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Around SBN: Are The Orioles Bad Or Unlucky With Their Young Pitching?

Royals 2009 Payroll (including projections)

After the Jacobs and Crisp trades, I thought it would be instructive to see where the payroll stands.  So, below you'll see the Royals current payroll.  I have included arbitration and pre-arbitration estimates.  I included arbitration numbers for just about all eligible players, except for Gobble and Gathright, as I think they either will be non-tendered or traded before opening day.

Before you jump to the numbers, I want to mention this from today's KC Star:

Even with a projected payroll pushing a club-record $70 million, the Royals, apparently, aren’t yet tapped out.

"There’s flexibility for us to do some other things," Moore said. "We have the opportunity to improve our payroll maybe 20-25 percent over last year."

Moore previously cited $70 million as a likely ceiling, which would represent roughly a 20 percent increase over last year’s $58.2 million payroll on opening day. A 25 percent hike boosts the total to about $72.7 million.

First, that $58.2M 2008 payroll number is, to put it succinctly, bullshit.  That is a weak, lazy and very soft job of journalism.  That was the payroll of the 25 men who happened to be on the MLB roster on opening day.  It was not the Royals actual 2008 major league payroll (total of all outlayed major league contract expenditures), nor even what it was projected to be back on opening day.  That number doesn't include Berroa's $5.25M salary as well as some others.

When all was said and done, the Royals 2008 MLB payroll was actually about $67M.  So when Moore says that he can improve payroll by 20-25 percent, I think that means that the payroll budget is potentially $80-84M.  Or that could just be fan-placating rhetoric on Moore's part.  But Moore certainly knows what the real major payroll was.  Currently, the Royals payroll projects at about $71M.

Royals_payroll_plus_-_2009_11-20_medium

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Wow, that is geektastic

And I assume by “my bedroom” you mean “my mom’s basement.”

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by Scott McKinney on Nov 20, 2008 1:57 PM EST up reply actions  

I assume Mrs. RR is a Russian bride?

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by Matt Klaassen on Nov 20, 2008 2:02 PM EST up reply actions  

everything seems pretty reasonable

you might want to distinguish between projected arb numbers and locked-in contracts like YY and gload

by ZeppelinDZ on Nov 20, 2008 2:03 PM EST reply actions  

The arb and pre-arb estimates are in italics

But it is actually kind of difficult to tell what is in italics and what is not. In the next version of this that I do, I’ll make it more clear somehow.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by Scott McKinney on Nov 20, 2008 2:08 PM EST up reply actions  

The best part is

This chart no longer reads “Angel Berroa 4.75”

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Nov 20, 2008 2:15 PM EST reply actions  

shouldn't that be "Berroa 4:20"

yuk yuk yuk

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by Matt Klaassen on Nov 20, 2008 2:21 PM EST up reply actions  

You're back in the groove

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by Scott McKinney on Nov 20, 2008 2:22 PM EST up reply actions  

The worst part is...

it still says “Tony Pena, Jr. 0.42”

Or, really, “Tony Pena, Jr. [anything]”

by Sweep_the_Leg on Nov 20, 2008 4:28 PM EST up reply actions  

I dunno

“Jose Guillen 12” is pretty damn depressing.

by DarthYoshi on Nov 20, 2008 9:08 PM EST up reply actions  

Worst Is Worst

Strong competition, unfortunately.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Nov 21, 2008 12:26 AM EST up reply actions  

So

According to GMDM we still have 10 Mil to spend this year

ugh.

by focs on Nov 20, 2008 2:51 PM EST reply actions  

Something like that...maybe

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by Scott McKinney on Nov 20, 2008 2:58 PM EST up reply actions  

Several million would probably have to be set aside

for the waiver pickups and callups after guys go on the DL.

by Top Ramen on Nov 20, 2008 3:01 PM EST up reply actions  

It probably wouldn’t amount to several million, but it would be something. But if we’re doing a comparison to the 2008 payroll, my above $67M figure doesn’t include all or even most of the guys who came up and got prorated portions of league minimum (like H. Ramirez, Maier and many others). So I think $67M is a fair baseline to use for a 2009 comparison, with the 2009 payroll not taking into account those callups, etc. who end up getting less than league minimum.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by Scott McKinney on Nov 20, 2008 3:14 PM EST up reply actions  

Yep, Gordon for 1 more year

Butler has two, but that might go up if he ends up spending a significant amount of time in Omaha this coming season.

by Top Ramen on Nov 21, 2008 10:58 AM EST up reply actions  

Hochevar's salary

do we actually know what it is? it seems I read somewhere that its undisclosed or possibly larger thanks to his contract…

by Freneau on Nov 21, 2008 11:08 AM EST reply actions  

No, we don't know

That’s why it is in italics. He’s still getting paid off of his original major league contract that he signed after the draft (4 yrs/$5.3M). They didn’t release the details, but it did come out that he made $1.2M in 2008. So I’m guessing it is roughly the same for 2009.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by Scott McKinney on Nov 21, 2008 11:25 AM EST up reply actions  

Oh

I just thought you really meant his salary

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by Matt Klaassen on Nov 21, 2008 5:43 PM EST up reply actions  

That would have been 1.2! or perhaps even 1.2!

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by Scott McKinney on Nov 21, 2008 6:02 PM EST up reply actions  

$70 mil seems like a lot for a team that should be rebuilding.

Okay, so Crisp and Jacobs are on board.. $70 mil. payroll .. now what? When does the rebuild begin?

by RATW on Nov 21, 2008 6:02 PM EST reply actions  

When does it begin?

They’ve been rebuilding for years. Recently they’ve gone from 100 losses to 69 wins to 75 wins. It’s a rebuilding process that is actually working, albeit slowly (not everyone can be the Rays). Now Moore is trying to get the Royals up into the low-80’s so then can hopefully make the jump into contention in 2010. Or to put it more succinctly, there are stages of rebuilding.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by Scott McKinney on Nov 21, 2008 6:04 PM EST up reply actions  

I guess I don't see the long-term plan.

I can’t see how the recent pickups do anything to help make the jump from 75 wins on a $60 mil. (now $70M) payroll to playoff contenders two or three years down the road.

And is improving to 75 wins actually an indication the current plan is working? I would assume, in the right hands, one could field a 75 win team using mostly scraps and find a better use for $40 mil in payroll (sign Greinke, as one example).

This just seems like a great strategy if the goal is consistent mediocrity, similar to the Baltimore Orioles from 1998-2008. At some point, they’ve got to take some chances and acquire some moderate to high-risk, high-reward players, don’t you think?

by RATW on Nov 22, 2008 7:01 PM EST up reply actions  

I can’t see how the recent pickups do anything to help make the jump from 75 wins on a $60 mil. (now $70M) payroll to playoff contenders two or three years down the road.

These moves, plus the development of young players should get the Royals to about .500. Then perhaps next offseason you get a big free agent that pushes the Royals over the top. Or, perhaps they improve up to 80 wins in 2009, make some more minor additions next offseason, getting them up to 85 wins and then in the next offseason get the FA(s) who put them over the top.

And is improving to 75 wins actually an indication the current plan is working? I would assume, in the right hands, one could field a 75 win team using mostly scraps

No, I don’t think that’s right at all. If it were that easy to get to 75 wins, then almost every team every year would have at least 75 wins. But that isn’t the case. 1/3 of MLB teams had less than 75 wins in 2008. Getting to 75 wins is an indication that the team is improving. Is it proof that Moore’s manner of improving the team (his "plan") is going to get the Royals to the playoffs in 2 or 3 years? No. His plan may work or it may not. But it is certainly one reasonable plan among many.

This just seems like a great strategy if the goal is consistent mediocrity, similar to the Baltimore Orioles from 1998-2008. At some point, they’ve got to take some chances and acquire some moderate to high-risk, high-reward players, don’t you think?

No. Small market teams who have gotten themselves into the playoffs in recent years haven’t done so by acquiring “moderate to high-risk, high-reward players.” They have done so through good drafting, player development, some shrewd trades and FA signings. Arguably, the Royals aren’t really going to be serious contenders until they have developed enough young, cheap, in-house talent. If this is true, then the Royals probably won’t contend until Moustaks and Hosmer are in KC. But, thankfully, Moore isn’t waiting for that. But, at the same time, he’s not mortgaging the future. He’s not weighing the payroll down with big contracts which would limit payroll flexibility for the Moustakas/Hosmer/Cortes/Duffy era.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by Scott McKinney on Nov 22, 2008 7:47 PM EST up reply actions  

No, I don’t think that’s right at all. If it were that easy to get to 75 wins, then almost every team every year would have at least 75 wins

That is up for debate.

by RATW on Nov 26, 2008 11:29 AM EST up reply actions  

I think it's a bit early in the current regime to pronounce it misguided or moribund.

The state of the union was in such disarray 3 years ago that to expect a magical turnaround is unrealistic, though I certainly commiserate with the impatience. I endorse the current direction though I may question some of the intermediate moves. Let’s see how this plays out.

by Steve Hovley on Nov 22, 2008 7:49 PM EST up reply actions  

Magic?

I certainly don’t expect magic or an instant turnaround; even the Rays turnaround was three years in the making from the time their new front office took control and began a nearly total roster overhaul. But it seems to me Moore is trying to have it both ways by fielding a dimly competitive team now when they should instead fixate on the window of opportunity a couple years down the road. There is no better time than now to make those “shrewd” moves to get building blocks for the future.

by RATW on Nov 24, 2008 3:32 PM EST up reply actions  

our 5th highest paid player is

Shake Yabuta.

Just one sign of all the work that must be done.

Pecota, watch over us.

by castille on Nov 22, 2008 10:43 AM EST reply actions  

A couple things

First, that list isn’t really ordered by size of 2009 salary. After arbitration awards, Yabuta’s salary will likely be the tenth highest. Second, the fifth highest salary will likely be around $4M which means that this team isn’t overpaying many players. I think there’s only one player on that list who is going to be significantly overpaid in 2009.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by Scott McKinney on Nov 22, 2008 10:52 AM EST up reply actions  

I assume you mean overpaid in raw dollars/contribution, rather than just by percentage

i.e., Gload’s salary isn’t killer, but he was overpaid, as are any replacement-level players making anything significantly beyond the minimum.

But year, I agree that generally the payroll looks pretty efficient with a “once over” look.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by Matt Klaassen on Nov 22, 2008 11:18 AM EST up reply actions  

"but yeah..."

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by Matt Klaassen on Nov 22, 2008 11:19 AM EST up reply actions  

Yeah, as with any payroll, you can point to several players and show that their salary exceeds their performance. But for the Royals, with the exception of Guillen, the salaries in question are pretty small, or the difference between salary and performance is pretty small. In short, Gload isn’t worth $1.9M, but we’re only talking about $1.9M.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by Scott McKinney on Nov 22, 2008 11:29 AM EST up reply actions  

Gload is being paid

$950,000 per explosion this year.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Nov 22, 2008 1:44 PM EST reply actions  

That's a bargain

(at any price)

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by Scott McKinney on Nov 22, 2008 1:56 PM EST up reply actions  

Can you (or anyone else) provide us with a breakdown...

of Gload’s salary by Grit? It could be per projected individual pieces of grit (like the stuff coming off of Pigpen in the Peanuts cartoons). Or it could be in overall grit factor per games played.

by Sweep_the_Leg on Nov 25, 2008 12:43 PM EST up reply actions  

DH -2
1B -1.5
LF/RF/3B -1
CF 0
2B/SS +2
C +5

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by Matt Klaassen on Nov 26, 2008 1:54 PM EST up reply actions  

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