Dutton raises the possibility of swapping Teahen for Felix Pie, Ronny Cedeno, or Mike Fontenot.

Pie and Cedeno were familiar hot-stove names here last year, Fontenot not so much.

If the Royals do flip Teabag for either Cedeno or Fontenot, that will functionally be DM conceding that Callaspo is no longer the 2b of the future for the Royals.

I have mixed feelings on Pie—in spite of his horrendous MLB stats through two seasons, his minor-league numbers are hard to ignore, and acquiring him and shifting DDJ to left would place the Royals pretty well as OF defense goes, in spite of Guillen.

I’m no big fan of Teahen, but I’d probably ask for one of those three guys plus a throw-in for Teahen. Teahen is definitely more valuable than Fontenot, and probably a little more valuable than Cedeno. Pie…the jury is probably still out on him.

Thoughts?

I just can’t recall another GM breaking out with the “lies” card before…

Yea, that’s it.

snicker

I think you’re trying to put emotion into my sentence, when there isn’t meant to be any. I just find it amusing that out of the three (or so) major stories that have come out about the Royals this offseason (Teahen to the Indians, Jacobs, Butler), Moore has told reporters that two are “lies. Absolute lies, and you can print that.”, which is definitely not usual GM speak.*

* I also find it amusing when Bostoners talk about their “idears” at work and southerners talk about watering their garden with their “hosepipes”.

Pie has A LOT more power than Gathwrong.

I’d prefer Fontenot too, though. Very good hitter, could bat #2.

Teabag for Fontenot + low-level throw in = fine
Teabag for Pie + good low-level throw in = fine

Is that fair?

No, I don’t think that’s fair. Pie has never done anything in the majors, while having been given a shot. Teahen’s worst major league years are better than Pie’s best. And Pie is out of options, which also hurts his value. Fontenot has more in the way of performance as compared to Pie, but less in the way of tools. And his good performance comes from only one good partial season. And he’s 28. So either of them plus a throw-in is underselling Teahen. Teahen’s value is considerably higher than these guys because he’s an ok hitter, and can play 4 positions, including pretty good OF defense.

… so he’d have to pass thru waivers to be shipped to AAA.

You know the limitations of Marcel. Fontenot has been good for 243 MLB AB’s, period. And you should know that PECOTA, ZiPS and Chone will project him at much less than that. There’s a reason his career had a late start. He just isn’t very good. He could be a decent MLB 2B. Teahen is more valuable, period.

He can play OF

Every player who comes to the majors for the first time is a question mark. You never know how a guy from another league will perform in the majors. Fukudome came to the majors and performed well until the third week of June. From then on, he played like total crap, and that includes his OBA. He looks like a guy who hit well when major league pitchers didn’t yet know how to pitch to him, and once they figured him out, he couldn’t hit…at all. There’s no reason to believe he’ll ever be any good in the majors. Taking on Fukudome and his 3/38 contract would be amazingly stupid.

Gotta be a bit rough on Dayton to see that not only are his FA/trade acquisitions failing to unseat dumb ol’ Allard’s boys, but they’re actually being disposed of by AAA grinders like Mike Aviles, who not only replace TPJ, but in about 180 fewer PAs, are are about about 3-5 wins more than the $36 million dollar man.

But hey, Ryan Shealy could still surprise ya!

Anyhoo, don’t follow the NL that much. But after some reading and checking out available projections, Allow me to pontificate with numbers as if I have jack crap to contribute to this discussion. So here’s how I would rank the players discussed.

1) Fontenot
2) Pie
3) Cedeno

I’ll have to see what PECOTA and ZiPS say, but offhand I’d say that Teahen is a 1 run hitter, a +3 defender, -7.5 for corner OF25 runs for AL replacement level = 21.5 runs above replacement. He’s also 27 next year. That’s a league average position player in the NL, a bit below in the AL. It’s about 2 WAR. That might be a bit high or low, but it also doesn’t include his baserunning, which is excellent, although I don’t have numbers for it. Just learning about outfield arms. The THT ratings for 2008 aren’t out yet, but he was about +5 runs in 2007 (Mr. Arm JoGui was +1, which totally made up for his -21 range). I know people are sick of Teahen, but let’s not go nuts before we have all the evidence. If he’s still a +5 arm, then, well, the Royals might just have a 2.5 WAR player on their hand, whether that is evident to the fans or not. (GIven how many of them have a Kaegel-like excitement over Dayton Moore Specials like Mike Jacobs and Jose Guillen, I’m guessing “not.”)

Cedeno does look a lot like a rich man’s TPJ. I quick conversion of ZiPS has him as pretty much exactly replacement level on offense (-22 runs). His defense is supposed to be pretty good, but I don’t know if it’s that good. Maybe as a throw-in he could be a good utility infielder, given the uncertainty about Callaspo’s bat and Cedeno’s superior defense… Still, he definitely wouldn’t be worth being the main chip for Teahen.

Pie… the lack of options are a problem, since his bat really isn’t ready. He does profile as a pretty good defensive CF. CHONE projects him (probably relying a lot on scouting reports given lack of playing time) as a +5 run CF. His best offensive projection is, of course, James, which has him as about a -5 hitter. I think that’s pretty generous. Converting ZiPS over has him at about -14. Marcels is problematic for younger players with limited playing time, but it doesn’t like him, either. Not straight up. Like Gopherballs says, if you think his bat will keep developing, he can hold down the fort in CF. But otherwise, he’s a homeless man’s Franklin Gutierrez. IN other words, he’s no Ryan Langerhans. I’d say he’s 1.5 WAR at best at this point, although he’s young enough to still be developing. Not straight up for Teabag. Pie’s 2007 arm rating was just average.

Fontenot. Not sure where the hell he came from, and he came out of nowhere in Aviles-like fashion this year so much that he fooled Marcel into thinking he could OPS over .800 again. I highly doubt he’s a +14 run hitter. Nor do I think he’s the +11 run stud of the James projection. It’s hard to tell…

ZiPS is a bit more realistic. Although I don’t have ZiPS official league average yet, with a .338 wOBA I have Fontenot at -2.5 over a full season. I think that’s more conservative and realistic given his age and pedigree. Maybe not fair, but, hey.

As Gopherballs points out, he was a 11play or ~9 run player according to Dewan’s. PMR likes him ever more. He wasn’t nearly as good last year, although PMR still has him above average. CHONE’s projections (yeah, I know), as well as ZiPs, project his defense as almost perfectly average.

Indeed, Zips and Chone together have him at minus 2.5 offense, +1 defense, +2.5 position = +1 runs. +20 runs for NL replacement level = 21 runs above replacement. Of course, this excludes all the more optimistic projections. I’d say he’s about as valuble as Teahen, though. While he’s had better recent performance, he’s also in his decline phase, whereas teahen may still get better.

I’d say that if the Royals have to do this trade, Teahen + throw-in (JoGui!) for Fontenot and Pie would be a good deal for the Royals, if the Cubs would do it. Fontenot can hold down the fort. Indeed, there would be a nice symmetry between the old Grudz-German tag team and the Fontenot-Callaspo combo (older, declining but still underrated white guy backed up by a Latin guy with a sometimes good bat and bad defense). While Fontenot would be declining, in the meantime Pie might be developing into a decent CF. Or just the next Corey Patterson.

Not sure how to end that, but that’s just my two cents. I like the idea of Fontenot and Pie for Teahen. Of course, last time there was as Mark Teahen trade idea I liked (Teahen for Gootz) I got excited, only to see it turn into another crappy defensive player who might have a .320 OBP if everything breaks right. But you never now.

Competent position player acquisition — say it with me Dayton: Yes we can!

That means its true!!!!!

I’m still going to finish my boring post on Teahen, etc.

should be 1.75 WAR. Math mistake. That’s better, but still assumes he plays full-time. Still don’t think he’s as good as Ramirez, and he makes more than $5M/yr more…

…is that “some of our biggest strengths” (relievers) are something that Moore does a good job of finding. He’s a good bet to re-load effectively.