Rany expands his thoughts on Coco-RamRam

He said some of these things on 810 yesterday. He says more on his blog. Some highlights:

In some ways, trading Ramon Ramirez for Coco Crisp is similar to trading Leo Nunez for Mike Jacobs...The difference is that Nunez for Jacobs didn’t help the Royals all that much, relative to a stand-pat move. Trading Ramirez for Crisp does.

Make no mistake: the defensive upgrade is the only reason to think this trade makes the Royals better, and it is reason enough to make the trade.

My sometimes colleague at BP, Dayn Perry, wrote a book a while back ("Winners") in which he broke down many of the championship teams of the last generation to see what they had in common. I think his most interesting point was that he found a preponderance of teams that went to the playoffs had essentially two centerfielders: one of their corner outfielders (generally the leftfielder) was a former centerfielder who still had good range at the position.

I think there’s a potential synergy in play here, between a DeJesus-Crisp outfield and a rotation that has four fly-ball pitchers in Greinke, Bannister, Meche, and Davies. Even Soria has a low G/F ratio

I think that the sum of Crisp’s offensive contributions will approximate those of the man he is replacing, likely Mark Teahen. So it’s a wash on offense, and a pickup of maybe 20 runs on defense.

So I don’t know about you, but if Moore wants to trade another reliever – a reliever he had just acquired for a failed starter eight months ago – for an everyday centerfielder, I have faith he’s going to be able to replenish the well.

The addition of Jacobs and Crisp is worth on the order of 5 wins over the course of a year, more if the Royals can turn Teahen into something with present value. Is that enough to make the Royals a contender? No. Even if Gordon or Butler has a breakout season, probably not. If they both have breakout seasons, it’s still a maybe. But if the Royals add one more bat to the lineup, the calculus changes.

This is not a risk-free trade, but for the Royals, the upside trumps the downside. I think that the Red Sox are more likely to win this trade by a little. But I think that the Royals are more likely to win this trade by a lot.

7 months ago NYRoyal Comment 31 comments 0 recs |

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

20 run improvement on defense. Nice.

by djk royal on Nov 21, 2008 8:21 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

One of the keys is that he has to stay healthy

One of the things that has hurt him in recent years is injuries. They aren’t the kind of thing that should linger into 2009, but if he’s DDJ-fragile/unlucky (or a faker like DDJ), it could hurt his range.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 21, 2008 8:43 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

This is the sort of thing...

that makes me think the Royals either HAVE to hang on to Teahen, or else get some sort of 4th OF with a decent bat in return for him (at least as part of the deal). I assume Gathright will be gone one way or the other, so Maier will be the only real 4th OF option if Teahen is dealt and the Royals don’t get another OF in exchange.

Given DDJ last year, and Crisp’s history, 4th OF could be a very important position next year.

by Sweep_the_Leg on Nov 21, 2008 11:09 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

We have a forth ourfielder other then those you mentioned, his name is Gload.

So we will upgrade at 2b with Fontenot, which will get rid Smith and/or TPJ, but make Gload get 300-400 at bats. What is your choice of poisen? I would just assume we stick with Teahen as the 4th outfielder myself.

Go Royals!

by BabyBlues on Nov 21, 2008 11:54 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I really doubt Moore/Hillman will go with Gload as the one and only backup OFer

Even with a 4-man bench, there are other choices. For instance, both German and Callaspo can play the OF, and do so better than Gload.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 21, 2008 11:57 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree.

Yet Gload will play as the 4th outfielder.

Go Royals!

by BabyBlues on Nov 21, 2008 12:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Moore and Hillman care about defense

Therefore, Gload will not play as the 4th OFer. They know how awful Gload’s OF defense is.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 21, 2008 12:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

German's OF defense is barely an improvement

…although German can at least impersonate a center fielder, albeit badly.

My guess is that both German and Gload will be given their walking papers by the time Opening Day rolls around. There is just no room on the roster for Gload, and Moore’s hankering for a middle infielder probably spells the end of German’s time here too.

by DarthYoshi on Nov 21, 2008 12:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I hope you are right about them booting Gload, but I'm not so sure

It would be ok if they non-tendered German, but I still think they can get a little something for him in trade.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 21, 2008 1:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I just don't know how Gload, Jacobs, Shealy, and Butler

can co-exist on a roster simultaneously. I don’t think Moore is Butler’s biggest fan, but I also don’t think Butler is going anywhere anytime soon, and I think Shealy’s September tear probably means he’ll be around for a little while.

If we could get a C+-level prospect or something for German, I’d say go for it. In any case, it probably won’t result in much of an impact.

by DarthYoshi on Nov 21, 2008 1:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

There's no doubt that there isn't room for all of them on a 25-man roster

While anything is possible, I wouldn’t bet much money on this prediction, I think Shealy is the odd man out. Shealy is out of options. Given his age, the number of years he had been at the level and the fact that it was the PCL, Shealy’s AAA season was no better than ok. And I don’t think Moore will put too much weight on one season at the major league level.

The question is who does he like better: Gload or Shealy. He traded for both of them, but he signed Gload to a two-year contract. Gload is making major league money for the Royals regardless. The right thing to do is think of that as a sunk cost and cast Gload aside. While Shealy has little upside, he has more than Gload. But I think Moore likes Gload too much, and I think he overestimates the value of a defensive replacement for the first base position.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 21, 2008 2:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

+1

I should add that even if he overestimates the value of first base defense, Shealy has been better than Gload defensively almost every year I can find info on, with the possible exception of 2007(the only year Gload rates as above average from what I can see) — and even there Justin Inaz has Shealy several runs better.

I’m glad that HIllman and Moore value good defense. I have doubts that Moore is very good at identifying it — at least in players who can hit.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 21, 2008 5:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Got distracted, let me finish the thought

Obviously, Crisp looks like at least around an average CF, and I would probably say better than that at this point (more elsewhere).

But I it’s sort of like what you (NYRoyal) were saying about Moore and OBP and SLG — he doesn’t get that OBP is important in all hitters, not just in certain spots in the lineup. I think with defense, he sees it as more important in some parts of the field than others, or how to weigh it against he rest of the player’s skill – -s(so he gets a “defense only” [ahem] first baseman in Gload, then gets another 1B who can’t play defense at all (Jacobs). TPJ and maybe Gathright fit in there as well.

Crisp is a good sign. I hopefully Jacobs will only DH — if he sees substantial time at first base over anyone that will be a bad sign.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 21, 2008 5:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

which is why I think Moore will take Shealy over Gload...

…even if Moore overvalues 1b defense (and I think he does), Shealy is likely the better defensive first baseman than Gload.

by DarthYoshi on Nov 21, 2008 6:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Shealy is likely the better defensive first baseman than Gload.

The defensive stats say that. The tools-based analysis of scouts, front office people and many fans (including me) say Gload is the better fielder/receiver. My point here is that Moore and his people may well be of the opinion of that Gload is the better defensive 1B, and they wouldn’t be crazy to think that. They’d be stupid to keep him because of it.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 21, 2008 6:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Gload CAN play the outfield...

and so CAN German and Callaspo. Not one of them ever made me feel even remotely comfortable whenever I knew they were back there and a ball was lofted in their general direction. The only legitimate option as of right now for a backup corner OF spot is either Teahen or Maier (CF too for him).

by Sweep_the_Leg on Nov 21, 2008 12:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think that for occasional backup duties to rest a player, any one of German, Callaspo or Gload can handle the 4th OF duties (likely there will be two guys on the 4-man bench who can play the OF). If someone goes on the DL, then someone like Maier can be called up for longer stints. A deep, quality bench is a luxury that the Royals cannot yet afford. I certainly wouldn’t keep Teahen to make sure I have a top notch bench if he can be flipped for someone like Fontenot, who would upgrade one of the starting positions on the team.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 21, 2008 12:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

We also have Gathright

And MITCH

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Nov 21, 2008 12:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Well to his credit

they were freak injuries for the most part (i.e. Hit in the hand with a pitch) so it really doesn’t look like a guy who is constantly pulling a hammy or something

Werd.

by focs on Nov 21, 2008 12:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Good thoughts

I bit of cherrypicking on both offense and defense (“at his best,” “broken finger,” but not unreasonably so.

I generally agree.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 21, 2008 8:45 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I think things like “at his best” and the “broken finger” lead him to his “the Royals are more likely to win this trade by a lot” conclusion. He was pointing out while the Royals take from this trade could be the ultra-mediocrity that Neyer describes, there is also some big upside potential.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 21, 2008 8:50 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

yeah, that's why I agree

and why the salary (considerred in isolation) is actually probably a good deal if he can play even slightly below average ball for most of the season.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 21, 2008 8:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

But it only takes us to 80 wins!

< / grumpy Rob Neyer >

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Nov 21, 2008 9:21 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

we're in the NL West now

you didn’t get the memo?

by royalsreview on Nov 21, 2008 11:15 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

We are?

I hadn’t heard. Where do we buy the playoff tickets?

by kcdc1 on Nov 21, 2008 2:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think what Rob forgets...

is that you can’t go from 75 to 90 wins in one move. Every move the Royals makes he criticizes because it only adds a couple of wins and since a couple of wins don’t make us contenders then what’s the point. The point is if you make multiple moves over multiple seasons you can slowly bridge that gap instead of instantly trading every good player for prospects to try to find “elite” players who may or may not amount to anything. At some point the fans deserve more than 90 wins or garbage and a lottery ticket. There really is an in-between.

by djk royal on Nov 21, 2008 2:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You mean...

that “in-between” that the overwhelming majority of MLB franchises have managed to maintain over the last decade (unlike the Royals). Yeah, I’m with you—I’ll definitely take that. At least it’s a start. Like you said, trying to pull a Tampa Bay in one offseason is a rare and incredible thing. And they had multiple years of top draft picks to form their core anyway. Baby steps.

by Sweep_the_Leg on Nov 21, 2008 3:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs