drumroll… I’m not waiting past next year’s trade deadline to deal him if the Royals aren’t contending. The first half of 2009 is my audition for Greinke, and if he doesn’t call us back, we deal him for somebody who will.

Let’s go by tRA based stuff from stat corner. tRA (a kind park- and league- adjusted FIP) is based on runs allowed rather than earned runs, so the rate stats are a higher. All for 2008

Greinke:

tRA: 3.74
tRA* (regressed to ’true talent): 4.06
Pitching Runs above average (pRAA): 26.1
Pitching runs above replacement ((pRAR for starters = praa *1.28)): 33.4

Hamels:

tRA: 3.63
tRA* 4.10
pRAA 28.2
pRAR 36.1

Peavey

tRA 4.02
tRA* 4.26
pRAA 13.8
pRAR 17.7

Greinke’s a stud. He deserves better than Kazmir money. I hope something like that is offered and taken.

While I think psychological comfort might be an issue, I think Greinke wants the money. I don’t think where he goes (or stays) is about whether the team is winning or not. Sure, all things being equal he’d rather play for a winner. But the money — for him and the vast majority of players — is the key things. In this society, men tend to value themselves based on what they do for a living and how much money they make. When you’re in a profession where your annual salary is published for all the world to see, how much money you make is even more important. He sees how much other pitchers make. He sees the other big contracts. He wants his. He wants to be in the rarefied air of those elite pitchers who make the elite money.

Now, might he be willing to get some guaranteed money now from the Royals including a year or two of fairly market rate free agent years? Possibly. It is not out of the question. But I think the size of contract offer he gets from the Royals is a lot more important than who Moore acquires or how successful the Royals are in 2009 and/or 2010.

(posted from my parents’ home in Derby, KS – I feel much better blogging from my parents’ house. That’s how blogging is supposed to be done)

Marcel/James Projections

both have him declining is pretty much every stat not huge dropoffs but considering I think most in here expect another step forward would you do the longterm deal?

Here are four trades to look at:
(1) I’ll start with what I think is the least relevant analogy. Johan Santana, 1 year away from free agency to the Twins for a bundle of solid players. I think it’s least relevant because Johan Santana was, pretty much hands down, the best pitcher in baseball when he was traded. I have a lot of love for Greinke, a lot of love. But Greinke would have to rise to the Santana level over the next year, and while he’s got the chance, I’m not putting him on that pedestal just yet.
Here are the players the Twins got:
Carlos Gomez, Deolis Guerra, Kevin Mulvey, Phillip Humber. I think Mulvey, Guerra, and Humber are all upper-middle class pitching prospects, and Gomez, of course, has quite the high ceiling.
(2) The Sabathia trade might be closer to what we could expect for Greinke if we waited until his free agent year. Here’s what the Indians got:
Matt Laporta, Robert Bryson, Taylor Greene, Zack Jackson.
Laporta has a ton of upside, he was rated the #23 overall prospect by BA at the time of the trade. Think Billy Butler with a tad more defense. I understand that Bryson and Greene are B-level pitching prospects with good upside, and Jackson is a throw in. So one very good player and two decent players. Makes me think waiting one more year might not be so bad. Of course, Greinke would have to equal not only Sabathia’s pitching numbers, but also his house-hold-name prestige. Rember, Sabathia is one of the youngest pitchers to win 100 games.
(3) The following two trades are a good indicator of what we could expect if we were to trade him right now (or before the deadline this year):
The first is Erik Bedard to the Mariners for:
Adam Jones, George Sherrill, Tony Butler, Chris Tillman, and Kam Mikolio.
Adam Jones is an even better return than Matt Laporta. The Mariners must have been out of their minds to make this deal, but that’s my opinion. The guy plays a good center field, hit 25 homers and had a .968 OPS his last AAA season. How many CF prospects do that? Then you have Sherrill, who had an outstanding season. He’s a prototypical closer. Tillman was Seattle’s #3 prospect (for the sake of argument, let’s say he’s Danny Duffy), Butler was their #12 prospect, and God only knows who Kam Mickolio is. So that’s a stud CF, a major league closer, a Danny Duffy, a Chris Nicoll, and an experiment. I will take that return faster than Greinke can say "show me the money."
(4) Dan Haren to Arizona for:
Brett Anderson, Dana Eveland, Greg Smith, Chris Carter, Aaron Cunningham, Carlos Gonzalez.
Greg Smith and Carlos Gonzalez became two-thirds of Matt Holliday-for-one-year (kind of a puzzling trade if you ask me). But, forgetting that, Gonzo is probably better than Carlos Gomez, and Greg Smith has good upside. Then you have Chris Carter who is mashing his way through the low minors Mike Moustakas-style. We all know Dana Eveland pretty well, a solid MLB-ready #3 starter. Brett Anderson is intriguing, and Aaron Cunningham is a good fourth outfielder (probably Mark Teahen-level player).
While I like the Orioles’ take better, I think blurring your eyes between the Haren and Bedard trades gives you an idea of what we get for Greinke before next year’s deadline. Add to this soup the fact that the Cubs are now in talks with the Padres for Peavy, and the players that were mentioned this morning included Josh Vitters, Sean Marshall, and about five others.
Sooo…. Once again, how much is a season of Greinke worth? Some of my colleagues—avid, informed baseball fans—believe Greinke’s value will increase significantly with even just another half-season. But beyond July ’09, Orioles-type offers may not be on the table.