Giants Sign Jeremy Affeldt

Go Get Em' Jeremy

about 1 month ago focs Comment 29 comments 1 recs |

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For Ron Mahay money (2 years/$8 million)

A rare nice move by Sabean.

by Gopherballs on Nov 17, 2008 4:12 PM EST 0 recs

That it was

ugh.

by focs on Nov 17, 2008 4:16 PM EST up 0 recs

This makes Will Ohman

the best lefty reliever available (non-proven-closer division). I like John Bale as a second lefty, but would rather spend the $2 million on Ohman.

by Gopherballs on Nov 17, 2008 4:49 PM EST up 0 recs

+1

Hey, Sabean also signed Josh Phelps! He’s like Mike Jacobs, only a little older, right-handed

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 17, 2008 5:14 PM EST up 0 recs

D'oh, meant to "cancel"

might as well finish:

…older, right-handed, and to play below-average defense at first.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 17, 2008 5:15 PM EST up 0 recs

That's a little pricey for Affeldt

He would have been a good value signing at a better price.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 17, 2008 5:18 PM EST 0 recs

Hey, for Sabean

that IS a value signing.

I’m not endorsing him, don’t get me wrong. He’s not pulling me in, after Kenny William’s one good season got me to re-evaluate him, and then he follows with the Swisher trade.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 17, 2008 5:22 PM EST up 0 recs

Williams career is an interesting mix of very good and very bad moves

If you evaluate any 12-month period of his career, you could easily come to the conclusion that he’s a very good or very bad manager. But I think if you look at the totality of the moves he’s made (and how lucky he got in 2005 with the perfect storm of career years his payers had), I think you have a manager who isn’t very good. Not awful, but certainly in the bottom half. Where in the bottom half is debatable.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 17, 2008 5:26 PM EST up 0 recs

no, I admit he's bad

Because even though he emptied the system to get them, Quentin and Swisher are two good young OFs… I just was so impressed that all the sudden he could even identify good players at this point… I guess I fell for the GM version of the “breakout myth,” as if previous years of Lee-for-Podsednik, etc. suddenly didn’t count as part of his projection.

What’s a good player analogy for Dayton Moore? Adam Dunn? Where we can’t decide if his bat overcomes his defensive deficencies and make him undervalued, or if his defensive cancels out most of the good stuff he does with the bat?

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 17, 2008 5:33 PM EST up 0 recs

I just was so impressed that all the sudden he could even identify good players at this point

I kind of think that’s what you get with GM’s whose player evaluation is primarily tools-based. There are some big hits (Quentin) and some big misses (I think giving up too much minor league talent for Swisher at the wrong time was a small miss and then trading him for peanuts was a huge miss). Unfortunately, that’s what Dayton Moore is looking like to me (See Meche for the former and Guillen for the latter). The difference is that KW his big hits and misses in both pitchers and position players, while DM’s hits come from one category and misses come from the other.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 17, 2008 5:49 PM EST up 0 recs

If Mahay is a good value at 2/$8m

so is Affeldt. His jump in strikeout rate and swinging strike rate were backed up by a 2 MPH increase in velocity, he has settled in as an extreme groundballer (54% last year), he can get righties out, and if anything, he was a little unlucky last year with BABIP.

by Gopherballs on Nov 17, 2008 5:35 PM EST up 0 recs

Not a bad signing

Some teams were eyeing Affeldt to be a closer. He may yet become a “PROVEN CLOSER”.

But we’ve been down this road before.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Nov 17, 2008 5:24 PM EST 0 recs

Question: how long does it take to becomes a

Proven Closer™? There’s all sorts of variables. If you’ve been a mere middling reliever before, and then you suddenly become a closer, are you a Proven Closer( tm)? Is Kerry Wood really a Proven Closer™?

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 17, 2008 5:34 PM EST up 0 recs

20 Saves

by Gopherballs on Nov 17, 2008 5:35 PM EST up 0 recs

Then teams should start a different mildly talented reliever each year?

Since just about any reliever would be able to get 20 saves, we could raise thier trade value!!!

Go Royals!

by BabyBlues on Nov 17, 2008 5:50 PM EST up 0 recs

That's what Billy Beane did for a long time (and, to some extent what he's still doing)

He turned a series of decent/good pitchers into decent/good closers, continually flipping them for players of more real value, or letting them go to free agency and racking up the compensation picks. It’s talked about in Moneyball.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 17, 2008 5:58 PM EST up 0 recs

It also failed once

In the ill-fated “Arthur Rhodes Experiment.”

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Nov 17, 2008 8:37 PM EST up 0 recs

was it legit progression

or was it…oh shit this is my contract year.

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Nov 17, 2008 5:44 PM EST 0 recs

whatever it was

it added 2 MPH to his average fastball while not affecting his high groundball rate.

by Gopherballs on Nov 17, 2008 6:24 PM EST up 0 recs

When a guy suddenly gains 2 mph on his fastball at age 29...

…I don’t know that we should expect that this is a new velocity plateau that he’ll maintain for a couple of years.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 17, 2008 6:29 PM EST up 0 recs

Except it is not a new plateau

He used to throw around 94 with the Royals. His velocity dropped in 2006 and 2007 before rebounding in 2008.

by Gopherballs on Nov 17, 2008 6:53 PM EST up 0 recs

Well, less than 94, but in the vicinity

But I really do think that in many ways, 2008 was an outlier in Affeldt’s career. Before 2008, his career K/9 was about 6.5. In 2008, it was 9.19. Is there any reason to believe the outlier is the real deal and the rest of his career is an aberration?

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 17, 2008 9:30 PM EST up 0 recs

93.7 MPH

Affedlt has been a decent pitcher for awhile:

2005 3.99 FIP, 52.8% GB%
2006 5.65 FIP, 49.7% GB%
2007 4.17 FIP, 53.0% GB%
2008 3.66 FIP, 54.4% GB%

2006 was a disaster for him (4.44 K/9, 5.09 BB/9), but he was over 7 K/9 in 2005 and 2007. His 2007 BB/9 was a bit misleading too because of the 9 IBB in only 59 IP. Minus the IBB, his BB/9 last year was 3.66. 2008 was Affeldt’s best season, but it did not come completely out of nowhere. And unlike a lot of career years, Affeldt’s was backed up by an objective change in his pitching — a 2 MPH bump in velocity.

by Gopherballs on Nov 18, 2008 12:19 AM EST up 0 recs