A Hoagy for a Meal, with a predictable side dish, an after-dinner mint, and an Ultimate Showdown
Nothing's more fun than a link to a spreadsheet!
Weeell.... On the heels of crazy posts from everywhere and every angle on the Crisp-Ramirez trade, replete with the usual overheated rhetoric, anger, objective analysis, dubious appeals to authority, and demands to pledge allegiance Sluggerrr, I decided to take a break and do some actual work.
Just kidding. Actually, I went back to a "project" I started a while back and then set aside for home brewing total player value. Other people do it better, but there is a certain joy from doing something oneself.
It all started when I realized that UZR had Emil Brown as a good defender in 2005 and 2006. You can read how I used what stats where in notes to linked spread sheet. I used UZR for the most part because I had access to those stats. It would be nice to use Dewans, but only the leaders/trailers are posted publicly. For some 2007 players and all 2008, I had to go elsewhere for stats.
This started out as a chance for me to try "total player stuff" and see how good or bad Emil Brown really was in 2005 andn 2006. In that connection, at one point I posted yesterday or the day before that Emil Brown had been better than Jose Guillen 3 of the last 4 years (2005-2008 is the time frame of this stuff), and thought it was true based on my original calculations. It turns out he was only better 2 of the last 4, though, after I included outfield arms and prorated positional adjustments and replacement levels. Still, the comparison is quite interesting... Check out those totals.
This isn't "projective" on its own and isn't meant that way, although the stats could be, of course, used as part of a projection. Keep in mind that these stats are all gathered from elsewhere and combined as objectively as I could according to principles accepted by respected analysts. OF arms aren't available from THT for 2008 yet. You can disagree with stats (like the defensive stuff), but I did the best I could with what I could find out there for free.
Also included: 2005-2008 comparisons of KCs current (as of this writing!) top 4 OFs, an enjoyable "after-dinner" mint for KC fans, and, of course, an Ultimate Showdown for entertainment.
I hope you enjoy this little spreadsheeted march through recent history half as much as I (absurdly) did.
Update: Here's what Tango says WAR/year generally indicates as far a player quality (although it's clear some GMs don't get it:
0 replacement level/out of the majors
1 bench player
2 average player (might be closer to 2.5 for Al position players)
3 above average player
4 very good player
5 great player
6 one of the best players in the league
11 months ago
devil_fingers
8 comments
1 recs |
Comments
This comparison will never get old
Good number crunching though. d_f, let’s say you could have one of them on your team for the next two years, money being equal, who do you pick and is it a tough decision?
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by NYRoyal on Nov 20, 2008 2:03 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
It's purely historical intent
It really did start out as all about Emil when I saw his UZRs from 2005 and 2006. I was going to do a long FanPost, but I still have two “fermenting” that I’m bored witha nd need to come back to. I had always thought he was an average-hitting, bad defense corner OF stopgap, but those are two good years, or one good year, and one borderlie great year. So I’m sorry that I put Guillen in there, but it’s an interesting comparison because of the way defense shifts things, as it does for Brownin 2005 and 2006, and Guillen in 2007 (JoGui’s 2005 was really, really good).
And then I expanded it to include other players and cover recent topic.
Before this season, I thought Emil/Jogui comparisons were stupid, actually (money aside). I wish they still were.
Which one would I pick to start a team money being equal? Easy… David DeJesus, of course! Then Mark Teahen, then Coco Crisp… then.. it’s tough…
Probably JoGui. From 2005-2008 Emil’s been better, but there are guys who hit almost as well who can play good defense. JoGui can play OF if the team is desparate, and the overall offensive track record is too much to ignore. He and Mike Jacobs could make pretty fearsome DH platoon at the minimum. And maybe I could trade him once he gets hot.
Plus, he brings a “certain energy” to the clubhouse, and is unlikely to blind any visitors with a pellet gun.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on Nov 20, 2008 2:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
thanks
One day I’ll redo all this stuff with custom linear weights… yeah, right
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on Nov 20, 2008 2:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
hmmm....
I guess It thought people would be more juiced by the DDJ/Jeter/Ellis comp, or the “Ultimate Showdown.”
Oh well… another cry for attention lost in wind…
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on Nov 20, 2008 4:42 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
So Jacobs was better than Gload last year huh?
I know that’s what the spreadsheet says but do you really believe that?
by djk royal on Nov 20, 2008 4:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I meant Gload better than Jacobs.
And by better I mean not quite as bad.
by djk royal on Nov 20, 2008 4:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
No, actually
because he should never have been playing defense. When evaluating “true talent,” you have to put the player in the best position to succeed. So pos + def. can never exceed the DH penalty (unadjusted for difficulty since Jacobs didn’t hit as a DH too much — the adjustment is made for when he did). In other words, over 162, def. + pos can never exceed -2.25 wins for a player.
But I was listing what they contributed to the team. The weigthts are pretty static, and maybe a bit old. But I’ve seen more “exact” (custom linear weights) evaluations that have Jacobs better than Gload. But not by much. The defense absolutely kills him. Even with a “-2.25 governor,” he’s still around replacement level.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on Nov 20, 2008 5:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs















