Catch-all Thread: The Crisp Trade (Positives Only)
OK, the initial fanshot on the trade is getting massive, which is awesome, but also a bit bulky.
Do you like the Crisp-Ramirez trade? Or are you mixed but still see positive signs?
via yorkroberts.files.wordpress.com
Hit me with your positive thoughts here. I'd like to see what people think and sorta get things organized.
Negatives will go in a different fanpost.
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I like that we are improving the alliteration on this ballclub
Coco Crisp can concentrate KC confidence, could Callaspo concur?
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
except that we got rid of Ramon Ramirez
it’s a wash on the alliterative front
The concept of progress acts as a protective mechanism to shield us from the terrors of the future. - Collected sayings of Muad'Dib
Royals are improving their team
Jacobs > Gload
Crisp > Gathright
Crisp his over .400 in the playoffs and did preety good in the 2nd half of the season and for all the OBP guys out there.. in the second half of the season he had over a .390 OBP
ugh.
by focs on Nov 19, 2008 3:35 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
That should be difficult
sarcasm font
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 19, 2008 4:37 PM EST up reply actions
+1.
That’s really the bottom line. And we could argue all day (well, I guess we basically HAVE) about all sorts of other options in trades or FA, CF’s vs. corner OF’s. But all the Royals gave up was two middle relievers, which Dayton has already established he can replace fairly easily.
by Sweep_the_Leg on Nov 19, 2008 5:14 PM EST up reply actions
Outfield defense significantly improves
Just imagine if we could somehow move Guillen and keep Teahen? A DJ-Crisp-Teahen OF could cover a lot of ground.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
trade Teahen for Pie
LF DeJesus
CF Crisp
RF Pie
Now THAT is a sick outfield. That would save soooooooo many runs defensively.
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
And Paulo Orlando as the 4th OFer
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 19, 2008 4:01 PM EST up reply actions
Crisp pie?
Just in time for Thanksgiving!
Kansas City Royals: your 2006 and 2007 NL Central champions!
The other half of the trade
The other half of the trade
Most of discussion has been about Crisp, but let’s also look at Ramirez. No one was a bigger fan of Ramon Ramirez than me. I loved the guy and what he did. But looking at his value going forward, I think it is instructive to see what the projection systems think about Ram Ram for 2009.
ZiPS 4.02 ERA, 65 IP, 29 BB, 56 K
BJ 3.74 ERA, 67 IP, 28 BB, 62 K, 3.81 FIP
Marcel 3.86 ERA, 63 IP, 25 BB, 54 K, 3.76 FIP
Those ERA and FIP are just ok for a reliever. As Dave Cameron at Fangraphs said:
A 3.76 FIP is great for a starter, but just average for a reliever. You can get a 4.50 FIP from a replacement level reliever, and so over a projected 60 innings, you’re looking at a difference of 5 runs between Ramirez and a replacement level reliever. We have to multiply those five runs by 1.5 to account for the extra leverage of the situations he’ll likely be used in, but even still, that only makes him a +.75 win pitcher.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
Why the substantial jumps in ERA in the projections?
Was RamRam that lucky last year?
He did have some significant batted ball luck, if I remember correctly
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 19, 2008 3:45 PM EST up reply actions
interesting
but the royals also were terrible defensively…
in my mind i remember ram-ram as one of the better relievers in the AL, but he may not have been that good…
No, Ramram wasn't significantly lucky relative to Soria
I’m not saying Ramirez is a better pitcher than Soria, and I don’t believe it. But he happened to pitch better than him in 2008, and for more innings. This is all leverage aside — Soria pitched more important innings, of course, but that’s not Ramram’s fault. All stats are 2008.
Start with simple BABIP stuff (that I’m sure can be corrected) (LD% +12)
Soria LD14.5 =xBABIP of .265. Actual BABIP? .215 xBABIP-BABIP = .50
RamRam LD 18.7% =xBABIP of .307. Actual BABIP? .294 XBabip-BABIP = .13
I know that’s very simple, but on the simple version, Soria was considerably lucky with batted balls that Ramirez in 2008.
Let’s do THT FIP, xFIP, and stuff.
Soria’s ERA was obviously better than RamRam’s at 1.60. Awesome.
Good FIP, too, at 3.30, but not as studly as his 2.51 in 2007. FIP-ERA = 1.7
Soria xFIP =3.75. Interesting, didn’t Dave Camerson at Fangraphs, in a post about how Ramram isn’t that good, say that sort of FIP is suitable for a starter rather than a reliever? [Cue withdrawal of earlier endorsements of Cameron’s post] That’s certainly what I think, Dave, but not the way you mean it, or who you mean it for…
RamRam’s ERA was not close to Soria’s awesome mark, but 2.64 isn’t bad.
His FIP was 2.69. So ERA-FIP = .05. A bit luckier there, but nowhere close to Soria’s in that regard.
Ramirez’s xFIP was 3.61k, which indicates more luck, perhaps. But again, that’s better than Soria’s 3.75.
What’ left? Well, I don’t know exacltly how tRA works, but it’s basically as souped-up FIP, adjusted for park and league and I think for batted ball data and stuff. Check it out at www.statcorner.com, although I bet most already h ave. It’s cool… shows how great Greinke, Meche, Soria, Ramirez, and even more ol’ Leo Nunez were this year.
I’ve gone over this before, how both Ramirez and Soria had great tRA stats this year. Soria’s tRA in 2008 was 2.82, for a tRA + of 137.
An associated stat is O-xO, which uses data to show the pitchers “defensive support.” A positive number means the defense gave the pitcher more help than might be expected (thus, the pitcher for more than the expected outs), a negative number shows bad luck. Soria’s number was 7. A bit lucky in that regard. xRR is expected versus recorded runs. Soria was also slghtly lucky there, with 2. It’s amazing, given the Royals defensive struggles this year, that any of their pitchers did well in this.
Also important for measuing total contribution is pRAA, which takes the pitchers tRA relative ot league average and multiples it by IP in otder to give runs above average. Soria was at a healthy 11.8.
Ramirez out-tRAed Soria to the tune of 2.60. Given his greater innings, that means he had a pRAA of 15.1 — highest for any pitcher on the Royals other than Greinke and Meche. As I’ve said many places, this was the third highest total for any reliver in the AL, behind only Rivera and Papelbon. His tRA+ was 142.
How about defense? Ramriez O-xO was minus 3. bad Luck. His xRR was minus 2. Bad luck.
There is one “luck” related stat that shows Ramram was a bit luckier that Soria. It’s tRA*, which uses all sorts of regression to get to the pitchers “true talent,” but just for that one season, whatever that means. Anyway, soria does do better than Ramram there, but it’s close — Soria is at 3.37, Ramram at 3.42.
So, to conclude this boring comment no one will read — Soria is definitely a better pitcher (so good that he should be starting and Ramirez closing, really), and even in this season, his true talent was better. But if one of them was lucky, everythingn I can find says it was Soria.
P.S. Ramirez was bad in 2007, so that is p art of ihs performance history — but it’s not just luck or out of nowhere. His tRA stats were awesome in 2006 as well.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 19, 2008 11:52 PM EST up reply actions
Exactly
There is a good chance that the random arms DM brings in from the organization, Rule 5, or free agency meet or exceed RamRam’s 2009 performance.
by BlueEyes_Austin on Nov 19, 2008 3:44 PM EST up reply actions
I call shenanigans on that
DM is getting lucky. Besides, we forget he massively missed on Yabuta. And if being a good reliever is all luck, why don’t we just go with 6-7 random guys in the pen? Hell, if it’s that easy, just take them all out of AAA in the Rule 5 draft. That’ll save a ton of money!!
BTW, if you think we sold high on Ramirez, you are mistaken. We just pulled the equivalent of selling a stock after it doubled. That’s nice, but if that stock turns out to be Wal-Mart or Dell or Microsoft in the early days, you’ll kick yourself later. Yes, I know he’s a couple of years from 30, but we had him under control for 2009, 2010, 2011, and 2012. I think we sold too early.
Even the best GMs make the occasional boneheaded move
(Although despite the title, I do not consider Moore to be in the “best GMs” category).
Yeah, Yabuta was a mistake, but he was a very minor mistake. He was a FA signing, so we didn’t give up any talent to get him (unlike Crisp or Jacobs), and he was a relatively cheap FA signing at that. He’ll end up costing us $6 mil over 2 years. Now, if that $3 mil per year keeps us from being able to, say, sign Greinke to an extension, then that will suck, but really, beyond that, the Yabuta signing is something that I am happy to give Moore a pass on. For every Yabuta or Tomko signing, Moore has made some very wise moves for the pitching staff. I do not doubt GMDM’s ability to build an above-average pitching staff.
I like RamRam a lot too, and I am far from sold on this trade, but setup relievers who lack the hellaciously overrated “closer” tag only bring so much in trade. Eventually, RamRam’s value was going to hit a ceiling no matter how talented he was, unless the Royals were willing to try him as their closer. And since Moore has proven unwilling to move Soria from that role, it puts a significant limitation on RamRam’s trade value. Basically, I don’t think RamRam’s trade value would have skyrocketed like the value of Microsoft’s stock because of his role as a non-closer relief pitcher.
Lucky?
That’s just silly. He didn’t get lucky. He’s good at finding good pitchers. Of course he’s not 100%; nobody is. Moore has a very good track record of success in building a bullpen from many sources: FA, trade, Rule 5, waiver wire, minor league FA. In short, Moore knows what he’s doing with pitchers; hitters, not so much. So there is very good reason to believe he will again build a good bullpen.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 20, 2008 8:03 AM EST up reply actions
Mildly Positive
Eliminates at least a couple of hundred appalling bats from Gator. RamRam was fine but a great candidate to collapse as well.
by BlueEyes_Austin on Nov 19, 2008 3:43 PM EST reply actions
Really good value trade
In a vacuum, I think Crisp will be more valuable in 2009 than Ramirez.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
No, but this is the positive thread
Crisp does have an awesome name. And in MLB Gameday 2005 or whatever, awesome power.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 19, 2008 11:53 PM EST up reply actions
Some number crunchers disagree with you, d_f
You disagree with Dave Cameron’s numbers? (at Fangraphs)
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 20, 2008 7:30 AM EST up reply actions
Look at it this way
We got Coco Crisp for what was originally just a waiver claim.
By that same logic we got Mike Jacobs for Benito Santiago.
that is an interesting spin on it
I will say that GMDM did a good job of buying low and selling high on RamRam. Functionally, we got Crisp + one year of excellent relief pitching in exchange for JDLR. Things could have been worse.
by DarthYoshi on Nov 19, 2008 3:50 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Yeah, I've read a couple analysts saying that the Royals did a good buy low, sell high job on Ramon Ramirez
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 19, 2008 3:55 PM EST up reply actions
time to sell high on JoGui
and yes, I know exactly what I said
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 19, 2008 11:53 PM EST up reply actions
I wrote this in the other thread
But I think its very cool we are adding another African-American player. I want the best players first and foremost, regardless of skin color, but I do like the idea of our franchise, which sits in what was the center of the universe for the Negro Leagues, having a significant African-American presence on the ballclub.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Nov 19, 2008 3:57 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
+8.3
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 19, 2008 4:01 PM EST up reply actions
Our recent, prior Af-Am players, like...
…Michael Tucker, Brian McRae, and Jermaine Dye, were all pretty cool too. Who am I missing? Anyway, Crisp will be good for us. He is most definitely an improvement over Gaithright. – TL
[In 2008] Kila Ka’aihue had the best on-base percentage of any hitter in the minor leagues. - Joe Posnanski, 11/9/2008 ... Ergo, let's give him a shot at first base in KC in 2009.
It's easy to...
…forget about Emil. But how could I forget about Harvey? I wanted to much for that guy to succeed—-to be our Kirby Puckett. – TL
[In 2008] Kila Ka’aihue had the best on-base percentage of any hitter in the minor leagues. - Joe Posnanski, 11/9/2008 ... Ergo, let's give him a shot at first base in KC in 2009.
GRIMACE!!!!
He could cutoff a throw with his back like no other player in MLB.
by Sweep_the_Leg on Nov 19, 2008 5:18 PM EST up reply actions
GATHRIGHT WASN'T A STARTER!
What are you people missing here? He’s not replacing Gathright, though it does bump him off the team most likely.
Interesting, Brian McRae is ZiPS #1 comp for CoCo Crisp
yes we can!
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 19, 2008 11:54 PM EST up reply actions
I seriously considered 8.5. No joke.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 19, 2008 5:19 PM EST up reply actions
damn damn damn damn damn
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 20, 2008 11:20 AM EST up reply actions
Well, what can I say?
I was the first in line to scream for a trade like this, it makes so much sense.
If Teahen remains on the team, then we should have enough to win the division now.
Go Royals!
you think this team has improved by more than 10 wins?
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 19, 2008 4:12 PM EST up reply actions
don't forget we have a new hitting coach!
The concept of progress acts as a protective mechanism to shield us from the terrors of the future. - Collected sayings of Muad'Dib
That's only +5 wins
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 19, 2008 5:27 PM EST up reply actions
a new hitting coach who is an ex-Royal
+8.75 wins
Jacobs +1.37 wins
Coco Crisp + .88 wins
Total = 11 wins!
The concept of progress acts as a protective mechanism to shield us from the terrors of the future. - Collected sayings of Muad'Dib
You're not factoring in Grit
Jacobs Grit +.42 wins
Crisp Grit +1.58 wins
Grand Total = 13 wins!
That is, unless this means Gload is off the roster, in which case it’s a net -7.89 wins. :(
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 19, 2008 5:42 PM EST up reply actions
Jonny Gomes NOW
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 19, 2008 11:54 PM EST up reply actions
Barring a blockbuster move (like, I dunno, trading TPJ and a bag of baseballs for Ryan Braun)...
I will bet you a twelve-pack of your choice of beer that the Royals do not win the division in 2009.
Barring something like that
I’d be shocked if the Royals won 85 games, much less a good, competitive division like the AL Central.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 19, 2008 4:13 PM EST up reply actions
85 games might win the Central next year.
Go Royals!
First, that is exceptionally unlikely. Second, having multiple good teams in the division will make it that much harder to get to 85 wins. Third, the Royals are extremely unlikely to win 85 games in 2009.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 19, 2008 6:32 PM EST up reply actions
NYRoyal, only positive posts. :)
Go Royals!
Barring some trades that make sense from GMDM
I’d be willing to bet that the Royals revert to previous form as the bullpen falls apart and blows game after game for us. Dayton has gone to the well too many times to keep pulling up valuable relievers out of nothing. We can’t use Soria if we can’t get to him.
So apparently Moore's history of success is meaningless
Does that mean that his history of failure with position players means that he’s going to start acquiring good ones now too?
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 20, 2008 7:32 AM EST up reply actions
Is it safe to say that projections probably shouldn't give the "mystery bonus" for awesome bullpens now?
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 19, 2008 11:55 PM EST up reply actions
First, it isnt a “mystery bonus.” It is a statistical fact. Second, the current bullpen probably doesn’t warrant it. But I think the bullpen will look somewhat different on opening day.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 20, 2008 7:33 AM EST up reply actions
Teahan is a great...
…fourth outfielder on this team—-plus his infield capabilities. – TL
[In 2008] Kila Ka’aihue had the best on-base percentage of any hitter in the minor leagues. - Joe Posnanski, 11/9/2008 ... Ergo, let's give him a shot at first base in KC in 2009.
But at least now we...
…don’t have to trade him. We can wait for value. – TL
[In 2008] Kila Ka’aihue had the best on-base percentage of any hitter in the minor leagues. - Joe Posnanski, 11/9/2008 ... Ergo, let's give him a shot at first base in KC in 2009.
We never had to trade him
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 19, 2008 5:01 PM EST up reply actions
That is a great point...
and one of the subtle, intangible benefits of this deal. IF Dayton still wants to move Teahen (or please no) DDJ, then at least now he can do so from a better position leverage-wise. Also, if Teahen does stay, then Gload is all but gone (putting aside grit-considerations).
by Sweep_the_Leg on Nov 19, 2008 5:22 PM EST up reply actions
The positive to me is either this signals another move
or KC just added depth in CF and will eliminate Joey and Mitch. An OF 4some of DDJ, Teahen, Guillen and Crisp is better than last years foursome. Crisp would add some depth for DDJ who we know will be hit with some nagging injury during the season.
It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.
This move definitely adds CF depth which is scarce.
Maybe we trade DDJ to the Yankees for Phil Hughes now. God knows they need a CF.
I'm pretty sure
we would have to physically steal him from the ballpark if Gator was our offer.
Don't Stop Believing!
Yes, an armed gang would be required
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 19, 2008 5:20 PM EST up reply actions
How About Flipping
Crisp to the Yanks at the deadline next year?
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Nov 19, 2008 5:54 PM EST up reply actions
Maybe
We’ll have to see what their CF situation is next season. And as he’d have 1 1/2 years under contract, I’d want to get something good for him.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 19, 2008 6:02 PM EST up reply actions
Bill James said it was a steal for the Royals
Link?
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 19, 2008 5:14 PM EST up reply actions
If he did, it will make its way to the internet somehow
JoPo and/or Rany will make mention of it when they write up their analysis of this trade.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 19, 2008 5:21 PM EST up reply actions
One addendum to that
The near consensus seems to be that it is a very mildly positive trade for the Royals.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 19, 2008 5:28 PM EST up reply actions
Definitely.
That sums up my feelings exactly on this thing. I’m at my maximum level of Mild Positivity.
by Sweep_the_Leg on Nov 19, 2008 5:48 PM EST up reply actions
The problem is...
…that while this trade is mildly positive, Moore could have pursued OF options which were better than mildly positive. In short, he could likely have acquired a player who provides the same overall improvement as Crisp, for roughly the same money, with the same number of team control years, without giving up anything in trade. So while it is a mildly positive trade, there is opportunity cost there which is significant.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 19, 2008 5:53 PM EST up reply actions
Symborski isn't too impressed
but this is the positive thread - lots of people in positions of “authority” like it.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 19, 2008 11:56 PM EST up reply actions
Bill James has always been a big fan of Coco Crisp
I watched a Cleveland/Kansas City doubleheader with him when I was working on a profile story, and he raved about Coco Crisp throughout the afternoon/evening. He said he was recommending that Boston should acquire him: I was amused when that ultimately occurred.
by andrewmiller on Nov 20, 2008 8:41 AM EST up reply actions
it will be interesting to hear the Baseball Tonight gang's thoughts
I assume they will address it since it involves a (former) BoSox.
The concept of progress acts as a protective mechanism to shield us from the terrors of the future. - Collected sayings of Muad'Dib
Guys like them love Coco Crisp
And much more than he deserves.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 19, 2008 5:28 PM EST up reply actions
Their coo-coo for..
sorry
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 19, 2008 11:57 PM EST up reply actions
There was an article about the Rays around the all-star break about how their success wasn’t derived from any kind of massive change into superstar players, it was from a replacement of extremely bad, below replacement level players to around average ones (with the exception of Longoria). These moves have taken offensive black holes out of the lineup and replaced them with players that will probably do no worse than average and are positive to the club as long as replacements are found for nunez and ramirez.
Another key to their overall improvement was improving their defense
There seems to be a lot of disagreement about how good of a defenseive CFer Crisp is. If he’s a great defensive CFer, then this trade looks a lot better. If he’s average for his position, it looks a lot worse.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 19, 2008 5:30 PM EST up reply actions
OOOOOOO BBABABABABY
1. Furcal
2. Dejesus
3. Aviles
4. Guillen
5. Jacobs
6. Butler
7. Gordon
8. Crisp
9. Olivo
ugh.
On a more realistic note
1. Crisp
2. Dejesus
3. Aviles
4. Guillen
5. Jacobs
6. Butler
7. Gordon
8. Olivo
9. Callaspo
ugh.
Jesus H. Christ, I hope Hillman doesn't leadoff Crisp
But I’m almost certain he will, at least for the first couple months of the season. :(
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 19, 2008 5:43 PM EST up reply actions
I don't understand why so many people assume DDJ shouldn't leadoff.
1. DeJesus
2. Aviles
3. Gordon
4. Guillen
5. Jacobs
6. Butler
7. Crisp
8. Olivo
9. Callaspo
I could see switching Crisp and Callaspo, but I just want to see the 5 or so times this year that Butler will be on base and Crisp hits a 2B or 3B. Can he catch Billy?
by Sweep_the_Leg on Nov 19, 2008 5:57 PM EST up reply actions
That's better
I assume one reason some people don’t want DDJ leading off is that he’s such a good hitter overall that he’s better suited for second or third in the lineup. I don’t know if that’s true, but its not very wrong. I just know we shouldn’t have a low OBP guy hitting leadoff, even if he’s the fastest human being on the planet.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 19, 2008 6:03 PM EST up reply actions
Its because he was so good with RISP.
Not sure that that stat is very repeatable though.
Go Royals!
and also because
he makes a lot of stupid base running mistakes.
However, I want to keep DDJ much more than I do Teabag. Trade him.
For the Royals
It’s not that low. Gordon, Dejesus and Aviles were better, but Aviles will need to continue having an all world batting average to stay better, and I want guys on base in front of Dejesus and Gordon to be driven in. This is a good trade-buying low selling high, moving Dejesus to left, getting rid of gathright and gload, if we keep Teahen he is 4th OF and backup 3B. (As well as good PH)
I still like sweeps lineup better-Hitting Butler higher than Gordon is silly, and I for one will take DDJ’s OBP at the top. It also has a nice LRLR formation, but I would change the bottom a little:
6. Crisp
7. Butler
8. Callaspo
9. Olivo
More fastballs for the Fatkid, and I like to have the speed in front of the lower lineup guys. Callaspo hitting 8th between Butler and Olivo puts a little contact switch hitter in between the two right handed hackers.
Callaspo should be leading off
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 20, 2008 7:34 AM EST up reply actions
I don't see why people assume that Guillen is better than teahen, either
but then again, I believe in crazy stuff like evolution and a heliocentric solar system, so take everything I say with a grain of salt.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 19, 2008 11:58 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I don't think
Guillen is better than Teahen-I wrote a rebuttal in another post that Teahen is clearly the better player- but I don’t believe the Royals would start him with the current OF. If he stayed, he would get alot of AB’s due to injury factor of Guillen and Crisp.
There Is No
Cereal named Covelli.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Nov 19, 2008 5:58 PM EST up reply actions
But there should be
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 19, 2008 6:03 PM EST up reply actions
What does this do for the BP?
Can Carlos Rosa be given a shot to work out of the pen now if healthy?
It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.
I'm sure he'll be healthy by spring training, and probably sooner
So I think it is likely he’ll be in the Royals pen on opening day. And I think there will be other acquisitions for the bullpen too. Right now, I think the following players are likely for the bullpen:
Soria
Mahay
Tejeda
Bale (arbitration)
Peralta (arbitration)
Rosa
Gobble is a maybe for arbitration, but I wouldn’t do it.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 19, 2008 7:17 PM EST up reply actions
Omaha
He was signed this year for the same reason he was signed last offseason: rotation depth. He’ll wait in Omaha until he is needed.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 20, 2008 10:11 AM EST up reply actions
He did go 10 for 24 in the playoffs this year
with 5 walks against 3 K’s. Not a bad performance.
I'm about to change my username to DannyDuffyfan
by jackie ballgame on Nov 19, 2008 7:21 PM EST reply actions
Alright guys
I just spied on the Negative Thread and it was scary….we are obviously winning because we have more comments but they are furious over there….RR has problems and Royals Nation will soon be divided, it’s Civil War!!!
by I need more Esteban on Nov 19, 2008 8:31 PM EST reply actions
who says it will be civil?
let those nattering nabobs of negativism bring it on
The concept of progress acts as a protective mechanism to shield us from the terrors of the future. - Collected sayings of Muad'Dib
RP opening
I think the unspoken, sneaky bright side to this trade is that it opens a RP spot for TPJ!!
by kabrink on Nov 19, 2008 9:56 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
The positive thread comments outnumber the negative thread comments by 2-to-1!
Scientifically, this means the trade was 67% successful! Huzzah!
by raefzilla on Nov 19, 2008 10:15 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Does nobody here realize that Crisp and Jacobs are the type of players that are traded at deadlines?
The all-or-nothing home-run hitter? The speedy outfielder?
This is clearly a set-up. Moore is just making his ho look good before he cuts her loose.
GREINKE HO!!!!!
Unfortuneatley
the main guy who thinks those two are worth trading for already has them…
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 20, 2008 12:36 AM EST up reply actions
- Royals have excellent ’08 draft
- Royals ‘trade’ for ’09
- Royals start sucking
- Royals flip Jacobs for a prospect
- Flip Crisp for a prospect
- Flip Grienke for more prospects
- Royals have best farm system in baseball next off-season
- Royals win World Series in 2012 and 2014
Moore is a genius.
GREINKE HO!!!!!
I like this thread a lot more than the main/1st one
I don’t understand being so negative about a trade that’s not going to blow up. It cannot possibly be as bad as that other Reliever-for-Speedy OFer trade (Howell for Gathright) because Crisp has already proven, through real Major League experience in a very good division, that he is not going to be a Joey Gathright Part II.
I don’t want to toot my own horn, but I have a paper due tomorrow – haven’t started it – and I don’t want to re-type too much, so if you want, you can read more of my musings on my blog.
Porcus woke me up today by texting me about this trade, and I haven’t stopped discussing it in like a million places. I’m glad to have this positive thread. And now I really do need to quit Coco and write my damn paper!
Because Crisp
is probably going to replace a better player in the lineup — probably Teahen, or maybe DDJ gets traded, and mkaes more money than either of them. He’s 0.5 -1 win worse than TEahen, and 1 to 1.5 wins worse than DDJ.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 20, 2008 1:10 AM EST up reply actions
OK, I get that. I do...
But people are just SO angry, and it’s Day 1. I’ve been thinking more along the lines of JoePo in his latest column – we really don’t know what this means for the team yet, until we see what GMDM does next.
I just try to shy away from vitrol, I guess. I’ll be more on the negative side if DDJ gets dealt in the wake of this trade, but I’m almost certain he won’t – I think he’ll just be moved to left which is a better position for him anyway. I love Mark Teahen but if the Cubs think he’s valuable enough to trade for, we’ll be that much the better – and that part could not happen if we didn’t start by getting Crisp today.
Well, OK, we'll see
I mean, there is some vitriol, because, you know, it’s sports, which is otherwise totally rational.
I think there are good reasons to complain about the trade, though. It depends what happens with the Cubs. But right now, Teahen is the second best outfielder on the roster. #s 3 and 4 are both DMGM acquisitions who cost considerably more. So I’’m not ready to celebrate him coming out on top of a trade with the Cubs just yet.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 20, 2008 1:38 AM EST up reply actions
so how much faith do we have
that dayton is playing the fools by trading for jacobs and crisp with intent to flip them later because other gm’s will overvalue counting stats or that kind of crap and he isn’t the fool getting played by the other gm?
Accidentally not thedude925 anymore. I do hate this new name.
Christina Kahrl at BP: "I love this deal for the Royals"
I suppose I’ll have my charter membership in the Rob Deer Fan Club revoked, because while Coco Crisp is anything but a Three True Outcomes player, so be it, I love this deal for the Royals. This latest Dayton Moore deal’s an inspired move for a couple of reasons, not least because the price tag was pretty cheap. As nice as Ramirez was last season, consider the daisy chain of Moore’s moves here. In one of his first moves back in July of 2006, he swapped aging infielder Tony Graffanino to the Brewers for control-handicapped lefty Jorge de la Rosa. Last March, he flipped de la Rosa to the Rockies for Ramirez. He then turned Ramirez’s breakthrough year—one that looks a lot like it was as much the product of how Trey Hillman used him as it was from Ramirez’s gifts—into Crisp. That’s two years of a starting center fielder and a year of quality relief work for a problematic lefty and one of Allard Baird’s recycled playthings. Page Candace Bushnell, because that, my friends, is trading up.
Even more impressively than dealing for Mike Jacobs a few weeks back, the trade also demonstrates a Royal commitment to take on salary. However, it’s perhaps the best perfect balance of taking on salary while having an out: Crisp’s tied up at $13.75 million over the next two seasons, but 2010 is an option year for $8 million. If Crisp doesn’t earn his keep, Moore can duck that payday with a $500,000 buyout and revisit the center-field problem; if he does earn his keep, they’re set. It’s on the player to earn the payday, and I’m sure that will go over well with the Glass family.
More fundamentally, slowly but surely the Royals are starting to front something that resembles a big-league lineup. The question still remains whether it’s a good lineup—guys like Jose Guillen, Mike Jacobs, and Crisp are merely adequate hitters at their positions, after all, not good ones, and David DeJesus’ value relative to other left fielders isn’t really special, not when all left fielders put up a .276 EqA and DeJesus delivered a .285 last year, which was his age-28 season, no less. It’s worth noting, however, that the Royals are beginning to resemble a baseball team, one where you have a center fielder who can play his position and whose bat’s an asset, among other things. If Crisp delivers an OBP in the .340-.350 range, throw in some speed on the bases and Gold Glove-worthy defense in center, and people might start talking about the second coming of Willie Wilson.
It isn’t hard to add up how all of this might resemble the kind of defensive-minded adjustments that the Braves made in the winter before the ‘91 season, all to give their young pitching staff a few breaks. Certainly, an outfield alignment with DeJesus in left and Crisp in center will do fly ball-prone rotation regulars Brian Bannister, Kyle Davies, Gil Meche, and Zack Greinke all sorts of favors. (Obviously, the clunky-gloved Jacobs doesn’t really live up to a Sid Bream comparison, but work with me.) If the talk about Rafael Furcal has substance, this kind of trade is of a piece with that kind of signing.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
Cue devil_fingers outrage post :)
I think the biggest need the Royals still have at this point is a SS. If we don’t obtain one then we are completely relying on Aviles to first of all be good (no guarantee i.e. sophomore slump). Also to never get hurt or take a day off. I suppose Callaspo could slide over in a pinch but assuming TPJ is non-tendered we have no insurance policy.
Ideally, in my opinion, we could trade for a SS (or sign Furcal) move Aviles to second and have Callaspo be your new UI. This, in addition to trading for Crisp, would provide adequate and competent depth throughout the lineup. Imagine a bench of Shealy, Buck, Callaspo and Teahen. That’s pretty solid and removes all of the trash from last year (i.e. Gathright, Gload, German & Pena).
I'm fine with Aviles at SS
The hitting and the defense are both ok. I’d only replace him if the Royals could get a clear upgrade, like Furcal. And since SS really isn’t a hole on this team, I wouldn’t want the Royals to give up talent to bring in another SS.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 20, 2008 10:13 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
+1
We can afford to be patient at shortstop, to wait for a bonafied upgrade with tools and actual skills. – TL
[In 2008] Kila Ka’aihue had the best on-base percentage of any hitter in the minor leagues. - Joe Posnanski, 11/9/2008 ... Ergo, let's give him a shot at first base in KC in 2009.
Or David Eckstein
Think of the grit.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Nov 20, 2008 10:57 AM EST up reply actions
CK also disagreed with d_f about Mark Ellis
So I expect a major snarksplosion.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 20, 2008 10:14 AM EST up reply actions
Nah
I was wrong
defense doesn’t count
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 20, 2008 11:23 AM EST up reply actions
And when evaluating defense...
…all that counts is CHONE’s defensive projections and ZR? Don’t pretend that you or anyone has a good clear handle on how good of a defensive CFer Crisp is. Some people really like Crisp’s defense. Some smart baseball people (including some statheads and tools guys). Even Bill James.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 20, 2008 11:31 AM EST up reply actions
and some people don't
I even think that ZR isn’t very good, and thus qualified my quotation of Symborski elsewhere.
No, all that couints aren’t Chone’s projections, which, by the way are based on BIS and STATS stuff, so it’s not like they’re pulled out of his ass. Yeah, I’ll take that stuff (and UZR two out of the last three years has Crisp below average in CF — I’m not saying it’s definiteive) over the opinion of BIll James, who has been known to be wrong.
Christina Kahrl, however, posting (apparently, I don’t have a sub.) about Mark Ellis’ new deal without a substantive discussion of his defense (and I’m pretty sure it isn’t just CHONE and ZR that love him — UZR and Dewan’s [I know they aren’t as good as Jim Callis!] have him as one of the best over the last few years) is a Buster Olney level move. I like her writing, but that’s just embarrassing for someone who makes a living writing about baseball.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 20, 2008 11:39 AM EST up reply actions
and UZR two out of the last three years has Crisp below average in CF
With that other year showing him to be one of the very best defensive CFers in baseball. You need to remember that he’s been a part-time player in each of these Boston seasons, and I know that you know the inherent small sample size problem with a year of defensive metrics, which is doubled when we’re talking about a guy with a half season of playing time in each season. When you have such small sample sizes, you can get huge swings from year to year (as we’ve seen) and those metrics lose a great deal of reliability.
Given the lack of reliability of those metrics, particularly when we’re talking about small sample sizes, I don’t think you can necessarily just rely on them and ignore both the tools-based analysis and the opinions of statheads like James, Kahrl and Cameron.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 20, 2008 11:52 AM EST up reply actions
Agreed
I can’t even win an argument when I’ve just tried to agree with you for the most part, I guess! I suppose we’re arguing from opposite ends and I, at least, probably got a bit overheated — probably the only one, since everyone else clearly has a cool head here.
In my betters moments, I was arguing that the “Crisp is a defensive upgrade” conventional wisdom was far from totally justified given that there is plenty of negative evidence as well. I do feel pretty confident in saying that the idea that he’s an overall upgrade over DDJ is wrong (although I think everyone agrees on that), and that given recent performance, it’s hard to make an argument he’s overall better than Teahen.
So that’s all. I’m sorry if my sometimes overheated rhetoric got in the way of mutual understanding.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 20, 2008 11:56 AM EST up reply actions
I can’t even win an argument when I’ve just tried to agree with you for the most part, I guess!
With respect, you didn’t agree with me. You basically said we have enough stats to know how good or bad of a defender Crisp is, therefore opinions to the contrary are much less meaningful and valuable, regardless of the source. I like stats as much as the next guy, and I take defensive metrics seriously. But I think we need to recognize what their limitations are. Do we have all of the best advanced fielding metrics for him for 2008? And I don’t think we can trust any defensive projection system yet for reasons we discussed days ago. And then there is the sample size problem for a part-time player.
I, at least, probably got a bit overheated — probably the only one, since everyone else clearly has a cool head here.
Where is the sarcasm font when you need it.
So that’s all. I’m sorry if my sometimes overheated rhetoric got in the way of mutual understanding.
That should be my new sig line.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 20, 2008 12:04 PM EST up reply actions
Interesting note on salary
This reminds me very much of the Royals of the late 90s – taking on fairly pricey vets for nothing – Chili Davis, Dean Palmer, Jeff King, Jay Bell, Jose Offerman. That actually wasn’t a bad strategy, they just had very little in homegrown talent other than Appier to support that.
But making this and the Jacobs trade was unfathomable just five years ago. No way Baird would be allowed to make such a deal.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Nov 20, 2008 10:19 AM EST up reply actions
That's true
DM has been given the flexibility to, at least, put a competent major league team on the field. Go back and look at the Baird-era squads and you’re looking at a cast of guys who are AAA/AAAA players for the most part.
It’s easy to daydream about catching lightning in a bottle and having a crop of young uns all come up at the same time. And it even occurs sometimes—like Tampa Bay. But that’s drawing to an inside straight and what typically occurs is that guys are rushed, get injured, don’t develop at the same rate, or simply fail to achieve expectations.
by BlueEyes_Austin on Nov 20, 2008 10:31 AM EST up reply actions
In the stages of grief, I am in "acceptance"
The more I think about Coco Crisp diving around our centerfield, lowering Zack’s ERA, the more I like this trade. Our ballpark could be well suited for Crisp’s skills, and defensive outfields are the new market inefficiency. Crisp will likely hit about as well as Teahen, maybe slightly better, but with that improved defense, this is an upgrade.
I approve of this deal now…cautiously.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
The deal gets better if...
…this leads to Teahen being traded for something that improves the team, which is certainly possible.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 20, 2008 10:36 AM EST up reply actions
Like getting...
…Pie and/or Cedeno from the Cubs? – TL
[In 2008] Kila Ka’aihue had the best on-base percentage of any hitter in the minor leagues. - Joe Posnanski, 11/9/2008 ... Ergo, let's give him a shot at first base in KC in 2009.
Since the Royals acquired Crisp, there's no room for Pie and getting him doesn't really help the team much
Maybe Fontenot plus a good prospect. Or maybe going back to the Indians about Gutierrez. Or talking to other teams (the Braves have reportedly shown interest, and I’m sure other teams would like to have Teahen as well).
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 20, 2008 10:53 AM EST up reply actions
Moore doesn't appear to be entirely against trading Teahen (he called no one a liar)
From today’s KC Star:
The more likely scenario is to trade Teahen, who has already been linked by rumors to the Indians, Braves and Cubs.
"We like Mark Teahen a lot," Moore countered. "It’s obviously the natural question: Does it free up opportunity to move players? But Mark Teahen is a very valuable player to us. His salary is very attractive to other teams as well as it is to ours."
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 20, 2008 10:55 AM EST up reply actions
Greg Schaum
Keeps saying Sean Marshall is being discussed. That would be awesome, but I’m not holding my breath.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Nov 20, 2008 10:56 AM EST up reply actions
I try to ignore reports of players "being discussed"
I wouldn’t be surprised if Marshall were discussed, like this:
DM: How about Teahen for Sean Marshall?
JH: No way
DM: I’ll throw in Blake Johnson.
JH: Blake who?
DM: Blake Johnson
JH: Can we get back to talking about Ronnie Cedeno now?
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 20, 2008 11:02 AM EST up reply actions
And yet you replied to my post!!!!
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Nov 20, 2008 11:04 AM EST up reply actions
I try, but I often fail
:(
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 20, 2008 11:15 AM EST up reply actions
BTW
Is any other old or new media source mentioning Marshall and the Royals? MLBTR hasn’t mentioned it and that site will report any unfounded rumor it can get its hands on.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 20, 2008 11:16 AM EST up reply actions
No
The fewer published reports there are, the more likely DM will make a deal.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Nov 20, 2008 11:22 AM EST up reply actions
True
In terms of reported rumors, the Crisp-Ramirez trade came out of nowhere. I don’t think a single site (even MLBTR) had even sniffed a possibility of it.
by Sweep_the_Leg on Nov 20, 2008 11:30 AM EST up reply actions
Same with the Jacobs deal
There were only published reports right before it was a done deal.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Nov 20, 2008 11:48 AM EST up reply actions
+1
The Crisp-Ramirez deal caught me by surprise—-in a good way. – TL
[In 2008] Kila Ka’aihue had the best on-base percentage of any hitter in the minor leagues. - Joe Posnanski, 11/9/2008 ... Ergo, let's give him a shot at first base in KC in 2009.
Not a one that...
…I’ve seen in Chicago. Not even by a random idiot from BCB. – TL
[In 2008] Kila Ka’aihue had the best on-base percentage of any hitter in the minor leagues. - Joe Posnanski, 11/9/2008 ... Ergo, let's give him a shot at first base in KC in 2009.
If Pie spends this year in Omaha
and improves his hitting, he’s cheaper than picking up Crisp’s option in 2010. Also gives us flexibility to flip Crisp at deadline.
Chaim Mattis Keller New York City's # 1 Royals fan!
I don't think Pie has any options yet
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 20, 2008 1:25 PM EST up reply actions
Correct
The Pie-Man is out of options.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 20, 2008 1:35 PM EST up reply actions
The only option left?

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 20, 2008 2:00 PM EST up reply actions
My quick estimate of his WAR
Gotta be 5.7 or more. Defense is overrated.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 20, 2008 2:02 PM EST up reply actions
CHONE has him at -27 in CF (one of my favorite things about the projections is that they project everyone in CF, too)
but I’ll withhold judgement until I hear what Christina Kahrl has to say about his FRAA.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 20, 2008 2:19 PM EST up reply actions
A stinging indictment of CHONE's defensive projections
-27 in CF? I have a feeling he would catch about 12 balls in the air in a full season as a CFer. If he stayed healthy and in ok shape for his age, he’d be about -50. He’s basically the anti-Paulo Orlando.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 20, 2008 2:24 PM EST up reply actions
Humor
I think that’s the regression to the mean in effect.
CHONE also has Guillen at -11, wish we all wish he were capable of over a full season, and Dunn at -13 or something (although Dunn didn’t make any of the “suck” lists this year, oddly enough)
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 20, 2008 2:50 PM EST up reply actions
that's Guillen and Dunn in the corners
I think -27 might be the default lowest number for anyone in center or something, a lot of slow corner guys have it.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 20, 2008 2:51 PM EST up reply actions
Does this mean you don't buy CHONE's defensive projection of Guillen?
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 20, 2008 2:59 PM EST up reply actions
No
I use them in all the “projections” I’ve been posting. Objectively, I “buy” them because they’re an attempt at an objective distillation of BIS and STATS stuff with regression and age-adjustments. I don’t have much else to go on, going forward. Unless I want to just take isolated one or two year numbers I can find out there.
Obviously, the big corner guys numbers for center who never play there are just going through a computerized function that spits it all out. I don’t think Rally/Chone would really endorse those — it’s just that the program probably does it for all the players (guys like Crisp and DDJ) to weigh their respective corner/center defense against each other.
It’s far from perfect, but it’s better than just going by a guys reputation or my own RZR/OOZ to plays conversion.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 20, 2008 3:03 PM EST up reply actions
I'm sorry I wasn't clear
I didn’t make it clear what I was talking about.
d_f: CHONE also has Guillen at -11, wish we all wish he were capable of over a full season
NYR: Does this mean you don’t buy CHONE’s defensive projection of Guillen?
It seems like you’re saying, “CHONE predicts -11. Yeah, we wish he could do that over a full season. I don’t think so.” Is that a faulty inference on my part?
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 20, 2008 3:20 PM EST up reply actions
I wasn't clear either
I should have said “I hope he meets his projection.” I think they’re very basic, conservative projections. They’re like Marcels that way, only a bit more complex. Of course, they’re also about defense, which makes them inherently more unreliable in themselves (as everyone acknowledges) as judges of true talent and also are subject to random fluctuations.
So yeah, I buy Guillen 11 as much as I buy him being a -4.5 or whatever it was by Marcels offense next year - it’s probably better than most of “eyeballing” his stats or “watching him play every day,” but there’s a lot of room for improvement (which is the intent of Marcels anyway)
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 20, 2008 3:27 PM EST up reply actions
dang strikethrough
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 20, 2008 3:27 PM EST up reply actions
Ok
It just seemed like you were more willing to hang your hat on Crisp’s CHONE projection on defense than Guillen’s. Given that Guillen’s prediction comes from larger samples of data, it is arguably more reliable (although defensive metric projections are inherently questionable), and therefore Crisp’s is less reliable.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 20, 2008 3:39 PM EST up reply actions
I agree that Crisp's are less reliable
because of less-than-full seasons in 2006 and 2006 (although 105 and 118 games, respectively, aren’t nothing, either). That’s why he regresses to the FSR relative to how much playing time a player has. Now, the FSR is far from perfect (although it’s does have good value in a role like this), and this doesn’t totally solve the playing time problem, but it helps.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 20, 2008 3:50 PM EST up reply actions
So this means the FSR doesn't like Crisp's defense?
Regardless, I value the opinion people like James, Callis and many others who like Crisp’s defense and defensive tools than any number of fans.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 20, 2008 4:05 PM EST up reply actions
And I'll take UZR and Dewan's over all those guys
BIS and STATS still make up more of it.
But we don’t have to go around in circles here. I think Tango’s system makes up for a lot of problems, and has been complimented by major league scouts.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 20, 2008 4:07 PM EST up reply actions
And I don't know what the FSR says about crisp
I suspect that the fans like his defense, and the stats don’t
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 20, 2008 4:09 PM EST up reply actions
Now I do
they had him just below average in 2006, really liked him in 2007 and 2008.
So it wasn’t the fans who ran afoul of DMGM’s awesome defensive scouts.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 20, 2008 4:18 PM EST up reply actions
So it looks lke the problem is the small sample sizes
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 20, 2008 4:35 PM EST up reply actions
I guess. But they aren’t anything close to as small as, say, Alberto’s Callaspo’s hot-hitting in 2008, or his Jacobian defense numbers.
They’re problematic, but not discountable.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 20, 2008 4:39 PM EST up reply actions
I just looked at the picture again
doesn’t he look really young there?
I guess fat baseball players age in dog years. At least the white guys do.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 20, 2008 2:20 PM EST up reply actions
Pie doesn't need...
…another year in Omaha. He spent most of last season successfully implementing changes suggested by Piniella. Pie now needs a legit, consistent shot at the majors: one full season w/out interruptions. – TL
[In 2008] Kila Ka’aihue had the best on-base percentage of any hitter in the minor leagues. - Joe Posnanski, 11/9/2008 ... Ergo, let's give him a shot at first base in KC in 2009.
I Think Crisp is better than Teahen...
Crisp has a career line of .280/.331/.409
and last year in LIMITED playing time had .283/.344/.407
Teahen’s career line is .268/.332/.421
and last year .255/.313/.402
Bottom Line – Crisp was on pace for like 14 homers last year and teahen hit 15..
Crisp is one of the best defensive players in the game and DEFINATELY the best without a gold glove..
Crisp was plagued with injuries in boston.. unfortunate injuries though, not like hamstring after hamstring..
Crisp is faster and just as good baserunner as teahen and he can definately steal a lot more bags..
ugh.
Crisp has had the benefit of playing in some very power-friendly parks
Jacobs Field and Fenway Park. Put them in the same park and Teahen’s SLG will be considerably higher. I think Teahen is clearly a superior hitter. But Crisp is likely the better fielder, and he’s a CFer.
Crisp is one of the best defensive players in the game and DEFINATELY the best without a gold glove..
Really? I like Crisp’s defense, but I don’t like it that much. Where do you get this opinion from? I think he’s a pretty good defensive CF, but definitely not great.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 20, 2008 12:46 PM EST up reply actions
Thats funny
that you think fenway is power-friendly for a guy that hits most his homers left handed
ugh.
Umm, actually Fenway is power-friendly for left handed hitters
Thems the facts. Sometimes the facts disprove the conventional wisdom.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 20, 2008 4:36 PM EST up reply actions
It looks great to me
and isn’t “clearly unreeadable” an oxymoron?
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 20, 2008 10:57 PM EST up reply actions
Top right part says..
“This part right here is probably the deepest you can go in right field in any park.. how does this BENEFIT a lefty hitter it takes homers away”
Pesci’s pole part says “This little part right here know as Pesci’s Pole, benefits a lefty but rarely does one actually hook it right around for a 305 foot homer..”
Top part says “420!! Easy… Any day…”
Green Monster says “37 Feet High… Nuff Said”
ugh.
Looks like MS Paint and screenshots
But I’d be interested to know the true answer.
Waiting for a 90+ win season
by RoyalsFanInMarinerTown on Nov 21, 2008 6:24 PM EST up reply actions
I would direct your attention to Bill James study on how Fenway helps LH hitters
That’s an oversimplifcation of his study, but roughly accurate. Again, sometimes conventional wisdom isn’t correct.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 20, 2008 5:14 PM EST up reply actions
wasn't one of James' big insights
when he first got to Boston, that contrary to conventional wisdom, the Sox offense was always better with more left-handed hitters? Thus the acquisition of David Ortiz and Jeremy Giambi (I still think he could have been good).
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 20, 2008 5:39 PM EST up reply actions
Correct
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 20, 2008 5:53 PM EST up reply actions
I have a piece of speculation
Field dimensions are not the only thing that affects hitter-friendliness of a park or even if it is RH or LH-friendly. There are also atmospheric factor. In this case, it could be the wind. I read somewhere (no sabermetric study or anything) that the orientation of Fenway and the existence of the Green Monster leads to the wind to go out to right more often. A combination of the wind and Pesci’s Pole could help explain this.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 20, 2008 6:20 PM EST up reply actions
What Does Joe
Pesci’s pole have to do with this discussion?
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Nov 20, 2008 7:53 PM EST up reply actions
Helps lefties!
And by the way, the wind doesn’t help the ball fly over the green monsta the way it used to. The “Fenway helps righties more” thing has been dramatically overstated.
A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.
I think phil
just wanted to use the phrase “joe Pesci’s pole”
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 21, 2008 8:46 AM EST up reply actions
It's The Pesky
Pole, not Pesci.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Nov 21, 2008 9:43 AM EST up reply actions
just following your lead
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 21, 2008 10:03 AM EST up reply actions
But the Joe Pesci tie-in is perfect
So it should be the Pesci Pole. I have a feeling that more than one deep one has wrapped around Pesci’s Pole.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 21, 2008 11:26 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
outstanding
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 21, 2008 5:48 PM EST up reply actions
A Guy I
Played in a band with for several years used to work with Pesci in his pre-movie star days. It was Pesci’s act (guitar, vocals and jokes), and Frank Vincent played drums. They played the “Spaghetti Circuit” in the Northeast. I believe he would probably confirm that last comment.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Nov 21, 2008 11:12 PM EST up reply actions
As Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein noted: “Fenway Park, especially right field, took away a lot of home runs from Coco. He hits a lot of balls in the air. He hit a lot of balls to the warning track that would have been out in another park.”
ugh.
That was from the left-handed side. And when Crisp batted right-handed, there was that darn Green Monster.
“I hit some line-drive bullets from the right side that hit off the wall. That part didn’t play into the power part of my game,” Crisp said. “It was too big for me from the left side to pull, and from the right side, when I’d pull a line drive, it’d just shoot off the wall for a double. But, with all that said, I think I still did OK there.”
ugh.



















