Soria as a starter - Royals Review

Beat me to posting it!

Needs an “official” Soria tag…

I was surprised by his answer on leverage, but then, I’m still getting a “grip” on it (groan).

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 18, 2008 11:18 AM EST 0 recs

I was glad he did respond to me.

I tried for about 2 hours to get a grip on it and said “F—- it”, might as well ask the guy who create LI. I am hoping he could go into it a little more somewhere.

by TucsonRoyal on Nov 18, 2008 11:26 AM EST 0 recs

btw

you should have fanshotted your BtBS post over here

I didn’t totally get it, but it’s pretty freaking cool anyway

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 18, 2008 11:46 AM EST up 0 recs

I did have the just the Royal's stadiums on my blog:

On the bottom:

http://jeffsqanda.blogspot.com/2008/10/how-much-do-natural-effects-temperature.html

I was wanting to put my Soria post over here, but wanted to incorporate LI into it. I would also like to have a quote from Soria if he would prefer to start or relive.

by TucsonRoyal on Nov 18, 2008 11:55 AM EST up 0 recs

"it’s crazy to keep him as a reliever."

Crazy like a fox!

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Nov 18, 2008 11:35 AM EST 0 recs

paradoxically

i’m starting to think that the only way he’ll ever start is if he gets injured, misses a ton of time, and in the meantime another closer emerges

by royalsreview on Nov 18, 2008 1:33 PM EST up 0 recs

Or if a top 3 starter or two gets injured

I think one of the reasons that the Royals aren’t seriously considering moving Soria to the rotation is that they think the rotation is in pretty good shape now and for the future. If something changes there (major injury, trade, etc.) I think they might re-think Soria.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 18, 2008 1:35 PM EST up 0 recs

Tango says as a starter he would be #20 in the league

Being #20 in the league would pretty much make him a #1 or #2 starter.

by TucsonRoyal on Nov 18, 2008 1:46 PM EST up 0 recs

at least #2 for sure

even if you “quintle” into 60s rather than 70s

It’s not worth it. I’m sure the Royals can rely on Davies, Banny, and Hochevar instead. Jacobs will make up any difference.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 18, 2008 2:09 PM EST up 0 recs

Yeah, there's no question that he'd make for a big improvement to the rotation

…and thus to the pitching staff, and thus to the team. Unfortunately, it is pretty clear that Moore, like most in baseball, overestimates the value of a dominant closer.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 18, 2008 2:09 PM EST up 0 recs

I think he is more in the Rivera category

At the very least, more so than most would like to admit.

The fastball has life, and the curve is instant death, but I’m not sure he’d be much more than a two pitch starter. Additionally, you’d have to stretch him out over the course of two-three years to keep within the recognized innings limitations. I’m not saying that is the lone reason to keep him in the pen, but if he were the fireman/swingman next year to get his innings around 100, that would be a great way to utilize him for the next year or two to prevent a gigantic innings spike.

If Moore and Bonzai used him as a fireman, it would make next year a lot more fun.

by ajblobaum on Nov 18, 2008 2:12 PM EST 0 recs

Rivera's a one-pitch pitcher, though, who had flamed out as a starter in the minors

that’s a major difference from Soria

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 18, 2008 2:15 PM EST up 0 recs

I thought he had an above average change up as well

Three pitches should be enough to do well. Plus his fastball has so much movement on it. He has more than three pitches alone when it comes to fastballs.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Nov 18, 2008 2:17 PM EST up 0 recs

Huh?

I think he is more in the Rivera category
At the very least, more so than most would like to admit.
The fastball has life, and the curve is instant death, but I’m not sure he’d be much more than a two pitch starter.

Two pitch starter? Where in the world do you get this? By all accounts Soria has 4 good pitches. Four. Rivera has one spectacular pitch and one pretty good one. So how is Soria in the “Rivera category”? How is Soria going to be only a two-pitch starter when he throws 4 pitches well as a closer and has five or six in his repertoire (according to comments by both him and Buck)? When you’re a starter, you throw those secondary pitches more, so you have the chance to develop them more, so his secondary pitches should get even better as a starter.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 18, 2008 2:18 PM EST up 0 recs

Unless I'm mistaken

Doesn’t he rarely throw the change up? He may have 4-6 pitches that he can throw as a reliever, but the development on those pitches should have come along in bullpens and offseason conditioning.

If you were to name his pitches, what would they be? I’d agree with retro that he has a 4-seam fastball with a lot of movement, a 2-seamer with more movement that looks like a slider, a curve, and a changeup.

I guess I was relying on year one Soria data, which shows him going fastball curve an awful lot (86%) and not year two Soria where he mixed in his changeup and “slider” more.

Just looking at his pitch fx data, I’d like to see some detail as to the outcomes on the slider and change before we determine that he has 4 solid offerings. I’d imagine that the curve outcomes are fantastic, and the fastball outcomes are ok as well. Anyone know where that data would be available?

by ajblobaum on Nov 18, 2008 2:46 PM EST up 0 recs

Doesn’t he rarely throw the change up?

Certainly. He’s a reliever, so he doesn’t need to throw his third or fourth pitch very much.

He may have 4-6 pitches that he can throw as a reliever, but the development on those pitches should have come along in bullpens and offseason conditioning.

Those pitches are already really good now. They are good enough to make him a #2 starter right now. And they should get even better. Of course, his innings per year should be increased incrementally instead of just throwing him in the deep end starting on opening day.

If you were to name his pitches, what would they be? I’d agree with retro that he has a 4-seam fastball with a lot of movement, a 2-seamer with more movement that looks like a slider, a curve, and a changeup.

Fastball, slider, change, curve. And that is what how the Pitch f/x data classifies what he throws.

I guess I was relying on year one Soria data, which shows him going fastball curve an awful lot (86%) and not year two Soria where he mixed in his changeup and "slider" more.

And as a reliever he’s always going to rely on his best pitches the most.

Just looking at his pitch fx data, I’d like to see some detail as to the outcomes on the slider and change before we determine that he has 4 solid offerings.

Ok, but in addition to the statistical record, we do have scouting reports and the comments of good analysts (like at BP, THT, etc.). They seem quite impressed with is 4-pitch repertoire.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 18, 2008 2:54 PM EST up 0 recs

Charts using pitch f/x data

http://baseball.bornbybits.com/plots/Joakim_Soria.html

He has 2 pitches classified as “curve”, one looks to be his slow slider, the other his nasty curve. If you look at the speed/vertical movement chart you’ll see 2 separate curve groupings. Anyways, he does have at least 4 above average pitches, and his fastball and curve are ++.

by AxDxMx on Nov 18, 2008 4:13 PM EST up 0 recs

From My Observations

Thanks to mlbtv, he throws the fastball and slider/curve to RHB’s, the fastball and change to LHB’s for his main 2 pitches. The slow curve (<70 mph) is his kill shot for both.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Nov 18, 2008 4:26 PM EST up 0 recs

side note

I like Rivera. Sue me (although I think he’s probably the one Yankee most-liked [or least despised] by the non-Yankee-fan public), but I wonder if the “second pitch” isn’t just the cut fastball when it doesn’t break… then after the game he and the catcher have an unspoken agreement to call it a “four-seamer.”

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 18, 2008 2:24 PM EST 0 recs

Are you suggesting that he's attempting to throw a cutter with every pitch?

I don’t think so. I think he has a 4-seam fastball which is a little faster and straighter. Mixing that pitch in 1/4 of the time actually makes the cutter more effective.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 18, 2008 2:27 PM EST up 0 recs

not really, I was just joking around

I’m just remembering a few years back after he blew a save, that years sub-replacement catcher de jour talked about calling for the “four-seamer” on the final pitch, and hence my silly theory arose.

JoPo isn’t helping our (probably hopeless) cause by constantly comparing Soria to Rivera, either.

Funny how the conversation at Tangos’ blog, from some of whom I assume aren’t Royals fans, parallels all the pro-starter points here: the number of pitches Soria has, the quality of his curveball, the lesser utility of a closer on a sub-.500 team…

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 18, 2008 2:31 PM EST up 0 recs

I salivate over seeing Soria's five-or-more pitch complement as a starter

And it really doesn’t do him justice to talk about him having five pitches, because he is the kind of pitcher who can and does alter each of his pitches frequently. What I mean by that is that he likes to add and subtract velocity and movement to each of his pitches frequently. His fastball doesn’t look the same any two times he throws it. The same goes for the rest of his pitches. In that way, he’s a lot like David Cone in the latter part of his career. In functional terms, he has an almost endless variety of pitches.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 18, 2008 2:41 PM EST up 0 recs

If he's really like Cone, he needs to stay in the bullpen long enough

to give him time to expose himself to some fans.

Is it the “rule of 75” for pitching increases?

I might get ripped for this, but while I think Soria is the better pitcher because of his number of pitches, I think both a statistical and “pitching” argument can be made for Ramirez being superior just as a reliever, anyway.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 18, 2008 2:45 PM EST up 0 recs

Is it the "rule of 75" for pitching increases?

Are you talking about increasing innings pitched?

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 18, 2008 2:55 PM EST up 0 recs

yeah,

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 18, 2008 3:00 PM EST up 0 recs

I thought it was the Rule of 30.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 18, 2008 3:04 PM EST up 0 recs

Had to look it up

It is Will Carroll’s rule (widely recognized and agreed with as the rule of thumb) that if a player’s IP increases by more than 30 from one year to the next, injury risk increases significantly.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 18, 2008 3:07 PM EST up 0 recs

I couldn't remember the number. 75 did seem high

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 18, 2008 3:08 PM EST up 0 recs

It would be nice though

Unfortunately, probably irrelevant for Soria and the Royals. :(

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 18, 2008 3:09 PM EST up 0 recs

Soria laughs at "rules"

You guys are discounting the fact he is “Mexican Tough”

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Nov 18, 2008 4:24 PM EST up 0 recs

For clarity

I’m mostly against plugging him into the starting rotation in 09 because you’d almost have to shut him down in late July early August to make sure he doesn’t get dead arm. I’d love to see the team start upping his innings by using him as a fireman/spot starter to get him up to around 100, then follow that by using him even more in those types of swing/closer situations to get him to around 140, and then plug him into the starting rotation.

by ajblobaum on Nov 18, 2008 2:49 PM EST 0 recs

well, they could so something like the Yankees did with Chamberlain

start him in the pen, graduallly increasing his innings, then get him starting full-time at or around the break

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 18, 2008 2:53 PM EST up 0 recs

The Royals could do it like they did with Greinke

How did that work out?

by TucsonRoyal on Nov 18, 2008 3:04 PM EST up 0 recs

I agree that he would have to be brought along slowly

Increase his innings by about 30 per year. What most are debating is the general issue of which role he’s best suited for and how he would best help the team: closer or starter. If the answer is the latter, then the only question is how does he get worked into that role.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 18, 2008 2:56 PM EST up 0 recs

no way ! should he not be the stopper

soria is the best thing to happen to royals games in like over a dcade or something

by Dani Woodward on Nov 18, 2008 3:08 PM EST 0 recs

I always wonder

How Mo Rivera would have done as a starter. I know he only has two pitches (which is more than a lot of current starters have), but his cutter breaks so much that is a pretty devastating pitch. And surely he could have learned a 3rd or 4th pitch, its just a matter of how effective it would have been.

Guess we’ll never know. But I think its silly to assume he wouldn’t have fared very well as a starter.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Nov 18, 2008 4:23 PM EST 0 recs

So, So, better as a reliver

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/psplit.cgi?n1=riverma01&year=1995#role-sprel

by TucsonRoyal on Nov 18, 2008 4:42 PM EST up 0 recs

Here's what I can't get out of my head

The idea of a 2011 playoff rotation consisting of Greinke, Soria, Meche, and either Hochevar, Bannister, Rosa, Cortes, or Davies as the 4th starter.

That rotation, if Soria does as predicted (and I think he could be as good or better than Greinke; i.e., I think the 3.8 projected ERA is too high for him. After all, he was closing while Zack was merely the setup man in 07), would most likely be the better rotation in ANY playoff matchup you could conceive. I think that, by itself, would set the Royals up for a potential championship, and would more than offset what is likely to be a middle-of-the-pack offense.

Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!

by loyal2sdad on Nov 18, 2008 4:58 PM EST 0 recs

keith law

thinks Soria should just be used in more 4-6 out scenarios. i do agree. i do not trust his slight frame and his mechanical deficiencies holding up over 180+ innings. throw him out there 85 innings or so. i think that would get good usage out of him.

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Nov 18, 2008 10:38 PM EST 0 recs

I've Suggested This

Before. In today’s 6 inning quality start age, a pitcher who can go 2 to 3 innings a couple of times a week and shut down the opposition regularly is arguably more valuable than a closer. Maybe we could be ahead of the curve for once.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Nov 19, 2008 12:17 AM EST up 0 recs