Coco's Strong Finish to '08

Many people are down on Coco and resigned to saying that basically he's ok but he better be one good defensive CF for this trade to be ok. But did anyone notice his strong finish to last year? Yeah, it was limited playing time, but who's to say he can't do something similar in '09? What say you, naysayers?

Basically, from June 08 on, Coco had this line in 274 PAs:

.301/.373/.419/.792

about 1 month ago CollininCalifornia Comment 16 comments 0 recs |

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From May - End

This line
.281/.350/.413/.763

by CollininCalifornia on Nov 20, 2008 3:20 PM EST 0 recs

I wish second-half splits had predictive value

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 20, 2008 3:23 PM EST 0 recs

at the risk of sounding like I dislike (predictive) stats...

… can anyone but me be excited about these numbers? If he bats like this, sure he can lead off (with a .350 OBP) and that OBP looks pretty good no matter where he’s placed….

Instead I guess most people just want to be a little less excited and less optimistic in case he really is a .260/.320/.400 hitter. I’ll take the hit if does fall below my optimistic outlook, but I like being excited in the mean time.

by CollininCalifornia on Nov 20, 2008 3:31 PM EST up 0 recs

No, that's great

but it’s cherry picking the good stats. All of a players past mLB performance, whether injured, played while he’s going through a divorce, whatever, are part of his future projection. Crisp doesn’t project anywhere close to .281/.350/.763. I wish he did. But 2005 (when he was a genuinely great player) was a long time ago…

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 20, 2008 3:37 PM EST up 0 recs

If we only take everyone's second-half stats last year

the numbers put up by Gordon, Butler, Shealy, Jacobs, Crisp, etc. would mean we have a near-playoff caliber team.

by Top Ramen on Nov 20, 2008 5:24 PM EST up 0 recs

I don't think second half stats are in any way more meaningful than larger samples of stats

Like a full year or multiple years. There has been at least one study done on whether second half stats have more predictive value for the coming year’s stats than an entire season of stats. In short, the study found that they do not.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 20, 2008 3:43 PM EST 0 recs

Silver, I think did one, right?

Isn’t that where is said that if second-half splits should be fiven any more weight thatn first-half, that it should be a 48/52 weighting at most? (basically nothing)

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 20, 2008 3:48 PM EST up 0 recs

so you're saying there's a chance?

2nd half stats aren’t more meaningful, but conversely, aren’t less meaningful?

by CollininCalifornia on Nov 20, 2008 3:48 PM EST up 0 recs

who said they were less meaingful?

the whole season is meaningful. His weighted three-year average is meaningful. A players second-half splits are not meaningful on their own any more than picking out his three best months out of the year and saying “if he can just maintain that over a whole year, he’ll be an All-Star” is a good analysis.

Hey, I do it all the time. But it has nothing to do with a rational projection.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 20, 2008 3:55 PM EST up 0 recs