JoPo on Crisp

Nothing to ground-breaking here. Pos seems to like the deal.

7 months ago RoyalsRetro Comment 62 comments 0 recs |

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

I'm anxiously awaiting Rany's take

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 20, 2008 2:34 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Kahrl was really enthusiastic

and she’s pretty non-sold on Moore

i may, if i may associate myself with the pundocracy, be the most negative person out there

by royalsreview on Nov 20, 2008 3:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, Kahrl is almost always down on the Royals and Moore's moves

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 20, 2008 3:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

She's definitely the most "writerly" of the BP people I've read

as opposed to the analysts proper — of course, the only “analysts proper” ( as opposed to analysis-informed writers, who are still valuable) left there full time are probably Silver and Davenport now, right? Woolner, Fox, Click, etc. are all working for teams.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 20, 2008 3:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Rany's due for a positive post about Moore

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 20, 2008 3:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Rany will be on 810

I think in the 5 oclock hour

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Nov 20, 2008 3:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

is that 5 CST?

Can I get a link?

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 20, 2008 3:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Just google 810 WHB, I think

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 20, 2008 3:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

My bad, he's on next

After the 3 o clock break.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Nov 20, 2008 3:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, but it's JoPo

I think filtering through the JoPo’s patenteded Niceness™, he’s really saying, “Hmmm, this doesn’t look so great, given that Crisp hasn’t really hit well since 2005 and doesn’t get on base, either, but I’ll wait and see how it plays out. Can’t wait to compare results on the Dayton Game with the new guys in Spring Training.”

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 20, 2008 2:53 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

No, I think JoPo disagrees with you

JoPo isn’t positive about every Royals move. If he has a reputation about spinning everything Royals as a positive, it is unearned. He completely tore Moore a new one on the Guillen signing, for instance.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 20, 2008 3:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Rany on Coco Crisp

- Coco hits well some years and not other years. But he can be counted on for outstanding defense

- Coco will get to about 15 more balls over the course of a full season than the average CFer

- Thinks Coco vs. Teahen is nearly a wash offensively, with a significant defensive upgrade

- Coco should bat ninth unless DeJesus bats third

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 20, 2008 4:12 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

“some years” = “never since 2005”

Is Rany an idiot for agreeing with me that Jacobs is worse defensively than Butler?

He’s also mildly critical fo DMGM… uh oh…

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 20, 2008 4:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

"some years" = "never since 2005"

Pretty good OBP 3 of the last 5 years. Does he hit better when he plays regularly? I don’t know. Maybe.

Is Rany an idiot for agreeing with me that Jacobs is worse defensively than Butler?

He didn’t say Jacobs is worse defensively than Butler. He said, you should go with Butler at first because he has the chance to develop to be better than Jacobs (because Butler is young and developing and Jacobs has peaked).

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 20, 2008 4:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

More Rany on Coco Crisp

Thinks the good years of Brian McRae is the best Royals comp for Coco (a better comp than W. Wilson)

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 20, 2008 4:14 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Kietzman seems to disagree with Rany on Jacobs

KK loves Jacobs, Rany seems to be much more pessimistic, saying he’s a 25 homer guy with a terrible OBA

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Nov 20, 2008 4:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

My read of what KK is saying

is that Jacobs isn’t great, but is very valuable if he’s truly a 30+ HR guy. I think that is looking at offense pretty myopically.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 20, 2008 4:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

He buys what DM is saying

That Jacobs is still getting better.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Nov 20, 2008 4:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think KK is an idiot

Or maybe just an average radio sports guy, which is about the same.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 20, 2008 4:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Try well below average.

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Nov 21, 2008 2:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

are you going by tools or performance?

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 21, 2008 8:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

both

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Nov 21, 2008 10:47 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

who cares if Gordon hits .300?

Is Rany just dumbing it down?

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 20, 2008 4:22 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Yes, he's speaking to his audience

Kietzman and average fans.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 20, 2008 4:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Is Rany aware that Teahen was a terrible defensive 3B?

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 20, 2008 4:22 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

oh no! nonchalance!

Keitzman sounds like an awesome scout — something’s missing for Gordon

I sure wish baseball wins were based on measurables,

Oh no! NOt J. D. Drew! That woudl be terrible if Gordon turned out just like him!

Who is Keitzman? A moron?

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 20, 2008 4:24 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Listening to Kietzman is painful

He should never speak on the issue of Alex Gordon again.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 20, 2008 4:25 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Every journalist I've ever read says Gordon really works hard

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 20, 2008 4:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

But he smirks!

That smirk tells you all you need to know about that arrogant prick.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 20, 2008 4:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Crisp's lwts above avg 2006-2008 above average

2006: -15.3
2007: -13.9
2008: -4.2

Terrible Teahen:

2006: 11.8
2007: -1.5
2008: -8.3

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 20, 2008 4:27 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Is that based in part on counting stats and therefore playing time, like VORP?

or is that based stricly on averages, rate stats?

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 20, 2008 4:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

both

it has to be some rate stuff, since otherwise they couldnt’ establish league avg.

Check my spreadsheet — I adjust for all that stuff.

Here’s tghe wOBA*s.

Crisp

2006: .316
2007: .314
2008: .334

Teahen

2006: .392
2007: .339
2006: .314

RV/600 (equalizes PAs)

Crisp:

2006: -17.3
2007: -14.1
2008: -2.6

Teahen:

2006: 21.9
2007: -1.2
2008: -12.2

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 20, 2008 4:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

well, I don't adjust for equal playing time

all my other RV/700-based stuff from Marcels, Zips, etc. does

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 20, 2008 4:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Then Crisp suffers from being a part-time player in 2006 and 2008

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 20, 2008 5:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

um, not in the RV/600, which is why I posted them

or in any projection that equalizes for playing time. or in the wOBAs listed above (rate stats)

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 20, 2008 5:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

So they were pretty much even

2007-2008?

by kcdc1 on Nov 20, 2008 4:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I guess, yeah, just on Woba

The playing time should be a consideration with any player, and so that doesn’t “help” Crisp as much as peopel think.

Teahen’s 2008 was bad, but Crisp’s 207 was worse (although further in the past for projection purposes).

Teahen’s 2007 was slightly better than Crisp’s 2008, probably due to park adustments or something.

2006 is still part of the picture: Crisp was a sub-replacement hitter then, while Teahen was very good.

Teahen’s also younger.

The only way to make a case for Crisp is on defense. And he probably is better. Is that enough to offset the differences i offense, age, health, and, don’t forget, money?

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 20, 2008 4:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The only way to make a case for Crisp is on defense.

But I don’t think the offensive difference is as big as you think.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 20, 2008 5:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

OK

I look forward to better projections. It’s not just “what I think.” I’m going straught off the projections I can find.

So far, the ones most favorable to Crisp have him 6 runs worse (yes, I equalized the PAs) than Teahen. If he’s an above average CFer, he’ll be better.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 20, 2008 5:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Seems like they are very similar in 2007-08 when you adjust for playing time

So yes more projections will be good to see.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 20, 2008 5:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If Keitzman wants to bitch

Birch about Guillen’s on-field “abilities,” not Gordon’s (or Guillen’s) alleged attitude.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 20, 2008 4:28 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Rany says the Royals are one bat away

One bat away from what? From as much as they could reasonably be expected to do? Certainly not one bat away from contention.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 20, 2008 4:29 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Teahen and Guillen for Pujols

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 20, 2008 4:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I dunno

The Central will be wide open this year. 85-88 wins could take it, or at least put you in contention. I don’t see a dominant team out there.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Nov 20, 2008 5:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Parity within the division

When there is parity in the division and it is parity at a low level (a bunch of mediocre teams), then you can win the division with 85-86 wins maybe (see 1985 AL Central). But when that is a parity of good teams, then one or two are likely to break out into the high 80’s or low 90’s at least. And it also makes it extra hard for mediocre teams (Royals) to even get to 85 wins.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 20, 2008 5:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think the Sox could sux next year

And the Twins could regress quite a bit

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Nov 20, 2008 5:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think 85 wins would at least keep the team in it until early to mid-September

which would be good enough to bring back a lot of fans

by Top Ramen on Nov 20, 2008 5:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Could be

But all of the people whose opinions I take seriously (like Nate Silver and a couple other analysts) so far this offseason have said that all four of those teams should have win totals in the 80’s, and that is before potential offseason improvements. While significant regression is possible, I don’t think it is very likely.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 20, 2008 5:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I disagree

The Central has no good teams and five average ones.
If you just look at the AL, they are considerably below average on average.
81 wins might win the divsion.

Go Royals!

by BabyBlues on Nov 20, 2008 6:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think the analysts, number crunches or projections agree with you

No good teams? Utterly false.

81 wins might win the divsion.

In my humble opinion, that’s just plain nuts. PECOTA will end up projecting at least two teams with wins over 85 and three more than 81. Book it. I’m taking bets if anyone thinks I’m off on that. I’ll give you 2:1 odds.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 20, 2008 6:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs