Baseball America's Top Ten Royals Prospects
by Freneau on Nov 24, 2008 12:59 PM EST
in Kansas City Royals News
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PrintGood stuff from Baseball America this morning:
Like the Athletics before them, the Rays have become the hope for the hopeless. While the disparities between large- and small-revenue clubs stacks the deck in favor of the Yankees, Red Sox and others, Tampa Bay proved again in 2008 that a less-advantaged club can succeed if it drafts well, develops its own players and makes wise trades.
That's good news for the Royals. But it also leads to the question: If the Rays can do it, why hasn't Kansas City been able to break through?
Here are your top ten Royals prospects according to the venerable BA:
- Mike Moustakas
- Eric Hosmer
- Daniel Cortes
- Mike Montgomery
- Tim Melville
- Danny Duffy
- Danny Gutierrez
- Carlos Rosa
- Kila Ka'aihue
- Blake Wood
In conclusion:
They [Montgomery, Moustakas, Hosmer] will be counted on to lead the next Royals' resurgence, but it will likely require more patience. Most of the Royals' best young players already have reached the majors, though they have accumulated a number of strong arms and athletic center fielders in their system. They have few hitting prospects at the upper levels, however, and few high-ceiling bats besides third baseman Mike Moustakas and Hosmer.
At 2:30 EST J.J. Cooper will be hosting a Royals chat at BA. I'll also be posting a brief Q&A with him a bit later, so if you have a good question, share it ASAP in the comments.
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the Top Ten prospects according to our on-site survey, put together by doublestix, btw
- Mike Moustakas, 3B
- Eric Hosmer, 1B
- Daniel Cortes, RHP
- Kila Ka’aihue, 1B
- Daniel Duffy, LHP
- Carlos Rosa, RHP
- Tim Melville, RHP
- Mike Montgomery, LHP
- Johnny Giavotella, 2B
- Blake Wood, RHP
Interesting
Looks like Kila’s season put a lot more expectations in RR than BA. I’d say our voting was probably a little overly-optimistic.
by I need more Esteban on Nov 24, 2008 1:10 PM EST up reply actions
BA values upside much more than performance
it’s a different philosophy. I would personally put Kila above Montgomery, Melville, Duffy, and Gutierrez because he’s accomplished more at higher levels
Waiting for April.
And guys like Duffy...
have arguably accomplished more than Kila did in lower levels. Let’s be frank—until this year, Kila had exactly one good year in the minors—his 2005 season at High Desert—out of several tours of duty.
Good point and I think your opinion is completely valid but
I still think there’s a lot to be said for accomplishment at higher levels. That said, Duffy and Kila essentially could rank anywhere between 3-10 depending on what you value in a prospect, and I wouldn’t strongly disagree.
Waiting for April.
But....
if you throw out the one season where he played hurt the entire year (reportedly) (2006), then it looks like he has had very good plate discipline the entire time, with modest, albeit slow, development, followed by an explosion of power in 2008 to go with the plate discipline.
I’m OK with starting him out in AAA this season, but I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he forces a move by the All-Star break. Given that scenario, one could argue that ranking him 4th is perfectly reasonable.
Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!
plate discipline does not a top-5 prospect make
(although it sure as shit helps.)
Duffy’s stats so far have been substantially above average, including his peripherals. Kila’s, not so much, especially given that he is a first baseman, above-average offensive production should be expected from him already. Duffy has a much smaller sample size, to be sure, but he has been consistently excellent at lower levels where Kila was not. Those are the closest to direct comparisons we will be able to get, and Duffy is winning it hands-down.
Just because a prospect might force a move to the bigs by the ASB doesn’t mean he should be ranked #4 in our entire system. I do think Kila is worthy of a spot on our top-10 prospect list. But I do think #4 is a bit high, and I would not rank him above Duffy.
mark it down!
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 24, 2008 3:18 PM EST up reply actions
i think he'll be here before then
sometime in 2010…he will be here very quickly
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
Do you see him as a starter or a utility guy?
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 24, 2008 4:22 PM EST up reply actions
starter...without a doubt for me
he is small, but from everything i have read he has surprising power despite the size. he has huge forearms and allows the ball get deep into the zone. i have seen comparisons from Pedroia, Knoblauch, and Michael Young. i like the knoblauch comp (career .290/.380/.410) with a bit less OBP and a bit more SLG.
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
cool
For some reason I’ve taken a liking to the guy, even though I know next to nothing about him other than that he’s short, “gritty,” Italian, and best of all, from New Orleans.
Huge Forearms are a plus, too. I still think Gordon needs to get Popeye-esque anchors tattooed on his.
You know, you and I view the game differently, but we have silmilar tastes. Rowdy Hardy is a given, but Gordon is your favorite current Royal (I think), and he’s one of mine. Oddly, I don’t think it is that common. Of course, being from Nebraska, you have a good reason. I have no idea why I like him — probably because he seems “boring” if that makes any sense… no, it doesn’t, but I can’t really explain it right now.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 24, 2008 4:38 PM EST up reply actions
For at least a few of your reasons
Giavotella is going to be a fan favorite.
Yea, my favorite player is Gordon. We’re just ahead of the crew so there won’t be any bandwagon to jump on once he breaks out next year.
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
Even I'm surprised
I did a " total value" thing today on the Royals roster w/ prorated replacement level, defense for each position, defensive stats I could find (PMR mostly, then Dewan’s that I knew), and offensive linear weights.
Gordon was at 2.45 WAR in just 134 games, which is 2.96 over 162. 2 is considered average. I knew he was making progress, but that was really still a pleasant surprise.
I’m sure once he gets “big” there will be stories that make him look like a jerk (although I"m guessing no worse than you would hear about from any other guy who’d been a stud athelete his whole life). But for now, he’s kind of underrated and “bland,” which is pretty funny to mefor some reason.
Forearms rule.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 24, 2008 6:27 PM EST up reply actions
any reason why?
His lines have been sterling both this year in Burlington and last year in rookie ball. Sure, he’s only been in the system for a couple of seasons, but I think he is a legitimate B-level prospect. His stats may dip slightly when he moves to high A ball this year, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he keeps plugging away either.
Questions for you and cooper
How are the Royals doing in building their minor league system? What are the areas of need in their minor league system? How is Dayton doing as GM so far? Rate the addition of Arbuckle to the Royals staff. What should the Royals do to improve their major league roster for 2009? Who should the Royals take in the next amateur draft?
montgomery
fastball – 88-93
changeup – very good for young pitcher, solid late sink
curve – good, but inconsistent
He also has a palmball, which is kind of like a curve according to him. The thing to like is that there is a TON of projection with him. His mechanics are still raw and he is quite skinny (6-foot-5, 180). His pitches are good now, and you can project them to get better.
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
once again, I don't know crap about pitching
allow me to reveal my ignorance (not that I usually need an excuse):
isn’t a palmball usually just a kind of changeup?
6-5., 180… that’s pretty hilarious. Gotta post some pics. I assume having a mullet is part of his contract?
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 24, 2008 4:41 PM EST up reply actions
yea
i thought a palmball was like a changeup, but he said himself in an interview that it was kind of like a curve. his words, not mine.
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
I love pitcher faces
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 24, 2008 6:28 PM EST up reply actions
A palmball
Is akin to several types of pitches. What it does is created tons more friction on the hand than your typical (for lack of a better term) finger based pitches. It is also REALLY hard to control.
Basically, the most common side effect from a palm ball is loads of backspin, and, depending on where the ‘trigger’ finger is, it can move either right or left out of the hand.
The pitch that is pictured above is NOT a true palm ball though. One of the keys to a true palm ball is to basically lock the pitch up in the back of the hand as much as possible (which is also why it is hard as hell to control).
Judging from the picture, it looks like his palmball will be the combination of a changeup-slider, but his grip looks relatively similar grip that can also create a screw-ball type action. It really depends if he brings his hand flat toward the batter (like he would be slapping a table top) or sideways (like he was delivering a karate chop). In my mind, I see the latter, creating a pitch that breaks into a right handed batter.
i remember lots of guys throwing palmballs in the late 80s early 90s when i was a kid
i hope it comes back
iirc
Roy Halladay throws a palmball. Just one more reason he is awesome. That and the neckbeard. And the 23 complete games a year.
thanks, GoBabies
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 24, 2008 10:11 PM EST up reply actions
and he's one of the only
if not the only one that has him donating 100 grand a year to charity according to cot’s contracts.
Accidentally not thedude925 anymore. I do hate this new name.
Matt Mitchell out for the year?
I read that a guy on Baseball America said Matt Mitchell is out for 2009 with TJ surgery. True?
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Berkman Will Surely
Be ours!
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Nov 24, 2008 5:07 PM EST up reply actions
nah
That will just add to our 1B/DH collection!
It will be nice seeing Oswalt pitch for us on opening day though.
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
#4 at best
waaaay too short
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 24, 2008 6:28 PM EST up reply actions
Darin Erstad
He’s a footballer with GRIT!
by David Howards Legacy on Nov 24, 2008 5:15 PM EST up reply actions
Husker fantasies
with Alex, Darin & T-Bones legend Ken Harvey
by David Howards Legacy on Nov 24, 2008 5:17 PM EST up reply actions
Questions for BA dude
- What does he think of Gutierrez? The kid has great stuff and numbers, but is small. Does he think he can stay in the rotation?
- Why so down on Rosa? I take it that BA is projecting him as a reliever with dropping him to #8, but his stuff makes me think it’s likely he’ll be a dynamite reliever.
Founder of the Rowdy Hardy Fan Club
I was wondering about Rosa's ranking as well
I think I had Rosa either 4th or 5th on my own personal list, and the RR community has him at 6th. 8th seems a tad low for a prospect who, albeit with injury concerns, still has some scouts saying he projects out to a middle-of-the-rotation starter.
I WAS WRONG
After Hosmer was drafted, I started the holy way in which I stated that Hosmer would be #1 prospect over Moose on BA.
I was wrong, I can admit it…
We just signed some new prospects.
Go Royals!
I miss Baseball season
I really do. You can make your own top ten list on my buddy’s site http://www.toptentopten.com/
http://www.toptentopten.com/topten/guys+that+aren_t+earning+their+paychecks+
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