I know he’s not as respected as Jim Callis, professional pedophile prospect hound, but I think that the Zips projection for Crisp is interesting in its own right. This is just leaving aside the Ramirez issue, which I’’ve done to death elsewhere. Love the spin of all the peope who were with me loving Ramirez as the underrated bullpen stud this year who now is expendable for, well… this.

Remember when I said Crisp was a 1.75 WAR player? That was was assumign full playing time, which is a bit of a mistake for any player, and I’ve been doing it that way, so we’ll leave it. Marcels, the conservative prediction (and not really intended to be a “real” projector, anyway) with a really low lgwOBA of 3.32, was -6.4.

Symborski ‘s Zips projection is here. Before starting, he notes that although Crisp has a good defensive reputation, in only season since 2003 he’s been in the top half of qualified CFs in Zone Rating was 2007… now, ZR isn’t great, but that’s a bit shocking. Anyway, I’ve posted about CHONE’s projections elsewhere, and for Crisp in CF it says mins 3.

But what about the offense? Will he vanquish the evil Mark Teahen? Surely the Marcels is screwed up. Minus 6.4? Too low, right? A more sophisticated system like Zips will like hiim better.

Um, no. With my lgWOBA set at .338, Crisps RV/700 is -11.7. Is the league average too high? I lowered it to Marcel’s .332 lgWOBA.. That will fix it, right? Um, no. Hes still 8 runs below that crappy league average.

ZiPS has him hitting .267/327/.380 in 2009. Awesome. Didn’t I hear that Dayton said he would lead off. That sounds about right.

Here’s my favorite part, given the discussion elsewhere:

Top Comps: Brian McRae (I swear!), Randy Winn

Here’s my second favorite part — the “Oddsinator.” I’ll let the gentle reader decipher what this means ZiPS says Crisp’s 2009 most likely outcome is:

STAR 9
AVG 48
REP LV 92

[Cue the “I’m waiting for PECOTA” posts. We all are.]

Here, repeating what I’ve done earlier for Crisp and the other Royals OFs, is using the Zips projection with the generously low league average with CHONE’s defensive projections. I’ll leave out arms to be kind. Off/Deff numbers are runs, converted to wins, then with positional adjustment and Al replacement level. “Total” is Wins Above Replacement (WAR).

Crisp as CF

Offense -8.00
Defense -3.00
Wins -1.05
Position 0.25
Replace 2.50
Total 1.70 WAR

Crisp as LF

Offense -8.00
Defense 5.00
Wins -0.29
Position -0.75
Replace 2.50
Total 1.46 WAR

Just to have it all in one place, here are the other OFs currently on the roster. If you don’t like it, well, too bad. These aren’t my projections, I just compiled them. I have to use Marecls for these other guys.

DDJ in CF:

Offense 2.60
Defense 3.00
Wins 0.53
Position 0.25
Replace 2.50
Total 3.28 WAR

DDJ corner:

Offense 2.60
Defense 9.00
Wins 1.10
Position -0.75
Replace 2.50
Total 2.85 WAR

Mark Teahen (corner)
Offense 0.90
Defense 4.00
Wins 0.47
Position -0.75
Replace 2.50
Total 2.22 WAR

JoGui

Offense -4.90
Defense -11.00
Wins -1.51
Position 0.25
Replace 2.50
Total 1.24 WAR

Um, yeah… at least Crisp still doesn’t project as the worst OF on the team. Relatively speaking, do people still want to bitch about Teahenn’s arb figure? I know people are sick of him, but the numbers are what they are… Teahen so far projects as about a league average player, and Crisp is a ways off. Guillen…

Actually, I’m not totally down on this. But keep in mind that this only improves the team (as currently assembled — if Teahen brings back a guy who can improve another spot, then it’s different) if Teahen still plays, which clearly isn’t the plan. The odd man out, even ignoring salaries, should but JoGui, aka Dayton’s Folly. But we know it won’t be. But hey, he was better than Emil Brown in 2007! (too bad he wasn’t in 2005, 2006, or, for Royals fans 2008).

Again, I’m talking in abstraction from Ramirez. Maybe he’s worth it. I dunno. We’ll see. It’s hard to measure relievers. if Ramirez is a fungible reliever, than just about anyone in the league other that Rivera, Papelbon, and Soria. Maybe Nathan (another guy Ramirez outpitched this year).

And who knows what else is out there. Maybe this was the only option. Ryan Langerhans (who passed unclaimed through waivers a few weeks back) projects2-4 runs worse with the bat than Crisp, but 12 runs better than him of in center (6 runs bettter than DDJ). And he would cost little or no talent and make a league-minimum salary. I bet Endy Chavez (the defense-junkies dream) could have been had for much less (although he can’t hit, he’s a stud defender).

Here’s Symborski’s take, which I understand, but is frustrating because he rightly assumes that Gullen is unmovable:

The Royals lose this trade unless they get something substantial in trade for Teahen or DeJesus. Crisp simply downgrades the team wherever he plays full-time, so the Royals need something worth Ramirez, the opportunity cost of Teahen or DeJesus, and compensation for the significant downgrade of actually playing Crisp.

“significant downgrade” says it all…

I hope he’s wrong, though. I love being wrong about stuff like this.