Coco Crisp Traded to Royals for Ramon Ramirez
Yuck. Really, Dayton?
about 3 years ago
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I don’t mind Crisp, but I really liked RamRam. Ah well, DM is good at finding relievers.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Upon a look at his stats
Completely underwhelming. We get just two years of a below average outfielder who makes a good amount of money and can play great defense, but has okay OBA skills, not much SLUG and very little upside. We didn’t give up a ton – RamRam is a really nice reliever, but probably replaceable – still, I’d rather we gave up actual talent to get young guys with real upside.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Nov 19, 2008 10:04 AM EST up reply actions
i'm genuinely curious and haven't looked up the stats
How much better is Coco than DJ or Mitch?
Don't Stop Believing!
Not better than DJ
Probably better than Mitch, but not by a ton. Has more power I think.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Nov 19, 2008 10:17 AM EST up reply actions
i didn't think he was
better than DJ, but i haven’t looked up any comparable stats or anything and assumed I was a homer. So if Coco is not any better than DJ, does the trade make any sense unless we now trade DJ?
Don't Stop Believing!
DM
Wants to move DJ to left and create a great defensive outfield.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Nov 19, 2008 10:31 AM EST up reply actions
DDJ's +9 projection in left
Surely outweighs Crisp’s minus 3 in CF and Guillen ’s -11 in right.
Marcels has Crisps about a win worse than Teahen with the bat.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 19, 2008 10:38 AM EST up reply actions
Crisp was significantly better defensively...
in 2007 and battled various injuries last year which may have negatively impacted his defensive metrics for 2008. I think you’re undervaluing his true defensive worth.
I'm just going off Chone's projections
which take age and past performance into account.
Injuries are part of a players performance history.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 19, 2008 10:40 AM EST up reply actions
well, if Dayteon doesn't make any other moves this one would elminate
Gload and Gathright.
Go Royals!
yeah
but why move the superior defender to a lesser position? It just made me think that DJ is on the block, which I would not be happy about unless we got a lot. I could be 100000% wrong, and I’d be happy to keep DJ in LF.
Don't Stop Believing!
If Fontenot isn't in the trade
it’s another dumbshit move
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 19, 2008 10:54 AM EST up reply actions
Coco should have
won a Gold Glove in CF in 2007. He has no arm to speak of (think Johnny Damon with just a little more strength in his arm) but he covers a ton of ground and can was a huge help to the Sox these past few years when in CF. He has battled some injuries in Boston after starting off well his first year here but was healthy down the stretch in ’08 and performed well (.305 ave, .368 obp in Aug and .375, .444 in Sept/Oct). Plus, he gives us a legitimate leadoff hitter and allows DeJesus to move out of the leadoff spot. I say not a bad pickup…
by Rhody Royals on Nov 19, 2008 11:42 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
positivity?
you might get banned…..
by I need more Esteban on Nov 19, 2008 11:43 AM EST up reply actions
I guess no matter how much we rave about the bullpen, Meche, etc.
pointing out that GMDM hasn’t acquired a single average position player is “unfair.”
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 19, 2008 11:45 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
No that is fair
but writing off pickups before they’ve played a game for us isn’t, to me. Is Crisp going to be a great pickup?….mmm I’m leaning towards no based on past performances and age, but can I remain optimistic that our FO knows what they’re doing? Yes.
by I need more Esteban on Nov 19, 2008 11:49 AM EST up reply actions
I'm not writing it off
I am criticizing it. Coco Crisp has played more than enough games to evaluate him. Games not in a KC Royals uniform also count for his projection.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 19, 2008 3:47 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, that .330 OBP will be a real boon to the team
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 19, 2008 11:44 AM EST up reply actions
Legit leadoff hitter?
Why, because he can steal bases? His OBA is 30 points below DJs.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Nov 19, 2008 11:50 AM EST up reply actions
The difference in '08
was only about 20 points and that was with Crisp being in and out of the lineup all year. His last two months of ‘08 were much better than the early part of the season when he was riding the pine because of the Sox high hopes for Ellsbury and because of injuries. Look, I’m not saying that Crisp is the be-all, end-all at leadoff hitters but he is more than capable of being a leadoff hitter and allows the Royals to move Dejesus out of the leadoff spot. It also gives them flexibility to either have Teahen come off the bench or to make another deal. They gave up a pretty good (not great) 27-year-old relief pitcher coming off a career year for a starting CF. I don’t think they gave up all that much for a year of a guy looking to rebuild his stock a little to where it was when the Sox got him.
by Rhody Royals on Nov 19, 2008 12:59 PM EST up reply actions
Except
It was right in line with his career OBA. He’s about a .330 OBA guy.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
But
That includes 2006 when Crisp was hurt (thumb injury?) from about the first week or so of the season and ended up at .317 and .330 in ’07 when, again, he was injuried. Otherwise, he is closer to .340. Not much of a difference but I think it helps a little. I just like being able to move Dejesus to a more productive spot in the lineup where, if Crisp and Aviles do their jobs, he can drive someone in.
Thanks for the discussion, I don’t usually get into these too often but like the back-and-forth. Out here in Sox nation it’s impossible to find anything to talk about that doesn’t revolve around the Sox or Pats (even the Celt’s fall short).
by Rhody Royals on Nov 19, 2008 1:10 PM EST up reply actions
Once again
Injuries and injury laden years are part of past performance and count toward the projection.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 19, 2008 3:47 PM EST up reply actions
IF ITS NOT BROKE, DON'T FIX IT
CHONE projections:
DDJ CF defense: +3
Crisp CF defense: minus 3
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 19, 2008 10:22 AM EST up reply actions
to be fair
PMR has Crisp as about average this year, and DDJ at minus 10 runs or so
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 19, 2008 10:48 AM EST up reply actions
projections are projections...
nobody knows until the season is over.
Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.
by 306008 on Nov 19, 2008 12:40 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Great, so let's just get a random assortment of players
sure, they all have projections, but who knows how it will turn out!
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 19, 2008 3:48 PM EST up reply actions
Noticed that too
It’s like Dayton decided to end the argument, by getting rid of the pieces being used in favor of it (Nunez,RamRam, Mahay will go too I bet).
Bad trade, on first glance
As I posted on the other thread:
Chone CF projection: minus 3
Marcels bRAA: minus 6.4
Arms ratings the past three years in CF:
2005: minus 16.5
2006: minus 4.9
2007: minus 0.2
Let’s generously call that minus 1
So… minus 10.4 = about Minus one win.
+.25 wins for CF + 2.5 wins for AL replacement = 2.25 minus 1 =
1.25 WAR player over full time. I guess that’s worth also $5.75M, but…
given that Ramirez outpitched Soria last year, this doesn’t look to smart. Well, at least we still have Leo Nunez.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
Don't forget the $8 million option for 2010!
Can’t wait to pick that up.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Nov 19, 2008 10:32 AM EST up reply actions
Mistake
should be 1.75 WAR. Math mistake. That’s better, but still assumes he plays full-time. Still don’t think he’s as good as Ramirez, and he makes more than $5M/yr more…
I’d make a joke, but I stil think we need about 5-10 more of these brilliant acquisitions before we have enough data to judge DMGM’s evaluation of position players.
At least crisp seems like a guy who will probably be above replacement level, which would make him better than Gload, TPJ, Gathright, Guillen, or even Callaspo this past year.
But they get to keep Soria as a closer, so that have that going for them.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 19, 2008 10:36 AM EST up reply actions
This is another one of those trades
where if you look at in a complete vacuum and ignore salaries, it doesn’t look too bad.
Once you start to stray outside of that vacuum though and look at salaries, service time, and other players affected, it’s not nearly as clear.
Agreed
I would put it this war: if you look at in a vacuum, it’s not too clear.
When you look at the other stuff, it’s clear that DMGM got the short end of the stick.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 19, 2008 10:41 AM EST up reply actions
"Given that Ramirez outpitched Soria last year."
…What?! Who are you kidding? – TL
[In 2008] Kila Ka’aihue had the best on-base percentage of any hitter in the minor leagues. - Joe Posnanski, 11/9/2008 ... Ergo, let's give him a shot at first base in KC in 2009.
in my face
Soria did have the superior ERA and more saves (AWESOME stat, by the way)
All Ramirez did was have a better FIP, xFIP, tRA, and pitch more innings.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 19, 2008 11:01 AM EST up reply actions
what the fuk is fip xfip tra
NOTHING..by your analysis Soria should have gotten traded for Crisp
Ramirez did have an ERA of like 10 last year. Moore simply thinks relievers are fickly and one year wonders. Gobble and Peralta were ok last year and sucked this year…..Nunez and Ramirez had career years and should be traded while their stock is high
What if Gobble and Peralta bounce back (i know its hard to imagine) and Ramirez and Nunez are awful next year…..
by GobbleforCyoung on Nov 19, 2008 2:12 PM EST up reply actions
Ramirez had an ERA of like 10 last year?
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 19, 2008 2:12 PM EST up reply actions
Gobble's sucked against RH batters for a long time
Trey just decided to have him face more of them than in years past, which lead to the overall crappy numbers.
Why undo it it
when the Royals just re-did it!
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 19, 2008 10:39 AM EST up reply actions
162 game average
Coco
YEARS G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
4.83 162 605 90 169 33 5 12 65 48 89 26 10 .280 .331 .409 .740
Teabag
YEARS G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
3.28 162 596 83 160 34 7 14 74 55 137 10 3 .268 .332 .421 .753
What gets me
Is that we’re probably going to deal either Teahen or DJ, and replace him with Crisp, which makes our offense WORSE. Wasn’t that our big problem last year? Offense?
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Nov 19, 2008 10:49 AM EST up reply actions
Well,
replacing Teahen/DDJ with Crisp is less of a downgrade next year than replacing them with Pie.
So there’s that.
That's true
but it doesn’t matter whether it’s offense or defense — the most generous projections have Crisp being equal to Teahen, but he’s older and more expensive. Needless to say, he far inferior to DDJ.
But hey, he’ll be better than Jose Guillen, and he’s not one of Allard’s boys, so slightly less embarrassment for DMGM = worth the money.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 19, 2008 10:56 AM EST up reply actions
Transaction oracle should have their projections for Crisp and Ramirez up soon
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
Dayton went Coo-Coo for Coco Crisp?
Go Royals!
The dichotomy
Between the reaction here and on Royals Corner is striking. The “this trade is AWESOME!!!111” posts are a bit much.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
I like how they've been one-starring your posts that aren't 100% in support of it
They’re a bit strong with their man-love of all things Dayton over there.
It hurts my feelings
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Nov 19, 2008 10:54 AM EST up reply actions
I can't read that place
I’m sorry, Retro, but you are a better person than me. Every time I read it, I think that most (not all) of the posters are morons, DMGM family members, or both.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 19, 2008 10:57 AM EST up reply actions
What's amazing is that some look at it in terms of
Jacobs > Gload
Crisp > Gathright
Big win, and all it cost was two relief pitchers !!!!!
When in actuality, it cost 4 relief pitchers, 3 of them very good, to get to average-to slightly below average production out of 1B and CF.
If you take a step back...
Moore traded two relievers coming off of career years for Jacobs and Crisp. Relievers are inherently un-predictable and replaceable. Jacobs would have had the third highest OPS on the team last year and he’s right handed. Crisp would have had the fourth highest OPS on the team last year and he plays a premium defensive position well.
I realize that there are flaws with Jacobs (terrible OBP, baserunning, defense) and Crisp (limited offensive upside, etc…) but these two players make the team better for the next couple of seasons and we only gave up two relievers. Could Moore have done better, I don’t know, but if he truly believes he can replace the two relievers adequately then he did improve the team for 2009.
by djk royal on Nov 19, 2008 10:50 AM EST reply actions 2 recs
As state above
In a vacuum, these are good “value” deals. Jacobs is more valuable than Nunez, Crisp more valuable than RamRam (arguably).
But these moves don’t make sense for a ballclub like this. We should be getting young guys with upside who don’t cost that much. Jacobs and Crisp are both near 30, make nearly $10 million combined, and both have below average to awful OBAs. Crisp actually makes our offense worse if we replace Teahen or DJ with him.
It seems like DM doesn’t want to give up much and wants to get guys with limited upside. I guess I’d rather he give up actual value to get players with actual upside once in awhile.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Nov 19, 2008 10:54 AM EST up reply actions
I think it's becoming obvious that GMDM want to win in 2009 and 2010.
by djk royal on Nov 19, 2008 10:56 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Yeah
he just doesn’t know how.
Look at combined stats — Jacobs and Crisp were both around replacement level players last year. They will cost around $9M this year. Nunez and Ramirez may not be great shakes (well, Ramirez was the third best _player_on the Royals last year behind Meche and Greinke, and one of the top 10 relievers in the AL, but I know what you’re saying), but together they’ll make less than $1M in 2009.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 19, 2008 10:59 AM EST up reply actions
I don't see how you can say Teahen is better than Crisp.
… when you factor in positions and defense.
I'm just going off the marcels and choneprojections, djk
that’s all. Then adjusting for position. The projections might be wrong.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 19, 2008 11:09 AM EST up reply actions
The projections may end up being right...
I just think it would inherently be hard for a projection to factor in injuries effectively. I think this may be a case where you would have to rely more on scouts.
thankyou
if you don’t think Rosa is going to come up and post a 3 something ERA well he will….Robinson Tejada already did that last year so expect him to improve….Gobble or Peralta will bounce back while the other will be D for A by May
Lets not forget Bale came off the DL and DOMINATED so Mahay and Bale are already set as left handed relievers
by GobbleforCyoung on Nov 19, 2008 2:19 PM EST up reply actions
you're assuming that Trey
will use Yimmy appropriately for him to bounce back.
Don't Stop Believing!
There's also...
…the douche bag factor. All you smart guys with all your fancy statistics, and intelligent analysis, blah blah blah, are missing one thing: the Royals just upped their douche bag quotient significantly.
by self loather on Nov 19, 2008 10:54 AM EST reply actions 3 recs
Hopefully this doesn't turn into an Eli Marerro situation
Guy who was playing on a playoff caliber team upset about being traded to the Royals.
I'm new...
to all these fancy-pants statistics. Is there a site you can point me to for Crisp’s and Jacob’s 2009 Doucheness Projections?
by Sweep_the_Leg on Nov 19, 2008 11:08 AM EST up reply actions
My, my, my
What negativity! How suprising!
Seriously, Ramirez looks like he’ll be a pretty good bullpen guy for the next few years, but I’m not so sure we can expect repeats of last year’s performance. His HR/9 over 7 years in the minors was 0.98. His MLB career HR/9 before last season was 0.75. Last year, it magically dropped to 0.25. You can probably credit some of that drop to leaving the rockies, but that’s a big drop, and we don’t know if it’s for real at this point.
Ramirez was traded at the height of his value of his career to date while Crisp was arguably traded at the low point of his career to date, and even now, it doesn’t look too one-sided. They’re about the same age, and should provide about the same value. The difference for the Royals the money which makes me not crazy about this deal. On the other hand, Coco Crisp helps the team a lot, especially if Teahen is traded for a middle infielder, and you can fill Ramirez’s spot from within for free by bringing up Carlos Rosa.
I think if you can complement this move by moving Teahen for a middle infielder and perhaps a middle reliever, you could be looking at a borderline contending Royals team in 2009. And you could be looking at Grienke signing a below market long term contract with the newly winning Royals. The trade isn’t fantastic, but it isn’t terrible, and it makes the team better.
There's buying low
and there’s buying guys who have $9M in salaries coming off replacement-level campaigns.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 19, 2008 11:00 AM EST up reply actions
Come on bro
This trade is right up your alley—it’s a trade for defense, the new OBP! Crisp was injured all last year, so the stats weren’t great, but he is widely considered a very good defensive centerfielder and until last year, the stats widely agreed. Throwing out last year’s season of playing through injuries, Crisp is probably 5-10 runs better than DDJ in CF, and DDJ is probably 4-6 million runs better than Guillen in LF. How many wins does 6,000,010 runs translate to over the course of a season?
Once again
age and injuries are part of performance history…
Funny post, though
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 19, 2008 11:11 AM EST up reply actions
+ 1
I think if you lined up 10 scouts nearly all of them would take Crisp over DDJ defensively. This ultimately improves our outfield defense in LF and CF.
Well, OK,
I guess I think objective performance rather than scouting opinion is what wins games, but that’s just me.
/snark
Sorry… Couldn’t resist. Yeah, I would have thought Crisp was better, too. Just give me a minute and I’ll post the evidence I’m basing my opionions on step-by-step.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 19, 2008 11:12 AM EST up reply actions
+1
My stories a lot like yours only more interesting because it involves robots!
No doubt this improves our defense
It also worsens our offense
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Nov 19, 2008 11:22 AM EST up reply actions
Teahen/Crisp
That much of a drop? Really? Even factoring in improved baserunning and the boost you can now get by trading Teahen?
I’m calling the offense either improved or unharmed by this move. Where it hurts you is pitching. Specifically, the bullpen. Where Ramirez played.
I am not going to speculate as to future moves
I am saying as of today, if Crisp starts and Teahen sits, our offense is now worse.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Nov 19, 2008 11:27 AM EST up reply actions
Probably not
But what’s the point of making our offense slightly worse and adding $5.5 million to the payroll and losing our second best reliever? To make our defense better?
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Nov 19, 2008 11:39 AM EST up reply actions
I'm not defending or lambasting the trade yet...
My initial reaction was WTF!!!! but I’m starting to even out on it a little bit.
I think the point that someone made about the inherent unpredictability of Middle Relief pitchers liked RamRam does point out that we traded him at a high point in value.
Would I have rather gotten a younger, cheaper, better option for RamRam? Sure, but the fact might have just been it wasn’t out there (keep in mind, other GM’s realize the unpredictability of MR pitchers also)
Then don't trade RamRam!
If there’s not a good trade out there, don’t make a trade!
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Nov 19, 2008 11:51 AM EST up reply actions
I Heard This
On ESPN radio . I just woke up and turned on the radio to hear the news; I’m getting better. I think I’ll live now.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Nov 19, 2008 1:04 PM EST up reply actions
I guess you have to...
assume that Teahen is all but gone, too, at this point. And that any deal involving him (if not the Cubs/Fontenot deal) is going to include a middle infielder making less money than Teahen.
Or, in my wildest of pipe dream deals, Guillen and his contract are unloaded for a younger, cheaper middle infielder.
by Sweep_the_Leg on Nov 19, 2008 11:43 AM EST up reply actions
If Moore Could
Dump Guillen and add Rivera (yes, I’m still on that bandwagon) this would be a good deal.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Nov 19, 2008 1:06 PM EST up reply actions
You're right
This trade sucks if all it does is push Teahen to the bench and Gathright off the roster. It only makes sense if you do something with Teahen or Guillen. I assume the Royals will.
I'm not in love with the money he's owed
but who honestly cares, its not OUR money. Apparently DM has the green light on upping payroll. I’d leave it at that, as long as in the future we don’t get limited by “budget constraints”.
btw, what is replacement level for a CF? And if Jacobs is used solely against RHP he will be extremely productive.
Alex Gordon in '08
But
It is money that cannot be used for a Greinke extension, signing other FAs, etc.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Nov 19, 2008 11:39 AM EST up reply actions
Spending money may make the Grinke signing possible.
Grinke wanted to know that Dayton wanted to build a winner in KC, maybe this will get him to sign an extention?
Go Royals!
I dont know what the hell you are saying!!!
Replacement players don’t hit 32 homeruns in 470 at bats!!!!
Replacement players are considered by some scouts as THE BEST CF IN BASEBALL - he played next to MANNY FOR GODSAKE
by GobbleforCyoung on Nov 19, 2008 2:23 PM EST up reply actions
They do
when they OBP .299 and are -20 runs on defense at first base in the NL.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 19, 2008 3:49 PM EST up reply actions
fail to see
how this makes the team better. Spending money in one place means less money spent in another and we are spending more for a similar players. We are not getting on base more and we are older.
RamRam and Nunez were really our best trade commodities with the heightened value of middle relievers these days. Just don’t see Teahan getting us much in return.
Significantly Improved defense and marginally improved offense
The outfield defense is clearly improved. Crisp probably pushes Teahen to the bench at this point, so offensively it’s a wash, except that you can now trade Teahen for a middle infielder. Which will certainly further help the defense, and depending on who you get, will probably help the offense as well since Callaspo is no great shakes.
I think it is terrible
I think this is the worst trade DM has ever made.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Nov 19, 2008 11:08 AM EST up reply actions
+1111111111!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!111111111111111!111
Marriage is a great institution, for those that like being in institutions.
Pfffffft
I dont even know what to think.. my first reaction is WHAT THE F*CK!.. now we have Coco, Teahen, Guillen, and Dejesus… you’d have to believe teahen or dejesus is on the block now…
So we get rid of our best relieve that isnt a closer and we get F’n Coco Pebbles in return.. i think we could have packaged Ramon with something else to a different team for a much better player than Coco..
Im really not happy at all about this if it does turn out to be 100% finalized..
But in the end i guess we have one of the best defensive centerfielders a preety good leadoff bat that CAN steal bases.. maybe ill like it more one day but as ive right now i feel sick to my stomach
ugh.
One thing that's become clear this offseason
No reliever (other than Soria) is guaranteed to be here multiple years. Sisco, Burgos, Nunez, Ramirez, HoRam, Howell*.
* Probably should’ve been in the pen anyway.
Although it is a good rumor right now
it still isn’t confirmed, is it?
by I need more Esteban on Nov 19, 2008 11:22 AM EST reply actions
Not confirmed
But 810 has pretty much said it is a done deal.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Nov 19, 2008 11:23 AM EST up reply actions
or there's a
3rd team involved and the deal isn’t done yet because we’re trying to hash out which AAA middle infielder and high-A relief pitching prospect we want for Greinke.
OK, just kidding… sort of.
Don't Stop Believing!
Well, pitching is the currency of baseball...
…and GMDM just spent some.
I do wonder if this scuttles the Teahen-Cubs trade. If Cedeno is the main target, probably not. If Pie is, probably yes.
I wonder if Moore already has plans for stocking the bullpen now that he got rid of our 3 best, after Soria. (counting the HoRam for Orlando trade here) Is he going to use the guys in the minors (Musser, Lowery, maybe Rosa, maybe Lumsden is OK in the pen, despite failing as a starter?) or does he expect to just pick up who he can when he can?
Chaim Mattis Keller New York City's # 1 Royals fan!
Time will tell
the thing that we know Moore can do is build a bullpen, though. Look at RamRam. We acquired him for JDLR when the Rockies had written him off. I really liked RamRam and am sad to see him go, but I do trust Moore to build the bullpen back up. Rosa and Cortes could be seeing time next season.
by I need more Esteban on Nov 19, 2008 11:42 AM EST up reply actions 2 recs
I expect Cortes is targeted for the rotation
No injury history, spending the winter reportedly learning a new pitch…
Rosa is probably expected to at least start out in the pen, given his injury issues.
Chaim Mattis Keller New York City's # 1 Royals fan!
I take back the part of my comment
that indicated some hope for Lumsden. The guy’s doing worse in winter ball than he did in AAA, is you can believe it. Hard to believe that at this point in time, it looks like the White Sox got the better of the MacDougal trade.
Chaim Mattis Keller New York City's # 1 Royals fan!
That's why I said
“at this point in time.” We all see what a washout Mac the 9th became in Chicago, and I’m sure we expected Lumsden to have done something for us by now. Cortes is still future.
Chaim Mattis Keller New York City's # 1 Royals fan!
Is it just me or did some of our biggest strengths juuuuust get dumped for two questionable position players?
To create a two headed monster with the combined name of Coco Jacobs??
At least Wally Joyner's not on the team....
The Ramirez for Crisp you are probably right on
but I wouldn’t call Leo Nunez one of our strengths. I think Jacobs is going to be very valuable for us this season. No way of knowing, but that’s what I think.
by I need more Esteban on Nov 19, 2008 11:43 AM EST up reply actions
Well, I guess it isn't confirmed. But here are my quick thoughts on on this trade, and how it might still improve the 2009 OF
OK, so I put it into a spreadsheet, and then tried to paste… but the formatting is beyond primitive, sorry it’s not clear. The projections aren’t mine. The offensive projections are from Tango’s Marcels, converted to runs above average. Defense is from CHONE’s projections, which are more problematic, but do combine 3 years of STATS and BIS info, regression to the Fans Scouting Report (which, believe it or not, holds up pretty well) depending on playing time, and adjusts for age. I think convert that total to wins above or below average, then add in positional adjustments and AL replacement level. All this assumes full-time playing, of course, and 700 ABs. Crisp and DDJ have recent injuries, so that does effect how one might see how much they play in the future. I didn’t include arms because the data isn’t out yet, but it would almost certainly hurt Crisp and DDJ. I gotta go, so this is quick…
Crisp Cf Corner
Offense -6.40 -6.40
Defense -3.00 5.00
Wins -0.90 -0.13
Position 0.25 -0.75
Replace 2.50 2.50
Total (cf) 1.85 (lf)1.62
DDJ Cf Corner
Offense 2.60 2.60
Defense3.00 9.00
Wins 0.53 1.10
Position 0.25 -0.75
Replace 2.50 2.50
Total (cf)3.28 (lf)2.85
Teahen Corner
Offense 0.90
Defense 4.00
Wins 0.47
Position -0.75
Replace 2.50
Total 2.22
As you can see, DDJ is projected to be the best player in either the corner or center. Teahen is better in the corner than Crisp either place. You can disagree with the projections, of course, I just want people to see where I’m coming from — the projections aren’t half-baked, at least. However, I do see a way that this trade could improve the OF… I think this speaks for itself.
JoGui Corner
Offense -4.90
Defense -11.00
Wins -1.51
Position 0.25
Replace 2.50
Total 1.24
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
I still don't trust defensive metrics
period
They are unstable, and fail to take many factors into the final result…
OK
then just through them out altogether… and Coco’s still worse than Teahen and DDJ
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 19, 2008 11:46 AM EST up reply actions
the totals are wins above replacement
later… gotta eat
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 19, 2008 11:47 AM EST up reply actions
you are probably right with your conclusion
I would take DDJ over coco in either field, but word of warning on marcels. Marcels doesn’t actually forecast, it just says that what happened in the past will repeat, in doing so weighting recent performance highest. Thus its next to useless for young players, or ones that have recently suffered statistically due to injuries. For DDJ and Coco, its probably workable for the time being. But if you make an assumption that coco will be healthy (which may or may not be a little radical depending on which side you are on), its gonna throw your numbers off.
Aside: just another reason why I have never been a fan of tango, but neither here nor there, i don’t want to get into another argument with him.
That's why I don't use it for young players -- all these guys have decent playing histories
It’s more reliable than James, and when I wrote it I didn’t have reliable projections for the other guys. Even when the ZiPS Oracles some out, there will be some baseline issues that won’t be resolved in my DB until I get the whole thing…
In any case, Crisp not beingr healthy onlyl helps my argument. I’m not (nor is Tango) endorsing Marcels. I will say that when fans intuitively think they can “out-intuit” Marcels, they are almost always wrong.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 19, 2008 3:52 PM EST up reply actions
Soren Petro
on 810whb.com just said he has heard from sourcd in Chicago that the Royals are holding out trading Teahen to the Cubs unless they throw Felix Pie in the deal…
I’d wager that those talks are off, or the R’s have shifted targets…
FONTENOT NOW
I guess
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 19, 2008 11:44 AM EST up reply actions
unless Pie is gonna be our 4th Outfielder
Coco, Dejesus, Guillen, Pie – 4th and get Fotenot in the deal
ugh.
I personally don't see it in Pie
I know he is still really, really raw, but he hasn’t shown my eye much at this point…
Greg Schaum at 610
Who posts at Royals Corner is hinting that Sean Marshall is being discussed.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Nov 19, 2008 11:52 AM EST up reply actions
Here's a thought
maybe Crisp was limited in Boston’s crappy lineup and will break out in our great line…..OK I drank too much last night.
by I need more Esteban on Nov 19, 2008 11:46 AM EST reply actions
you drank too much...
lucky.
Industrial engineering optimization test awaits!
At least Wally Joyner's not on the team....
From royals.com
Although the deal was not immediately announced by the clubs, Ramirez said from the Dominican Republic that he was informed of the deal by the Royals shortly after 9 a.m. CT.
ugh.
Come on people
We traded RamRam and we replace Gathright with Crisp. We also open up a bullpen slot for a Rule 5 player or another reclamation project. Overall quality of the players the Royals control goes up at little real cost.
This is a Good Thing.
by BlueEyes_Austin on Nov 19, 2008 11:51 AM EST reply actions
Setting the bar kinda low
Now doubt Jacobs is an improvement over Gload and Crisp is an improvement over Gathright. That isn’t the point. I want this team to win the division. Simply replacing god awful players with mediocre players with limited upside will improve your team, but only by so much. We should be looking for higher upside players than that.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Nov 19, 2008 11:54 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
People probably said the same thing
about Jason Bartlett, I think we are trying to build role players around our young guys. It’s just a matter of if the young guys work out or not.
by I need more Esteban on Nov 19, 2008 11:56 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I'd feel much better about this trade
If we had Scott Kazmir, James Shields, BJ Upton, Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena, and Evan Longoria
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Nov 19, 2008 11:57 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
very good point
but we do have: Gil Meche, Zack Greinke, Billy Butler, David Dejesus, Alex Gordon, and Kila Ka’ahuie…..not the same, but a couple break out and all of the sudden everything is much better….what can I say, I’m a glass half-full kind of guy.
by I need more Esteban on Nov 19, 2008 11:59 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
And Ramon Ramirez and J. P. Howell!
D’oh
The lineups are bad enough… can we not compare the FO that traded for Howell, picked up Iwamura for next to nothing, Matt Garza for a OF worse (if younger) that GUillen, signed Eric Hinske to a minor league deal to be their Ross GLoad, and so on, to the one still living off the glory of the Meche and Soria acquisitions hoping people won’t notice 3/36 replacement p layers, the less-harmful but even more idiotic Gload extension, the TPJ fiasco, etc…
Moore might be good yet. He’s good at pitching. But he’s nowhere near the league of the Tampa Boys yet. The Guillen, Gload, and Jacobs-in-arb acquisitions are evidence enough of that.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 19, 2008 3:55 PM EST up reply actions
Why can't we compare front offices Pessimistic Pete?
Did Tampa hit a homerun with every signing they’ve made? No, the reason those signings look good are because of the play of their young, high draft picks. All those other guys are just role players.
They also took one of those young high draft picks (Delmon Young) and traded him for pitching and defense that put them over the hump….The Carlos Pena signing was a great one (see Mike Jacobs) but the rest hinged on draft picks.
If those come around then you will be able to compare those FO’s.
by I need more Esteban on Nov 19, 2008 4:09 PM EST up reply actions
Exactly
The old regime was hamstrung by ownership’s cheap attitude towards the draft.
GMDM got organizational pitching depth with his first draft class and started making moves towards more position players the past two years.
Granted, we don’t know how the future will play out but the farm system looks like it can start cranking out frontline position players in 2-4 years and then the Roylas will be able to make moves like a true major league franchise.
It’s just tough to sell patience to a fanbase that may have to wait 20 years between periods of competitiveness.
. . . a weary nation turns to Gil Meche
Well, what do you propose DM do?
You can’t attract FAs without winning, even if you have the money, so you try to improve through trade. OK, so to get a player like you’re talking about, what would we have to give up? A good portion of the farm? Part of the team we’re trying to build upon to get better?
So then how else can we improve but get incrementally better? It seems abysmal at the time, I feel that too. I want Coco Crisp to have been (insert great outfielder here), but until the farm system is stocked and we can reasonably trade away pieces of that and the current roster, what else can be done?
by Bornin85 on Nov 19, 2008 12:04 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
+1
For everyone that is moaning and groaning about “not getting enough” for Leo Nunez and Ramon Ramirez, I would REALLY like to know what REALISTIC deal you would propose involving either or both of those guys.
Bottom line, they are both middle relievers (picked up for next to nothing). The Royals are NOT getting Beltran back for them. I happen to think that turning Jorge De La Rosa into Coco Crisp is a pretty good bit of GM’ing on Dayton’s part. Especially since the Royals clearly have a greater need for improved outfield defense than they need to hang on to another good GMDM middle reliever find.
by Sweep_the_Leg on Nov 19, 2008 12:11 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Why do we have to trade those guys?
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Nov 19, 2008 12:12 PM EST up reply actions
To get incrementally better
Bullpen arms are easy for DM to come by, apparently.
You're happy with 75 wins?
Because we won’t be signing any impact free agents of consequence this offseason
You're happy with 80 wins?
Go for guys with upside, not guys that make us incrementally better
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Nov 19, 2008 12:15 PM EST up reply actions
but HOW?
Guys with as much upside as you want aren’t always realistically availalbe. You think GMDM doesn’t wish he could get more? You think he’s perfectly, completely, fully, and regretlessly happy about Coco Crisp?
He will get what he can get.
I’m with Bornin85. You can’t realistically expect all the improvement to come at once…we don’t have the foundation to make that kind of high-/immediate impact trade yet.
There are guys with upside dealt all the time
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Nov 19, 2008 12:24 PM EST up reply actions
Sometimes
But we have other pieces to trade, not just Nunez or RamRam. I don’t see why we have to only trade those guys.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Nov 19, 2008 12:33 PM EST up reply actions
Right
I’m sure teams aren’t interested in any of our other players
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Nov 19, 2008 12:36 PM EST up reply actions
I'm not trading DDJ for a high upside prospect,
but that just might be me.
If the goal is just to get incrementally better
Then just replace Gload with Shealy. BAM Incrementally better.
Um
Gload got replaced…by Jacobs, again for a fungible middle reliever.
by BlueEyes_Austin on Nov 19, 2008 12:50 PM EST up reply actions
Because Dayton decided...
that DeJesus wasn’t as good a defensive CF as he wanted, and made acquiring one a priority. You can argue with that decision if you want, but he’s the GM. The only in-house option would have been Maier. If you think that handing Maier the starting CF job was a better option, OK, but I’d rather have Crisp out there.
by Sweep_the_Leg on Nov 19, 2008 12:17 PM EST up reply actions
This was a horrible trade?
I don’t think any serious analyst is looking at it that way. I’m not saying it is a particularly good trade for the Royals. But to say it is a horrible trade is pretty silly.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 19, 2008 2:13 PM EST up reply actions
One other thing about Crisp
A bigger ballpark like the K should increase his 2B/3B output as opposed to Fenway
Might as well, Lineup's anyone?
Is Crisp a switch-hitter?
I’m just kind of doing a dirty lineup, not really thinking about splits so I’m sure someone else can supplement this.
Crisp
Aviles
Dejesus
Guillen
Jacobs
Gordon
Butler
Olivo
Callaspo
Bench: Teahen, Shealy, Gload, TPJ (yuck)
I’m sure this would change depending on whose pitching.
by I need more Esteban on Nov 19, 2008 11:55 AM EST reply actions
I don't like Crisp leading off at all
CF DeJesus
SS Aviles
RF Guillen
DH Jacobs
1B Butler
3B Gordon
CF Crisp
C Olivo
2B Callaspo
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Nov 19, 2008 12:13 PM EST up reply actions
Dispite his OBP
I still prefer Crisp a lead-off b/c of his speed
CF – Crisp
SS – Aviles
LF – DDJ
RF – JoGui
DH – Jacobs/Butler
3B – Gordo
1B – Shealy
C – Olivo
2B – Callaspo
Bench – Butler/Jacobs, Buck, Gload, German
I don’t know what the F we’re going to do with Teahen… Can we trade him for RamRam?
by labbadabba on Nov 19, 2008 12:49 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
He's a win better than JoGui
I think the answer is obvious
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 19, 2008 3:58 PM EST up reply actions
Speed is much less important for a leadoff hitter than OBP
Much, much, much, much, much less important.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 19, 2008 3:59 PM EST up reply actions
Lineup
vs. RHP
CF – Crisp
LF – DeJesus
3B – Gordon
RF – Guillen
1B/DH – Jacobs
SS – Aviles
1B/DH – Butler
C – Olivo
2B – Callaspo
*If Butler performs well and Guillen falters, they can switch.
vs. LHP
CF – Crisp
SS – Aviles
LF – DeJesus
RF – Guillen
DH – Butler
3B – Gordon
1B – Shealy
C – Olivo
2B – Callaspo
Bench – Butler/Jacobs/Shealy, Buck, Teahen, German
Teahen can play for Guillen against RHP alot (and for Butler some, too).
Career numbers at the K anyone?
I seem to remember him raking with the Indians against us.
by I need more Esteban on Nov 19, 2008 12:00 PM EST reply actions
that be a different time
Crisp hasn’t been above-average offensively since he started playing for the Sox.
Look at it this way
We got rid of two Relief Pitchers (which are the most replaceable position on a baseball team)
For 2 Starting players
Good job
ugh.
the light hitting late inning defensive replacement is the most
replaceable position
do you remember what CoCo was before he was traded to the Red Sox?
Just as good as Grady Sizemore at the time…. Sizemore progressed…. crisp got hurt and didn’t.
Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.
I think we might be forgetting
that DDJ is an ok CF but kind of sucks as an corner outfielder when we compare him to MLB corner outfielders instead of, say, Mark Teahen or Coco Crisp.
I know that Jacobs hit 30 HRs (once), but I thought we were going to acquire some power. Now we’re adding another replacement level guy to the OF. I would have spent the Jacobs/Crisp money on an actual power-hitting corner OF.
This is a pointless $6 million move. The Red Sox can afford a $6 million replacement level guy; we can’t.
Just curious
which power-hitting corner OF?
by I need more Esteban on Nov 19, 2008 12:11 PM EST up reply actions
He is replacing Teahen and Gathright, so its almost a neutral move as far as money is concerned.
Which will allow us (at least in Daytons and Trey’s minds) to get our value from GLoad’s 2.9 million without just dumping him, so looking at it that way, we save over 2 million.
Go Royals!
Right...
Because there are a ton of corner OF’s who clearly have as much or more power than Jacobs, and a better OBA, that are available (either through FA or trade) that will only make $6-9 million per over the next couple years.
Give me a break. Can we PLEASE deal with reality here?
Err
Josh Willingham? Nick Swisher?
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Nov 19, 2008 12:15 PM EST up reply actions
You're seriously suggesting that the Royals...
trot Butler or Kila out there every night in one of the corners???
And I didn’t know that Ken Williams (as crazy as he is) was willing to move Swisher for RamRam and/or Nunez (and within the division, to boot). Or that Willingham was also available for one or both of them.
by Sweep_the_Leg on Nov 19, 2008 12:21 PM EST up reply actions
Then trade someone else
I don’t get why we have to deal RamRam or Nunez.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Nov 19, 2008 12:24 PM EST up reply actions
OK fine
but don’t just say someone else, who?
by I need more Esteban on Nov 19, 2008 12:25 PM EST up reply actions
Its impossible for me to know what exactly is out there
But Willingham was just dealt with Olsen for three nothing prospects. I suggested in the other thread that Teahen/Blake Wood/Chris Nicoll was equivalent to what the Yanks gave up in the Swisher deal (we don’t know if KW would have dealt within the division or not)
Felix Pie is available (not a huge fan, but at least he has upside and has much of Crisp’s skillset) Lyle Overbay is supposedly available (less upside, but good OBA numbers) The Indians have excess outfielders that are young. Jeremy Hermida might be available.
Now you may nitpick each of these players. That’s not the point though. The point is there are young players with upside that are available – probably far more than I’ve pointed out. DM just went with a mediocre vet with limited upside.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Nov 19, 2008 12:32 PM EST up reply actions
They're C prospects at best
We certainly could have matched it without having to give up any of our top prospects.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Nov 19, 2008 12:35 PM EST up reply actions
I guess we are getting into hypotheticals then
Because we have no diea if a GM would want Teahen/Wood/Nicoll…I lean towards that it would take more than that but who knows.
by I need more Esteban on Nov 19, 2008 12:39 PM EST up reply actions
I don't know either
But if we can’t do better than Crisp, I don’t think we should make a trade. Crisp is just not the kind of player we should be looking to acquire. Keeping Teahen in the OF is a better option.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Nov 19, 2008 12:44 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah
obvously we’ll see…I’m hoping for a turnaround season from Crisp and Teahen but obviously won’t get it from both. We might still be trading Teahen too.
by I need more Esteban on Nov 19, 2008 12:46 PM EST up reply actions
Who are you, Allard Baird?
We can’t afford a $15/mil guy who’s actually good, so we should drop $9 mil on two guys that are replacement level? I know that’s how Allard Baird tried to win, but it’s silly.
We have a limited amount of cash to spend, and so far we’ve spent almost all of it on two guys that don’t really make the team any better. Jacobs hit 31 HRs once so we just had to have him, and GMDM is obsessed with speed up the middle so we gave up a very good reliever who makes no money for a fast guy who adds nothing offensively and makes $6 mil. That’s dumb.
Plus, I’m a little botthered that we have holes all over our lineup, and GMDM has signed guys at positions where we already had guys to play. Dumb.
by hippdoghipp on Nov 19, 2008 12:25 PM EST up reply actions
Not true, if you work out the numbers, the Royals payroll would project to be less then last years.
Roayls are still ahead by 3-4 million, and are looking to trade Teahen for a leauge minimum infielder, so the payroll would be down 6-7 million, and we could still get a 15 million a year free agent player.
Go Royals!
Why do we want to get rid of Teahen?
We still need a fourth OF, and as discussed on this board in the past, Teahen is a good value.
If I were GM, I’d stop dicking around bringing in replacement level guys to replace the replacement level guys we already have, and actually bring in some good players that can help us win a division in a few years. We’re not going anywhere next year, which makes this trade so silly.
And I’d really stop TRADING guys to bring in replacement level guys. Coco Crisps are a dime a dozen, although I confess I am discounting his ability to be a “true” leadoff hitter.
but these replacement guys are better than our replacement guys...
so we’re building.. it takes time. You can’t just flip flop everything in one year.
Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.
by 306008 on Nov 19, 2008 1:13 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
At least we know we have another guy who will charge the mound and start a fight!
by I need more Esteban on Nov 19, 2008 12:24 PM EST reply actions
That's a VERY good point.
Between Olivo and Crisp, hopefully teams will stop effing with the Royals so much by throwing inside whenever they want.
by Sweep_the_Leg on Nov 19, 2008 12:44 PM EST up reply actions
And we have Guillen to take on the fans.
Go Royals!
This is the part that is dumb..
we have crisp for 1 year… 2009.. with an 8 MM dollar option for 2010… i really doubt the royals would pick that up.. they’ll probably choose the 500K buyout..
So we got rid of a guy who we had control of until 2012 for a guy we have for most likely a year
ugh.
by focs on Nov 19, 2008 12:29 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
Agree. That's the worst part.
We gave up our best or second best reliever for one year of marginally better defense, plus lose the opportunity to signfiicantly upgrade our LF offense.
by hippdoghipp on Nov 19, 2008 12:46 PM EST up reply actions
mmm, but what if Crisp is a type B free agent? Plus we have players like Rosa and Lowrey to step into the reliever spots.
We also still have quite a bit in the pen, and if we get another starter, Banny would be a great long reliever, something we were really thin on last year that made us make some roster moves when the pen got used up.
Go Royals!
Riiiight...
I was wondering the same thing. Here are the Royals’ options (definite and at least strongly rumored thus far), if you think DDJ was just not good enough defensively in CF. If you assume all options are somewhat close defensively (I’ll let someone else figure that out), then here are the offensive numbers(obviously Maier and Pie have VERY limited sample sizes):
Crisp
AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG *OPS+
162 Game Avg 605 90 169 33 5 12 65 26 10 48 89 .280 .331 .409 94
Gathright
AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG *OPS+
162 Game Avg 455 67 120 12 3 0 38 31 11 37 81 .263 .328 .304 68
Maier
AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG *OPS+
162 Game Avg 432 50 116 4 4 0 37 0 8 17 91 .269 .309 .298 64
Pie
AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG *OPS+
162 Game Avg 324 44 72 14 5 4 37 14 1 26 90 .223 .284 .331 57
by Sweep_the_Leg on Nov 19, 2008 12:50 PM EST up reply actions
Is Boston eating any of the contract?
by I need more Esteban on Nov 19, 2008 12:39 PM EST reply actions
That is a good question
My gut tells me probably not, otherwise, we may have had to give up more than RamRam to get Crisp.
I think they might be....
RamRam with the monster? what do you think?
Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.
What happens to Teahan?
Goes to the Cubs for pitching?
Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.
Damnit
we’re gonna win the Central and then we’ll all getting trashed in the right field standing room only fountain section in the playoffs.
No word on if Freddie Patek will weep with us if we lose to the Yankees.
On the conference call
DM said we dealt DLR for RamRam. I always thought those were two separate deals – RamRam for Valerio de los Santos; DLR for cash?
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
How bout this..
Mark Teahen and Julio Pimentel for Sean Marshall and Mike Fotenot.. and if not Marshall what about Rich Hill
ugh.
I wouldn't take a chance on Hill with his injuries
But I like Marshall and Fontenot. Not sure the Cubs do that deal, but its not totally out of the question.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Nov 19, 2008 12:53 PM EST up reply actions
I liked Ramirez so I’m unsure about the trade when viewed alone. However, I think any argument that Teabag is better than Crisp is silly. Teabag has peaked and worn out his welcome in my view. In Crisp we get a guy that is at least as good and more importantly brings the intangible of having played for a winner. We need to sweep out our perennial losing attitude and learn to win.
In Crisp we get a guy who just hasn't worn out his welcome yet.
I don’t think he’s terrible, and I’m not entirely opposed to the trade, but saying Teahen has worn out his welcome is sily. And boy could we use some more intagnibles in the clubhouse. Much better than the tangibles.
Don't Stop Believing!
Transaction Oracle is up
Not very high on the trade of course. ZIPS has him at .267/.327/.380
I’m not sure I buy his analysis on defense….what do you say devil_fingers?
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Well the I need more Esteban projections are up
and they are .279/.350/.450
Crisp hits 25 HR’s and gets banned for using a controlled substance….it’s all in the numbers.
by I need more Esteban on Nov 19, 2008 1:04 PM EST up reply actions
50 game suspension save the Royals 1/3 of that $8 million.
They might even turn him in. : )
Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.
Just catching up
I"m sure someone else has beter numbers… I’m at “school” and may not have time to give BS analysis later on this… All I have are CHONE’s defensive projections, listed up above.
I know people are sick of Teahen. I like home runs, too…. I hope this works. Crisp over Guillen is a good idea, Crisp over Teahen, not so much.
But at least Dayton will have more of his guys out there.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 19, 2008 4:02 PM EST up reply actions
Hey guys
How good is Ramon Ramirez? I don’t know much about him other than his fine numbers, so I thought about asking.
About Crisp… He’s a very frustrating player, both on the field and with the bat. In some games, he’ll smoke the ball and end up on base many times. On other games, he’ll only hit soft grounders to the pitcher and end up 0-5. He’s good at taking pitches. On the field, he has nice speed to get to the ball, but sometimes he’ll take downright silly routes to the ball. That’s just him. Good tools, good player all around, but he’s a dumbass in some plays. He seems to lack concentration, I think. He’s a solid player, and I hope he can live up to his potential in KC. His batting stance is the ugliest ever, so good luck on that.
Mother---- him and John Wayne!
RamRam
Is a solid reliever with a great change who avoids the longball but has command issues at times. There is a certain fluctuation in reliever performance, but generally I think he’ll do quite well in Boston.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Power changeup?
Sounds fun. :)
Mother---- him and John Wayne!
by MerryGoByeBye on Nov 19, 2008 1:28 PM EST up reply actions
He's a definite fan favorite around here
Very good season and was counted on to set-up Soria and even go a couple innings sometimes. I’d be very happy if I were a Red Sox fan, especially since you had an extra outfielder. He does have an injury history, and he’s only done this for one season so those are the only question marks in my eyes.
by I need more Esteban on Nov 19, 2008 1:09 PM EST up reply actions
I'm surprised by this
“he’ll take downright silly routes to the ball”
I can’t say that I’ve heard anyone in the Boston area say anything negative about the way Crisp plays the field… other than his comments about his lack of an arm. He should have won a Gold Glove in ’07 if not for the automatic votes for Torii…
by Rhody Royals on Nov 19, 2008 1:15 PM EST up reply actions
I remember at least 6 times this last season when a ball hit in the air towards Coco turned into a double
Not like he just missed, or it was out of his range. He just took a bad route. He had some injuries this last season, so it might have been this. I don’t remember this happening in 2007 now that you said it, so I think it was the injury.
Mother---- him and John Wayne!
by MerryGoByeBye on Nov 19, 2008 1:27 PM EST up reply actions
I sometimes get the impression
Coco wants to get on sportscenters top 10 a little more than the next guy
ugh.
A-la
Jim Edmunds? Now he could make the easiest catch look like a highlight reel catch.
by Rhody Royals on Nov 19, 2008 1:42 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah
He’ll also swing for homers when you need singles from time to time.
Mother---- him and John Wayne!
by MerryGoByeBye on Nov 19, 2008 2:36 PM EST up reply actions
Go to stat corner
check out AL reliever pRAA. Ramirez was the third highest in the AL, behind only RIvera and Papelbon. Yeah, he’s pretty good.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 19, 2008 4:03 PM EST up reply actions
And then there are the projections...
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 19, 2008 4:04 PM EST up reply actions
DM on 810
-Sees Crisp batting at the top of the lineup
-Best available player for the Royals to acquire
-Has work to do now in assembling a bullpen
-Pimentel and Rosa could be bullpen candidates if we don’t find anyone else
-Sees Crisp as a two year player in KC
-We still have payroll flexibility, can raise payroll 20-30% over last year
-We won’t pursue Manny Ramirez or Mark Teixeira
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
What is Soren saying about the move?
by I need more Esteban on Nov 19, 2008 1:15 PM EST up reply actions
He likes it
Says its not a great move, but it makes the Royals better.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
talking about using the farm system to plug players in right now...
Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.
i think he traded RamRam
because he is tired of reading RR everyday seeing the make RamRam closer talk!
Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.
D_F on DM
More work do to:
Read Branch Rickey’s Life magazine article.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 19, 2008 4:05 PM EST up reply actions
More DM
-Could go up to $70-80 million, depends on what makes sense for us; if we can’t find players that fit, we’ll invest it in the draft
-Sees Crisp at the top of the lineup, but its up to Trey; DJ could hit 3rd. Alex could hit 3rd; we have flexibility though.
-Crisp has “value throughout the industry”. Guess this means well flip him next summer?
-Teahen is appealing to other teams because he’s cheap and can play lots of positions; at least a dozen of our players are constantly being inquired about
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
What the HELL.
MLBTR says royals also could pursue Ibanez… So.. Guillen, Dejesus, Crisp, Ibanez, Teahen… Someones gotta go.. probably teahen but then still.. we have 4 starting outfielders.. someone else still has to go..
could this be a sign that DDJ is leaving?
ugh.
Its a sign
That Tim Dierkes throws out a lot of rumors there. Most actual trades seem to be done without any rumors (see Jacobs, Mike; Crisp, Coco)
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
not to mention that Ibanez
is most likely considered a DH at this point…He cant play left like he used to, and for what he is asking the Royals should pass
that was a wild pitch anyway... I recognize it.
Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.
I'll be cool with the trade
if DMGM also picks up Jonny Gomes
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 19, 2008 4:06 PM EST up reply actions
More DM
-Mark “fits in well” with what we’re doing here
-Wants Zack here for as long as possible; takes both parties to do that; will continue to go down that path
-Soren asked if negotiations have begun, DM says he won’t discuss that publicly (reading between the lines it sounds like Zack is not yet convinced the Royals are going to be winners and is reluctant to sign)
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Ask yourself this question....
Would you trade Teahen and $3M for, say:
Brad Ziegler, Justin Speier, Jose Veras, Kyle Farnsworth, Trever Miller
by BlueEyes_Austin on Nov 19, 2008 1:26 PM EST reply actions
Exactly
And they are all ranked the same in the (admittedly flawed) Elias system as Ramirez.
by BlueEyes_Austin on Nov 19, 2008 1:29 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
what does that make Guillen and Crisp?
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 19, 2008 4:06 PM EST up reply actions
Guys who can only play in the OF
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 19, 2008 4:07 PM EST up reply actions
Coco Crisp got hit by the Mariner Moose...
… while the Moose was driving an ATV around the track between innings. Crisp was running up out of the dugout and forgot to look both ways.
Waiting for a 90+ win season
by RoyalsFanInMarinerTown on Nov 19, 2008 1:41 PM EST reply actions
Is "flexibility" another way of saying
“We, the crew of the Titanic, have a lot of flexibility regarding how our deck chairs can be arranged”?
Chaim Mattis Keller New York City's # 1 Royals fan!
by cmkeller on Nov 19, 2008 1:51 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
Fangraphs has a good take on this
It can be found here. Some excerpts:
Center fielders also hit worse than league average as a group, so we have to add a positional adjustment of 2.5 runs.
-10 offense, 5 defense, +2.5 position adjustment, +20 replacement level = +17.5 runs, or about 1.75 wins. We probably need to dock Crisp a few runs because of his weak arm (/- just covers range), so let’s call it +1.5 wins instead. That’s Crisp’s 2009 value, making him a slightly below average player, but still a decently valuable member of a roster.
The Royals clearly got the better player here, turning a decent but not great reliever into an almost league average center fielder. The fact that Crisp is owed $5.75 million for 2009 while Ramirez won’t make much makes this trade less of an outright steal for Kansas City, but Crisp is still more of a value than Ramirez is.
I stand unimpressed. It is a lot like the Jacobs trade in that it is fair in a player-for-player sense, but the player we got isn’t a great choice as a regular everyday player, particularly for the money he’s going to make.
And now Dayton is going to have to work his bullpen magic again. It’s gotten thin pretty quickly.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 19, 2008 1:57 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
You take what you can
I guess. I can live with Jacobs but bringing in a purported leadoff man who can’t get on base makes me think that the 2008 offense will be innings where the Royals get a run by stringing singles together punctuated by the occasional Mike Jacobs solo home run.
The near-term plan doesn’t really hinge on adds that GMDM can make now as much as it does on Gordon and Butler living up to their potential.
Players like Crisp and Jacobs are going to make it more obvious if Gordon and Butler fail, though.
. . . a weary nation turns to Gil Meche
I don't get the problem
So it is a bad thing to improve the overall quality of the team????
by BlueEyes_Austin on Nov 19, 2008 2:04 PM EST up reply actions
It's not bad to improve the team
But here’s the thing. For $1M, the Royals could have gotten a player like Jacobs on the FA market. For no more than $6M, the Royals could have gotten a player like Crisp on the FA market. Instead, the Royals traded away two good relievers to pay more than market value for those players.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 19, 2008 2:07 PM EST up reply actions
Wait a minute...
according to ESPN, here are the available CF’s.
Updated: November 19, 2008
Player Age Status Old Team New Team Years Dollars Rank
Rocco Baldelli 27 Free Agent Tampa Bay - 83 NR
Willie Bloomquist 30 Free Agent Seattle -
Jim Edmonds 38 Free Agent Chicago Cubs - 32 35
Gabe Kapler 33 Free Agent Milwaukee -
Mark Kotsay 32 Free Agent Boston - 63 NR
Corey Patterson 29 Free Agent Cincinnati -
Scott Podsednik 32 Free Agent Colorado — NR
Who should the Royals have signed for $6 million or less that will clearly be as good as Crisp?
Here are the 1B’s available:
Updated: November 19, 2008
Player Age Status Old Team New Team Years Dollars Rank
Rich Aurilia 37 Free Agent San Francisco - NR NR
Aaron Boone 35 Free Agent Washington -
Miguel Cairo 34 Free Agent Seattle - NR 77
Sean Casey 34 Free Agent Boston -
Tony Clark 36 Free Agent Arizona - NR 28
Jason Giambi 37 Free Agent NY Yankees -
Kevin Millar 37 Free Agent Baltimore - NR NR
Mark Sweeney 39 Free Agent LA Dodgers -
Mark Teixeira 28 Free Agent (A) LA Angels — 1
Who should the Royals have signed for $1 million or less that will clearly be as good as Jacobs?
by Sweep_the_Leg on Nov 19, 2008 2:17 PM EST up reply actions 4 recs
+1
i think people here sometimes don’t deal in reality… but in some playstation game where you can get what you want at all times. I like those games very much but they don’t really teach you how to be a real GM
by CollininCalifornia on Nov 19, 2008 2:19 PM EST up reply actions
Who should the Royals have signed for $6 million or less that will clearly be as good as Crisp?
Unfortunately, the are 4th OFers who aren’t on that list who are Crisp-like and cheap.
Who should the Royals have signed for $1 million or less that will clearly be as good as Jacobs?
Many names have been thrown around in recent weeks. Russ Branyan springs to mind. There are others.
And then there are the guys who are genuinely good who could have been had cheaply in trade, like Willingham and Swisher.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 19, 2008 2:20 PM EST up reply actions
No way
Crisp is, worst case, a near league average CF.
You’re gonna sign one of them for a one-year, $6M deal with a $8M club option?
I think not.
by BlueEyes_Austin on Nov 19, 2008 2:25 PM EST up reply actions
Worst case?
Crisp is, worst case, a near league average CF.
Best case, Crisp is a league average CFer. Worst case, he’s an ok 4th OFer. What is most likely is that he’s a below average CFer. The bat is light (low OBP, low power) and the defense is just pretty good. You’re telling me it’s hard to find a player like that for $6M? Not at all.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 19, 2008 2:29 PM EST up reply actions
I miiiiight be willing to grant you Russ Branyan...
he and Jacobs have somewhat comparable numbers, and both bat LH. But, he’s (almost) 33 years old, whereas Jacobs just turned 28. From a flip perspective (which I believe Jacobs will certainly be a candidate at the deadline this summer), he clearly has higher value.
But saying that some random, mystery 4th OF (assuming one was available on the FA market) would be just as good as Crisp is a definite stretch. And if you COULD say that with any certainty, he would definitely cost a LOT more than $6 million per.
by Sweep_the_Leg on Nov 19, 2008 2:30 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I can think of a least one
His name is David DeJesus.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
btw: DJ needs to fire his agent if he hasn't already
because he signed a ridiculously team-friendly contract. Teahen is going to get nearly as much in arbitration this year.
Don't Stop Believing!
Players are happy to sign guaranteed, long-term contracts very early in their careers
Sometimes they work out for the player: Berroa. Sometimes they don’t: DDJ. You never know.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 19, 2008 2:36 PM EST up reply actions
thanks for the update in economics.
Don't Stop Believing!
Whatever
I’m just saying that DDJ and his agent weren’t stupid. Nor were Longoria or Soria and their agents. (I could list a dozen other good young players early in their careers who signed long-term contracts in the last 3 years)
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 19, 2008 2:44 PM EST up reply actions
Ryan Langerhans would be close to free
Projects better defensively that Crisp. NO need to give up talent.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 19, 2008 4:08 PM EST up reply actions
I agree to a point....
I’m not sure you could have found comparable players for cheaper on the FA market, but I do believe the money is the only downside of the deal. If this isn’t going to limit us in future deals, I have no problem with it, but if this trade limits our signings/contract extensions with other players, it can be a problem.
The bullpen will be fine. There’s a reason we were able to get Ramirez for nothing. RPs are incredibly inconsistent from year to year. I’m all for dealing middle relievers for bats.
This year is all about Butler and Gordon, if they step up, this is a .500+ team.
Maybe GMDM is clearing the way for something next year
Assuming we buy out Crisp’s option instead of picking up the ridiculous tab, is there a CF free agent next year that will be worth getting?
Notas such
But it looks like a strength [bullpen depth] is rapidly becoming a weakness and no one here is sure that the players that are coming in [Jacobs and Crisp] offset that given that their offensive skillsets look pretty similar to players we already have, especially in the [in]ability to get on base.
. . . a weary nation turns to Gil Meche
I'm not too worried about the bullpen
Moore does a very good job of putting together a bullpen. He’s not the kind of guy who can find cheap, undervalued position players. But he can definitely find cheap, undervalued pitchers. Moore can re-load the bullpen.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 19, 2008 2:11 PM EST up reply actions
Absolutely
I have been consistently impressed with his ability to use journeyman-type relievers as assets to flip.
The process introduces an element of risk into what looked to be a pretty settled situation, that’s all.
. . . a weary nation turns to Gil Meche
i dont understand
Whats with all this talk about Moore has the ability to always assemble a good bullpen. I would say that he did that last year, but the year before wasnt the same at all. To say that he can always assemble a good bullpen, I would say is a stretch.
The 2007 and 2008 bullpens were both excellent
So far, he’s 2-for-2 which includes a lot of good acquisitions who panned out well.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 19, 2008 2:24 PM EST up reply actions
I think he acquired enough guys to find the few that we could use.
I mean he did sign a ton of trash too. It’s a good route to go as long as all of the trash doesn’t smell bad.
Don't Stop Believing!
That is how you build a good bullpen
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 19, 2008 2:38 PM EST up reply actions
didn't i just say that?
Don't Stop Believing!
I suppose
Although some may not see it that way.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 19, 2008 2:43 PM EST up reply actions
2007 bullpen was alot different
It was no scrap heap assembled plan. Dotel signed a deal. He was coming off an injury, so we could sign him cheap. Grienke was also in there for the first part of the season. Riske was not a scrap option. Peralta came up in 2005 under the Bair era.
I just think its too soon to lable Moore a bullpen artist extraordinaire.
I didn't say he can put a good bullpen together only by picking up scrap heap guys
What I said was that he’s good at putting together a good bullpen, through relatively inexpensive and wise FA signings, minor trades, waiver claims and minor league FA signings (the last two being scrap heap pick ups). And there’s also good SP’s who need some bullpen time before they go into the rotation (Greinke in 2007, perhaps Rosa in 2009).
I just think its too soon to lable Moore a bullpen artist extraordinaire.
If it is not too soon to lable Moore as bad at putting together a lineup, then it is not too soon to say that Moore is a bullpen artiste extraordinaire. So far, the data supports the contention that Moore is really good at putting together a bullpen.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 19, 2008 2:42 PM EST up reply actions
I would say he has proved it
You fail to mention in 2007 he brought in one of the best Rule 5 picks ever in Soria to the bullpen. And I don’t see why any excuses are being made, Greinke was in the bullpen because of his psychological problems but he was still there and it was a good bullpen. This year he takes what he’s lost and sticksin Nunez, Ramirez, and Mahay, not to mention, turning over Dotel for a starter in Davies, and Riske into a Sandwich pick in the draft.
BTW, anyone missing David Riske right now?
by I need more Esteban on Nov 19, 2008 3:02 PM EST up reply actions
This is the first time it's been used the other way
Usually, people go on and on (rightly) saying Moore is good with pitching, then say “we don’t know enough” about position players. I assume those people have come around. My original point elsewhere stands: if we’re far enough along to (rightly) say that Moore has done a great job with the pitching, we’re far enough along to say he had been crap at evaluating position players. He has yet to find a guy who has been league average over a full season — a single one. No one has come close. Actually, of all people TPJ probably came the closest in 2007.. um, that’s pretty bad.
But anyway, yeah, he has been great with the pen, although I think this year (RamRam, Tejada, etc) was way more impressive than last year (Soria is awesome, but putting Greinke in the pen is sort of cheating)… last year was still good though.
Hope he can pull it off again, because Ramirez is awesome.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 19, 2008 4:12 PM EST up reply actions
I still don't buy that
because he’s trying to find pieces in the scrap yard until the farm system pays off- he’s not in a position to get top flight talent to commit to KC long enough for that to happen.
GMDM values speed more than most of us do and that may be an instance of arbitrage [speed is cheaper than power] or it may be a reflection of new realities in baseball post-steroids [no more 50-60 HR guys] that make “smallball” more viable and he’s trying to find a way to build a team that can compete in that environment.
In any event, the GMDM we see now is not the one we’ll be looking at in 5 years. If he’s making the same kinds of moves at that point he should be shot dead in front of the George Brett statue.
. . . a weary nation turns to Gil Meche
No slack
Baird never had a chance because ownership didn’t let him do his job, but he never complained. GMDM has been given virtually everything he asked for and in the opinions I see here has underachieved.
I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt until it’s reasonable to say that the sins of the past have been expunged. After that, it’s all on Moore.
However, I expect Moore to succeed.
. . . a weary nation turns to Gil Meche
Oh yeah, I agree
I was referring to the vivid imagery of a bleeding man in front of the George Brett statue.
I find your lack of faith disturbing.
. . . a weary nation turns to Gil Meche
The Royals
Could have let me play shortstop instead of Pena and that would be an improvement. Does that make it the right move?
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
YES
A thousand times, yes!
[darn it, how do you do the sarcasm font?]
. . . a weary nation turns to Gil Meche
Or
was this an illustration of false premises leading to false conclusions?
. . . a weary nation turns to Gil Meche
Nope
they took away the one thing in life left worth living foir
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 19, 2008 4:12 PM EST up reply actions
All accounted for in my Marcels-based analysis above
not accounted for — Crisp’s age, injury history.
Justin Inaz has Ramirez at 18 RAR this past season, Crisp as 2.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 19, 2008 4:08 PM EST up reply actions
And it seems like their projected values (going by the projections we have) have Crisp more valuable (adding more wins) than Ramirez.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 19, 2008 4:09 PM EST up reply actions
we'll see
Doing RAR for relievers is more complicated than I thought (as is analyzing their value).
Of course, we also have to look at who Crisp will be replacing and who Ramirez will be replaced by respectively. If Crisp replaces Teahen, then that is a negative.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 19, 2008 4:14 PM EST up reply actions
Not sure how this even compares to the Jacobs deal
There is a general lack of viable FA CF out there (one thing the Yanks for sure have been looking for) and we get a pretty good one in exchange for a middle reliever, which are fungible.
This allows DDJ to move to LF thereby improving defense AND allows Teahen to be a bench guy, which I believe he’s more well suited for. Teahen as a 4 corners backup is a pretty good option.
My hope is that we get rid of Gload and TPJ and keep Teahen. See if Callaspo is an everyday 2B.
I like the move. To turn it around, people on this site are demanding Pie+prospect for Teahen, who is a .332 OBP and 98 OPS+ guy, but are mad that we get a CF (which we need) with a .331 OPS and 94 OPS+ for arguably the most fungible of player types.
I hereby resign from this post.
by Home Run Tony Cogan on Nov 19, 2008 2:26 PM EST reply actions
Lack of FA centerfielders
But I don’t get why DM is so hell bent on moving DJ to LF. And there are plenty of FA LFs, and probably many more decent LF available in trades.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Or if he is hellbent on moving DDJ to LF
Pony up a little more and get Gutierrez, who would be cheaper, under team control for more years, and a better defender than Crisp
A better defender than Crisp??
Not likely! Crisp should have won a Gold Glove in ‘07 and having watched quite a few Sox games is one of the better defensive centerfielders in baseball. He has no arm but his glove is tough to match. I don’t think Gutierrez has played enough to even compare him to Crisp, let alone say that he is a better defender.
by Rhody Royals on Nov 19, 2008 4:05 PM EST up reply actions
Gutierrez
Is most likely the best defensive outfielder in the AL. Crisp is very good , but not in Gutierrez’s class.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Um...
This year Gutierrez was anywhere from 19 to 30 runs above average. CHONE projects Crisp as -3 in Center, Guterriez as +19. That’s two wins by itself. Guterriez also makes the minimum (I think) and is 3-4 years younger.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 19, 2008 4:15 PM EST up reply actions
BECAUSE THE ROYALS DIDNT NEED A CENTER FIELDER
People keep saying “hey there aren’t a lot of CFers out there.” Right, so you don’t waste your talent and money on an overvalued scarcity. You leave DDJ in CF and go out and get an undervalued corner OFer. And there are a lot of them out there for $5-7M on the FA market, so you don’t have to give up your second best reliever.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 19, 2008 2:30 PM EST up reply actions
who would those undervalued corner OFs be?
Juan Rivera? How awful would our OF defense be with Guillen, DeJesus, Rivera?
Rocco Baldelli? Can’t play every day
Russ Branyan? Not a full-time player
Who would you bring in instead?
I hereby resign from this post.
by Home Run Tony Cogan on Nov 19, 2008 2:39 PM EST up reply actions
Yea NYRoyal
You should know exactly who is being shopped around in trades!!!!!!
Its silly to ask who NYRoyal would acquire – he doesn’t know who is available, and who isn’t. I think most of us would have liked DM to acquire a younger guy with upside who can show some OBA skills. Are there such guys available? I don’t know, but I bet there are at least a few.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
That's partly the point
altho I was talking more about signing FA instead of trades. There’s no real way to know what could have been done or not been done.
What I was saying was, whom from the currently available FA corner OFs would/should we have signed that would improve our team and fit in our budget? They all have some issues of one sort or another. Signing Juan Rivera might (he’s got some pretty horrendous years in there) improve our OBP, but at the cost of some potentially disastrous defense.
I just don’t see who the “magic bullets” are out there, at least in FA. They all come with significant question marks.
I hereby resign from this post.
by Home Run Tony Cogan on Nov 19, 2008 2:48 PM EST up reply actions
hey all come with significant question marks.
Including the guys we traded talent for. So if you can acquire a guy who is likely to add 1.5 to 2.5 wins to the team (when you take offense and defense into account), should you do it by trading talent for a guy and paying him X or through free agency and paying him less than X?
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 19, 2008 2:50 PM EST up reply actions
I'm not following your point
are you comparing trade vs. free agency or comparing the two players involved in the trade?
I hereby resign from this post.
by Home Run Tony Cogan on Nov 19, 2008 2:52 PM EST up reply actions
I’m comparing the trades the Royals made to FA signings they could have made with a similar improvement for probably less money and giving up no talent in trade.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 19, 2008 2:55 PM EST up reply actions
come on now.
NY knows everything ! :)
Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.
Lots of possibilities
I’ve read many of them on this site. If I went looking form them, I could find may more. Branyan, Hinske, Willingham. There’s more. And yes, they all have their pluses and minuses, like Crisp has. But when you add up the pluses and minuses, a number of other players and means of acquisition make more sense than this trade, or the Jacobs trade for that matter.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 19, 2008 2:46 PM EST up reply actions
Agree on the Jacobs deal...
I think we may have been able to do better. I like Hinske and Willingham. I don’t know about their defense, I mean I really have no idea how good/bad they are. I’m still a novice at finding defensive ratings. My sense is that neither are great defenders but could be wrong. Hinske at least could still be had in FA, but I don’t think there’s a fit anymore.
I hereby resign from this post.
by Home Run Tony Cogan on Nov 19, 2008 2:51 PM EST up reply actions
I'm starting to be reminded of Allard Baird
GMDM decided very early that he didn’t like DDJ in CF, which was not a horrible idea, but not a brilliant one either. Its an OK observation I guess. Since then however, he’s made two trades trying to solve something thats really a non-problem.
And I think
He is in win-now mode, playing for 2009 when we are probably a step away and should be looking more long-term.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
But he's not mortgaging the team's future to "win now"
Nor is he spending a lot of short-term money to win-now. So if he’s trying to win now, it doesn’t appear that he’s doing it to the detriment of the team’s future.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 19, 2008 2:32 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
No, and I suppose that's the saving grace
Just seems to be spinning the wheels.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
True
They appear to be small improvements that could have been bigger improvements if he’d done something else.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 19, 2008 2:35 PM EST up reply actions
I would buy that
in the case of Jacobs, but in the case of Crisp, I don’t know how much more you’re going to get for a reliever.
I hereby resign from this post.
by Home Run Tony Cogan on Nov 19, 2008 2:42 PM EST up reply actions
Then don't trade the reliever, trade someone else instead.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Or
Or trade for a corner OFer. Or sign a cheap corner OFer. Or make a bigger trade for a worthwhile player (like Willingham or Swisher).
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 19, 2008 2:47 PM EST up reply actions
Or, perhaps
steadily increasing the team’s win total to build fan interest until the draft picks can make the intended big splash?
Heck, in two years, we’ve improved by 15 games. If we keep this up, we could be at least in wild card contention as later as August next year. Good buzz will help keep the locals interested, and improve our chances of signing long term deals with our own players and free agents as well.
Chaim Mattis Keller New York City's # 1 Royals fan!
by cmkeller on Nov 19, 2008 2:40 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
well
the team actually outperformed it’s Pythag this year, after underperforming it last year.
I guess you could say they did it this year due to their bullpen, but then last year’s bullpen was something special, too. Maybe DMGM should just keep making the bullpen better with his magical abilities rather than trading acquiring overpriced and below average players liek Jacobs, Guillen, and Crisp (who, sadly, is probably the best of the three, but will probably push out a likely superior player in Mark Teahen).
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 19, 2008 4:18 PM EST up reply actions
The biggest reason why we outperformed Pythag.
We got blown out more often then we blew poeple out. The offense was pretty consistant in scoring enough runs to win games if we pitched well, with our horrible defense when we lost, we tended to lose big.
Go Royals!
but at what point
do you stop telling yourself that you are rebuilding and you are going to actually contend
The problem is that even if you decide that now is the time to contend
Acquring guys like Jacobs and Crisp don’t help you contend. They add what, maybe 1 or 2 net wins to this team?
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 19, 2008 2:56 PM EST up reply actions
Jacobs doesn't help much unless we can give him platoon help at DH, which we can, so maybe two wins?
Crisp is worth a possible 5 wins on defense if both Crisp and DDJ can stay healthy so that we play Teahen a lot for Guillen. Assuming we keep Teahen. If that all happens and Davies and Hooch improve, it should be enough to win the divsion or at least be really close.
Go Royals!
5 wins????? Are you nucking futs?
Crisp is worth a possible 5 wins on defense if both Crisp and DDJ can stay healthy so that we play Teahen a lot for Guillen
5 more net wins (comparing his hitting and defense to the hitting and defense that he would be replacing)? No way. Not even close. Your math is way, way, way off.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 19, 2008 4:33 PM EST up reply actions
When win totals stop improving
because that’s what they have done under Moore. Damn there is a lot of negativity towards a guy who has improved this team’s win total each year. If there is a regression next season and all these moves are flops then I will jump on board but I just don’t see why there is all the over-reaction when we have improved (although we were abysmal) and our young guys haven’t even broken out yet.
by I need more Esteban on Nov 19, 2008 3:09 PM EST up reply actions
The player most responsible for the improvement are as much Bairds as his
Meche, Soria, and Ramirez are all Moore’s. Great players and good pickups.
Greinke (best player on the team), DDJ (best position player), Aviles, Gordon (best young player), Nunez, were all a big part of things, They were inherited.
Biggets guys holding the team back the last two years? Guillen, Gload, and TPJ. No question. All acquired by DMGM.
I’ll compliment the guy, but Guillen and Gload were absolutely stupidfuck moves that weren’t even defensible at the time and are even more problematic now.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 19, 2008 4:38 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I think the Guillen signing was defensible at the time.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 19, 2008 4:40 PM EST up reply actions
Agree to disagree about the past
Dayton signed him to a 3.5 WAR player contract. Guillen hadn’t been that since 2005. But I imagine we disagree about when and were to overpay.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 19, 2008 4:41 PM EST up reply actions
Well we can all agree that the pitching depth rests
a lot on Moore’s shoulders and that, IMO, is what has made us improve every year.
You make good points and they are definitely something to consider, It’s still his team, though, and ultimately, what happens is up to him and his staff.
by I need more Esteban on Nov 19, 2008 4:46 PM EST up reply actions
Moore isn't going to get credit for much of anything until the team has some winning seasons
Until then he’s a loser who doesn’t know how to build a winner and the good guys are basically just the guys who were there when he arrived.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 19, 2008 4:47 PM EST up reply actions
Does Moore get six years with us to prove himself?
. . . a weary nation turns to Gil Meche
No, fire him now
But seriously folks, I’ll start seriously thinking about giving up on him when the team stops improving every year.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 19, 2008 4:50 PM EST up reply actions
getting to 75 wins is easy
and getting to .500 shouldn’t be difficult either
its getting to 90 that may or may not ever happen
Definitely
And can Dayton Moore get this team over that big hump? I have no idea. I’m cautiously optimistic, but he may not have the chops.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 19, 2008 4:57 PM EST up reply actions
Agreed
He’s getting better defense in a corner OF spot at the cost of power- it’s not making a whole of sense to me.
But I think that this thing is being built in a stair-like fashion: out of the cellar by 09-10 then the 07-08 draft classes start coming up in the 2011-2012 range.
They’ve invested a lot of money in the draft [both scouting and evaluation] so the moves being made at the big league level seem puzzling but when the focus is on the longer term they seem to make sense.
If you’re GMDM then it looks like this: get a little power, get a little speed as cheaply as possible and hope that the two guys your predecessor left you [Gordon and Butler] live up to the hype. Survive until your guys [e.g. Moustakis, Hosmer] make it up and see if that’s enough to make the leap into plausible contention.
. . . a weary nation turns to Gil Meche
We're already out if the cellar
Barely, I’ll grant you, but after they teased and flirted the last two years, it’s good to see that genuinely happen.
Chaim Mattis Keller New York City's # 1 Royals fan!
True but
but would you expect the Royals to be picked for last in 2009?
That’s what I’m talking about. All 08 did was make it where the Royals were no longer an abject laughing stock. They’ll still be pegged for last in the division.
. . . a weary nation turns to Gil Meche
I would just like to say that there is considerable room between a good and a bad trade
I think this one falls in that area. It seems like most posters are dead set in arguing that this trade is towards one or the other extreme.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 19, 2008 2:35 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
To me, the one factor that...
both drove this trade and is driving our debate over it, is the decision/judgment by Dayton that DDJ was not an adequate CF for defensive purposes. If you don’t like this trade, then the argument is that Dayton made the wrong judgment, should have kept DDJ in CF, and gone after a proven corner OF in trade (for who and in exchange for who, God only knows…Holliday? Yeah, right) or on the FA market. Which, in this market, means Dunn or Burrell.
I have to say that I’d rather have Crisp and Jacobs for the fungible commodities of Ramirez and Nunez, and with their shorter, more flexible contract situations, than having $13-17 million locked up for the next 3-4 years in either Dunn or Burrell. We’ve already seen what a not-so-great FA corner OF contract can to for the Royals and their future options. I’d HATE to have TWO of them.
Not to mention, I can’t fathom the thought of an OF defense comprised of Dunn/Burrell, DDJ, and Guillen. Good God.
by Sweep_the_Leg on Nov 19, 2008 2:46 PM EST up reply actions
then the argument is that Dayton made the wrong judgment, should have kept DDJ in CF, and gone after a proven corner OF in trade (for who and in exchange for who, God only knows…Holliday? Yeah, right) or on the FA market. Which, in this market, means Dunn or Burrell.
If you keep DDJ in CF you then don’t have to go out and get an elite, very expensive, FA corner OFer. You could still do a small move like the Crisp trade, but for a corner OF position (like a trade for Willingham, or a FA signing like Hinske or Branyan, to name but two).
And I’d like the Crisp trade more if he were a great defensive CFer. He isn’t. I hope he’s above average. I’m not sure he is. He certainly isn’t better than that.
Not to mention, I can’t fathom the thought of an OF defense comprised of Dunn/Burrell, DDJ, and Guillen. Good God.
Instead we have to fathom the reality of an OF offense of DDJ, Crisp, Guillen. Holy shit.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 19, 2008 2:54 PM EST up reply actions
Instead we have to fathom the reality of an OF offense of DDJ, Crisp, Guillen. Holy shit.
Isn’t it fun that the one guy (JoGui) who is the worst performer in the OF is the one guy we know won’t be replaced anytime soon? And that he’s the highest paid player on the team.
Really, really frustrating.
DDJ is still above average overall in LF… but when you’ve got mediocrity (Crisp) in CF and the Right-handed, Dominican Matt Stairs (Guillen — and I mean the 40 year-old Stairs) in right, well, there isn’t much DDJ can do.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 19, 2008 4:20 PM EST up reply actions
How do we know DDJ isn't being shopped?
He is probably the best chip that we have that we’d be willing to part with.
by I need more Esteban on Nov 19, 2008 3:10 PM EST up reply actions
thank god!
we can finally get Jeff Francoeur.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 19, 2008 4:21 PM EST up reply actions
Somebody is in a shame spiral
I know you’re in a bad place right now, but things aren’t quite that bad.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 19, 2008 4:22 PM EST up reply actions
NYRoyal,
I admit it. I ate the entire plate of cookies.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 19, 2008 4:39 PM EST up reply actions
Were the cookies made of shit?
Because you have a pretty sour expression on your face right now (at least the face I picture you having based on these exceptionally bitter posts).
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 19, 2008 4:41 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, I'm in a bad mood
but I’ll calm down on the rise home
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 19, 2008 4:42 PM EST up reply actions
His usually soft, rounded edges are now sharp and jagged
Don’t get too close.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 19, 2008 4:49 PM EST up reply actions
You don't have to tell me twice.
I’m impressed with myself that I was more positive about this trade than you. I’m nearly always more pessimistic than you about the Royals.
Indeed
We’re in a topsy turvy Bizarroworld now.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 19, 2008 4:52 PM EST up reply actions
NO
To me Ramon Ramirez was basically Joe Nathan in San Francisco. Nathan goes to the Twins and he’s a dominant closer. Ramon just needed an opportunity. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Boston move Ramirez into the closer role this year or next year and put Papelbon in the rotation like they wanted to do before.
Agreed.
Moving Papelbon is kooky talk. Everything I’ve seen points to the Sox now being able to (and wanting to) move Masterson back to the rotation.
by Sweep_the_Leg on Nov 19, 2008 5:01 PM EST up reply actions
Admittedly I don't follow Boston
But they tried to put Papelbon in the rotation once before and had to move him back because the new closer sucked so bad. I just think you guys are selling Ramon Ramirez short and I probably exaggerated a bit.
I think its the worst trade DM has made
That doesn’t make it a godawful trade, as I think most of his trades have been either good, or “meh”, but I think this is easily his worst.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Really?
I think Howell for Gathright was clearly worse, based on how they projected at the time (and of course how it actually panned out). I think the numbers show that this move is a small net improvement, and it dealt from a position that Moore can reload easily. Somewhat wrongheaded, like the Jacobs deal, but not his worst trade. I actually think the Jacobs trade was worse in that the Royals had other possibilities in-house they should have tried (like Kila) in 2009. But in the OF, the cupboard is bare.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 19, 2008 3:16 PM EST up reply actions
NY
how can you say the trade is the worst if either of the players haven’t played a single game for their respective teams yet?
by I need more Esteban on Nov 19, 2008 3:19 PM EST up reply actions
I assume you are talking about Jacobs-Nunez
I think you can evaluate trades before the guys have played. Of course anything can happen in the future, but you can project. I mean, I can say that the Pirates are a bad team, even though they haven’t played a 2009 game yet.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 19, 2008 3:21 PM EST up reply actions
Different situation, though.
I know that you can evaluate the trade on paper, but you can only get so far. You can’t say it’s a bad trade until they’ve played some games and proved that they were/were not valuable.
Mulder for Haren, looked like a great trade for the Cards, but years later we sit here and realize that because of Mulder getting hurt, the A’s got one of the best trades in recent memories.
by I need more Esteban on Nov 19, 2008 3:25 PM EST up reply actions
This rule would make for a really boring winter
Would TPJ for Longoria be a good trade? Even before they played a game? Cause I’d be excited, like, right awayish.
by kcdc1 on Nov 19, 2008 3:30 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I think the Gathright trade was bad
But had minimal impact. This has far greater impact.
I like the Jacobs deal more because he is cheaper and more controllable and I am optimistic he can improve his OBA. Crisp I think is pretty limited skill-wise, and there are even some doubts about his defense.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Some people like the trade for the Royals
A very sabermetric guy at Fangraphs thought it was a Royals win. Jim Callis thought it was a Royals win. I’m just saying it can be argued that this trade was a minor positive for the Royals. If that is true, I don’t think it can be his worst trade.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 19, 2008 3:23 PM EST up reply actions
I'm sure it can be viewed as a positive
But I do not share that view
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
That's cool
I’m just saying that so far there’s a smart guy crunching the numbers who says the Royals come out ahead (by more than a little) and a smart guy whose analysis is mostly tools-based who says the Royals come out ahead on the trade. And neither of these guys have a pro-Royals bias. They could be wrong, but are they so wrong that this is not only a bad trade, it is Dayton’s worst trade ever?
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 19, 2008 3:32 PM EST up reply actions
Again
I’m not saying its an awful trade. Its his worst trade ever, because most of his trades have been either good or “meh”.
Reasonable minds can differ as to whether this is a good trade or not. Time well tell.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Did you think the Jacobs trade was "meh"?
I thought it was worse than meh.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 19, 2008 3:57 PM EST up reply actions
Yea, I found it meh
I am optimistic about his OBA improving away from Miami and in KC.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
I very much hope you're right about his OBA improving (by more than just a very little)
Typically park differences don’t have a huge impact on OBA, as opposed to SLG.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 19, 2008 4:14 PM EST up reply actions
No more Royals Corner for you!
Improve all the way to .320? He’s hit more career homers at home than on the road… why would he improve in Kaufman? Especiallly when the one demonstrable difference between the AL and NL is the AL’s superior pitching?
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 19, 2008 4:22 PM EST up reply actions
You know what's even more sad about the "If I can get 10 more hits comment"?
It’s the fact that he thinks a .320 OBP would be good.
I hope this makes him more willing to trade Teahen for something good
Oh god I hope he trades him for something good. We need a clear win.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
Is that trade out there?
Even the rumored trades like Francisco or Pie haven’t sounded like anything that could be called a clear win.
Having said that, I like the idea of Pie.
. . . a weary nation turns to Gil Meche
i don't know if dayton trusts position prospects/young players
pitchers, yes, not postion guys it seems
Sure seems that way
I wonder if it’s just a matter of trying to keep a couple of “winners” around to keep keep the kids in check and as the team grows up then it’ll be Gordon, Aviles[?] at al who will lead the way for the next generation of players.
Kind of like the way the Braves had Sid Bream and Terry Pendleton until Chipper Jones and Ryan Klesko arrived.
. . . a weary nation turns to Gil Meche
He dosen't trust guys who aren't his
That’s maybe a bit unfair, and I’m sort of joking. But I guess not completely. Feel free to mock me, but ramirez might be the first of “his” guys he’s traded
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 19, 2008 4:23 PM EST up reply actions
Considering that he hasn't been here very long, it isn't surprising that he's just now trading one of his guys
It’s not like GM’s usually acquire players and then flip them within two years. BTW, he also acquired and flipped H. Ramirez. Maybe he’s just an anti-Ramirez biggot.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 19, 2008 4:25 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, that train just sailed.
. . . a weary nation turns to Gil Meche
Cedeno and Fontenot are still out there
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 19, 2008 3:17 PM EST up reply actions
If we can get a corner OFer for him
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 19, 2008 3:17 PM EST up reply actions
J. P. Howell came close
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 19, 2008 4:24 PM EST up reply actions
On a totally different note
I think its very cool we are adding another African-American player. I want the best players first and foremost, regardless of skin color, but I do like the idea of our franchise, which sits in what was the center of the universe for the Negro Leagues, having a significant African-American presence on the ballclub.
That being said, no Emil Brown please.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Emil Brown has been better than Jose Guillen 3 out of the last 4 seasons
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 19, 2008 4:24 PM EST up reply actions
You can throw out every statistic you want
Emil Brown, was not…better than Jose Guillen last season
by I need more Esteban on Nov 19, 2008 4:50 PM EST up reply actions
Pretty darn close though.
And when you consider the attitude and money. I’d take Brown.
I'll still take Guillen
I couldn’t take one more year of Emil Brown leading our team in HR’s and Rbi’s with 10 and 65….it’s just the principle of it.
by I need more Esteban on Nov 19, 2008 4:56 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, screw Ramon Ramirez and his cracker ass
I miss him already (sob). His awesome Gameday picture will live on forever and ever.
Amen.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 19, 2008 4:26 PM EST up reply actions
I also think its funny
This has over 300 comments on Royals Review, and 25 on the Red Sox SBNation site.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Royals rule, Red Sux drool!
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
by doublestix on Nov 19, 2008 3:05 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Best post ever. On this thread.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 19, 2008 4:27 PM EST up reply actions
Just a guess
They have gritty fast and non African American Ellsbury. Seems to be a much better fit for America’s most racist fan base.
. . . a weary nation turns to Gil Meche
because racists love native americans.
Don't Stop Believing!
by KC Chris on Nov 19, 2008 4:27 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Because even during football season
the Royals are the the most interesting sports team in Kansas City.
Chaim Mattis Keller New York City's # 1 Royals fan!
wow
well I’m not going to read all these comments, way too much. i think this is a nice get, although the salary kinda sucks.
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
Depends on your perspective
A guy who can play CF every day for a “bullpen guy” is a steal. We got far more for a retread reliever than should reasonably be expected.
. . . a weary nation turns to Gil Meche
yeah, he wasn't a retread
He was a talented, young, undervalued reliever on another MLB team. Dayton recognized his talent and got him for a song. H. Ramirez was a retread. Ramirez proved himself to be at least a pretty good reliever who was at a high selling point. No, Crisp is not more than one should reasonably expect to get in trade for Ramirez.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 19, 2008 5:00 PM EST up reply actions
And this is because middle-relievers
can be found a lot of different places.
by I need more Esteban on Nov 19, 2008 3:12 PM EST up reply actions
Yes
like at construction sites, local gyms, high school coaches offices…
. . . a weary nation turns to Gil Meche
He Says..
He Loves the guy.. he is a gamer. and is inexpensive and doesnt understand why they would trade him with Ellsbury’s struggles— aslo stating the crisp saved there season when ellsbury struggled and they should have kept him because they had him for 2 more years… also he thinks teams like the cubs are kicking there selves because what little it took to get coco…
ugh.
uh oh
he’s a “gamer”
That doesn’t bode well for the level of love he’ll get here. That’s a step up from “gritty”, right?
. . . a weary nation turns to Gil Meche
plus 4 wins
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 19, 2008 4:27 PM EST up reply actions
that part is true
Coco was awesome in July/August/September while Ellsbury really struggled.
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
Absolutely
agree with that last statement. If that’s true, maybe GMDM can flip Crisp and Teahen for Pie and Ronny Cedeno or Mike Fontenot.
Is that a win NY?
. . . a weary nation turns to Gil Meche
Noooooooo..
giving up way to much.. cedeno blows.. i dont think any of us understand NY Royal’s obsession with him..
ugh.
My obsession with.....Cedeno?
Huh?
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 19, 2008 3:20 PM EST up reply actions
No, I don't really want Cedeno
I would have done Teahen for Pie+Cedeno. And it isn’t because I love Cedeno. I think he has value, given his skills, performance and age. I think he’s as valuable as Rany thinks he is. Of course just because Rany agrees with me on Cedeno doesn’t mean I’m right. It just means I’m probably not a crackpot on this one.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 19, 2008 3:24 PM EST up reply actions
Teahen for Pie + Fontenot would be an enormous steal
With huge upside to make it look even better if Pie becomes good with the bat.
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
I agree it would be a good trade
not sure about enormous steal. Would be a clear win for the Royals.
Then again, Dayton seems pretty good at getting position players right after they’ve been good.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 19, 2008 4:28 PM EST up reply actions
Short Term
I think it would look good for the Cubs. Teahen could have a breakout season in the NL and playing half his games in Wrigley. Take that and his oddly good baserunning skills and they’d love him on the North Side.
. . . a weary nation turns to Gil Meche
I've probably been undervaluing Fontenot
Fontenot has had one good half season in the majors. I think people are putting too much weight on that. And I don’t like that he’s 28. As I have read and thought more about it, I probably like Fontenot more than Cedeno.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 19, 2008 3:27 PM EST up reply actions
Cedeno
seems more like a guy GMDM would go for. Sometimes you have to think about what’s likely and a slick fielding SS with a som stick is going to attract Moore’s eye.
As long as we’re evaluating hypothetical trades.
. . . a weary nation turns to Gil Meche
I'm going to have to trade
for some new fingers. My typing skills are gone.
. . . a weary nation turns to Gil Meche
Seems like DMGM's kind of guy
that is, replacement level position player a la TPJ, Gathright, Guillen, Gload, most of Shealy’s Royal career…
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 19, 2008 4:29 PM EST up reply actions
+1
I don’t get the fontenot love around here today….he hasn’t proven anything and there is a reason he’s didn’t play as much.
by I need more Esteban on Nov 19, 2008 3:45 PM EST up reply actions
You'd definitely be buying at the top
. . . a weary nation turns to Gil Meche
I'll give you the most honest answer I can muster at the moment
Crisp and Teahen for Pie, Cedeno and Fontenot….is that a win?
I don’t know, but I don’t think so.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 19, 2008 3:20 PM EST up reply actions
What kind of Pie is it again?
Coming to this thread late is making my head hurt… it seems like years ago that I was wasting time with my dumb little spreadsheet above…
Not serious, but why is Jim Callis evaluating players over 22 years old? I thought he was into cheap young studs…
Anyway, I’m not sure… I don’t think so. Too much uncertainty for Pie and Fontenot, although in different ways. Angel Sanchez could do what the Royals would need Cedeno to do, if you know what I mean, but he’s in Toronto now…
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 19, 2008 4:33 PM EST up reply actions
it seems like a lot of the positive spin is based on labels
Ram-Ram’s #s were comparable to Soria’s last season, but one was a “closer” and ram ram is a “middle reliever”
if it had been soria for crisp the same media people would be howling
They might be right.
Soria’s 3 years younger, has a better WHIP, can project as a starter and has thrived in the back end of the bullpen.
. . . a weary nation turns to Gil Meche
While Ram Ram had a very good season
None of the projection systems so far have him being anywhere near as good as Soria next year. So it’s not like Ram Ram is as good as Soria but Soria gets more credit just because he has saves. The stat heads recognize that Ram Ram isn’t nearly as good as Soria.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 19, 2008 3:25 PM EST up reply actions
Ellsbury struggled?
I thought he was a more valuable rookie than Aviles! That’s what the voters said!
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
True but you get votes
if you play for Boston or St Louis because they are pure baseball cities.
. . . a weary nation turns to Gil Meche
Good stuff
Even though his name makes me think he doesn’t actually exist, like Colonel Sanders or Coco Crisp.
. . . a weary nation turns to Gil Meche
some really good stuff in this thread
just to keep things organized, i’ve posted two fanposts on the trade, one for negatives one for positives
may be a way to keep the arguments straight
The other half of the trade
Most of discussion has been about Crisp, but let’s also look at Ramirez. No one was a bigger fan of Ramon Ramirez than me. I loved the guy and what he did. But looking at his value going forward, I think it is instructive to see what the projection systems think about Ram Ram for 2009.
ZiPS 4.02 ERA, 65 IP, 29 BB, 56 K
BJ 3.74 ERA, 67 IP, 28 BB, 62 K, 3.81 FIP
Marcel 3.86 ERA, 63 IP, 25 BB, 54 K, 3.76 FIP
Those ERA and FIP are just ok for a reliever. As Dave Cameron at Fangraphs said:
A 3.76 FIP is great for a starter, but just average for a reliever. You can get a 4.50 FIP from a replacement level reliever, and so over a projected 60 innings, you’re looking at a difference of 5 runs between Ramirez and a replacement level reliever. We have to multiply those five runs by 1.5 to account for the extra leverage of the situations he’ll likely be used in, but even still, that only makes him a +.75 win pitcher.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 19, 2008 3:38 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Good post.
You know, everyone wants to talk about trading the “big” pieces (i.e. Greinke and Soria) at the peak of their value, but I think that rule applies to all your players, too. Judging by those projections, we may look at Ramirez next year and realize that Dayton couldn’t have unloaded him at a better time.
by Sweep_the_Leg on Nov 19, 2008 4:01 PM EST up reply actions
i will agree with that.
He knows when to get rid of players… so it seems. Let’s see what happens to Nunez and Ram Ram next season and go from there.
Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.
He knows when to get rid of some players
Gathright was at his sell high moment after 2007, then his value dropped like a rock. And he obviously held onto Gload too long.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 19, 2008 4:05 PM EST up reply actions
Nunez
always struck me as the Royals Juan Cruz.
Good enough, but few shed any tears when he’s gone.
I don’t mind the Jacobs trade nearly as much as some others do. That probably makes me stupid and insane.
. . . a weary nation turns to Gil Meche
If you do the same analysis (i.e., without leverage considered), how does Soria come out?
Given that he had a worse FIP and less innings than Ramirez last year.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 19, 2008 4:34 PM EST up reply actions
I don't know. Soria's projections are certainly much better than Ramirez
I think Ramirez’s batted ball luck has something to do with that.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 19, 2008 4:37 PM EST up reply actions
Stat corner
says Soria was significantly luckier that Ramirez according to OxO, last time I checked. at least.
Gotta get the train!
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 19, 2008 4:40 PM EST up reply actions
And yet, all of the projection systems (so far) project Soria much better than Ramirez
But most of the best projection systems aren’t out yet. I’ll bet all of them have Soria significantly better than Ram Ram.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 19, 2008 4:43 PM EST up reply actions
I haven't chimed in yet
I have to say, I at least understand this trade from the Royals point of view. Evidently, Moore values OF defense more than we may think, probably due to our home ballpark.
I strongly agree with something NY alluded to – that at least this makes sense from an organizational depth point of view, versus the Jacobs deal, where the Royals actually did have a potential in-house solution in KK that, for whatever reason, they weren’t comfortable simply handing the 1B job too.
Here’s a weird way to look at it – would you rather have Jacobs or Crisp? Because the Royals paid a lot more to acquire Crisp than Jacobs. Since both are considered replacement level to perhaps a smidge above replacement level, doesn’t that sorta imply that the Royals may have won one trade, but lost the other?
Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!
by loyal2sdad on Nov 19, 2008 4:07 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
He values it
doesn’t know how to evaluate it properly: Cf. Guillen, Jose; Gathright, Joey
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 19, 2008 4:35 PM EST up reply actions
Late to the party, but
The only people calling this an absolute steal are people who don’t know who RamRam is. Trust me, Coco Crisp is going to be the shining definition of mediocrity.
Banny being Banny.
Nobody is calling this an absolute steal
And of course the analysts breaking this trade down know Ramon Ramirez and how good he is.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 19, 2008 4:31 PM EST up reply actions
FOCS post:
A Guy on MLB Home Plate just said and i quote "It is an ABSOLUTE steal for the royals"
I’m sure everyone knows about Ramon’s ever-important ZiPS though.
Also, Crisp’s offense was just never the same after this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pyMCUNImbZc&feature=related
Banny being Banny.
I'm sure you can find "a guy" who says that
I’m talking about serious analysts. Not fans or common, everyday Joe’s.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 19, 2008 4:39 PM EST up reply actions
Heck, you can find a guy who loves Gload.
I bet it’s Hawk Harrelson.
. . . a weary nation turns to Gil Meche
This guy was a serious analyst
cant remember his name though.. but he has his own show on home plate
ugh.
Having your own show doesn't make you a serious analysts
And by “serious” I mean intelligent, informed and good at being an analyst. Joe Morgan, for instance is a broadcaster and commentator, but not a serious analyst.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 19, 2008 4:51 PM EST up reply actions
Why this will work out
because instead of using RamRam 8th inning Soria 9th we’re now going SORIA 8th AND 9th!
WE JUST GOTS COCO CRISP FOR FREE!
Accidentally not thedude925 anymore. I do hate this new name.
Just Imagine
What we could get if Soria became a nine-inning starter!
. . . a weary nation turns to Gil Meche
500+ comments now... attention please
If this gets much larger, its going to start slowing down people’s CPUs (thats what she said). So I’m going to close this thread and encourage people to migrate over to the two fanposts I opened on the trade.
I know the negative/positive dichotomy isn’t totally ideal, but its worth experimenting with for such a wide-ranging discussion.
I’ll try to have my own thoughts posted later tonight.
Yours in the Spirit of Holdrege,
RR
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