…interesting. I’ll see you all when it’s over.

Obama +5.2%
Obama 306 electoral votes
11:29 EST

Obama 7% over McCain
               41% over Nader
                320 electoral votes
                10 a.m.est

Barack Obama 51% John McCain 45%

Barack Obama 352 EVs John McCain 186 EVs

McCain concedes at 10:30 ET

Dems pick up 7 Senate Seats
Dems pick up 20 House Seats

Local stuff for Kansas City:

US House
Nancy Boyda (D) over Lynn Jenkins® (KS-2)
Dennis Moore (D) over Nick Jordan® (KS-3)
Emmanuel Cleaver (D) over Matt Turk® (MO-5)
Sam Graves® over Kay Barnes (D) (MO-6)

US Senate
Pat Roberts® over Jim Slattery (D) (KS)

MO Gov
Jay Nixon (D) over Kenny Hulsof®

MO Lt. Gov
Peter Kinder® over Sam Page (D)

MO AG
Chris Koster (D) over Mike Gibbons®

Prop A (Casino Loss Limit) – Passes

KCMO Light Rail – Passes

JOCO Research Triangle – Passes

JOCO Election of Judges – Fails

And get free stuff!

Free chicken sandwich at Chick-Fil-A

Free 12 oz coffee at Starbucks

Free Krispy Kreme star donut

Free scoop of ice cream at Ben and Jerry’s

Free pint at McCoy’s pub in Westport

All if you show an “I voted” sticker (participating locations only)

1. Obama in the popular vote by +7.5
2. Electoral College count: 338 Obama, 220 McCain
3. A bitter McCain waits 2 hours longer to give a concession speech than he might’ve, going at 11:30 am rather than 9:30.

Additional forecasts:

1. Rain in Brazil
2. Snow in northen Alaska
3. Party for Obama in Chicago
4. Pitty party at the National Review over Rep. ineptitude.
5. Democrats flagged across the nation for “excessive celebration” penalties—-excepting the Clinton household.

- TL

you heard it here first

senate 58/42, franken losing by a hair

Obama +7.2
348 EV
Concession speech 12:25 AM EST
After having to wait a while on Penn or Ohio.

Obama 3.2%
274
I’m guessing 1:05 a.m. EST, unless there’s an option for no concession speech because the Nevada vote count is in question

Obama 6.5%
338-200 electoral votes
12:30 am EST

Real Clear Politics currently has Obama’s national polling average at 7.6%. Many think he’ll end up doing worse than this in the election. I think he’ll do better for the following reasons.

1. Conservative polling models – Every pollster makes sure that their polling sample fits a model of the electorate based on gender, race, age and other factors (some include party ID). Many pollsters are going by the model of recent elections, or a slight alteration thereof. I think the electorate is going to be significantly different this year. As we saw in the primaries, there will be significantly more young people, African Americans, Latinos and new voters. All of these groups skew heavily towards Obama. The pollsters which used a more aggressive model to figure out this year’s electorate came up with numbers much more in favor of Obama. I think those will end up being more accurate.

2. Cell phone effect - Most pollsters do little or no polling of cell phones. They go strictly by land lines. That cuts out many younger voters who have only a cell phone and no land line. The polls which included cell phones in their calling samples came up with numbers much more in favor of Obama.

3. The Bradley Effect – In more recent elections of an African American vs. a Caucasian, there has been no Bradley Effect. I just don’t think it exists. White voters feel no compulsion to lie and say they are voting for the white candidate. I just don’t think there is one clear “socially acceptable response” to this kind of polling question. McCain will get no Bradley Effect bump.

While it is possible or even likely that a majority of undecideds will break for McCain, #1 and #2 will more than counteract that. So I think Obama will do about a percentage point better than his last polling average. Maybe more.