he has a reasonable shot at being a league-average corner outfielder. Not glamorous, but certainly no more of a hole or question mark than second base or the other corner of the outfield. If Callaspo’s going to get a full year given past performance, Teahen sure should.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 18, 2008 2:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Guillen's problem

is that he has the defensive abilities of Matt Stairs, along with Stair’s platoon problem — except that he’s right-handed.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 17, 2008 3:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

so we should get matt stairs?

Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.

by 306008 on Nov 18, 2008 12:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I went to Baseball Reference.com

and neutralized their career numbers.
It is quick, easy, and imperfect, but career wise, Teahen would create 2 more runs per year than Jose. When you add to that his age, his fielding advantage, and his baserunning ( judgement, first to third, second to home, outs on the basepaths etc.) as well as being a part of a team, Teahen is clearly the superior, as well as less expensive, player.
I would, of course like a much better than average player, but of the 2 we have now, I think it is obvious

by KHAZAD on Nov 17, 2008 6:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

For Al position player projections

a 2.5 wins for Wins above replacement

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 17, 2008 6:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

or about 26 runs for RAR

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 17, 2008 6:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Anyway

R/C may not be the best stat (Batting Runs/Wins is better) but you make a good point. Tango’s Marcels came out today, and while they’re (meant to be) the most basic projections they are, they also project Teahen as better.

“acerage” is a fine baseline , not perfect, of course, but replacement level is determined from establishing league average.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 17, 2008 6:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

did Moises Alou ever cycle through the ATL?

no really, you’re right… i wonder if the mets have any prospects?

oh well, this trade has absolutely no chance of happening

yes, closers are over-rated, but our leadership is precisely the kind of group that ALSO over-rates them

by royalsreview on Nov 17, 2008 2:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

This was the subject of an earlier thread

…but who do the Mets have who we would really want? Their farm system is still decimated from the Santana trade. Any trade talks would have to start with Fernando Martinez, but I personally am not a big fan of him.

I think we could potentially get more from a team looking to convert Soria to a starter—I think the Royals could probably sell Soria as a future starter if they wanted to. His extremely club-friendly contract should help, but on the flip side, I am with d_f that Soria’s contract means that ZG should be the one to be traded of he (Zack) doesn’t want to sign an extension.

That being said, I am not in favor of trading Soria, unless another team made us an offer so good that we would be insane to turn down.

by DarthYoshi on Nov 17, 2008 2:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

LIke what would be that kind of offer

I’d take Braun or Markakis in a second and leave laughing if Soria can’t start. Heck, if he can’t start, then Kemp is a hell of a deal, too, since Ramirez has been so dominant in 2008 and 2006.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 17, 2008 2:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I thought trading Soria was MY idea!

We can share it. Nate is just a johnny come lately.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 17, 2008 5:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I told you he was stealing from this blog!

I think we also started the “Mike Jacobs sucks” thing, which was then picked up by Rany, JoPo, Christina Kahrl, Keith Law… those people are all loaded, right?

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 17, 2008 5:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I stated a month ago that the Royals won't be contending next year

Just wait, a few months from now all of the 2008 preview stories in the mainstream sports media will be stealing that from me too. It’s just not right what they do to us.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 17, 2008 5:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

when we're done

all Rany’s gonna have left is a garage full of expired E-Miacin

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 17, 2008 5:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

We're making his job so easy

Every time he wants to write a column or a blog post, he can just come here, steal one of our articles, change a dozen adjectives and add in voluminous pozterisks about Zagnut Bars©.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 17, 2008 5:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

My targets

These guys have their decline phases hopefully a couple years off. Listed in order of my preference. I’m not sure how attainable they are — Braun and Markakis probably aren’t realistic, but who knows. I’m not saying to necessarily trade Soria straight up for any of these guys, but here goes.

1) Ryan Braun
2) Nick Markakis
3) Matt Kempo
4) Alex Rios
5) Andre Ethier

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 17, 2008 2:50 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Kemp over Ethier simply because he's younger

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 17, 2008 2:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Aaron Cunningham is my near-ready outfield prospect of the week

He does not project as a star or stand out in any one category, but makes contact, takes his walks, hits for power, and might have the defensive chops to play at least Nick Swisher-level CF for a couple of years. And he would not cost Soria.

by Gopherballs on Nov 17, 2008 4:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not to rant, but do we even want Billy Beane to have Dayton Moore’s number? Especially when it comes to position pplayers?

It’s one thing to go toe-to-toe with Krazy Kenny Williams, but somehow I think if Dayton and Mr. Beame talked, the Royals would end up with Jack Cust, Matt Maroth, and Sean Gallagher for the low-low price of Zack Greinke and BIlly Butler.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 17, 2008 5:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe the Beane who traded away Bonderman picks up the phone this time

by Gopherballs on Nov 17, 2008 5:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I can't remember what he got for that

I bet that was Ricciardi, anyway!

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 17, 2008 5:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That trade

Tigers got Bonderman, Franklyn German and Carlos Pena
A’s got John-Ford Griffin, Jason Arnold, Ted Lilly and Cash

Yikes. Even the best have some bad ones on their resume.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 17, 2008 5:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't see how Braun could be going on the decline

but I guess it’s possible

by I need more Esteban on Nov 18, 2008 12:28 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

yeah, that's why I want him

he’s young — his decline phase is realtively far off. Although baseball players decline earlier that we expect them to.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 18, 2008 12:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Obviously,

Glass has more or less ruled out the 2nd option already. Yes, they speculate that they COULD go to 70 million, but that’s a far cry from adding the 20 million suggested by Silver. Adding only 10 million LACKS the impact necessary to push this team into contention, if they actually do conclude they are closer than everyone thinks.

That leaves option #1, which I SERIOUSLY doubt Moore is even remotely considering, at least based on comments from him the past several months.

That means the either the Royals simply disagree with Silver, or that Silver’s explanation that sometimes a holding pattern is an acceptable thing to do is the Royal’s take as well.

This brings me back to my chief concern with Dayton Moore – I am entirely unsure about what he REALLY thinks, and what the plan ACTUALLY is. He has said he’s tired of giving young players free passes, then says he will be limited in adding FA pieces to replace said young players. (I’m not necessarily being critical of him – just frustrated at the lack of information. I really am OK with whichever direction they go – just make up your mind and be HONEST with the fans!!!!!!!!!!!!!)

Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!

by loyal2sdad on Nov 17, 2008 3:17 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I'm with you...

I don’t know how Moore gets to “contemplate” the alternative of spending another $20 million. That seems to be squarely within Mr. Glass’ discretion. I’m sure if it were up to Dayton, he’d be dropping at least another $30 million per on free agents.

If the Royals are going to trade pitching, then Greinke makes the most sense. Whether Soria stays in the pen or not, his contract alone makes him the more valuable keeper for the Royals. (Otherwise, Moore would just go with the “spend another $20 million” second option.)

As far as Dayton’s comments to the fans/public…while I agree that a team should keep its fans more or less informed regarding the direction of the team, I also don’t think he’s obligated to tell us all exactly what he’s thinking and what his master plan is. There is definitely something to be gained by saying one thing in public (i.e. to other GM’s) and then doing something different in closed door trade/free agent talks.

by Sweep_the_Leg on Nov 17, 2008 5:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Guillen has to be worth $1 to someone, right?

We need only find a team who could be in contention, not in the AL Central, who needs a corner outfield bat with power (97 RBI, sparkle sparkle: 20 HR, sparkle sparkle: bounce back, sparkle sparkle).

My goal is to find a team who would take the whole contract, even if we had to throw something else in to get them to do it. It would basically be moving talent to open up payroll. Teams who could fit the bill and could eat the whole contract:

Blue Jays – Could feasibly want someone to bridge the gap between now and Travis Snider. Would provide an above average trading chip (not to the Royals, but in general) for a middle infielder. Additional advantage, could move Guillen to DH if necessary to allow Snider to play the OF.

Yankees – Would involve moving Damon back to CF, which is unbelievably unlikely. Could allow an opening for a Damon/Matsui/Nady trade to net starting pitching. Is it possible we could throw in a Hiram or Bannister as a low cost back of the rotation option to sweeten the pot?

Rangers – More than likely would move him to DH, and would want some pitching as well to take on the whole contract.

Braves – Could stick him out in LF, dump him at the deadline? Hampton money came off the books this year.

Mets – would require some bullpen assistance, but could afford the whole deal. Mahay + Guillen would be affordable for them, wouldn’t it?

Dodgers – Add in Teahen (the ready made 3b), and they should be able to handle Guillen’s deal. It would relegate Juan Pierre back to 4th outfielder status, but some talk indicates they might just release him anyway.

My basic argument would be, you may have to shed a little bit of talent (Mahay, Banny, Hiram) to get rid of the payroll, but that 12 million could be crucial to wrapping up a player you want. Dunn comes to mind.

by ajblobaum on Nov 17, 2008 6:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I like how you're thinking...

but I’m still not sure any of those teams would be willing to take on the contract, a significant chance for a continuing decline in performance, AND the likelihood of Jose Being Jose (i.e. inviting hometown fans to an impromptu MMA match on the field). No doubt it would have to be a team with room to spare on their payroll, and probably an AL team for a possible switch to at least part-time DH duty.

Ricciardi is crazy enough that he might do it. Of the teams you listed, I think it’s the most likely scenario. Keep in mind “most likely scenario” in this case means somewhere between a 0.5-2.0% chance of actually happening.

by Sweep_the_Leg on Nov 17, 2008 6:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I assure you... the Rangers are not interested.

GREINKE HO!!!!!

by oc on Nov 17, 2008 6:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Correction

The Rangers’ fans are not interested. We really have no idea what the various front offices around baseball are thinking.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 17, 2008 6:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The Rangers have a jamming of logs in the outfield and DH spot.

Unless he’s become a pitching mastermind of Zack Greinke-type sorcery in the last two months, I don’t know why the Rangers would entertain the idea.

GREINKE HO!!!!!

by oc on Nov 17, 2008 6:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think it would make sense for the Rangers either

I’m just saying none of us knows how our front offices (or anyone’s front office) truly think or feel about anything. So you can assure us that the Rangers shouldn’t be interested and in all likelihood would not be.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 17, 2008 6:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Conspiracy theory:

I wonder if Moore is trying to make the most of Greinke by packaging him with Guillen’s horrible contract.

GREINKE HO!!!!!

by oc on Nov 17, 2008 6:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Doubtful

If Moore is going to move Greinke, he will need to get quite a bit of talent in return. I could see a scenario where a Rosa/Cortes type is thrown in to get a team to take the whole deal, but absent that Moore just can’t afford play around with Greinke trade scenarios.

Strange secondary thought: Is it possible if Moore moves Guillen and lets say Cortes, that it frees up enough money for 09-13 to keep Greinke around?

by ajblobaum on Nov 17, 2008 6:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't know if that would make the most of Greinke

Adding a negative (Guillen) to a positive (Greinke) would likely just hurt the value of the return the Royals could get. That is, unless some team sees Guillen as a positive.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 17, 2008 6:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

But a negative (Guillen) alone probably won't get you much right now.

With two years and $24 million left… and everybody except the Yankees not super-sizing their payrolls.

GREINKE HO!!!!!

by oc on Nov 17, 2008 7:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Definitely

I don’t think Dayton Moore sees it this way, but most of us around here (and most of the sabermetric analysts, for whatever that’s worth) would say that it doesn’t matter what the Royals get in return for him. If the Royals could just part with his contract, or the vast majority of it, it’s a positive. We don’t care if we get a 28-year-old low-A piece of organizational filler. If someone will take him and that contract, we’ll give him.

Again, the “we” being those of us with no power to make this happen. I think Moore is going to stick with him. However if there’s some interest in him in June or July because he’s hitting ok, the Moore might be willing to trade him. It’s hard to say how Moore really feels about Guillen. As you would expect, all of his public comments about just about every Royals player are positive.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 17, 2008 9:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

How do the Rangers have a logjam at DH?

Can Blalock no longer play third, or have they just given up hope that he will ever be able to do anything but “hit”?

The Rangers would be the least likely scenario, in part because I think they’d actually want some real pitching in return because the need isn’t as great (thinking someone at least of Hochevar’s talent level, maybe a Cortes?).

by ajblobaum on Nov 17, 2008 6:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Blalock's recent history of injuries (rib removal, wrist) would suggest he is no longer cut out to play third.

It was perceived at first to be a favor to the organization… for Blalock to move to first base since the Chris Shelton and Ben Broussard experiments had failed miserably to open the season.

But reading between the lines…Blalock begged the front-office to move him to first so he could minimize his defensive workload and have a better chance to stay healthy… thus helping him regain his value… in what is now the last deal of his contract.

But, seeing as how the Rangers aren’t likely to bring back Milton Bradley, Blalock is the current DH incumbent and is merely keeping the seat warm for Max Ramirez or Chris Davis.

If Chris Davis were to be dealt however, with uber-prospect Justin Smoak on the rise, Blalock’s role might change.

GREINKE HO!!!!!

by oc on Nov 17, 2008 6:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

So, yeah... Blalock, Davis and Ramirez are your carousel of DH / 1B candidates... until Mark Teixeira-clone Justin Smoak arrives circa July 2009.

Then it gets hairy.

GREINKE HO!!!!!

by oc on Nov 17, 2008 7:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Most likely scenario

Out of all of those seems to me to be the Dodgers, in part because they would fill two holes and they are in an unbelievably weird position in terms of team payroll. They have 4 players (Schmidt, Kuroda, Pierre, and A. Jones) signed for an estimated 54 million this year (assuming they pay out the signing bonuses yearly in similar amounts). Additionally, they have a pile of players who will go to arb including Proctor, Saito, and Brazoban (who cost about 3.5 mill last year). They also have a bunch of potential Super 2 players in Ethier, Billingsley, Loney, Martin, Kemp, and possibly DeWitt. Their payroll after arb w/o free agents could be anywhere from 60 million up to 70 million depending on who qualifies as a super 2.

If they add in Guillen and Teahen, their payroll would likely be around 85 million without any free agent signings and leave them with holes at SS, at least 1 SP (depending on Schmidt’s health). That would leave room for an O. Cabrera or even a Furcal signing along with a non-Sabathia free agent pitcher.

The good news for the Dodgers (and Royals’ fans) is that they shed 12.1 million on A. Jones, around 10 million on Schmidt, while only picking up about 3 million on Kuroda after 2009. Basically, they would be trading A. Jones for Jose Guillen in 2010, while still having the most expensive 4th OF in baseball. They would also have around 7 million or so to play with by losing Schmidt.

Long story short, if they want Giullen and Teahen for a bag of balls and B or C level prospect, they could absolutely afford it both in terms of minor league talent and payroll.

by ajblobaum on Nov 17, 2008 6:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Wow, just entertaining the possibility of dumping Guillen is exciting.

I really do think he is the biggest obstacle to sorting out this outfield thing. No defense, declining offense (of Guillen) makes the Teahen quandary look positively inviting. Frees up money and opens up position options.

by Steve Hovley on Nov 17, 2008 6:18 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

do it

Let’s really rebuild – Greinke, Buck and Rosa for Antonelli, Le Blanc, Hunter and Hundley

by Scutch on Nov 17, 2008 9:06 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

And whoever else the Padres have

That deal would blow. Not to mention the Padres are rebuilding themselves…

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Nov 17, 2008 10:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think after next year is the

time to really invest some money. It’s still so early in this process for Moore and it’s hard for fans to be patient and writers who really don’t know much about the team to evaluate.

I’m most interested next season in how young major league players progress (Gordon, Butler, Hochevar maybe even Aviles) and where minor league major prospects play and how they do (Ka’ahuie, Moustakas, Hosmer, Melville).

As for trading, if the deal is right we should do it, I just love the young players that are trading chips for us. It would suck to see them go, but I guess if it was for the greater good than it would be worth it.

by I need more Esteban on Nov 18, 2008 12:38 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

What do you think is wrong with what's quoted from Silver?

Here are some things I gleaned from the quoted passages

1. Soria is good
2. Closers are overrated and fungible
3. Soria has a contract and youth that makes him a good trading chip
4.
4. The Royals seem to want to move DDJ out of center, but don’t have a ready replacement on hand
5. Joey Gathright sucks
6. Jose Guillen, Is paid as if he’s Adam Dunn, but sucks almost as bad as Gathright once you realize that losing runs on defense counts, too
7. Mark Teahen isn’t exactly an All-Star candidate, either, but he’s probably better than Guillen, not that that’s saying much
8. Dayton Moore seems intent on finding another middle infielder, because he rightly sees that Alberto Callaspo probably isn’t a long-term solution, but nonetheless the outfield is a bigger issue.

All these things seem true, most of them obviously so. What did Silver get wrong?

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 18, 2008 12:55 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Gathright is better then Guillen. he is a good 4th ourfielder/pinch runner defensive replacement.

Guillen isn’t good in any 25 man roster postion an is really expensive.

Go Royals!

by BabyBlues on Nov 18, 2008 10:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

well, for the money, of coures

I guess you could make the argument Gathright’s just as good if he can play good defense in center. But his bat is really bad. Really, really bad. Pinch running makes almost no difference over the course of an 162 game season.

Straight up, I’d still say Guillen is a bit better — he projects as just above replacement level or so.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 18, 2008 11:17 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

What did Nate get "wrong?"

1. I think he greatly undervalues the assets of Meche and Greinke as a 1/2 in the AL. With the number of innings those two are capable of throwing, it allows some room for 3-5 to be less bullpen friendly.
2. I think he undervalues our bullpen last year, as it was pretty solid in terms of long term stability when looking at K rates and BB rates.
3. I think he undervalued the ability for Gordon and Butler to begin an upswing next year, based mostly on minor league track record, where they were selected, bonuses, etc. I think that PECOTA will bear that out.
4. I think he overstates the outfield problem, if only that it is one that DM has caused through a terrible trade (Gathright) and a bad signing (Guillen).
5. I think he underrates Soria’s value in part because he may be pulling Lidge duty next year and could get to 100 innings if used in a fireman role. If the Royals do that, they could raise his value even more.

by ajblobaum on Nov 18, 2008 2:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

OK, that's what I was looking for

I only read the parts RR quotes. I think he’s dead right about where the OF problems are. He may understate Soria’s value to the Royals, but I do think he’s right about the trade value of Proven Closer™.

I agree that the bullpen is good, but really, Ramirez and Soria are currently the only sure things in it, and even they aren’t “sure things,” just as close as it gets for relievers.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 18, 2008 2:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I say...

Give JoGui on more year. :)

Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.

by 306008 on Nov 18, 2008 12:36 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Groan

I just wish we could just say goodbye once and for all to Teahen. I’m sure he’s a nice guy, team player, with GRIT and all. But, c’mon, it seems like we keep giving him too much credit for having a single 1 month hot streak several years ago. The guy has totally peaked and is done in my view.

DM claimed he was on the warpath and was going to blow this thing open. But, so far, it looks like not much of anything is going to happen. Granted, I know it’s much, much easier said than done. But, then, don’t say it.

by kabrink on Nov 18, 2008 3:27 PM EST reply actions 0 recs