Speed Score: What is it good for? The Speed of the Current Royals Roster

So a few weeks back I got to thinking about "Speed Score," something about which I'd heard, but never really looked into. It came up when talking about how one could know if a bad 3B like Ryan Braun could handle the outfield (from what I've read, he's been a bit above average out there). Someone suggested using a Speed Score might help.. So I looked it up, but at the time it just seemed to complicated. That and I couldn't find anyone who had a simple spreadsheet plug-in for it, or already had one published and freely available.

Well, this morning I was looking at the 2006 Bill James Handbook (I think I got it when I asked for the New Historical Abstract and either I or the giver got mixed up), and lo-and-behold, I found the formula for "Speed Score!" So, you guessed it, I took a bunch of Royals players from last year, plugged the formula into a spreadsheet, and put it on Google Docs. Yeah, i did it again. Sue me. Or don't read it. I don't get into the methodology, since I was just plugging numbers in anyway. That's where the link above leads. Baseball Prospectus apparently has a newer (and presumably better) version of Speed Score, but you need a subscription to get it, and I like the "do-it-yourself" stuff, since I can pretend to be an analyst when I actually just plugging numbers into the computer.

James' version uses certain formula to rate stolen base percentage, steal attempts, percentage of triples, runs scored per times on base, GIDP frequency, and defensive range (as measure by range factor... I know, but that's what the formula uses... just look at the stuff before you complain) on a scale from 0 to 10. Throw out the lowest number and take the average of the other five, and that's the speed score.
Now, I assume this give us a sense of relative "baseball game speed" rather than just running speed, otherwise we could just time guys to first or whatever. Anyone have an insight into how this should be used, or if it's really useful at all? I wish I'd asked before I spent so much time on it...

But what about the Royals? You can get more details (including the component results and formulas) by going to the spreadsheet, but for some reason (probably the craploads of formulas and conditions I put in there) I couldn't get it to sort from top to bottom without screwing the whole thing up. So here is the sorted list, from top to bottom:

Joey Gathright 7.24
Coco Crisp 7.09
David DeJesus 6.36
Mark Teahen 6.05
Esteban German 5.68
Tony Pena, Jr. 5.48
Alex Gordon 5.18
Miguel Olivo 4.56
M.Grudzielanek 4.25
Jose Guillen 3.84
Alberto Callaspo 3.36
Mike Jacobs 2.85
Ross Gload 2.80
Ryan Shealy 2.07
John Buck 1.65
Billy Butler 1.27

Not too many surprises, I don't think, which actually says something good about the formula, if you ask me. But maybe there are some surprises... any thoughts? Reactions to the results? Apathy?

I'm not sure what to think. Crisp and Gathright at the top are no surprise, of course. .Some of this might reflects, say, Teahen's skill at knowing when he can take the extra base, but how much is actually speed rather than smarts?

I wonder why the anti-Buck crowd never brings up Miguel Olivo's surprising (for a catcher) stolen base numbers?

I will say that I am stunned and angry with my computer for putting Billy Butler at the bottom. That number is an absolute lie.

about 1 year ago devil_fingers 38 comments 2 recs |

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he seems faster (Billy Butler, that is)

The concept of progress acts as a protective mechanism to shield us from the terrors of the future. - Collected sayings of Muad'Dib

by buddyball on Nov 22, 2008 9:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

How did DeJesus come off third with all the baserunning gaffs?

by Steve Hovley on Nov 22, 2008 9:36 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

this isn't a baserunning score

that’s something different — this is about “baseball speed,” not baserunning skill.

Look at the spreadsheet DDJ gets great marks for “Range Factor” and GDP. SB cs. CS is his lowest category and it isn’t all that bad at 4.

Actually, though, on the topic somewhere online there’s an introduction to the baserunning section of the 2007 or 2008 James Handbook. Teahen, as most know, is a good baserunner, but in that introduction, DDJ rates almost or equally as high — they’re both in the top 5 for 10 in the league, at least that year.

Maybe DDJ isn’t really that good, or was and isn’t anymore, or simply he’s still good, but the gaffes were just so obvious that they overshadowed his skill in that area. The latter’s a possibility, since that sort of thing is more subtle than say, good basestealing numbers alone.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 22, 2008 10:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

+1

I think DDJ is generally a very good baserunners who takes a few unnecessary, somewhat idiotic risks a year, and then people remember those few instances.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Nov 23, 2008 2:23 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

or just gets randomly picked off at the worst times

DDJ is my favorite non-Gordon player…and his only flaw is the random (rare, but seemingly often) base running errors. kinda frustrating.

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Nov 23, 2008 2:25 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, his baserunning is great,

but he’s not “clutch.” :P

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Nov 23, 2008 4:24 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

His Arm Is

Very questionable, but more acceptable in LF than CF.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Nov 23, 2008 11:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Don't know reliable they are

but his 2005-2007 arm rating from THT are pretty good. +.5 in 2005, +8.5 in 2006, and -2.7 in 2007. No rating for 2008 yet.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 23, 2008 2:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I Only Know

What my eyes have told me for the last 2 years.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Nov 23, 2008 4:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

cool

I dont know much about THT Arms ratings on their own, just thought I’d add that to the mix. I was surprised they weren’t worse myself, but then part of the reason I need stats so much is that I don’t “see” the game all that well — I’m sort of the Buzz Bissinger negative baseball blogger stereotype.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 23, 2008 5:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Eyes!

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Nov 23, 2008 5:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

(The Hills Have)

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 23, 2008 5:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I hope your indignation

over Butler being at the bottom was sarcasm

by KHAZAD on Nov 22, 2008 11:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Computers are the devil

Accidentally not thedude925 anymore. I do hate this new name.

by wildthang on Nov 22, 2008 11:27 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

a butler/sweeney race could be awesome

by royalsreview on Nov 23, 2008 1:30 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

really? I think Sweeney would kick his ass in a race

now honestly, who wouldn’t love the see butler show up in better shape next year? supposedly he IS working really hard to try to do that this offseason…which is nice. hopefully he is.

i don’t think we expect him to be this billy—

but if he can be more like this…that would be good—

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Nov 23, 2008 1:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

it looks to me like you want Billy to find that machine that Tom Hanks used in "Big"

did they Royals draft him when he was 13?

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 23, 2008 2:08 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think Billy would lose to

Mike Sweeney, Steve Balboni, Matt Stairs, Cecil Fielder, Jake Taylor from Major League, and perhaps Jamie Moyer. He could beat Benjie Molina, Runelvys Hernandez , Kirk Gibson limping around the bases and me. (Although my 22 year old self would’ve left him in the dust.) Seriously, it is not just that he is slow, but also tentative and completely without instinct. I hope he is getting in shape because it could make a big difference for him-and the team.

by KHAZAD on Nov 23, 2008 3:37 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

butler's no match for sweeney

sweeney stole home for pete’s sake.

Don't Stop Believing!

by KC Chris on Nov 23, 2008 2:01 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

grudz is middling?

he always looked slow as all hell to me

by royalsreview on Nov 23, 2008 1:32 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

that’s why I’m looking for someone to explain more thoroughly what the score is supposed to do. It’s clearly not a measure of “straight speed” or anything.

I know what they’re trying to do with Range Factor, but I think it gives certain defenders a real edge just by playing their position.

For something so silly, this has to be the most complicated spreadsheet I’ve ever done — some of the conditionals I had to do were too much for Excel, and I had to do it manually.

although I’m going to bed now

am I posting too much dumb stuff like this?

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 23, 2008 2:07 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Wow, look at the grouping of our speedy right side defense:

The "Gang of Four’ first base candidates, Grudz and Berto at 2B, and Guillen in RF are seven of the bottom eight on this list.

by Steve Hovley on Nov 23, 2008 5:21 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Gang of Four

is a great nickname for those guys. If only chairman Mao was around to instill some plate discipline…

by KCBear on Nov 23, 2008 2:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, I'm pretty sure the walks would come around then.

by Steve Hovley on Nov 23, 2008 4:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The only explanation for...

…some of these scores (i.e. Grudz, DDJ, Olivo, and maybe Teahan) is that the “Speed Score” smuggles in some baserunning skills. There’s no way that the score cannot include some degree of skill. I assume, analogously, that things like “range factor” cannot always weed out positioning skills or instincts. – TL

[In 2008] Kila Ka’aihue had the best on-base percentage of any hitter in the minor leagues. - Joe Posnanski, 11/9/2008 ... Ergo, let's give him a shot at first base in KC in 2009.

by timlacy on Nov 23, 2008 11:40 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I think that's what d_f meant by "baseball speed"

This isn’t a raw speed indicator, or at least it isn’t just an indicator of raw speed. You can get that from their times in the 40. But it at least approximates the speed-talent of these players with regard to its usage in baseball. So it isn’t just raw speed, nor just certain baseball skills, but it contains elements of both.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 23, 2008 11:51 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

yup, thanks, that's what I'm thinking

I was hoping you or morse or someone knew what James said/says about what he meant it to do

On a different topic, at different times I’ve tried to find the article about the study on bullpens and Pythag. I tried back in September, then earlier this week. You told me what generaly result was (+1.4 wins or something), but I’m just curious to read it myself. Maybe I’m a Google idiot, but I just can’t find it. Maybe it isn’t even on the free site.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 23, 2008 2:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I read it in Baseball Prospectus’s 2006 annual in their write up of the Chicago White Sox. That’s where I got the 1.4 number. Of course it was something like “1.4 wins for a great bullpen” or something like that. So how many wins if it is merely a very good bullpen? It would be good to see a larger study.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 23, 2008 11:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

well, that explains why google wouldn't bring it up

I would like so see it. Probablly wouldn’t understand all of it. I wonder if it is based on historical evaluations, leverage, or what.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 23, 2008 11:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Where's Aviles?

I’d expect to be in the middle-to-lower part of the pack.

by RoyalsFanInBillings on Nov 23, 2008 12:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

D'oh! totally forgot about AVILANCHE

how embarrassing… He only has one partial year of mlb data… I’ll run it in a minute. Not sure how easy it will be to add him to the spreadsheet, but I’ll let you know the “score.”

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 23, 2008 2:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm actually kinda surprised Shealy is

faster than anyone.

by minda33 on Nov 23, 2008 2:50 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

He was too, after he got of the oxygen tank and realized he hadn't come in last

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 23, 2008 5:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

AVILANCHE and Sweendog

A preliminary run at Aviles (very small sample — James is quite insistent on there being two seasons of data) returns a .588, right below Teabag and right above the Kaiser.

Sweendog versus Butler:

Billy Baconator: 1.27

Oh Captain my Captain: 1.86

I should do Huber, too. Then we could finally see why he was such an awesome pinch-runner.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 23, 2008 5:33 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

make that "5.88" for Aviles

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 23, 2008 5:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It Was Only

Because TPJ was such a beast as a PH.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Nov 24, 2008 1:43 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

What James was trying to do

Here’s the basics behind the speed score. James was looking for a semi-objective way, without a stopwatch, to answer the question “How fast is this guy?” Scores generally range from 3 (pathetically slow) to 10 (Vince Coleman). (So, that 1.27 on Billy Butler now has some context.) James’s scores are based on regular season stats, so anyone can calculate them with relative ease. I have some nitpick issues with some things, but overall, it’s pretty good. A year or so ago, I developed my own speed score, and went through all the numerical gymnastics that one is suppose to go through when rigorously constructing a measure. (James will be the first to tell you that he is not a proper statistician.) When I compared my measure to James’s, the two were very closely correlated. The more plate appearances a player has, the better the estimate of his speed, but all in all, it’s a pretty good formula.

http://mvn.com/mlb-stats

by pizzacutter on Nov 24, 2008 10:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

thanks, pizzacutter

I remember it being suggested that it might also help indicate which infield players struggling with their possitions might have the baseball speed to play the outfield competently. Am I imagining that, or does that have some basis?

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 24, 2008 11:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs