Keith Law's Take on Crisp Trade

That said, they're getting a good player in exchange for a relief arm who has probably already had his career year in the big leagues, and Crisp's salary isn't out of line with his actual production when we consider his defensive value. He'll probably be the best defensive player in the Royals' everyday lineup, and there's some value in having a few good defenders out there when you're running as many young pitchers out there as the Royals will be in 2009. If they manage to trade Teahen and keep DeJesus, they'll be a better club offensively and defensively as a result of this deal, and with Ramirez unlikely to repeat his 2008 performance anyway, their pen isn't likely to miss his innings as much as you might think. It's a good exchange of value, but not quite the offensive prescription that the Royals need, and eventually they're going to run out of decent right-handed relievers to deal.

11 months ago djk royal 38 comments 1 recs |

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I guess I sound much more negative

But, I pretty much agree with this:

“It’s a good exchange of value, but not quite the offensive prescription that the Royals need, and eventually they’re going to run out of decent right-handed relievers to deal.”

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Nov 19, 2008 3:39 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I think the Royals end of the trade depends mostly on how good Crisp's defense is

There seems to be quite a bit of disagreement on how good or bad he is (among both humans and the various metrics). Law thinks he’s a good defensive CFer. Some think he’s below average.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 19, 2008 3:52 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

You nailed it, NY

I think it is apparent that Moore believes this to be a significant upgrade in the outfield defense.

One could argue that he has concluded that the cost of acquiring power is beyond the means of the KC budget, so pitching and defense is an alternative method to win. A run saved is a run earned.

Now exactly how good his defense is….. who knows?

Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!

by loyal2sdad on Nov 19, 2008 4:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

If your theory about Moore is correct (and it may well be)

I wonder what he’ll do about improving the pitching. I don’t expect anything huge, but he could do something. If he’s really looking to maximize pitching and defense, he could theoretically trade DDJ for good, young SP.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 19, 2008 4:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

We have enough...

…young pitching, so a trade of DDJ would have to give us proven pitching. But I agree that trading for better pitching is probably the best bet.

[In 2008] Kila Ka’aihue had the best on-base percentage of any hitter in the minor leagues. - Joe Posnanski, 11/9/2008 ... Ergo, let's give him a shot at first base in KC in 2009.

by timlacy on Nov 19, 2008 4:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'll tell you why you want young pitching

Yes, you want a pitcher who has pitched well in the majors. You don’t just trade DeJesus for a prospect. But you want young, because young means inexpensive and multiple years of team control. And you need those multiple years because it is going to be multiple years before the Royals are in contention. A “proven” pitcher is often at or past his peak (and therefore will definitely be past his peak when the Royals are eventually in contention) and have bigger salaries.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 19, 2008 5:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

"it is going to be multiple years before the Royals are in contention"

You sure?

What if the Royals flip Teahen for Fontenot and a middle reliever? All of a sudden, our biggest holes are Guillen and Bannister….that’s not so bad.

by kcdc1 on Nov 19, 2008 5:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You sure?

First, no I’m not sure. I just think it is very likely. Second, “multiple” could mean two, but probably means three.

What if the Royals flip Teahen for Fontenot and a middle reliever? All of a sudden, our biggest holes are Guillen and Bannister….that’s not so bad.

Just because Guillen and Bannister are the biggest holes (and I’d disagree about that) doesn’t mean they are the only holes, or that the positions that aren’t “holes” have sufficient talent for the Royals to contend.

Right now, going into 2009 (with reasonable projections for the current group), the rotation is above average, but not better than above average. The bullpen is ok (I think when all is said and done, Moore will make it above average or legitimately good). The hitting and defense is, overall, poor. So above average starting pitching, a good bullpen and poor defense and hitting does not add up to a contending team. Flip Teahen for Fontenot and a middle reliever and you’re not much improved. Even if Fontenot has a very good season, you’re still not particularly close to contention.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 19, 2008 5:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

With the holes filled

They’re just a Gordon/Butler breakout away from contention. It’s unlikely that they both take big steps forward next year, but I’m not ruling it out.

Let’s assume Teahen for Fontenot and a middle reliver happens. Say there’s a 25% chance that they do break out in 2009. Before the trades, it was a 25% chance at 80-85 wins….now we’re looking at a 25% chance at 83-88 wins and an outside chance at a playoff spot.

I don’t think we have to work under the assumption that 2009 is already a lost cause.

by kcdc1 on Nov 19, 2008 5:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That depends on what "breakout" means for Butler and Gordon

First, 85 or fewer wins is not in contention in this division. That almost never gets you into the playoffs, and in this division, with multiple good teams, it’s a near impossibility. Second, what kind of breakout are we talking about?
.300/.400/.500? That kind of breakout for both of them? I still don’t know if both of them hitting like that gets the Royals to the 88 or more wins it will take to get the Royals into the playoffs. I think we’d also have to see significant steps forward from Hochevar and Guillen (beyond what their projections have them at).

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 19, 2008 6:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I was thinking it would take less than .300/.400/.500

But if we got that from both Butler and Gordon, the Royals would have one of the best 3-4 hitting combo, one of the best 1-2 pitching combos with Greinke and Meche, and one of the best closers in Soria in all of the majors. Guillen and Jacobs would have to bring a whole lot of suck to the table for the Royals to win less than 90.

by kcdc1 on Nov 19, 2008 7:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Please someone explain to me

why Fontenot is looked at to be so good?

He’s a 2nd baseman, he’s not Chase Utley, getting him would not make much of a difference in wins.

by I need more Esteban on Nov 19, 2008 8:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm sort of with you on that

I don’t get why we should give up Teahen for Fontenot straight up. Fontenot is 28 and has yet to play a full MLB season. That says a lot.

by DarthYoshi on Nov 19, 2008 8:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not sure how good he is

there’s a lot of disagreement.

The other issue is how good Callaspo is — there are signs he could be good. But the truth that other than the second half of last year, he’s never really hit that well in the majors. His defense also graded horribly — about minus 8 runs in limited time. Small sample size warnings apply on all that stuff, and in the minors he was a good contact/OBP guy. But for my perspective, he has on outside shot of being a good stopgap 2B with adequate defense and little power or speed, it’s as least as likely he’ll end up being the new Esteban German — which is cool, but not the future at second base, either.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 19, 2008 10:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

2B defense (particularly range) will be especially important in 2009...

if Jacobs ends up spending a significant amount of time at 1B, and with Guillen in RF. Whether it’s Callaspo or Fontenot (or Aviles if a SS is acquired), the Royals’ 2B is going to have to cover a lot of ground in the infield and in short right.

by Sweep_the_Leg on Nov 20, 2008 12:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

DDJ Is At

His peak as a player and in value. We’d be able to get more for him than Teahen, and we’ll never get more for him than we can now. A proven starting pitcher or MIFer would be a fair trade. That would leave us with an OF of Guillen LF, Crisp CF, and Teahen RF. Hoagie’s limited range and cannon arm make him an acceptable LF, and Crisp and Teahen give us + defense in the other 2 spots.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Nov 19, 2008 5:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

"proven" is fine, as long as this pitcher is fairly inexpensive

Because $$$ affects trade value. And in addition to all of his other pluses, DeJesus is inexpensive for multiple years of team control. the player(s) we get back would need to be similarly inexpensive, unless he/they are better than DeJesus.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 19, 2008 5:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Let's pretend Gordon and Butler both break out

and…(2) Aviles doesn’t regress, (3) Jacobs/Shealy are somewhat productive, (4) DDJ has a solid season, (5) we trade for Fontenot and he performs extremely well. (6) I win the lottery, (7) my wife never yells at me again, (8) I stop procrastinating…

DDJ (.300/.360/.420)
Aviles (who knows? .300?/.340?/.440?)
Gordon (.285/.360/.500+)
Guillen (.250/.300/.490)
Jacobs/Shealy (.260/.320/.500+)
Butler (.290/.350/.500)
Fontenot (.300/.350/.440)
Crisp (.290/.330/.400)
Olivo/Buck (.240/.300/.415)

All of the above will happen because of Seizer of course.

I'm about to change my username to DannyDuffyfan

by jackie ballgame on Nov 19, 2008 7:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Those numbers aren't that crazy

Would they put the Royals in contention?

by kcdc1 on Nov 19, 2008 7:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

IMO, no

unless it is coupled with a very good season from Hochevar and the bullpen is rebuilt to be just as good as 2007/8 (and the 4/5 spots in the rotation don’t suck).

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 19, 2008 10:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

What about instead of huge improvement from Hoch

we see Davies continue to do well, as at the end of the year last year? Not saying that’s a sure thing, but he might have turned it on and be a #3 instead of a #5 starter.

by Bornin85 on Nov 20, 2008 12:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Davies

Davies pitched at the level of a #3 starter last year, when looking at the totality of his starts. I think I showed this pretty well in a fanpost I did about a month ago ("How good is a #1, #2, etc…). So he’s going to have to continue to pitch well and do so without the significant batted ball luck he had last year. So Davies would have to take a big step forward (like pitching like he did in his last 3 starts, but over 30 starts) in addition to the above list of player performances to get the Royals into contention.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 20, 2008 12:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Good points

I agree…contention next year, with the current roster, would seem to me to be like 2003.

by Bornin85 on Nov 20, 2008 12:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

why is guillen going down to .250 ??

his career avg is .273 and he played last year with injurys or whatever all year (or so we are lead to believe)

Why you would put him all the way down to .250

ugh.

by focs on Nov 19, 2008 7:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah

and a .50 isolated paitence also seems high…

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 19, 2008 11:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

considering his ISO patience is EXACTLY .50...

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Nov 19, 2008 11:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

for his career

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Nov 19, 2008 11:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

that's right

I was focusing too much on this last year.

.280/.330/.500 fo sho’

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 19, 2008 11:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Think he's going to repeat his 2008 numbers in 2009?

(or hit worse than that?) I’d wager not.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 20, 2008 7:46 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I dunno

I wouldn’t think so. Maybe a bit better. On the other hand, overall, (and I’ll post a relelvant FanShot with a bit on Guillen in it later today), two out of the last three years he’s been below replacement level, and in 2007 he was decidedly below average (even with his excellent hitting that year). PrOPS (for good or bad) pegs him as around a .775 OPS guy on average from 2006-2008, and he’s a year older. But .775 would be a definite improvement.

Teahen and Crisp are still better players, overall, though.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 20, 2008 11:17 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Another way to look at it

Would you consider an improvement of defense an improvement in the pitching staff?
I think Crisp’s defense is good and DeJesus in LF is pretty good.
Guys like Davies, Bannister, and even Greinke can improve even if it is SLIGHTLY because of the OF defense.
It might lead to getting out of jams and all that fun stuff. I mean we’re the team that’s used to having fly balls just drop in the 9th inning with the lead, causing us to lose.

by Royal from Queens on Nov 19, 2008 8:09 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Alright, I'll give Guillen .290

But his OBP still doesn’t top .310. Personally, I think if you have 4 guys slugging around .500 you’re going to score some runs. Looks like we’ve got a fair shot at having 3 of four corner spots slug .500, when was the last time we could say that?

I'm about to change my username to DannyDuffyfan

by jackie ballgame on Nov 19, 2008 10:54 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Hey, watch it

he and Jacobs could both OBP .320. Look out walks record!

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 19, 2008 11:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Broken record alert

(understatement alert)

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 20, 2008 7:46 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Sorry

It’s like all those media people who keep ripping on the President — we get it, he sucked. Why can’t they just be positive and patriotic for a change?

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 20, 2008 11:18 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Why can’t they just be positive and patriotic for a change?

I’m not trying to turn this political but…. really? lol.

I didn’t know criticizing made you unpatriotic.
Keep up with the Guillen bashing! It won’t make you less of a Royals fan! In fact it probably makes you more of a Royals fan because you care about the teams production!

by Royal from Queens on Nov 20, 2008 7:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs