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Jim Callis at ESPN Weighs in on Crisp Trade

Terry, NY: Who won the Crisp-Ramirez deal today?
Jim Callis: (2:04 PM ET ) I was surprised the Red Sox didn't get more for Crisp, and relievers are volatile, so I'll say the Royals. This deal will help Kansas City more than it will help Boston.

Dave (Raleigh, NC): I felt the same about the KC deal, not because I am a Royals fan, but that Ram Ram was the ultimate buy low (acquired for Jorge De La Rosa, essentially) a year ago. Now, what about Teahen and Buck to the Cubs for Fontenot, Theriot or Cedeno and a reliever?
Jim Callis: (2:10 PM ET ) Sounds like a Teahen for Fontenot or Cedeno deal is in the works.

Mike (CT): Is Hochevar ever going to pan out?
Jim Callis: (2:48 PM ET ) I'm far from the biggest fan. I'll put it this way: I don't think he'll justify being the No. 1 overall pick or a high first-round pick.

Link 7 months ago Tiny djk royal Comment 28 comments 0 recs |

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Teahen for Fontenot I could live with

Cedeno would get a big “blech” from me.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Nov 19, 2008 3:11 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I, too, could live with Teahen for Fontenot

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 19, 2008 3:37 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I say Fontenot+

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 19, 2008 3:53 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I think Teahen is worth more than Fontenot

They are about the same age, but Teahen has a much more extensive (and in some ways, more impressive) MLB track record, and is extremely versatile defensively. Fontenot-for-Teahen straight-up would be a steal for the Cubs. Fontenot + throw-in = I could live with.

by DarthYoshi on Nov 19, 2008 3:47 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

+7

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 19, 2008 3:53 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'm striving for precision in my +'s

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 19, 2008 4:06 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

prime numbers rule

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 19, 2008 10:48 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'll play contrarian

I sorta prefer to keep Teahen now.

Super sub role is important, and he could essentially spell any of the 4 outfielders at any time, since DDJ can play all 3 outfield spots. In addition, he would be available for occasional day off for Gordon at 3B.

Don’t forget – just because we have a surplus of 1b/DH types, this doesn’t preclude Hillman from moving Guillen to DH on occasion to improve the outfield defense.

Throw in potential roles as top LH pinch hitter off the bench, late inning defensive replacement, and top pinch runner, and you have one damn valuable player.

Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!

by loyal2sdad on Nov 20, 2008 11:18 AM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Good points, but I'll contrary you back

It’s good to have a quality supersub. But if you can flip him for something good (a good pitcher, a good 2B or some other area which can upgrade the team more than the value of his supersubness), then do it. I’m particularly interested in trading Teahen for a good, young player because Teahen only has 2 more years of team control and while he’s worth his $3-3.5M 2009 salary, he could easily make $5M in 2010 and I don’t think he’ll be worth that. So this is a good time to trade him.

Also, there’s another downside to keeping him around. Dutton reports that sources in the organization say that if Teahen isn’t traded, he might play 1B a lot, leaving Jacobs and Butler to split DH duties. So I think there is some downside risk to keeping Teahen around, as well as the potential value of trading him for a regular.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 20, 2008 11:26 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Teahn at first is a really, really, dumb idea

Even if Gload miraculously doesn’t make the roster, do the Royals need 4 1Bs even when two of them are Billy Butler and Mike Jacobs (maybe Jason Giambi is holding a fielding camp in the offseason they can attend)?

I love the idea of having the second best outfielder on the club being a supersub.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 20, 2008 11:30 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Do you think Teahen is better than Guillen?

;)

And I think it is poor analysis for you to look at a handful of very weak information (the defensive stats and projections which we currently have for Crisp) and conclude from that that Teahen is better than Crisp. It kind of sounds like, “I don’t care how little information I have, or how reliable or meaningful it is. These three things are stats and these stats say Crisp’s defense isn’t good enough to make him a better overall player than Teahen.”

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 20, 2008 11:54 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

My fanshot later will explain

I think Teahen is better overall. My thoughts on Crisps defense aren’t just drawn from the past year, but from stuff I’ve seen that has drawn on the last three years, and I think that’s a good sample size. I do think Crisp is probably a bit better defensively.

IN any case, I’m talking about the players total WAR, and the numbers says Teahen’s a better offensive player. It is the people making the opposite case who just draw on this last year — Teahen’s worst since his rookie year, and Crisp’s best since 2005 (in 2006 and 2007 he was an offensive disaster).

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 20, 2008 11:59 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I don't think that's fair or accurate

Tango doesn’t just pull numbers out of the air. He based on the positional adjustments on empirical evidence. Now you can have a problem with how he came up with the positional adjustments if you know how he did it and actually have a problem with that methodology. I think the positional adjustments are fair and do as good of a job as any at making that kind of adjustment.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 20, 2008 6:37 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I read through his methodology a week or two ago

They’re guesses. The relative adjustment between CF and the corner outfield spots aren’t quite as bad as the absolute numbers he gives for each position, but I wouldn’t take either offerings as much more than opinions.

by kcdc1 on Nov 21, 2008 3:00 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

So his methodology is basically just him eyeballing it and making the adjustments based on his gut? It doesn’t have anything to do with the empirical evidence of the historical differences in offensive output of different positions?

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 21, 2008 3:33 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

No....it's psuedo-emprical

As I understand it, he looked at how individual players relative performance at different positions. DDJ would be a good example—maybe DDJ is a -5 centerfielder, but a +10 left-fielder, so Tango’s method would record that as a data point that says center field is worth 15 more runs than left field. I believe he ended up concluding that a league average offensive player playing league average CF is worth .5 more wins than a league average offensive player playing league average LF.

I’m not at all impressed with the method. There’s an implicit assumption that the required skills for CF, LF, and RF are all the same, and a player’s performance at each of those positions is simply a matter of the quantity of those same skills that the player has. Additionally, this method only uses data points from outfielders who play both CF and at least one corner outfield position. Can we really conclude that since there’s about a 20 run difference between CF and LF for tweener outfielders like DDJ, that this would be the case for a Manny Ramirez?

I’m sure I can come up with more objections along those lines if we want to continue, but like I said, the relative values between the OF positions are the strongest points of the adjustments. The absolute values are, in my opinion, frightening. I’m sure you can find his write-ups with a little google-ing, but basically, to get the absolute adjustments, he looked at the relative performance of players who split time between corner outfield spots and first base. Then he looked at the relative performance between players who split time at first base as compared to other infield positions. That’s two very tenuous leaps since it’s very clear that the necessary skills are not at all the same between OF and 1B, nor are they at all the same between SS and 1B. Meanwhile, the cather adjustment is quite literally pulled out of thin air.

The best part is that after he did all that, he decided that the adjustments for the OF were to generous while the adjustments for the infield were too small, so he essentially bumped the infield spots up .5 wins for not throwing left-handed. Look it up, I swear.

The end result of all this gives you position adjustments that look about like you’d expect. So use them if you like, but take them as common baseball sense guesses rather than robust statistics.

by kcdc1 on Nov 21, 2008 4:38 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I hope this still gets read

what adjustments would you recommend? Seriously, I’m always on the lookout for better information.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 21, 2008 5:22 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'm surprised it did get read

I don’t know of any better adjustments. I don’t even necessarily think the final numbers he came up with are that bad. As a baseball fan, they sound about right-ish.

How else would one get at the relative value between average CF defense and average LF defense? Someone needs to come up with a Value Over Replacement Defender.

by kcdc1 on Nov 21, 2008 5:44 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I wish this thread wasn't so far pushed down

I’m glad you responded. I’ll have to got back and look at his post. He’s recently done some more stuff on it, but some of the suggested adjustments (and I don’t think he’s adopted them yet) are so extreme that people are reacting negatively. I think it’s the sort of thing that is really complicated. Too complicated for me to figure out on my own.

I’ll have to go back and look. I simply took them over because other people were using them and they sounded right to me. I prefer it to starting with the seasonal offensive average at the position (I think that’s what VORP does, could be wrong) and thus doesn’t assume a certain level of offense/defense — its more flexible in allowing different combinations of defense/offense all over the field. If that makes any sense. But I need to go back to it.

I’m glad you’re pointing this stuff out, though. Gets me to think about it more carefully. ‘Cause, you know, I’m totally gonna work in baseball.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 21, 2008 10:45 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

made up

just like BABIP, defensive metrics, and Eskimos.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 20, 2008 6:57 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

My thoughts on Crisps defense aren’t just drawn from the past year, but from stuff I’ve seen that has drawn on the last three years

Here’s the problem. The + or – from each of those years is significantly flawed in its reliability because each of them was from an insufficiently small sample size. Therefore taking those 3 half-time, insufficiently small sample sizes and drawing conclusions by mashing them up together is inherently flawed.

I’m not saying Crisp is necessarily a lot better defensively than Teahen. What I’m saying is that we can’t rely on the metrics we have to describe how good/bad Crisp is defensively. They give us some information, but it is not particularly meaningful or reliable.

My opinion, from everything I’ve seen and read about Teahen and Crisp’s defense is that Teahen is a pretty good (better than average) defensive corner OFer and Crisp is a pretty good (better than average) defensive CFer. Understanding the difference between an above average defensive CFer as opposed to corner OFer, leads to the conclusion that Crisp is a significantly better defensive player than Teahen. Given that he has better speed and has been playing the OF for a long time, and thus likely gets better reads and jumps, that makes sense. In short, an OF with DeJesus and Crisp is likely considerably better defensively than an OF with Dejesus and Teahen.

IN any case, I’m talking about the players total WAR, and the numbers says Teahen’s a better offensive player

Ok. I assumed when you were talking about who is the second best OFer on the club, you were talking about offense and defense. You usually don’t split those two up when you are talking about how good a player is.

I don’t think any (at least not many) are saying that Crisp is a better offensive player than Teahen. But with the positional adjustment and superior defense, I think Crisp is likely the better all around player (allowing for the caveat that his defense is an open question. There are lot of opinions out there and no real dispositive information. That’s why I’ve posted many times that the resolution of the question mark that is his defense is the key to evaluating this trade).

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 20, 2008 12:13 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I actually think the three outfielders that should start

are DDJ, Crisp, and Teahen – but I posted the bit about keeping Teahen as a supersub because I assume there is no way Guillen will be traded, and no way they make him the 4th outfielder.

I purposely left off 1B in my description of Teahen’s “supersubness”, and I agree that using him in that manner would be dumb.

If NYRoyal is correct and the organization is actually entertaining even the THOUGHT of moving Teahen to 1B and platooning Jacobs/Butler at 1B, then that would CHANGE my desire entirely. Better to trade him than let Hillman do something extraordinarily stupid with his lineup decisions.

Make a 23 year old DH a platoon, and a platoon who gets only 50 or 60 starts to boot? Surely the organization can’t be that insane, can they?

I think I’d almost rather have Butler go back to AAA and play 1B for a year and work on his approach vs righthanders than have him waste a year in the bigs as the smaller half of a platoon DH.

Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!

by loyal2sdad on Nov 20, 2008 6:12 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Indeed, L2D. Hoagie

Would never accept being the lesser half of a RF platoon with Teahen, but that would be the best way to use him in the current roster. Most everything I said about Rivera (had we signed him as an FA) applies to Guillen. He’d see plenty of time in LF, too, given DDJ and CC’s fragility, and he’d be great to have lurking on the bench as a PH. We could field this lineup:

Crisp CF (you know he’ll lead off)
DDJ LF
Gordon 3B
Jacobs DH
Butler 1B
Teahen RF
Aviles SS
Buck/Pena C
Callaspo 2B
Bench- Olivo, German, Guillen, Shealy

Against RHP’s and this lineup:

Crisp CF
Aviles SS
DDJ LF
Guillen RF
Butler DH
Gordon 3B
Olivo C
Shealy 1B
Callaspo 2b
Bench- Buck/Pena, German, Teahen, Jacobs

Against LHP.

Unfortunately, the $12M man and Olivo would not stand for being the lesser half of a platoon at this point. I still think we’ll see at least one more big move with a position player before March. I hope it’s Guillen, but that’s probably not realistic. More likely Teahen or DDJ goes away.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Nov 20, 2008 8:37 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

So you are going to play Pena against lefties when he hits righties better?

Also having Olivo bat agaisnt all righties because he is the “starter” is very funny.

Go Royals!

by BabyBlues on Nov 20, 2008 9:52 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

i think you misread it.

the top one is vs RHP, the bottom is vs LHP.

those lineups are actually very close to mine. i did put Hozay in the lineup for both, because we all know he will, but other than that…

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Nov 21, 2008 12:15 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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