Value Over Replacement Defender

by kcdc1 on Nov 21, 2008 10:29 PM EST

In the process of trying to say everything that can be said about the Crisp trade, I'm afraid we've hit a problem. A big problem. Is Crisp really better than Teahen? I know we all think so, but can we twist up some numbers that will look definitive on the subject? If anyone would want to invest time into this, it would be someone here at RR.

The problem stems from three premises:

(1): A player's value is equal to a sum of his offensive and defensive contributions

(2): Teahen and Crisp are roughly equally valuable offensively--perhaps a slight edge to Teahen

(3): The best defensive stats out there (none are great) peg both Teahen and Crisp as slighly better than league average defensively at their respective positions

So if we look at just that, we're pretty much forced to say that Crisp isn't an improvement over Teahen. And we feel cantankerous. But then we remember! Crisp plays center field while Teahen plays right field! And we all know center field is a more premium defensive position!

So we rejoice, and we exclaim, "Yes, they two are even, but Crisp is More Premium!" But then we remember that we wanted a number, and "More Premium" is better suited to meats than cereals.

So now we ask, "How much is average center field defense worth? How much is average right field defense worth?" I know people have asked these questions before. Tom Tango came up with a system of positional adjustments to get at the relative values between positions. I've seen his system used by a few analysts lately, but I'm not a fan. He comes up with his values by looking at how a player's performance relative to the average changes when that player switches positions. For example, if DDJ is 5 plays below the average defense in center field, but 10 plays better than the average defense in left field, this might indicate that the average defense in center field is 15 plays better than the average defense in left field. I don't like it--who's to say DDJ isn't better suited to left? Maybe Maier doesn't call him off flyballs between them because DDJ is also a proven center fielder? I don't like the idea of taking data points exclusively from tweener outfielders who play both CF and R/LF, and generalizing the conclusions derived from that data to the broader population of all centerfielders and left and right fielders.

So those adjustments don't work for me. I don't want say Coco Crisp's defense in CF is X runs more valuable than Mark Teahen's defense in RF because David DeJesus is X runs better in left field than he is in center field. I want something that says Coco Crisp's defense is worth Y runs because if you brought in some AAA CF, he'd surrender Y more runs than Crisp would. We need to know Crisp and Teahen's values over replacement defenders.

Value over replacement player is pretty easy--as far as I know, they just take the league average, and multiply it by about 80%, and bam! that's what Jason Smith can offer you. But defense doesn't seem to be like that. A AAA center fielder won't catch 20% fewer fly balls than Crisp will. Garth Brooks would do better than that. So how is a replacement defender defined? VORP assumes league average defense for the position. Perhaps VORD should assume league average offense for that position? Something tells me our RF replacement defenders who can play league average offense for RF are already in the Majors playing 1B. So how do you define a replacement defender?

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I feel like someone must have already done this

Please, link away.

by kcdc1 on Nov 21, 2008 10:42 PM EST reply actions

Some related resources

I know you have probably read some of this stuff, kcdc1 (and may disagree with it), but here is some related stuff on replacement level and fielding.

Justin Inaz, What do we mean by replacement players?

A relevant excerpt from Justin that summarizes some points

…with respect to replacement level, it looks like we can assume that bench and fringe players tend to be fairly average defenders. There might be a slight tendency for fringe players to be slightly above average, though it’s not by more than a run or two. Furthermore, as you can see, the fielding values get rather volatile on the right side of the figure (almost certainly due to sample size—fielding stats are more volatile than hitting stats), so I think it’s safest to assume that replacement level fielding is essentially the same as MLB-average fielding. This finding is consistent with similar work by Tom Tango. One thing that is very clear is that replacement players are not massively below average fielders.

Of course, I realize that the Tango stuff is something you find to be of questionable value… but Tango’s post on Replacement Level Fielding is closely related.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by Matt Klaassen on Nov 21, 2008 10:54 PM EST reply actions

I hadn't read that

But it doesn’t surprise me. If a starter gets hurt, teams call up a guy who can field the position but can’t hit. They don’t call up a guy who can hit, but can’t field. But if you say replacement level defense is roughly equal to MLB defense (which seems reasonable), then you hit the same problem when you try to differentiate values between positions. Maybe the way you look at it is you say a replacement center fielder will play league average defense and create 40 runs offensively while a replacement right fielder will play league average defense and create 60 runs defensively. Therefore, the difference in defensive value between center field and left field is 20 runs. How many runs does the average CF and RF create per year?

by kcdc1 on Nov 21, 2008 11:15 PM EST up reply actions

ok, league average offensive value by position is pretty easy to obtain

I’d like to have larger time frame, but this article has it so nicely broken down already that I’ll settle for just 2006’s data.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/historical-hitting-by-position/

Catchers: -8
First basemen: +13
Second basemen: -5
Third basemen: +6
Shortstops: -5
Left fielders: +8
Center fielders: +2
Right fielders: +7
Designated hitters: +13

Assuming 2006 is a perfectly represents expected MLB talent at every position, and the MLB playing time market is perfectly rational, center field defense is worth 5 more runs per 162 games than right field defense. Needless to say, I am perfectly comfortable with those assumptions, and you should be too.

According to Baseball Reference’s Runs Created, Teahen created 81.8 runs/162 games. Crisp created 75.15 runs/162 games. Add 5 to Crisp and you conclude that they’re exactly the same. Time to find different numbers.

by kcdc1 on Nov 21, 2008 11:47 PM EST up reply actions

So here's the next question

and then I’ll stop replying to my own comments.

You can take out the assumption that the 2006 data will work as representative sample for projecting 2009 values by, you know, using different data, so that’s not interesting to me. I want to be able to say a center fielder creates 5 less runs offensively than a right fielder does, and therefore, an average center fielder’s defense is worth 5 more runs than an average right fielder’s defense is worth. But in order to do that you, have to assume that teams assign playing time rationally. The 5 million dollar question—how do you either justify that assumption or get around it?

by kcdc1 on Nov 22, 2008 12:17 AM EST up reply actions

Basically, if I ma reading the graph correctly, if you are a starter in the AL...

You tend to have a better bat then a starter in the NL, but tend to not be as good on defense. In other words, Crisp looks more like a scrub or a bench player in the AL because that is what bench players tend to look like. His value as a defender/hitter would be recognized in the NL as a starter, where thier bench players tend to hit somewhat better due to the need for pinch hitters, while the defense for scrubs is generally is not better then the starters.
     Teahen, for example, looks like a good national league bench player or starter, while he looks like a scrub in the American leauge. His actual value is really the same, but the way guys are used in the two leagues makes him look so much different. That is why the NL would look at Teahen as a starter, and he looks like a bench player in the AL, it is the “type” of player he is vs is actual value. If you count everything up he is actually a marginal starter/bench player in both the AL and NL.
      Another example is Guillen, who looks like a starter in the AL, and a bench player in the NL. His actual value really is a marginal starter/bench player in both leauges.
      Crisp looks like a starter in the NL, and he looks like a bench player in the AL. His actual value is a starter in both leagues.
     Basiclly, a run saved on defense is as good as a run scored on offense, its just that Crisp looks more like scrubs in the AL his is true value is a good as the other starters. He is a green bug on a green leaf in the AL, and a green bug on a red leaf in the NL as far as telling his VORP by looking at him.

Go Royals!

by BabyBlues on Nov 22, 2008 12:00 AM EST reply actions

Here we go

This website gave me some RC/G data broked down by position for 2003-2007.

http://jinaz-reds.blogspot.com/2007/10/player-value-part-2c-offense-positional.html

They say the average CF would create 4.9 R/G while the average RF would creat 5.4 R/G, for a difference of 0.5 R/G. The last two years have Teahen at 4.6 RC/G while Crisp was at 4.7 RC/G. Add 0.5 to Crisp’s total, and now his 5.2 RC/G looks much better than Teahen’s 4.6 RC/G. Consider me contented.

by kcdc1 on Nov 22, 2008 12:01 AM EST reply actions

Also think about moving DDJ to left field.

It is putting a green leaf under DDJ’s green bug, when he had a red leaf in center, I think that is why a lot of people don’t like that move.

Go Royals!

by BabyBlues on Nov 22, 2008 12:05 AM EST up reply actions

yeah, Justin in general explains things quite well

nice guy, too. I have stuff waiting for me to finish it and post it based on his player valuation

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by Matt Klaassen on Nov 22, 2008 12:34 AM EST up reply actions

When I have some free time

I’m going to try to come up with something totally sweet for positional adjustments. Just you wait.

by kcdc1 on Nov 22, 2008 3:04 PM EST reply actions

all else being equal

Your point in the article is basically that. That Teabag and Coco are essentially equal in both hitting and fielding. I’m not sure I agree with that point but let’s just assume it’s true. Then, isn’t it simply enough as a differentiator to agree that Coco is faster and keep the better athlete? I’ll take Coco.

Just like it is sometimes assumed that players might do better with a change of scenery, I think it can also apply to us fans. For me, Teahen has totally peaked, I don’t think he will ever improve beyond his current skills. A lot of fans still give him a bunch of slack for a short period of outperformance several years ago. But for me, watching him continue to underperform that hype drives me batty and my psyche will simply be greatly improved if he moves on.

by kabrink on Nov 22, 2008 7:50 PM EST reply actions

Where's the love for Teahen?

Why compare Teahen and Coco. The comparison should be Teahen and Guillen, shouldn’t it? That’s the position we’re looking at: RF. Teahen may be mediocre but consistently mediocre is probably better for the team over the course of the season than six weeks of hot and four and a half months of suck; especially considering everything else Jose brings to the table. Please tell me if I’m missing the point.

by Steve Hovley on Nov 22, 2008 8:21 PM EST reply actions

Sorry, one last point--is Guillen 8 million bucks better than Teahen.

by Steve Hovley on Nov 22, 2008 8:25 PM EST reply actions

Long story short

I don’t think, when all things are considered, that Guillen is even as good at Teahen. Not even this last year, when he hit better than Teahen (although not by as much as it might seem). His defense has been that bad. Teahen was also better in 2007 and 2006. Not to keep pushing it, but check out my spreadsheet comparison of the last four years of the four main KC OFs of the moment (DDJ, Teahen, Guillen, Crisp).

I understand that people are sick of Teahen, and hey, if there’s an upgrade for the right price (and talent and salary relative to performance are both part of any price), take it.

Although there are still some projection systems to come, of the ones that have both Guillen and Teahen, neither have Guillen hitting as well as Teahen (the defense is as much of a foregone conclusion as you can get in that regard — although there’s really no such thing w/ regard to defense in particular). I suspect ZiPS will be pretty hard on Teahen, but we’ll see (it doesn’ t like Crisp, that’s for sure. Hope it’s wrong…)

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by Matt Klaassen on Nov 22, 2008 8:36 PM EST up reply actions

Great work!!!!!!!!

by Steve Hovley on Nov 22, 2008 8:56 PM EST reply actions

I'm referring to the spreadsheet. Can't quite get that 'blue box' thing down.

by Steve Hovley on Nov 22, 2008 8:58 PM EST reply actions

This is why i prefer scouting on defense rather than numbers

I just don’t think you can quantify this type of thing. Maybe I don’t understand fully (I don’t), but whatever. That’s just me.

Exactly what you said…

Crisp > DeJesus in CF
DeJesus > Teabags in LF

Pretty simple to me. Also, like I said before, being in LF helps DDJ stay healthy the whole season, and we really need his bat at the top of the order (whether it’s 1, 2, or 3). I don’t think that’s the argument here though!

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Nov 23, 2008 2:07 AM EST reply actions