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Dayton Moore: Moneyball Disciple?

No, not in the Joe Morgan sense - he's not using a computer to make all of his decisions for him.

And no, not in the 2005 casual fan sense - he's not targeting guys with high OBPs.

Not even in the latest Billy Beane sense - he not (well, not anymore, anyway) targeting defensive wizards.

No, he may be trying to do what moneyball was really all about - winning by making other GMs think you're batcrap crazy with the moves you make**

 

Star-divide

**  By trying to find market inefficiencies in players that no one else wants.

You could make a case that Dayton is trying to exploit a current market inefficiency: players with SLG who offer little else in the way of OBP, speed, or defense.  Other teams tend to shy away from these players, so you can pick them up cheaply.

Example #1: Jose Guillen

SLG and RBI is about all he brings, although Dayton overestimated the competition here.  12M a year for JoGui is definitely not buying low.  Heck, the lack of competition for a player with JoGui's skillset may have conviced the front office that this is the way to go.

Example #2:  Miguel Olivo

Signed for 2.7 M with no loss of compensation picks acquired

Example #3: Mike Jacobs

32 HRs for the price of an oft-injured relief pitcher.

Example #4: Jason Smith

Sure he doesn't get a ton of playing time, but the only attribute Smith has going for him is SLG.  He was picked up for free.

 

Rumored pickup: Jeff Francoeur

SLG for the possible low-low price of Teahen + pitching prospect!!1!!!

 

No, not all of his recent offensive pickups exude the SLG aura.  Callapso certainly doesn't.  But the players that have been picked up, and the players that we are rumored to be in on, a trend is forming. 

The brillancy of this plan, is that once other GMs wake up, realize what's going on in Kansas City, they're going to want in on it.  When they begin to overvalue the high SLG, low OBP/defense players,  Moore will already have a large stash of them.  He'll fleece them all by trading them away to get other teams' high-OBP + good defense guys.  In the meantime, we'll get to watch a lot of solo HRs and quick innings.

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Quick innings also = more efficient!

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 5, 2008 1:07 PM EST   0 recs

seriously tho

I agree here big time. Everybody talks about on-base as the dominate stat these days for a reason. Its no longer a secret. Those types of things get very overvalued to a degree now. Dayton has to find those places where the market isn’t properly valuing production. Mike Jacobs is not good, but on the off chance he gets better, it could pay off big.

GMDM has made exactly 2 big moves since taking over, Meche and Guillen. One was great, one was marginal. EVERYTHING else has been buy low and in high quantity and see what you come out with. honestly, I think that’s a pretty good strategy for a small market team. It can be frustrating from a fans perspective becomes it involves lots of failures and guys who don’t pan out, but eventually you hit a few home runs.

by ZeppelinDZ on Nov 5, 2008 2:04 PM EST   0 recs

he's also seemingly preparing to trade our 2nd best hitting prospect...

in the last 10 years…while his stock is down…so he can pay mike jacobs and his 299 OBP 3.5 million…

TPJ...you're dead to me

by billybeingbilly on Nov 5, 2008 10:30 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

well...its pretty damn hard to imagine whatever he does with billy not being retarded...

whether it’s trading him or putting him as the lesser half of a platoon

TPJ...you're dead to me

by billybeingbilly on Nov 5, 2008 11:35 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

+1

nice to agree on something, eh…

bbb, where have you been? Viewing us with disgust, or just busy?

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 6, 2008 11:54 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

WTF

Top Ramen,

You blew your whole argument when you said cheap and mentioned JoGui as the #1 best example at $12M per. That would be cheap for Pujols, not for JoGui. Oh wait, Pujols makes $14M a year.

Btw, there is also a market inefficiency in guys who strike out with no power, like me. Dayton, if you’re reading, I’m available and I’ll play for the minimum as I am a gritty scrapper that plays the game the correct way. I just can’t hit an MLB breaking ball.

by AxDxMx on Nov 5, 2008 3:04 PM EST   0 recs

I can throw a knuckleball pretty good

And will play for peanuts and tickets to games.

by AngryJesus on Nov 5, 2008 5:39 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

agreed

you could even make a case that he’s shown a willingness to take so-called bad character guys (Guillen, Callaspo, Bradley) but again, Guillen’s non-bargain salary kinda kills the premise

by royalsreview on Nov 5, 2008 7:06 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Also, being willing to take on bad character guys

implies that they would be around to help the team when they are winning (there goes the Bradley thing) or, you know, actually help the team win in the sense of “being better than Shane Costa would be” (farewell Guillen 2008).

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 5, 2008 7:42 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

The post is intended to be sort of tongue-in-cheek

I don’t think DM is actively trying to work a moneyball angle with low SLG guys where he can buy low/sell high.

Heck, for it’s beginning to seem like he looks more at the 1980s style stats: BA / HR / RBI rather than the current BA / OBP / SLG split.

Really, I’m just trying to figure out what the hell he’s doing with the offense. With Allard Baird at the helm*, you always knew what he was trying to accomplish — he just picked incredibly crappy players to implement his plan. For example, he’d say we need to pick up a slugging outfielder, then pick up Juan Gonzalez – right idea, but the player was done. Next season, he’d say we need a slugging outfielder, and pick up Reggie Sanders. He followed his laid out plan, but whether due to poor scouting or lack of money, the players to implement the plan just weren’t good enough.


  * I have another post coming up soon (if I can ever get the table to format properly) on the past 10 years of Royals offense. Baird actually put together some mediocre to decent offensive teams, despite his complete inability to find competent pitchers. Combine the Royals 2002-2004 offense with the Royals current pitching staff and we’d have a team near the top of the division.

With Moore though, who really knows? He stated an offseason goal was to improve the OBP of the team, and has so far targeted two positions: C and 1B. Incredibly, he’s managed to replace Buck and Gload with guys who were even worse at getting on base than them last year. He’s preached plate discipline and hired Seitzer, but of the guys who actually have plate discipline, only Gordon looks safe (Callapso and German are backups, while Teahen, DeJesus, and Butler are seemingly on the trading block).

You could say he’s just trying not to tip his hand so he can go after guys like Francoeur, Betancourt, and Jacobs, but what’s the point? Those guys aren’t (or shouldn’t be) highly valued anyway. It’s entirely possible that our record improves next year due to the improvement of Gordon + the pitching staff, but that the offense is even worse.

by Top Ramen on Nov 5, 2008 8:48 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Note that Raul Ibanez was pretty good

and Emil Brown was awesome, well, really really good, at least, in 2005 and 2006. A post that I’ve been dilly-dallying around with for a while…

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 5, 2008 8:55 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

The whole 2003 offense was pretty amazing (well, by Royals standards anyway)

The top 5 lineup spots all had OBPs >= .340 and OPSes > .790.

by Top Ramen on Nov 5, 2008 9:11 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

The way things are going,

we may have the first ‘slger’ with 30 HR’s and 38 RBI’s.

by Steve Hovley on Nov 5, 2008 8:53 PM EST   0 recs

Wasn't Buck On

Course for something like that in the first half of 2007?

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Nov 5, 2008 10:21 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

or something... but luckily they fixed his swing

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 5, 2008 10:48 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Yeah, All His

Solo HR’s really blew.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Nov 5, 2008 11:01 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

My theory is

That given the option, Dayton will always choose the guys with the least walks, i.e. Olivo over Buck, Jacobs & probably Butler over Shealy & Kila, perhaps Francouer over Teahen. Talking about OBP is cheap

by KHAZAD on Nov 5, 2008 11:03 PM EST   0 recs

Teahen And Rivera

Would make a good RF platoon. Teahen could also spell Guillen against RHP’s, as Rivera’s splits are nearly neutral. Hoagie will need more down time in the next 2 years.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Nov 5, 2008 11:25 PM EST   0 recs

down time hopefully spent in New York, or Los Angeles, or Minneapolis, or...

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 5, 2008 11:36 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

The Caribbean For

All I care as long as we’re not paying him.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Nov 5, 2008 11:49 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

This is scary. GMDM isn't using Beene Philosophy he is using my philosophy

This is my comment for a lineup in July
A lineup with Jacobs DDJ-CF
Aviles-SS
Butler DH
Dunn RF
Guillen LF
Gordon 3b
Jacobs 1b
Buck C
Callaspo 2b
This wouldn’t be the rangiest OF so that might present troubles but would definitely provide alot of power

Every fight is a food fight when you’re a cannibal.
— Demetri Martin

by kcscoliny on Jul 27, 2008 7:45 PM PDT actions 0 recs

If KC lands Dunn my July 27 Dream lineup of balls flying out of the stadium might come true with the exception of Olivo over Buck which I was in favor of prior to July anyway. Hey Glass you can pay me $500k less I’ll get the job done.

It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.

by kcscoliny on Nov 6, 2008 10:34 AM EST   0 recs

Nice to have you back, kcscoliny

I was commenting a week or two ago during the “Gutierrez for Teahen” brouhaha that it was too bad you weren’t around for it.

I know you’re to busy to respond right now, since I’m pretty sure you’re signing a $8.00/hr contract to GM the Royals, though.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 6, 2008 11:55 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

No Adam Dunn
Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star talked to Royals GM Dayton Moore, who suggested he might not be able to do much more this winter due to payroll limitations. After arbitration raises, the Royals should be close to their $60MM budget. So don’t look for any big free agent signings unless a player is moved to create payroll room.

All the hoping during the season and after the season and all we fans are gonna get is 60MM with a newly redone stadium. David Glass should be dragged to the nearest firing squad next time he is in KC.

It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.

by kcscoliny on Nov 6, 2008 12:37 PM EST   0 recs

Don't you remember my prediction?

Teahen is going to hit 28-37 HRs next year. Problem solved.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 6, 2008 12:44 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

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