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Catch-all Thread: The Crisp Trade (Positives Only)

OK, the initial fanshot on the trade is getting massive, which is awesome, but also a bit bulky.

Do you like the Crisp-Ramirez trade? Or are you mixed but still see positive signs?

Coco1_medium

via yorkroberts.files.wordpress.com


 

Hit me with your positive thoughts here. I'd like to see what people think and sorta get things organized.

Negatives will go in a different fanpost.

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I like that we are improving the alliteration on this ballclub

Coco Crisp can concentrate KC confidence, could Callaspo concur?

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Nov 19, 2008 3:33 PM EST   0 recs

except that we got rid of Ramon Ramirez

it’s a wash on the alliterative front

The concept of progress acts as a protective mechanism to shield us from the terrors of the future. - Collected sayings of Muad'Dib

by buddyball on Nov 19, 2008 5:31 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

That should be difficult

sarcasm font

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 19, 2008 4:37 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

+1.

That’s really the bottom line. And we could argue all day (well, I guess we basically HAVE) about all sorts of other options in trades or FA, CF’s vs. corner OF’s. But all the Royals gave up was two middle relievers, which Dayton has already established he can replace fairly easily.

by Sweep_the_Leg on Nov 19, 2008 5:14 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Outfield defense significantly improves

Just imagine if we could somehow move Guillen and keep Teahen? A DJ-Crisp-Teahen OF could cover a lot of ground.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Nov 19, 2008 3:36 PM EST   0 recs

trade Teahen for Pie

LF DeJesus
CF Crisp
RF Pie

Now THAT is a sick outfield. That would save soooooooo many runs defensively.

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Nov 19, 2008 4:00 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

And Paulo Orlando as the 4th OFer

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 19, 2008 4:01 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Crisp pie?

Just in time for Thanksgiving!

Kansas City Royals: your 2006 and 2007 NL Central champions!

by mazoboom on Nov 19, 2008 4:07 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

The other half of the trade

The other half of the trade
Most of discussion has been about Crisp, but let’s also look at Ramirez. No one was a bigger fan of Ramon Ramirez than me. I loved the guy and what he did. But looking at his value going forward, I think it is instructive to see what the projection systems think about Ram Ram for 2009.

ZiPS 4.02 ERA, 65 IP, 29 BB, 56 K
BJ 3.74 ERA, 67 IP, 28 BB, 62 K, 3.81 FIP
Marcel 3.86 ERA, 63 IP, 25 BB, 54 K, 3.76 FIP

Those ERA and FIP are just ok for a reliever. As Dave Cameron at Fangraphs said:

A 3.76 FIP is great for a starter, but just average for a reliever. You can get a 4.50 FIP from a replacement level reliever, and so over a projected 60 innings, you’re looking at a difference of 5 runs between Ramirez and a replacement level reliever. We have to multiply those five runs by 1.5 to account for the extra leverage of the situations he’ll likely be used in, but even still, that only makes him a +.75 win pitcher.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 19, 2008 3:40 PM EST   0 recs

interesting

but the royals also were terrible defensively…

in my mind i remember ram-ram as one of the better relievers in the AL, but he may not have been that good…

by royalsreview on Nov 19, 2008 4:35 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

No, Ramram wasn't significantly lucky relative to Soria

I’m not saying Ramirez is a better pitcher than Soria, and I don’t believe it. But he happened to pitch better than him in 2008, and for more innings. This is all leverage aside — Soria pitched more important innings, of course, but that’s not Ramram’s fault. All stats are 2008.

Start with simple BABIP stuff (that I’m sure can be corrected) (LD% +12)

Soria LD14.5 =xBABIP of .265. Actual BABIP? .215 xBABIP-BABIP = .50

RamRam LD 18.7% =xBABIP of .307. Actual BABIP? .294 XBabip-BABIP = .13

I know that’s very simple, but on the simple version, Soria was considerably lucky with batted balls that Ramirez in 2008.

Let’s do THT FIP, xFIP, and stuff.

Soria’s ERA was obviously better than RamRam’s at 1.60. Awesome.

Good FIP, too, at 3.30, but not as studly as his 2.51 in 2007. FIP-ERA = 1.7

Soria xFIP =3.75. Interesting, didn’t Dave Camerson at Fangraphs, in a post about how Ramram isn’t that good, say that sort of FIP is suitable for a starter rather than a reliever? [Cue withdrawal of earlier endorsements of Cameron’s post] That’s certainly what I think, Dave, but not the way you mean it, or who you mean it for…

RamRam’s ERA was not close to Soria’s awesome mark, but 2.64 isn’t bad.

His FIP was 2.69. So ERA-FIP = .05. A bit luckier there, but nowhere close to Soria’s in that regard.

Ramirez’s xFIP was 3.61k, which indicates more luck, perhaps. But again, that’s better than Soria’s 3.75.

What’ left? Well, I don’t know exacltly how tRA works, but it’s basically as souped-up FIP, adjusted for park and league and I think for batted ball data and stuff. Check it out at www.statcorner.com, although I bet most already h ave. It’s cool… shows how great Greinke, Meche, Soria, Ramirez, and even more ol’ Leo Nunez were this year.

I’ve gone over this before, how both Ramirez and Soria had great tRA stats this year. Soria’s tRA in 2008 was 2.82, for a tRA + of 137.

An associated stat is O-xO, which uses data to show the pitchers “defensive support.” A positive number means the defense gave the pitcher more help than might be expected (thus, the pitcher for more than the expected outs), a negative number shows bad luck. Soria’s number was 7. A bit lucky in that regard. xRR is expected versus recorded runs. Soria was also slghtly lucky there, with 2. It’s amazing, given the Royals defensive struggles this year, that any of their pitchers did well in this.

Also important for measuing total contribution is pRAA, which takes the pitchers tRA relative ot league average and multiples it by IP in otder to give runs above average. Soria was at a healthy 11.8.

Ramirez out-tRAed Soria to the tune of 2.60. Given his greater innings, that means he had a pRAA of 15.1 — highest for any pitcher on the Royals other than Greinke and Meche. As I’ve said many places, this was the third highest total for any reliver in the AL, behind only Rivera and Papelbon. His tRA+ was 142.

How about defense? Ramriez O-xO was minus 3. bad Luck. His xRR was minus 2. Bad luck.

There is one “luck” related stat that shows Ramram was a bit luckier that Soria. It’s tRA*, which uses all sorts of regression to get to the pitchers “true talent,” but just for that one season, whatever that means. Anyway, soria does do better than Ramram there, but it’s close — Soria is at 3.37, Ramram at 3.42.

So, to conclude this boring comment no one will read — Soria is definitely a better pitcher (so good that he should be starting and Ramirez closing, really), and even in this season, his true talent was better. But if one of them was lucky, everythingn I can find says it was Soria.

P.S. Ramirez was bad in 2007, so that is p art of ihs performance history — but it’s not just luck or out of nowhere. His tRA stats were awesome in 2006 as well.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 19, 2008 11:52 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Exactly

There is a good chance that the random arms DM brings in from the organization, Rule 5, or free agency meet or exceed RamRam’s 2009 performance.

by BlueEyes_Austin on Nov 19, 2008 3:44 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

I call shenanigans on that

DM is getting lucky. Besides, we forget he massively missed on Yabuta. And if being a good reliever is all luck, why don’t we just go with 6-7 random guys in the pen? Hell, if it’s that easy, just take them all out of AAA in the Rule 5 draft. That’ll save a ton of money!!

BTW, if you think we sold high on Ramirez, you are mistaken. We just pulled the equivalent of selling a stock after it doubled. That’s nice, but if that stock turns out to be Wal-Mart or Dell or Microsoft in the early days, you’ll kick yourself later. Yes, I know he’s a couple of years from 30, but we had him under control for 2009, 2010, 2011, and 2012. I think we sold too early.

by AxDxMx on Nov 19, 2008 10:18 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Even the best GMs make the occasional boneheaded move

(Although despite the title, I do not consider Moore to be in the “best GMs” category).

Yeah, Yabuta was a mistake, but he was a very minor mistake. He was a FA signing, so we didn’t give up any talent to get him (unlike Crisp or Jacobs), and he was a relatively cheap FA signing at that. He’ll end up costing us $6 mil over 2 years. Now, if that $3 mil per year keeps us from being able to, say, sign Greinke to an extension, then that will suck, but really, beyond that, the Yabuta signing is something that I am happy to give Moore a pass on. For every Yabuta or Tomko signing, Moore has made some very wise moves for the pitching staff. I do not doubt GMDM’s ability to build an above-average pitching staff.

I like RamRam a lot too, and I am far from sold on this trade, but setup relievers who lack the hellaciously overrated “closer” tag only bring so much in trade. Eventually, RamRam’s value was going to hit a ceiling no matter how talented he was, unless the Royals were willing to try him as their closer. And since Moore has proven unwilling to move Soria from that role, it puts a significant limitation on RamRam’s trade value. Basically, I don’t think RamRam’s trade value would have skyrocketed like the value of Microsoft’s stock because of his role as a non-closer relief pitcher.

by DarthYoshi on Nov 20, 2008 7:54 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Lucky?

That’s just silly. He didn’t get lucky. He’s good at finding good pitchers. Of course he’s not 100%; nobody is. Moore has a very good track record of success in building a bullpen from many sources: FA, trade, Rule 5, waiver wire, minor league FA. In short, Moore knows what he’s doing with pitchers; hitters, not so much. So there is very good reason to believe he will again build a good bullpen.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 20, 2008 8:03 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Mildly Positive

Eliminates at least a couple of hundred appalling bats from Gator. RamRam was fine but a great candidate to collapse as well.

by BlueEyes_Austin on Nov 19, 2008 3:43 PM EST   0 recs

Really good value trade

In a vacuum, I think Crisp will be more valuable in 2009 than Ramirez.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Nov 19, 2008 3:44 PM EST   0 recs

No, but this is the positive thread

Crisp does have an awesome name. And in MLB Gameday 2005 or whatever, awesome power.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 19, 2008 11:53 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Some number crunchers disagree with you, d_f

You disagree with Dave Cameron’s numbers? (at Fangraphs)

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 20, 2008 7:30 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Look at it this way

We got Coco Crisp for what was originally just a waiver claim.

By that same logic we got Mike Jacobs for Benito Santiago.

by raefzilla on Nov 19, 2008 3:48 PM EST   0 recs

good point

and I’m glad he did it

by royalsreview on Nov 19, 2008 4:36 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

time to sell high on JoGui

and yes, I know exactly what I said

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 19, 2008 11:53 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

+8.3

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 19, 2008 4:01 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Our recent, prior Af-Am players, like...

…Michael Tucker, Brian McRae, and Jermaine Dye, were all pretty cool too. Who am I missing? Anyway, Crisp will be good for us. He is most definitely an improvement over Gaithright. – TL

[In 2008] Kila Ka’aihue had the best on-base percentage of any hitter in the minor leagues. - Joe Posnanski, 11/9/2008 ... Ergo, let's give him a shot at first base in KC in 2009.

by timlacy on Nov 19, 2008 4:45 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

EMIL!

There was also Ken Harvey

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Nov 19, 2008 4:53 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

It's easy to...

…forget about Emil. But how could I forget about Harvey? I wanted to much for that guy to succeed—-to be our Kirby Puckett. – TL

[In 2008] Kila Ka’aihue had the best on-base percentage of any hitter in the minor leagues. - Joe Posnanski, 11/9/2008 ... Ergo, let's give him a shot at first base in KC in 2009.

by timlacy on Nov 19, 2008 4:57 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

GRIMACE!!!!

He could cutoff a throw with his back like no other player in MLB.

by Sweep_the_Leg on Nov 19, 2008 5:18 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

GATHRIGHT WASN'T A STARTER!

What are you people missing here? He’s not replacing Gathright, though it does bump him off the team most likely.

by AxDxMx on Nov 19, 2008 10:19 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Interesting, Brian McRae is ZiPS #1 comp for CoCo Crisp

yes we can!

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 19, 2008 11:54 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

+8.3?!

You sir, have gone too far.

by jsolo on Nov 19, 2008 5:17 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

I seriously considered 8.5. No joke.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 19, 2008 5:19 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

But

If he’s replacing Gathright, isn’t he just replacing another African-American player?

by BrRoyal on Nov 20, 2008 10:44 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

damn damn damn damn damn

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 20, 2008 11:20 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Well, what can I say?

I was the first in line to scream for a trade like this, it makes so much sense.
If Teahen remains on the team, then we should have enough to win the division now.

Go Royals!

by BabyBlues on Nov 19, 2008 4:07 PM EST   0 recs

Wow

There’s some optimism. I dunno about “should” be enough to win, but maybe they “could.”

by raefzilla on Nov 19, 2008 4:09 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

you think this team has improved by more than 10 wins?

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 19, 2008 4:12 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

don't forget we have a new hitting coach!

The concept of progress acts as a protective mechanism to shield us from the terrors of the future. - Collected sayings of Muad'Dib

by buddyball on Nov 19, 2008 5:22 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

That's only +5 wins

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 19, 2008 5:27 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

a new hitting coach who is an ex-Royal

+8.75 wins
Jacobs +1.37 wins
Coco Crisp + .88 wins
Total = 11 wins!

The concept of progress acts as a protective mechanism to shield us from the terrors of the future. - Collected sayings of Muad'Dib

by buddyball on Nov 19, 2008 5:33 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

You're not factoring in Grit

Jacobs Grit +.42 wins
Crisp Grit +1.58 wins

Grand Total = 13 wins!

That is, unless this means Gload is off the roster, in which case it’s a net -7.89 wins. :(

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 19, 2008 5:42 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Jonny Gomes NOW

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 19, 2008 11:54 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Barring a blockbuster move (like, I dunno, trading TPJ and a bag of baseballs for Ryan Braun)...

I will bet you a twelve-pack of your choice of beer that the Royals do not win the division in 2009.

by DarthYoshi on Nov 19, 2008 4:12 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Barring something like that

I’d be shocked if the Royals won 85 games, much less a good, competitive division like the AL Central.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 19, 2008 4:13 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

First, that is exceptionally unlikely. Second, having multiple good teams in the division will make it that much harder to get to 85 wins. Third, the Royals are extremely unlikely to win 85 games in 2009.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 19, 2008 6:32 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Barring some trades that make sense from GMDM

I’d be willing to bet that the Royals revert to previous form as the bullpen falls apart and blows game after game for us. Dayton has gone to the well too many times to keep pulling up valuable relievers out of nothing. We can’t use Soria if we can’t get to him.

by AxDxMx on Nov 19, 2008 10:21 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

So apparently Moore's history of success is meaningless

Does that mean that his history of failure with position players means that he’s going to start acquiring good ones now too?

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 20, 2008 7:32 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

First, it isnt a “mystery bonus.” It is a statistical fact. Second, the current bullpen probably doesn’t warrant it. But I think the bullpen will look somewhat different on opening day.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 20, 2008 7:33 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Teahan is a great...

…fourth outfielder on this team—-plus his infield capabilities. – TL

[In 2008] Kila Ka’aihue had the best on-base percentage of any hitter in the minor leagues. - Joe Posnanski, 11/9/2008 ... Ergo, let's give him a shot at first base in KC in 2009.

by timlacy on Nov 19, 2008 4:45 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

He'll be traded soon I think.

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Nov 19, 2008 4:56 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

But at least now we...

…don’t have to trade him. We can wait for value. – TL

[In 2008] Kila Ka’aihue had the best on-base percentage of any hitter in the minor leagues. - Joe Posnanski, 11/9/2008 ... Ergo, let's give him a shot at first base in KC in 2009.

by timlacy on Nov 19, 2008 4:58 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

We never had to trade him

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 19, 2008 5:01 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

That is a great point...

and one of the subtle, intangible benefits of this deal. IF Dayton still wants to move Teahen (or please no) DDJ, then at least now he can do so from a better position leverage-wise. Also, if Teahen does stay, then Gload is all but gone (putting aside grit-considerations).

by Sweep_the_Leg on Nov 19, 2008 5:22 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

The positive to me is either this signals another move

or KC just added depth in CF and will eliminate Joey and Mitch. An OF 4some of DDJ, Teahen, Guillen and Crisp is better than last years foursome. Crisp would add some depth for DDJ who we know will be hit with some nagging injury during the season.

It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.

by kcscoliny on Nov 19, 2008 4:24 PM EST   0 recs

This move definitely adds CF depth which is scarce.

Maybe we trade DDJ to the Yankees for Phil Hughes now. God knows they need a CF.

by djk royal on Nov 19, 2008 4:38 PM EST   0 recs

Lets steal Hughes from them.

Gator for hughes :)

ugh.

by focs on Nov 19, 2008 5:14 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

I'm pretty sure

we would have to physically steal him from the ballpark if Gator was our offer.

Don't Stop Believing!

by KC Chris on Nov 19, 2008 5:15 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Yes, an armed gang would be required

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 19, 2008 5:20 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

How About Flipping

Crisp to the Yanks at the deadline next year?

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Nov 19, 2008 5:54 PM EST to parent up   0 recs <